End in sight for Nadine; 96L no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on October 01, 2012

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Never-ending Tropical Storm Nadine hit its peak intensity of 90 mph on Sunday afternoon, but is now steadily weakening as it encounters cool 22 - 23°C waters. Nadine is responsible for these cool waters, as the storm passed over the same location earlier in its life and mixed the cool waters to the surface. Nadine will have accumulated 19 days as a tropical cyclone later today, but the end is in sight. Nadine will be over waters no warmer than 24°C this week, and wind shear will increase to 30 knots by Wednesday. The HWRF model shows Nadine dissipating on Thursday as it moves through the Azores Islands; the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will pass through the Azores on Thursday as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds, then dissipate on Friday. If Nadine lasts until Wednesday evening, it will become one of the five longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclones of all-time. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms; I am counting Nadine's 24-hour stint as a subtropical storm as it being a tropical cyclone.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:53 am EDT Sunday, September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

96L off the coast of Africa no threat to land
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa over the weekend (Invest 96L) has a moderate amount of spin and a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. The storm is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is predicted to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday. The atmosphere surrounding 96L is fairly moist, and the disturbance does have a good degree of model support for becoming a tropical depression by late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. 96L is likely to get pulled northwards by a large trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic late this week, and should not be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TomballTXPride:

I tasted Nadine.
Considering its a female name this doesn't sound right in my head...Lol but I know what you mean.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

I tasted Nadine.

Taste like chicken or fish?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting Grothar:


I don't even want to go to France, why would Nadine?

I want to; I've never been to Europe.

T# are not out yet, but I'm thinking it will stay at T3.5/3.5.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Hmm... two outliers now. I thought there was only one.
The funny thing is, BAMD thinks Nadine will make landfall in France!


I don't even want to go to France, why would Nadine?
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Turns out the high they were forecasting of only 49 was just a glitch..just got me excited for nothing..
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a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

Good morning. First round of rain just missed us but it looks like a lot more chances to come over the next couple of days or so. We did get almost .25" yesterday morning.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
Quoting Grothar:

Hmm... two outliers now. I thought there was only one.
The funny thing is, BAMD thinks Nadine will make landfall in France!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm going to miss Nadine when it finally is gone for good.


For a second I though I was looking at a new roller coaster plan, jk. Nadine has done loops and curves and everything she could and I'm just about done with her.

I have to go to school, bye everyone.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
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I wrote a blog on Nadine, 96L, and the pattern changes ahead, check it out.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm going to miss Nadine when it finally is gone for good.


Me too. I wonder if Nadine will find a way again to escape the trough.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
During the upcoming 2012-13 winter season The Weather Channel will name noteworthy winter storms.



Good idea?????


Kind of ridiculous, but fun, for sure. I know the Great Lakes region often have crazy enough storms to be named, some with hurricane-force winds and precipitation, so might as well name them, too, I guess?

They're all better than "Snowmaggeddon" or "SnowMyGod"
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Quoting AussieStorm:
During the upcoming 2012-13 winter season The Weather Channel will name noteworthy winter storms.



Good idea?????


With all the Greek names I'm surprised they pick "Saturn" over "Sparta".
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I'm going to miss Nadine when it finally is gone for good.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nadine is becoming better organized...again. What's new?

She wants to be remember as the most resilent cyclones ever.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:

Wow, those sound brutal compared to Atlantic named storms.

I'm particular found of Khan, after all we have had a Hurricane Kirk.

Winter Storm Khaaannnnn.


LOL indeed. They're obviously trying to have some fun with that. I dunno if it's a good idea though, as someone said, naming things could get out of hand! Hopefully will just stay their little thing and not catch on beyond. Yes, though, some serious sounding names! But what if the worst of the winter storm ended up being Nemo?! Kids would never be able to watch the movie the same way again! LOL
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96L is now up to 70% and likely to become Oscar.

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting AussieStorm:


She's been an impressive fighter.

She isn't giving up until the end, she could possibly strengthen a little.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nadine is becoming better organized...again. What's new?



She's been an impressive fighter.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Draco sounds very threatening for a winter storm system.

There are some names that I won't be able to take seriously though like Nemo and Rocky.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Nadine is becoming better organized...again. What's new?

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Quoting AussieStorm:
During the upcoming 2012-13 winter season The Weather Channel will name noteworthy winter storms.



Good idea?????

Draco sounds very threatening for a winter storm system.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
During the upcoming 2012-13 winter season The Weather Channel will name noteworthy winter storms.



Good idea?????

Wow, those sound brutal compared to Atlantic named storms.

I'm particular found of Khan, after all we have had a Hurricane Kirk.

Winter Storm Khaaannnnn.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


How is it possible that this May invest was not Alberto????
I hope it's classified in post analysis... lots of work for NHC after season's over

It did not sustain convection for a sufficient period of time.
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Evening, Aussie. I don't know about the storms. They do name some in Europe, I think if there is a death maybe? Been a while since I lived there. But it will take getting used to here.

Everyone have a great Tuesday!
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Quoting AussieStorm:
During the upcoming 2012-13 winter season The Weather Channel will name noteworthy winter storms.



Good idea?????

Well that just gave me a good idea for a blog in the future. My opinion on this is that it may begin to go too far with naming systems but we will see how it turns out.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
watching clouds moving into the windwards and leewards its convection could increase as they move into the carib.
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During the upcoming 2012-13 winter season The Weather Channel will name noteworthy winter storms.



Good idea?????
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


How is it possible that this May invest was not Alberto????
I hope it's classified in post analysis... lots of work for NHC after season's over

Anyone think 90L in feburary could be reassessed as a depression.
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Why's the NHC so confident about Nadine being catched by that trough?

Excuse me I ask, but I haven't kept attention during the last two or three days but the last I remember from before was the NHC saying that the trough would dig down to about 30°N. And actually that's not much to the south of where Nadine is at the moment.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Nadine looks to be making an attempt at an eyewall:


Good morning MA, Nadine has another burst of life in her and it will be interesting to see if she can possibly strengthen, hold strength, or weaken.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Good morning. Nadine looks to be making an attempt at an eyewall:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7733
Nadine has wrapped convection back around in areas and the center has became more defined.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Morning, Largo. I think you're right. N and S Carolina have been getting more than their share the last couple of days.

Wxchaser97, we just dropped to 56, but we had our rain all weekend, hoping to dry out so we can take the kids out to recess.

Yeah hopefully you can dry out over there. This is the first rain in a little while here so I'm happy it's raining.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Morning, Largo. I think you're right. N and S Carolina have been getting more than their share the last couple of days.

Wxchaser97, we just dropped to 56, but we had our rain all weekend, hoping to dry out so we can take the kids out to recess.
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Good morning folks..guess there are going to be alot of these today.................................BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
605 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 900 AM EDT

* AT 603 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. LAW ENFORCEMENT ALSO REPORTED FLOODING IN SOME
PARTS OF THE CITY OF ANDERSON...PARTICULARLY NEAR HIGHWAY 81.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ANDERSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

TO REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER...CALL
TOLL FREE... 1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...AND LEAVE A MESSAGE
EXPLAINING THE EVENT AND THE APPROXIMATE ADDRESS WHERE IT OCCURRED.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, wxchaser97 and all others up this early and evening to others. Woke up to a beautiful cool 57 degrees here.

I woke up to a warm 54F low so far with cloudy skies and rain showers.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Good morning, wxchaser97 and all others up this early and evening to others. Woke up to a beautiful cool 57 degrees here.
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Good morning everyone, Nadine is still holding at 65mph and her satellite appearance looks a little better.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
ADT thinks Nadine is yet again getting ready to strengthen again. (Raw T# is higher than the CI#)

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1003.9mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.2 3.3
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...NADINE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND MAINTAINING WINDS NEAR 65 MPH...
5:00 AM AST Tue Oct 2
Location: 34.5°N 38.1°W
Moving: ESE at 7 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
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469. 7544
looks like our cuba blob wants to get bigger at this hour hmmmmm as it moves due north
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6749
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm okay. Yourself?
bored but good.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.