End in sight for Nadine; 96L no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on October 01, 2012

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Never-ending Tropical Storm Nadine hit its peak intensity of 90 mph on Sunday afternoon, but is now steadily weakening as it encounters cool 22 - 23°C waters. Nadine is responsible for these cool waters, as the storm passed over the same location earlier in its life and mixed the cool waters to the surface. Nadine will have accumulated 19 days as a tropical cyclone later today, but the end is in sight. Nadine will be over waters no warmer than 24°C this week, and wind shear will increase to 30 knots by Wednesday. The HWRF model shows Nadine dissipating on Thursday as it moves through the Azores Islands; the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will pass through the Azores on Thursday as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds, then dissipate on Friday. If Nadine lasts until Wednesday evening, it will become one of the five longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclones of all-time. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms; I am counting Nadine's 24-hour stint as a subtropical storm as it being a tropical cyclone.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:53 am EDT Sunday, September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

96L off the coast of Africa no threat to land
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa over the weekend (Invest 96L) has a moderate amount of spin and a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. The storm is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is predicted to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday. The atmosphere surrounding 96L is fairly moist, and the disturbance does have a good degree of model support for becoming a tropical depression by late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. 96L is likely to get pulled northwards by a large trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic late this week, and should not be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TomballTXPride:


Maybe so, but I'll tell you one thing: The demand for bacon won't ever decrease. ;)
A couple of thoughts about bacon:

There are two food groups... "Bacon", and "not bacon".

Bacon - it is what's for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.
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Thanks for the scoop on 96L Dr. Masters. I cannot tell from all the blurry smears on the Goes East Satt loop what is going on that that part of the Atlantic......... :)
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13. Skyepony (Mod)
The drought induced bacon shortage maybe more like a price hike than a shortage..or so the spin here. Since a 10% price hike is expected, seems supply is expected to be less.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37820
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NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center

The government of Portugal has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Azores. This means tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area, in this case within 48 to 72 hours.
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10. Skyepony (Mod)
Nadine..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37820
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LinkCaribbean water vapor loop
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Thanks for the update Dr. Masters!
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thanks for update doc
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Thanks for the update.
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Thank you Dr. Masters
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5842
Quoting calkevin77:


Looks like a line of storms will be coming through your area today. Hopefully it gets there before that heat index starts climbing :)


Yes I know just as I typed my last entry I got an update on the temp and heat index

Millen, GA
Temp:81
Feels Like:85
Dewpoint:72
Humidity:74%
Winds:SSE 4.6MPH
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Look like 96L will be another "fish" storm.

No news about Ex-Typhoon Jelawat? And idea what that anomaly was in her eye at her peak?


Quoting ncstorm:
Just remember, if you think Hurricane season is dead..the most intense hurricane to ever form in the atlantic did it in October..W...l..L..M..AAAAAA!



Also remember this one...

Hurricane Tomas.



Goodnight all. Stay well, Stay safe :-)
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
513 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-012115 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
513 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.


...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND GRADUALLY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING FREQUENT
DEADLY LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAPABLE OF CAUSING MINOR FLOODING.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

JELSEMA



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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