End in sight for Nadine; 96L no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on October 01, 2012

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Never-ending Tropical Storm Nadine hit its peak intensity of 90 mph on Sunday afternoon, but is now steadily weakening as it encounters cool 22 - 23°C waters. Nadine is responsible for these cool waters, as the storm passed over the same location earlier in its life and mixed the cool waters to the surface. Nadine will have accumulated 19 days as a tropical cyclone later today, but the end is in sight. Nadine will be over waters no warmer than 24°C this week, and wind shear will increase to 30 knots by Wednesday. The HWRF model shows Nadine dissipating on Thursday as it moves through the Azores Islands; the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will pass through the Azores on Thursday as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds, then dissipate on Friday. If Nadine lasts until Wednesday evening, it will become one of the five longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclones of all-time. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms; I am counting Nadine's 24-hour stint as a subtropical storm as it being a tropical cyclone.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:53 am EDT Sunday, September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

96L off the coast of Africa no threat to land
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa over the weekend (Invest 96L) has a moderate amount of spin and a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. The storm is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is predicted to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday. The atmosphere surrounding 96L is fairly moist, and the disturbance does have a good degree of model support for becoming a tropical depression by late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. 96L is likely to get pulled northwards by a large trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic late this week, and should not be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Blob south of Cuba is still doing interesting spins.

Farmers are doing OK with this drought thanks to rising food prices, making their lower yields pay off.
Of course the ones with crop insurance are doing better.

There are plenty of non-edible sources of ethanol if people will just develop them. Kick up the algae production, heck just harvest the blooms we already have where we DONT want them.
How about some firmentation vats for the invasive brazillian pepper plants and other rapidly reproducing invasive plants.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1559
IT at 1009.8 mb in WPB

Humidity63%
Wind SpeedSW 21 G 28 mph
Barometer29.82 in (1009.8 mb)
Dewpoint73°F (23°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index94°F (34°C)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4424
Quoting Hurricane1956:
A lot of rain coming down here in Miami,don't understand the NWS prediction of only 1-2 inches for the next 3 days,looking at the amazing blob of moisture coming North from Cuba,and it might develop into something of a tropical nature.


NWS in Miami is typically pretty conservative, most of the summer Maimi has had 20 to 40% rain chances for most of the rainy season in the extended forecast but they've had something like 80 inches for the yearly total so far.
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WPB!!:) rain off and on all day
Wind SpeedSW 21 G 28 mph!!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4424
A lot of rain coming down here in Miami,don't understand the NWS prediction of only 1-2 inches for the next 3 days,looking at the amazing blob of moisture coming North from Cuba,and it might develop into something of a tropical nature.
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96L up to 40%.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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Western Caribbean looks a little more higlighted than before.

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I didnt realize it but Mesoscale Discussion 2012 was issued yesterday.
Mesoscale Discussion 2012

I don't know why I find that so interesting ,lol


Temps and Dewpoints have greatly separated themselves over Eastern Alabama, and western Georgia, up to a 10 degree separation, and this has led to surface based capes of 1500 already and some 500 mid level capes, so everything is definitely on the uptick if a storm wants to form, helicities up to 3 meters still pushing 300 on the alabama and georgia border with high supercell parameters for a lowtopped mini supercell structure.
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Rain rain rain and rain!!!:)

Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4424
Nadine better dies now. Been around for too long. BUT THE WORST IN THAT... IS SHE IS HELPING 96L TO TURN NORTH AND BE A BORING FISH. I'm Bored with that.
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58. 7544
looks like fl going to get a lot of rain if the cuba blob holds together looks like it will as it heads north to so fl but might be deleyed does it have a chance to form anytime soon? as the blob over western cuba heads into the gom then the front will push it back east ? tia
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Weather Underground Forecast for Monday, October 01, 2012.

Areas of active weather will persist for Europe as another low pressure system moves in from the northwest on Monday. A strong low pressure system spinning over Iceland will continue moving northeastward and into the Norwegian Sea. This system will push a cold front eastward, which will extend from Norway and Sweden, over Denmark and the Netherlands, reaching into Germany and France by evening. Expect widespread rain showers to develop along this front throughout the day, while onshore flow along the back side of this system will trigger more scattered showers across the British Isles. London will be overcast and rainy with highs in the upper 70s(F)/ mid-20s(C), while Dublin will also be rainy but cooler with highs in the mid-50s(F)/ mid-teens(C). Oslo and Amsterdam will be partly cloudy with a chance of showers and highs in the mid-60s(F)/ upper teens(C). Paris and Munich will be cloudy with a chance of showers throughout the day and highs near 70(F)/ 21(C).

To the south, a trough of low pressure spinning over the Mediterranean Sea will slowly move eastward over Italy and through the Adriatic Sea on Monday. This will pull moisture in from the south, triggering showers and thunderstorms across the central Mediterranean countries. Rome will see a chance of thunderstorms with highs near 80(F)/ 27(C), while Athens remains sunny and dry with highs near 90(F)/ 32(C). Elsewhere, high pressure builds over eastern Europe, maintaining dry and mild conditions.
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
OK, corn that goes to ethanol production would be fed to animals, not humans. Most animals can then be fed the brewers grains left over after the ethanol is extracted, so the argument taking food away from humans isn't really viable. That said, increasing demand and making grains more expensive is valid.
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Caribbean Funktop

Link
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
mama went thru hazel back when,, said it was not fun,, it was in october,, i think,, this political discussion , with 13 year olds. wow,, WOW JUST WOW,, this used to be a fun place,,
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Thanks Dr. Masters, I see Nadine is a TS.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting jeffs713:

A lot of this "shortage" of feed wouldn't be there if we weren't burning food in our cars... Ethanol has less energy per gallon than low-grade gasoline... yet it is mandated we have 10% ethanol in our gas...


There's a discussion about biofuel in Germany and whole Europe, too:

"Biofuels have been heavily criticized for directing crops into European fuel tanks instead of hungry mouths around the world. But oil giant Shell still sees a bright future for the "green" gasoline.

The gasoline product E10, a biofuel that contains 10 percent ethanol, is available at German petrol stations. But few drivers are buying it. Many are worried that the gas may be causing a global catastrophe." More


And speaking of Europe: There is a really funny little youtube-video, produced by a greek film maker about the european love affairs and quarrels esp. Germany - Greece and its cliches. I've posted it on my blog, but you may also watch it directly here: Youtube-Link. It's in English, btw, so enjoy.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:


Maybe so, but I'll tell you one thing: The demand for bacon won't ever decrease. ;)


It may not be true. I have recently contracted this allergy to all non-primate mammal meat. Only knew what it was since June, and now I cannot eat any more beef, pork, lamb, venison, or anything containing certain by-products, such as gelatine, cheese made with animal rennet, etc... The number of known cases is growing extremely fast in the S.E. USA and Australia. UK, has some cases reported now too I guess. Our lack of a hard frost last winter may have led to more ticks this spring or something. There is no known cure or blocker at this point, simply avoidance. It's called the Alpha Gal Allergy, you can google it, but here is an article from CNN. I highly recommend using DEET, something that I would never have said prior to getting this allergy.

Link
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It looks as though Nadine is trying to wrap around again, some convection is reaching over her centre from the northeast, but she doesn't have that much time.

I say she'll pull off at least maintaining intensity for now... it any storm can pull off defying death... it's Nadine.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It looks like no wet MJO is comming to the Caribbean/Atlantic anytime soon.


Damn year
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Quoting JLPR2:


Just a TW, though there is some 850mb vort.


Good chance that if it doesn't develop it will reach the islands.


I hope so, I need my fix lol. I'm lacking weather this year.
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:


It looks like no wet MJO is comming to the Caribbean/Atlantic anytime soon.
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Thanks Dr. Masters.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31585
44. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting jeffs713:

A lot of this "shortage" of feed wouldn't be there if we weren't burning food in our cars... Ethanol has less energy per gallon than low-grade gasoline... yet it is mandated we have 10% ethanol in our gas... The refineries that make ethanol get a tax credit. So do the farmers selling to those refineries. This makes sense... how?

Just sayin' (and please note this was not a comment directed at either party, or towards GW/CC... more of a comment at the idiotic things politicians do)


Good point. Here's more on how it's affecting those CA dairy farmers. It's not gonna be they same Grapes of Wrath as before..

According to a New York Times op-ed by UC-Davis economics professor Colin A. Carter and Hoover Institution fellow Henry I. Miller in July, 40% of the U.S. corn crop goes to ethanol production mandated by government regulations. They believe that "The combination of the drought and American ethanol policy will lead in many parts of the world to widespread inflation, more hunger, less food security, slower economic growth and political instability, especially in poor countries."

The heavy diversion of the corn crop to ethanol production is also currently contributing to dairy farm bankruptcies. Gosia Wosniacka should have incorporated that sad reality, and U.S. EPA's failure to this point to at least temporarily waive the ethanol mandate (permanently abandoning ill-advised government market intervention would obviously be a better idea), into her AP story.


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תודה על העדכון
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
691. weatherbro 11:08 PM EDT on September 30, 2012

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Fall Begins, But Cool Weather Still Off in the Distance for South Florida

Trust me... That's gonna change next week according to Larry Cosgrove and many other major mets!!!

You better be right this time weatherbro!!!



Well last time the Bermuda Ridge was stronger, causing the long wave trough axis to settle too far west to bring a front through your area. Next week the North Atlantic Ridge should be weaker and further east to enable even South Florida to get a taste of Fall!
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Quoting CaribBoy:


Why isn't this one labeled INVEST 96!!!!!! Would be much more interesting!!


Just a TW, though there is some 850mb vort.


Good chance that if it doesn't develop it will reach the islands.
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Quoting TexasRGV:



.......but the QUANTITY demanded will if the price increases [/Econ nerd]


Bacon. Because the gold standard is overrated anyways. Time to invest in IHOP. Pay top dollar for your old gold and center cut :)
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Quoting HuracanTaino:
Any thoughts on the "blob" east of the Islands, at 10N, 47W ? Looks kind of interesting, even though needs persistant and less shear for anything to spin...I think !!


Why isn't this one labeled INVEST 96!!!!!! Would be much more interesting!!
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Speaking of throwing away food,..and pigs.

One should see the wet food waste that comes out of the 4 Main Lines at MCAS, Cherry Points main Dining Facility alone.

The Pig Farmers collect it twice a day from the back docks.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Any thoughts on the "blob" east of the Islands, at 10N, 47W ? Looks kind of interesting, even though needs persistant and less shear for anything to spin...I think !!
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Quoting TomballTXPride:


Maybe so, but I'll tell you one thing: The demand for bacon won't ever decrease. ;)



.......but the QUANTITY demanded will if the price increases [/Econ nerd]
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It's alive, alive! XD

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Quoting seer2012:
The GOES-12 image(So. America)covers all the way to Africa with a clear picture.


Thank You.
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Quoting Patrap:
..And now, the end is near, Nadine face's, the final curtain..

Ty,

tyvm


:/

talk about long goodbyes...
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..And now, the end is near, Nadine face's, the final curtain..

Ty,

tyvm


:/
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Quoting Skyepony:


I kinda think they are trying to ease the food panic. Bacon can be an inflammatory subject.

Odd things are happening with this drought & food. They failed to pass any Farm Bill with the old now expiring... Small farms are going down in this drought, it's looking more like the little farmers will suffer. We are feeding extra candy to dairy cows because there isn't the corn. The level of creativity as to what is cow food skyrocketed. At the same time in CA with the price of feed rising the state won't raise the price of milk.

In the 1930s the drought then helped banks, politics & big AG shape food policies & how farming was done in this county.."The Grapes of Wrath" is nigh once again..

A lot of this "shortage" of feed wouldn't be there if we weren't burning food in our cars... Ethanol has less energy per gallon than low-grade gasoline... yet it is mandated we have 10% ethanol in our gas... The refineries that make ethanol get a tax credit. So do the farmers selling to those refineries. This makes sense... how?

Just sayin' (and please note this was not a comment directed at either party, or towards GW/CC... more of a comment at the idiotic things politicians do)
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26. Skyepony (Mod)
96L from the east (EUMETSAT).

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37486
25. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Does anyone remember the name of the new satellite product that refreshed every minute?


SRSO (Super Rapid Scan Operations)?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37486
24. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Maybe so, but I'll tell you one thing: The demand for bacon won't ever decrease. ;)


I kinda think they are trying to ease the food panic. Bacon can be an inflammatory subject.

Odd things are happening with this drought & food. They failed to pass any Farm Bill with the old now expiring... Small farms are going down in this drought, it's looking more like the little farmers will suffer. We are feeding extra candy to dairy cows because there isn't the corn. The level of creativity as to what is cow food skyrocketed. At the same time in CA with the price of feed rising the state won't raise the price of milk.

In the 1930s the drought then helped banks, politics & big AG shape food policies & how farming was done in this county.."The Grapes of Wrath" is nigh once again..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37486
Quoting JNCali:
Lots going on in the So Carrib..

All being fed by upper divergence. Very little convergence, and no lower-to-mid-level vort to speak of.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thanks for the scoop on 96L Dr. Masters. I cannot tell from all the blurry smears on the Goes East Satt loop what is going on that that part of the Atlantic......... :)
The GOES-12 image(So. America)covers all the way to Africa with a clear picture.
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Lots going on in the So Carrib..
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Does anyone remember the name of the new satellite product that refreshed every minute?
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19. Skyepony (Mod)
Drought also has Kansas irked with the Federal Law that requires them to release reservoirs water & such to the Missouri River so barge traffic can travel.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37486
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Maybe so, but I'll tell you one thing: The demand for bacon won't ever decrease. ;)
A couple of thoughts about bacon:

There are two food groups... "Bacon", and "not bacon".

Bacon - it is what's for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.