End in sight for Nadine; 96L no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on October 01, 2012

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Never-ending Tropical Storm Nadine hit its peak intensity of 90 mph on Sunday afternoon, but is now steadily weakening as it encounters cool 22 - 23°C waters. Nadine is responsible for these cool waters, as the storm passed over the same location earlier in its life and mixed the cool waters to the surface. Nadine will have accumulated 19 days as a tropical cyclone later today, but the end is in sight. Nadine will be over waters no warmer than 24°C this week, and wind shear will increase to 30 knots by Wednesday. The HWRF model shows Nadine dissipating on Thursday as it moves through the Azores Islands; the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will pass through the Azores on Thursday as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds, then dissipate on Friday. If Nadine lasts until Wednesday evening, it will become one of the five longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclones of all-time. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms; I am counting Nadine's 24-hour stint as a subtropical storm as it being a tropical cyclone.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:53 am EDT Sunday, September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

96L off the coast of Africa no threat to land
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa over the weekend (Invest 96L) has a moderate amount of spin and a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. The storm is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is predicted to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday. The atmosphere surrounding 96L is fairly moist, and the disturbance does have a good degree of model support for becoming a tropical depression by late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. 96L is likely to get pulled northwards by a large trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic late this week, and should not be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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118. flsky
Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:
Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore
AT 304 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR ADRIAN...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF CONWAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. #SCwx


Gonna try to see what I can pick up on RadioRefernce


So, where's Adrian. Please cite more completely.
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1956
Would love to see an OMAR like setup



VERY LOW PRESSURES IN THE CARIBBEAN.
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116. Skyepony (Mod)
nrtiwlnvragn~ Yeah~ I just noticed that..
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115. Skyepony (Mod)
I was hoping they started the drifting to the east a little later than planned.. This might be bad..


*Topic: *GOES-14 (GOES-East) possible data degradation Oct 01, 2012

*Date/Time**Issued: *Oct 01, 2012 1903 UTC*****
*

*Product(s) or Data Impacted:*GOES-13 (GOES-East) Imager Data and
Products**

*Date/Time of Initial Impact:*Oct 01, 2012****J-day 275 @ 1732 UTC*
*

*Date/Time of Expected End:*TBD****

*Length of Event:*TBD*
*

*Details/Specifics of Change:*ESPC is noticing some degradation on the
GOES-14 EAST images. ESPC is currently investigating this situation.
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Barbamz--your video was super funny!
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Quoting Skyepony:


GOES-14 is moving east right now for a better look view of the Atlantic. This is an expected outage.

GOES-13 is still not working.


Don't think it is/was expected:

NOUS72 KNES 011908
ADMNES
SUBJECT: ADMINISTRATIVE: GOES-14 (GOES-EAST) POSSIBLE DATA
*TOPIC: *GOES-14 (GOES-EAST) POSSIBLE DATA DEGRADATION OCT 01, 2012

*DATE/TIME**ISSUED: *OCT 01, 2012 1903 UTC*****
*

*PRODUCT(S) OR DATA IMPACTED:*GOES-13 (GOES-EAST) IMAGER DATA AND
PRODUCTS**

*DATE/TIME OF INITIAL IMPACT:*OCT 01, 2012****J-DAY 275 @ 1732 UTC*
*

*DATE/TIME OF EXPECTED END:*TBD****

*LENGTH OF EVENT:*TBD*
*

*DETAILS/SPECIFICS OF CHANGE:*ESPC IS NOTICING SOME DEGRADATION ON THE
GOES-14 EAST IMAGES. ESPC IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THIS SITUATION.

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When considering the pros and cons of using ethanol as a fuel additive, you have to consider many, many things- how much fuel needed to produce the fertilizer? plant and harvest the crop? process into ethanol? tranport to a refinery? how much CO2 is released, as compared to gasoline? and on and on. Here's a Wiki article that seems pretty decent:

Link

IMHO, I think that there just isn't enough return of energy from corn to make it a viable fuel right now, but that may change when the technology develops further. Maybe new sources of ethanol may provide the energy return we need. Meanwhile, we have to find the balance between feeding more humans than the planet can sustain unless we use so much energy we endanger our own future, and finding viable alternatives that will allow us continue our energy intensive lifestyles. Good luck to all of us with that.
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Quoting Skyepony:


GOES-14 is moving east right now for a better look view of the Atlantic. This is an expected outage.

GOES-13 is still not working.


Thank you very much appreciate the infomation
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110. VR46L
Nadine is rather far north now

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Quoting Skyepony:


GOES-14 is moving east right now for a better look view of the Atlantic. This is an expected outage.

GOES-13 is still not working.


Looks like there is still no ETA for 13 to come back online. Interesting article on 14 and 15.
Link
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The Atlantic is in the dark again. I'm really really really bored with 2012
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106. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting elvette:


Looks like the sat images problem is not resolved yet...


GOES-14 is moving east right now for a better look view of the Atlantic. This is an expected outage.

GOES-13 is still not working.
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Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:
Look who got a little love from Jim Cantore today...

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore
Weather Undergrounds @wxchaser97's blog on 5 Long Lived Atlantic tropical systems: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/wxchaser97/commen t.html?entrynum=39 … #Tropics #Nadine


Awesome!!! He will love that!!
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WWAY NEWS
STORMTRACK 3 Update (3:10 PM) A TORNADO WARNING remains in effect for Horry County. At 3:05 PM, South Carolina law enforcement reported a possible tornado 7 miles north of Conway, moving NE at 5 mph. Locations in the warned area include Bayboro and Allsbrook. See custom radar displays at wwaytv3.com
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST MON OCT 1 2012

PRC013-027-039-065-073-141-012200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0365.121001T1858Z-121001T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CIALES PR-HATILLO PR-JAYUYA PR-UTUADO PR-ARECIBO PR-CAMUY PR-
258 PM AST MON OCT 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...HATILLO...JAYUYA...UTUADO...ARECIBO AND CAMUY

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 258 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 600 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1827 6650 1819 6658 1826 6680 1831 6683
1834 6683 1835 6685 1842 6689 1849 6684

$$

AAS
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Caribbean blob

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26118
Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore
AT 304 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR ADRIAN...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF CONWAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. #SCwx


Gonna try to see what I can pick up on RadioRefernce
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Look who got a little love from Jim Cantore today...

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore
Weather Undergrounds @wxchaser97's blog on 5 Long Lived Atlantic tropical systems: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/wxchaser97/commen t.html?entrynum=39 … #Tropics #Nadine
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This has trouble written all over it... Tropical systems and Vietnam don't mix very well.



earlier models from CMC had it going towards the Philippines..
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Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TROPICAL STORM GAEMI (T1220)
3:00 AM JST October 2 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Gaemi (1002 hPa) located at 17.0N 114.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in the northwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 16.3N 115.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 16.0N 115.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.5N 115.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

???????????????


Looks like the sat images problem is not resolved yet...
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Tornado warned storm in SC has a nice hook on it... We'll probably see more development today.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779

???????????????
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Topic: GOES-14 East Drift Start Maneuver is scheduled for October
1, 2012
Date/Time Issued: October 1, 2012 1110 UTC

Product(s) or Data Impacted: GOES-14 Imager and Sounder Data

Date/Time of Initial Impact: October 1, 2012 1545 UTC

Date/Time of Expected End: October 1, 2012 1609 UTC (maneuver);
Drift will continue eastward at 0.90 degrees per day

Details/Specifics of Change: In order to support users with
better data during the ongoing GOES-13 anomaly recovery, a
GOES-14 East Drift Start Maneuver will be performed today,
Monday, October 1, 2012, at 1545 UTC. GOES-14 is currently
positioned at 105 degrees west, and upon the maneuver, the
eastward longitudinal drift will be initiated. GOES-14 will
drift 0.90 degrees per day to the East towards the location of
GOES-13 at 75 degrees West.

Final location of GOES-14 is dependent upon the ongoing recovery
of GOES-13. During this transition, direct readout users can
continue to receive GOES-14 data via the GOES-13 GVAR broadcast
stream from 75 degrees West, and will not have to repoint their
antennas to GOES-14. GOES-13 imager and sounder remain out of
service at this time.

Location of frame boundaries of the satellite scanning sectors
will be adjusted every Wednesday at the 1900 UTC housekeeping
period. This will cause a one time shift in the image and
sounding frames each Wednesday. GINI and Remapper output will
be monitored to ensure optimal coverage of the CONUS for users of
AWIPS and of the SATEPSDIST servers within ESPC. Image Navigation
and Registration (INR) is expected to remain within specification
during this drift period. For NWS operations, during this time
period, RSO (Rapid Scan Operations) will be available. No SRSO
(Super Rapid Scan Operations) will be available.

On October 1, 2012 the following schedule will be employed to
support maneuver operations:


GOES-14 East Drift Start Maneuver Schedule begins at 1545 UTC on
October 1, 2012.

From 1545 UTC through 1606 UTC -- GOES-14 No Scan Operations
There will be no GOES-15 (GOES-West) Full Disk (30 minute)
Imaging.

There will be no recovery schedule for this maneuver.

1609 UTC -- GOES-14 Routine Scan Operations Resume.

Please note: Since post-maneuver attitude performance is expected
to be nominal, a special recovery schedule is not required, and
the 6-hour INR (Image Navigation Registration) recovery period
will be supported by Routine schedule.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST MON OCT 1 2012

PRC011-081-083-093-097-099-131-012145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0364.121001T1849Z-121001T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-LARES PR-MARICAO PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-
MAYAGUEZ PR-
249 PM AST MON OCT 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...LARES...MARICAO...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS AND
MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 249 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 545 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1831 6703 1826 6686 1816 6690 1825 6710
1826 6720 1833 6711

$$

AAS
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This has trouble written all over it... Tropical systems and Vietnam don't mix very well.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
18z Best Track for 96L.

AL, 96, 2012100118, , BEST, 0, 124N, 332W, 25, 1008, LO
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wimpy watch:
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Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI (T1219)
3:00 AM JST October 2 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Marianas Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Maliksi (994 hPa) located at 19.5N 144.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
375 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 22.2N 140.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
48 HRS: 27.0N 140.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
72 HRS: 35.4N 145.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East of Japan
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Largo's record low is 22 °F (−6 °C), recorded on December 13, 1962. Largo's record high is 100 °F (38 °C), recorded on July 5, 1995.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
Quoting kwgirl:
Yeah we can get pretty cold. But we can also stay relatively warm during the winter. Relatively, meaning, to visitors it is warm but the Conchs put on sweaters when the temps drop to 70 and below. I think we would all be happy if it stayed 80 degrees year round.
I like it best when the humidity goes away,heat i can take..thats why winter for me is our best few months.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
What the hell is going on again with GOES 13. It's really looking PARANORMAL to me.
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Quoting LargoFl:
LOL way down there you might get 50 degree's come January?..I was just telling my neighbor who is complaining about this heat..we here get 10 months of full blast summer LOL
Yeah we can get pretty cold. But we can also stay relatively warm during the winter. Relatively, meaning, to visitors it is warm but the Conchs put on sweaters when the temps drop to 70 and below. I think we would all be happy if it stayed 80 degrees year round.
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Oh man it gets Bone chilling in Orlando for winter huh.............If you travel to Florida in winter, Orlando temperatures can dip to near 50 degrees, so a sweater might be worth the baggage space. In summer, be sure to hydrate and dress accordingly if outdoors - it's a perfect time to hit the water park....................LOL gotta love it huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
Quoting kwgirl:
HEY! You forgot the Keys:) Good afternoon everyone.
LOL way down there you might get 50 degree's come January?..I was just telling my neighbor who is complaining about this heat..we here get 10 months of full blast summer LOL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
this invest went up 20% since early this morning..now up to 40%.............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
Quoting LargoFl:
SO when CAN we in Florida see 50 degree's you ask???.........DATE OF FIRST LOW TEMPERATURE <= 50 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
YEAR
RECORDS
LOCATION EARLIEST LATEST AVERAGE BEGAN
CHIEFLAND 5 SE SEP 20 1981 NOV 06 1998 OCT 15 1956
INVERNESS 3 SE OCT 02 2001* NOV 21 1986 OCT 23 1948
BUSHNELL 2 E OCT 02 1984 NOV 14 2003 OCT 24 1948
WEEKI WACHEE OCT 02 2001* NOV 14 2003 OCT 20 1969
ST LEO SEP 22 1897 NOV 30 1958 OCT 31 1895
TARPON SPRINGS OCT 01 1920 DEC 05 1919 NOV 02 1892
TAMPA OCT 11 1906 DEC 15 1998* NOV 07 1890
ST PETERSBURG OCT 17 1943 JAN 02 1987 NOV 20 1915
PLANT CITY OCT 04 1929 NOV 25 1948 OCT 28 1893
LAKELAND OCT 10 2000 DEC 11 1958 NOV 02 1946
BARTOW OCT 01 1920 DEC 16 1998 NOV 02 1892
WINTER HAVEN OCT 14 1977 DEC 16 1998 NOV 06 1941
MOUNTAIN LAKE OCT 08 1987 DEC 05 1946 OCT 31 1935
PARRISH OCT 10 1976 DEC 16 1998 NOV 02 1958
SARASOTA-BRADENTON OCT 02 1920 DEC 04 1986 NOV 05 1911
MYAKKA RIVER ST PK OCT 08 1987 DEC 15 1998 NOV 01 1956
WAUCHULA 2 N OCT 10 2000 DEC 04 1986 NOV 01 1933
AVON PARK 2 W OCT 04 1929 DEC 12 1994 NOV 05 1902
ARCADIA OCT 01 1920 DEC 12 1994 NOV 01 1901
ARCHBOLD BIO STN OCT 09 1972 DEC 12 1994 OCT 29 1969
VENICE OCT 14 1977 DEC 12 1994 NOV 09 1956
PUNTA GORDA 4 ESE OCT 14 1977 JAN 02 1987 NOV 10 1965
FORT MYERS OCT 18 1977 JAN 16 1972 NOV 18 1902
HEY! You forgot the Keys:) Good afternoon everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting icmoore:
NWS Tampa Bay area

LARGE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
POISED TO BE ADVECTED NORTH OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PCPW VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25
INCHES OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH RICH TROPICAL AIRMASS AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN
LIKELY SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
IN THIS REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR 2
TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN EACH DAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THIS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MODELS
DO NOT HANDLE TROPICAL PLUMES ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTH ALL THAT
WELL...ESPECIALLY WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS. BUT PATTERN ON W/V IMAGERY
INDICATES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT SOMEWHERE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH DETAILS YET TO BE
DETERMINED.


I have to tell you, looking at the huge moisture laden clouds flowing past my house, someone is in for a real soaking alright, I got a nice couple of showers early this morning, nothing since, suns out bigtime by me,hopefully tonight I can get some more rain, ben dry for over a week now here.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
NWS Tampa Bay area

LARGE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
POISED TO BE ADVECTED NORTH OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH PCPW VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25
INCHES OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH RICH TROPICAL AIRMASS AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN
LIKELY SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
IN THIS REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR 2
TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN EACH DAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THIS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MODELS
DO NOT HANDLE TROPICAL PLUMES ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTH ALL THAT
WELL...ESPECIALLY WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS. BUT PATTERN ON W/V IMAGERY
INDICATES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT SOMEWHERE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH DETAILS YET TO BE
DETERMINED.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SO when CAN we in Florida see 50 degree's you ask???.........DATE OF FIRST LOW TEMPERATURE <= 50 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
YEAR
RECORDS
LOCATION EARLIEST LATEST AVERAGE BEGAN
CHIEFLAND 5 SE SEP 20 1981 NOV 06 1998 OCT 15 1956
INVERNESS 3 SE OCT 02 2001* NOV 21 1986 OCT 23 1948
BUSHNELL 2 E OCT 02 1984 NOV 14 2003 OCT 24 1948
WEEKI WACHEE OCT 02 2001* NOV 14 2003 OCT 20 1969
ST LEO SEP 22 1897 NOV 30 1958 OCT 31 1895
TARPON SPRINGS OCT 01 1920 DEC 05 1919 NOV 02 1892
TAMPA OCT 11 1906 DEC 15 1998* NOV 07 1890
ST PETERSBURG OCT 17 1943 JAN 02 1987 NOV 20 1915
PLANT CITY OCT 04 1929 NOV 25 1948 OCT 28 1893
LAKELAND OCT 10 2000 DEC 11 1958 NOV 02 1946
BARTOW OCT 01 1920 DEC 16 1998 NOV 02 1892
WINTER HAVEN OCT 14 1977 DEC 16 1998 NOV 06 1941
MOUNTAIN LAKE OCT 08 1987 DEC 05 1946 OCT 31 1935
PARRISH OCT 10 1976 DEC 16 1998 NOV 02 1958
SARASOTA-BRADENTON OCT 02 1920 DEC 04 1986 NOV 05 1911
MYAKKA RIVER ST PK OCT 08 1987 DEC 15 1998 NOV 01 1956
WAUCHULA 2 N OCT 10 2000 DEC 04 1986 NOV 01 1933
AVON PARK 2 W OCT 04 1929 DEC 12 1994 NOV 05 1902
ARCADIA OCT 01 1920 DEC 12 1994 NOV 01 1901
ARCHBOLD BIO STN OCT 09 1972 DEC 12 1994 OCT 29 1969
VENICE OCT 14 1977 DEC 12 1994 NOV 09 1956
PUNTA GORDA 4 ESE OCT 14 1977 JAN 02 1987 NOV 10 1965
FORT MYERS OCT 18 1977 JAN 16 1972 NOV 18 1902
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA. THE BEST
RAIN RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM ABOUT 2 PM TO 8 PM. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED. STORMS WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTH AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.

EASTERLY OCEAN SWELLS AND OCCASIONAL ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
2 PM discussion of Caribbean.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N87W...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE HONDURAS COAST.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N TO 24N IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING ACROSS CUBA...BETWEEN
80W AND 95W IN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 83W AND 84W AND FROM 19N TO 21N
BETWEEN 80W AND 83W MOVING ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL NICARAGUA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL
WATERS OF EL SALVADOR.

NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING FROM 17N
TO 20N BETWEEN THE JAMAICA CHANNEL AND 80W. THE EARLIER STRONG
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS TAKING PLACE IN JAMAICA HAS ENDED AND
NOW IT IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN EXTREME OF THE ISLAND.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.
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it looks like NC/SC was added to the mix


11:30am update
...NC...
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
ENHANCE THE WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NC. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF
AIR MASS RECOVERY THAT WILL OCCUR IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/STRONG STORMS
DESPITE VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 10/01/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

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Anything happening with the Caribbean blob? Sure is raining in miami today.
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Rather interesting ... seems to quite an area to keep a close eye on in the Caribbean ..

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I see on the 6Z GFS that NC gets Snow!!
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Blob south of Cuba is still doing interesting spins.

Farmers are doing OK with this drought thanks to rising food prices, making their lower yields pay off.
Of course the ones with crop insurance are doing better.

There are plenty of non-edible sources of ethanol if people will just develop them. Kick up the algae production, heck just harvest the blooms we already have where we DONT want them.
How about some firmentation vats for the invasive brazillian pepper plants and other rapidly reproducing invasive plants.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.