A Jelawat mystery; moisture associated with TS Norman drenching Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2012

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Powerful Typhoon Jelawat is hammering Japan's Ryukyu Islands as the typhoon steams northeastwards towards Okinawa at 12 mph. Jelawat has weakened to a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and an increase in wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots. At 7 pm local time, the winds today at Shimoji Shima Island were 66 mph, gusting to 85 mph. Jelawat has dumped 308.5 mm (12.1") rain in 12 hours at Tarama Airport. Satellite loops and radar loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 33 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are in close agreement that Jelawat will pass over or very close to Okinawa, Japan, as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm or Category 1 typhoon on Sunday. Wind shear will continue to increase over Jelawat for the remainder of its life, causing a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Japan's southern Ryukyu Islands at 11:05 pm local time on September 28, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

A Jelawat mystery
Jelawat has had a classic appearance on satellite imagery during its long stint as a Super Typhoon, with a large symmetric eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. However, at two points in its life--for several hours on September 25 (Figure 2), and again near 08 UTC September 27--both visible and infrared satellite images showed a very odd boundary extending north-northwestwards from the northeast side of the eye for about 50 miles. I've never seen any such feature in a tropical cyclone, and am a loss to explain what is going on. The typhoon was not close enough to any land areas for this to be a topographic effect, and there wasn't any obvious dry air or significant wind shear that could have caused a perturbation like this.


Figure 2. High resolution visible (left) and infrared (right) satellite imagery of Super Typhoon Jelawat from the new Suomi VIIRS instrument, taken at 0431 UTC on September 25, 2012. At the time, Jelawat was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. A very odd line appears along the north side of the eye. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, Colorado State University.
Brian Tang

Nadine a hurricane again
Non-stop Nadine has regenerated to hurricane strength again, as the long-lived storm enters its 16th day of life. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next seven days, but moisture associated with Nadine has flowed eastwards over Spain, bringing heavy rains and flooding problems. The GFS model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure on Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die. The 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will hang around an extra two days, finally getting pulled northeastward over cold waters next Friday. Nadine is already in eighth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 2002: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Nadine, 2012: 16.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 8:30 am EDT Friday, September 28, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 70 mph, and would be declared a hurricane 3 hours later. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Norman forms near Baja, Mexico; associated moisture feeding heavy rains in Texas
Tropical Storm Norman has formed this morning near the tip of Baja, Mexico, and promises to be a potent rain-maker for Mexico and the Southern U.S. Norman's moisture will feed the formation of an extratropical storm that will form in South Texas on Saturday. The storm's center will potentially move over the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday, but the storm will probably not have enough time over water to convert to a tropical system. The storm will bring heavy flooding rains to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Flooding has already been observed in West Texas this morning. Midland-Odessa picked up 3.12” of rain so far today, making it the 3rd wettest September day on record. The wettest day in city history is August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.


Figure 4. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman is expected to surge eastwards and bring heavy rains to much of Texas and the North Gulf Coast. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

New African wave may develop next week
A tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Sunday will develop into a tropical depression by next Wednesday, predicts today's 06Z run of the NOGAPS model. The wave is predicted to recurve to the north more than 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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588. CaribBoy
7:05 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
As many of the Eastern Caribbean islands are enduring,September has been below normal on rainfall in Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands.Also September 2012 ranks as the first warmest on record.

.CLIMATE...SEP 2012 AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT WILL END AS THE WARMEST
SEP ON RECORD. SEP 2012 HAS NOW MOVED SOLELY INTO FIRST PLACE AND
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW WILL ONLY HELP
IN MOVING FURTHER APART FROM SEP 1995. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...SEP
2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE SECOND DRIEST SEP ON RECORD WITH A
TOTAL OF 1.66 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR. THE THIRD DRIEST SEP ON
RECORD IS 1987 WITH 1.73 INCHES AND FOURTH IS 2006 WITH 1.78
INCHES. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO PICKUP ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN BEFORE THE MONTH ENDS WHICH COULD ALTER THE CURRENT RANKS BUT
IT CAN BE SAID WITH DEFINITE CERTAINTY THAT SEP WILL END IN THE
TOP FIVE DRIEST SEPTEMBERS ON RECORD.

AT THE CYRIL E. KING ARPT IN ST. THOMAS...SEP 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS
AS THE DRIEST SEP ON RECORD WITH 0.92 INCHES OF RAIN. THE SECOND
DRIEST SEP ON RECORD WAS IN 1986 WITH 1.08 INCHES AND THIRD WAS 1987
WITH 1.42 INCHES. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO PICKUP ANOTHER QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHICH COULD ALTER THE CURRENT RANKS BUT IT CAN BE
SAID WITH DEFINITE CERTAINTY THAT SEP WILL END IN THE TOP THREE
DRIEST SEPTEMBERS ON RECORD.


What the hell is wrong with this year....!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5969
587. NCHurricane2009
5:58 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Good afternoon all...

Did my usual daily & detailed Atlantic blog update. I explain how Nadine could actually get stronger than the NHC shows...and also explain how the weather system over Texas and the southern US has come together. If something doesn't make sense in what I say...feel free to leave questions and or comments...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 443 Comments: 3618
586. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:55 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
585. muddertracker
5:54 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Pig Pooohey. It's amazing what a blonde, a motorcycle and an idiot can do to a football program.

Still raining in Cedar Park, TX.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2337
584. Barefootontherocks
5:48 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Nadine? Honey is dat u ?
Maybe she's out with Norman
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18377
583. bohonkweatherman
5:21 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Heavy rains around Midland, San Angelo and Abilene areas just to start with, father in law lives close to Abilene over 8 inches since yesterday and he said 6 to 10 inches in wide spread areas out there. That is awesome rains for that part of Texas, not that much around where I live but I am so happy some parts of Texas got these much needed rains.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
582. wxchaser97
5:19 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


On the Tropical Weather front,the 12z GFS doesn't develop anything thru the 15th.You still think that 1-2 more named storms will form during the rest of the season?

We still got a chance at that, a storm can form even without models showing it.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
581. wxchaser97
5:16 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
I wrote a new blog on Nadine, Norman, Jelawat, and my updated hurricane scale.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
580. Tropicsweatherpr
5:07 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:
Another trough comes rolling in at 372hrs, if the GFS is correct temps will be getting cooler for sure.


On the Tropical Weather front,the 12z GFS doesn't develop anything thru the 15th.You still think that 1-2 more named storms will form during the rest of the season?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14050
579. Grothar
4:56 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting Chicklit:


Grothar I think Patrap means bad news about the heavy moisture headed for areas still flooded from Isaac,Terrebonne and Plaquemines parishes in particular.

LinkGOM WV Loop


OH.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25391
578. Slamguitar
4:56 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
That wave that emerged from Africa is getting some spin going:

Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
577. Chicklit
4:56 PM GMT on September 29, 2012


It's amazing how dry the west Caribbean still is.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11180
576. wxchaser97
4:54 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Another trough comes rolling in at 372hrs, if the GFS is correct temps will be getting cooler for sure.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
575. Chicklit
4:49 PM GMT on September 29, 2012


Grothar I think Patrap means bad news about the heavy moisture headed for areas still flooded from Isaac,Terrebonne and Plaquemines parishes in particular.

LinkGOM WV Loop
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11180
574. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:46 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Based on the video and weather station reports, Jelawat was a good bit worse than Sanba for Okinawa, even though Sanba was a more intense typhoon. Winds in Naha peaked at 79 gusting to 107 mph during Jelawat. The island of Okinawa was in the right front quadrant of the storm this time.

The peak wind gust in that area was 137 mph according to The Weather Channel. Cannot remember the name of the island.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31514
573. Civicane49
4:40 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Long-lived Hurricane Nadine.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
572. Grothar
4:39 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting etxwx:


You are just all heart, Grothar. All heart... ;-)



Aw shucks.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25391
571. LostTomorrows
4:39 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
12z GFS 312 hours:



324:





Ew, I live under the centre of that.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
570. MAweatherboy1
4:38 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
12z GFS 312 hours:



324:



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7629
569. HurrMichaelOrl
4:37 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Based on the video and weather station reports, Jelawat was a good bit worse than Sanba for Okinawa, even though Sanba was a more intense typhoon. Winds in Naha peaked at 79 gusting to 107 mph during Jelawat. The island of Okinawa was in the right front quadrant of the storm this time.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1078
568. Chicklit
4:34 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 68
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 29 2012
br>...NADINE REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 36.2W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


Number 68!?!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11180
567. AussieStorm
4:27 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
There are some crazy photo's and video's on the Kadena Air Base facebook page.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
566. etxwx
4:25 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


And a right auricle at that. My motto is, "It is better to be a right auricle than a left ventricle, and better to always be a superior vena cava than an inferior vena cava"


You are just all heart, Grothar. All heart... ;-)

Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1458
565. aislinnpaps
4:21 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


The answer to this mystery is really quite simple. All of the national weather services run their models on Grothar's computer. .... Grothar will sneak a peek, from time to time, because it slows down the animation of his solitaire game and he is trying to find out why his ace is so slow moving to the top rows. .... Mystery solved? ... Or did I create another mystery?


Or is it because Grothar is the God of weather and hence all knowing?
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3115
564. Tropicsweatherpr
4:18 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
As many of the Eastern Caribbean islands are enduring,September has been below normal on rainfall in Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands.Also September 2012 ranks as the first warmest on record.

.CLIMATE...SEP 2012 AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT WILL END AS THE WARMEST
SEP ON RECORD. SEP 2012 HAS NOW MOVED SOLELY INTO FIRST PLACE AND
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW WILL ONLY HELP
IN MOVING FURTHER APART FROM SEP 1995. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...SEP
2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE SECOND DRIEST SEP ON RECORD WITH A
TOTAL OF 1.66 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR. THE THIRD DRIEST SEP ON
RECORD IS 1987 WITH 1.73 INCHES AND FOURTH IS 2006 WITH 1.78
INCHES. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO PICKUP ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN BEFORE THE MONTH ENDS WHICH COULD ALTER THE CURRENT RANKS BUT
IT CAN BE SAID WITH DEFINITE CERTAINTY THAT SEP WILL END IN THE
TOP FIVE DRIEST SEPTEMBERS ON RECORD.

AT THE CYRIL E. KING ARPT IN ST. THOMAS...SEP 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS
AS THE DRIEST SEP ON RECORD WITH 0.92 INCHES OF RAIN. THE SECOND
DRIEST SEP ON RECORD WAS IN 1986 WITH 1.08 INCHES AND THIRD WAS 1987
WITH 1.42 INCHES. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO PICKUP ANOTHER QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHICH COULD ALTER THE CURRENT RANKS BUT IT CAN BE
SAID WITH DEFINITE CERTAINTY THAT SEP WILL END IN THE TOP THREE
DRIEST SEPTEMBERS ON RECORD.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14050
563. HuracanTaino
4:07 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Snow in Alaska??? What next.
OH,,my, so soon? In Alaska? Incredible.....!!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 845
562. Some1Has2BtheRookie
4:06 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting Hangten:


OK. this happens too many times. You always know these things before they publish them. You post an image and say nothing and in a few hours the nhc writes something on it. You have been saying Nadine would go west and back in circles when all models had it going toward the Europe. You give the EURO forecast 3 hours before we get it. You know intensitys of such and you have posted of such waves from Africa days before they are of interest. I am of such opinion perhaps this is not of the lucky guess you mention. I have written of this before and i understand it you do wish to make us aware.


The answer to this mystery is really quite simple. All of the national weather services run their models on Grothar's computer. .... Grothar will sneak a peek, from time to time, because it slows down the animation of his solitaire game and he is trying to find out why his ace is so slow moving to the top rows. .... Mystery solved? ... Or did I create another mystery?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
561. AussieStorm
4:04 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
560. AussieStorm
4:04 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
559. AussieStorm
4:03 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
558. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:02 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
557. Grothar
3:59 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Looking Sw I can see the yellow tinge with Red way up High.

That CANT be good.



If I understood what you meant, I might agree with you.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25391
556. Tazmanian
3:59 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
That looks nice. But the CPC says the snow won't be back, at least not for a week or two. Even as a bullet of cold pushes down into the Lower 48, Alaska will be basking, relatively speaking:

Alaska



yep
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114758
555. DavidHOUTX
3:56 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting txjac:
I'm so bummed out ...how is all of this rain missing me???? We got some drizzle ...would love to see some serious rain just because I like it.



I'd love some serious rain too! I think we will see more develop west an head this way this afternoon... Well at least that's what the forecast discussion is saying. We should see the heaviest rain this evening into tonight. Only time will tell if it pans out. Here's to hoping it will!
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 598
554. Patrap
3:55 PM GMT on September 29, 2012

Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Pretty intense, had to have been 50 mph at least. Were the effects of Jelawat worse than those of Sanba a couple weeks ago?


Wont know till be get some published data seems.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127626
553. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:55 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
552. Patrap
3:53 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
550. Grothar


Looking Sw I can see the yellow tinge with Red way up High.

That CANT be good.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127626
551. Grothar
3:53 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25391
550. Grothar
3:51 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Globogenesis in action.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25391
549. HurrMichaelOrl
3:50 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
From Kadena AFB on Okinawa

Published on Sep 28, 2012 by Noah Burkham

Strong winds and rain. The eye is about 3 hours away from making landfall.



Pretty intense, had to have been 50 mph at least. Were the effects of Jelawat worse than those of Sanba a couple weeks ago?
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1078
548. HurrMichaelOrl
3:45 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:
i would like too report that the 1st snow of the season is now falling in Anchorage, AK






Beautiful! If it weren't for my love of tropical plants/gardening and summer storms and cyclones, I would move north in a heartbeat. Florida is hot.

Might Nadine make another anticyclonic loop in the Atlantic over the next week?
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1078
547. Patrap
3:44 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
What NOT to do in a Hurricane/Typhoon, please..wear a Helmet.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127626
546. Neapolitan
3:44 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:
i would like too report that the 1st snow of the season is now falling in Anchorage, AK
That looks nice. But the CPC says the snow won't be back, at least not for a week or two. Even as a bullet of cold pushes down into the Lower 48, Alaska will be basking, relatively speaking:

Alaska
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13462
545. Patrap
3:42 PM GMT on September 29, 2012


More videos here from Jelawat
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127626
544. Patrap
3:41 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
From Kadena AFB on Okinawa

Published on Sep 28, 2012 by Noah Burkham

Strong winds and rain. The eye is about 3 hours away from making landfall.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127626
543. Grothar
3:41 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting Hangten:


OK. this happens too many times. You always know these things before they publish them. You post an image and say nothing and in a few hours the nhc writes something on it. You have been saying Nadine would go west and back in circles when all models had it going toward the Europe. You give the EURO forecast 3 hours before we get it. You know intensitys of such and you have posted of such waves from Africa days before they are of interest. I am of such opinion perhaps this is not of the lucky guess you mention. I have written of this before and i understand it you do wish to make us aware.


Heldig gæt
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25391
542. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:40 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Snow in MI, I hope that's next. What will really be crazy is Nadine becoming a major hurricane:)


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
541. Patrap
3:40 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Typhoon Jelawat has all but cleared Okinawa

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127626
540. Patrap
3:38 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


And a right auricle at that. My motto is, "It is better to be a right auricle than a left ventricle, and better to always be a superior vena cava than an inferior vena cava"


I knew a Mother Superior with a Splintered yardstick.

: (
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127626
539. JupiterKen
3:36 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting Patrap:


He is a Auricle, not unlike the Chinese I-Ching, but alas he is much older.


Gro is aN ear? I never knew.
Member Since: May 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 306
538. wxchaser97
3:35 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Snow in Alaska??? What next.

Snow in MI, I hope that's next. What will really be crazy is Nadine becoming a major hurricane:)
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.