A Jelawat mystery; moisture associated with TS Norman drenching Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2012

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Powerful Typhoon Jelawat is hammering Japan's Ryukyu Islands as the typhoon steams northeastwards towards Okinawa at 12 mph. Jelawat has weakened to a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and an increase in wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots. At 7 pm local time, the winds today at Shimoji Shima Island were 66 mph, gusting to 85 mph. Jelawat has dumped 308.5 mm (12.1") rain in 12 hours at Tarama Airport. Satellite loops and radar loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 33 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are in close agreement that Jelawat will pass over or very close to Okinawa, Japan, as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm or Category 1 typhoon on Sunday. Wind shear will continue to increase over Jelawat for the remainder of its life, causing a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Japan's southern Ryukyu Islands at 11:05 pm local time on September 28, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

A Jelawat mystery
Jelawat has had a classic appearance on satellite imagery during its long stint as a Super Typhoon, with a large symmetric eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. However, at two points in its life--for several hours on September 25 (Figure 2), and again near 08 UTC September 27--both visible and infrared satellite images showed a very odd boundary extending north-northwestwards from the northeast side of the eye for about 50 miles. I've never seen any such feature in a tropical cyclone, and am a loss to explain what is going on. The typhoon was not close enough to any land areas for this to be a topographic effect, and there wasn't any obvious dry air or significant wind shear that could have caused a perturbation like this.


Figure 2. High resolution visible (left) and infrared (right) satellite imagery of Super Typhoon Jelawat from the new Suomi VIIRS instrument, taken at 0431 UTC on September 25, 2012. At the time, Jelawat was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. A very odd line appears along the north side of the eye. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, Colorado State University.
Brian Tang

Nadine a hurricane again
Non-stop Nadine has regenerated to hurricane strength again, as the long-lived storm enters its 16th day of life. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next seven days, but moisture associated with Nadine has flowed eastwards over Spain, bringing heavy rains and flooding problems. The GFS model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure on Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die. The 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will hang around an extra two days, finally getting pulled northeastward over cold waters next Friday. Nadine is already in eighth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 2002: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Nadine, 2012: 16.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 8:30 am EDT Friday, September 28, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 70 mph, and would be declared a hurricane 3 hours later. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Norman forms near Baja, Mexico; associated moisture feeding heavy rains in Texas
Tropical Storm Norman has formed this morning near the tip of Baja, Mexico, and promises to be a potent rain-maker for Mexico and the Southern U.S. Norman's moisture will feed the formation of an extratropical storm that will form in South Texas on Saturday. The storm's center will potentially move over the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday, but the storm will probably not have enough time over water to convert to a tropical system. The storm will bring heavy flooding rains to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Flooding has already been observed in West Texas this morning. Midland-Odessa picked up 3.12” of rain so far today, making it the 3rd wettest September day on record. The wettest day in city history is August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.


Figure 4. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman is expected to surge eastwards and bring heavy rains to much of Texas and the North Gulf Coast. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

New African wave may develop next week
A tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Sunday will develop into a tropical depression by next Wednesday, predicts today's 06Z run of the NOGAPS model. The wave is predicted to recurve to the north more than 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Nadine does have an eyewall, something that I noticed building up early this morning. I say Nadine could do a little more strengthening before shear starts to take over.


Also on the GFS snow has been showing up on some runs in the Great Lakes, Midwest, and NE. However this is like 10 days out and unreliable but we are headed toward that time period.
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TROPICAL UPDATE:
______________________

Tropical Storm Norman
Hurricane Nadine

Wpac storms TY Jelawat and TS Ewiniar


click on the pic for a better 4x bigger resolution
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daylight beginning to break in okinawa
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2636
Quoting kwgirl:
Could it be that the Mayans had it correct, but the archeologists misread the calendar? Maybe they are off by a year?

Great idea!
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Interesting new found out....

I-Team: The Army's secret Cold War experiments on St. Louisans
7:12 AM, Sep 25, 2012

Video: I-Team: the Army's secret Cold War experiments

Link

By Leisa Zigman I-Team Reporter

St. Louis (KSDK) - The I-Team independently verified that the spraying of zinc cadmium sulfide did take place in St. Louis on thousands of unsuspecting citizens. What is unclear is whether the Army added a radioactive material to the compound as Martino-Taylor's research implies.

Link
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Quoting LargoFl:
Raining here NW of the Island of the enchantment...!!
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Nice wave moving towards the Caribbean. Looks like very strong wind shear in the right of the image (j/k)

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26390
000
WTNT44 KNHC 282035
TCDAT4

HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 65
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

NADINE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
AN EYE HAS MADE OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE UNDER THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
HOWEVER...THE EYE AT THE MID-LEVEL SEEMS TO BE ABOUT 25 N MI NNE OF
THE SURFACE CENTER...LIKELY DUE TO 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ANALYZED BY CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL. REGARDLESS OF
THE TILT AND THE SHEAR...THE CURRENT DVORAK-BASED AND MICROWAVE-
BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65
KT...AS DOES THE CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS METHOD. THE CIRRUS
OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 325/7. FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO NADINE
SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR 32N47W. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST NADINE TO MERGE OR
MOVE UNDER THIS LOW IN 48-72 HR...WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS JUST SOUTH OF THE MAIN BRANCH
OF THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW MOTION FROM
48-96 HR IN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NADINE
COULD PERFORM AN CYCLONIC LOOP DURING THIS TIME AS SHOWN BY THE
ECMWF...UKMET...AND GFDL MODELS. AFTER 96 HR...THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE WESTERLIES TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD NADINE...WHICH
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE OLD THROUGH 96 HR...AND IS A
LITTLE FASTER AT 120 HR. HOWEVER...THE 120-HR POINT IS NOT AS FAR
EAST AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...AND SOME ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY
IF THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT NADINE WILL ENCOUNTER 15-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12-36 HR...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NO
LONGER SHOWS ANY STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAY INTERACT WITH
NADINE AROUND 48-72 HR...WHICH COULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY IN TOO POOR OF AGREEMENT ON THIS TO CHANGE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. AFTER 72 HR...INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
SHOULD CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 30.1N 35.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 31.3N 35.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 33.2N 36.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 35.1N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 36.1N 37.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 36.5N 37.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 36.5N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 36.5N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Quoting barbamz:


...and definitely too late to announce the end of the world Dec 2012, which should have been the true mission of such an extraordinary comet ... ;-)
Could it be that the Mayans had it correct, but the archeologists misread the calendar? Maybe they are off by a year?
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...NADINE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR MOTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 28
Location: 30.1°N 35.0°W
Moving: NW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Great pics, Pat. I remember that one well; it's the fourth best comet I'd ever seen Ikeya-Seki in 1965, McNaught in 2006, and West in 1976 (still my favorite).


Halley's Comet in 1910 is still my favorite.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26390
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26390
..NADINE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR MOTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 28
Location: 30.1°N 35.0°W
Moving: NW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

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Quoting HuracanTaino:
Wow Doctor Master,my great grandmother was 19 years old, and she told me the story of San Ciriaco when I was a child, back in the early 70's. Super Hurricane San Ciriaco, hit Puerto Rico in 1899, as a marginal Cat.5, killed 3,359, people in Puerto Rico. The deadliest hurricane ever to hit our beloved Island.


Ciriaco was devastating; also San Felipe... lots of stories from our grandfathers....
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Norman looks absolutely pathetic now. It's pulling a Don.


Personally I never saw Norman look good in the first place but it qualified for classification, yeah it is dieing.
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Wow Doctor Master,my great grandmother was 19 years old, and she told me the story of San Ciriaco when I was a child, back in the early 70's. Super Hurricane San Ciriaco, hit Puerto Rico in 1899, as a marginal Cat.5, killed 3,359, people in Puerto Rico. The deadliest hurricane ever to hit our beloved Island.
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Water vapor look of Nadine and rain soaked Spain.
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Quoting Patrap:



I made quite a few dollar's off of my Hale-Bopp Images in 97.

So another nice one is welcomed fer sho Nea.


Patrap's WunderBlog
Hale-Bopp 10 years later
Posted by: Patrap, 10:55 AM GMT on March 28, 2007


Great pics, Pat. I remember that one well; it's the fourth best comet I'd ever seen Ikeya-Seki in 1965, McNaught in 2006, and West in 1976 (still my favorite).
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Norman looks absolutely pathetic now. It's pulling a Don.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Been watching this one for a few days. From Astronomy magazine:

"About a year from now, Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) probably will become the brightest comet anyone alive has ever seen. How bright it could get is currently the subject of vigorous discussion among planetary scientists and everyday comet-watchers."

From the Comet Blog:

"Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) will get to within 0.012AU of the Sun (extremely close) at the end of November 2013 and then to ~0.4AU from Earth at the beginning of January 2014! According to its orbit, this comet might become a naked-eye object in the period November 2013 - January 2014. And it might reach a negative magnitude at the end of November 2013. "

Definitely one to get excited about--but it's still way too early to declare it as the best ever.


As long as it does not get within .o au of the earth I am happy...
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I think Jelawat is attempting another EWRC based on an earlier microwave image I posted and the eye shrinking and clouding up on satellite. This would be its fourth one I believe.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7829
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A rather soggy day up here... cold too, temperatures didn't get out of the 50s, first time that's happened this season.


Wet at my place too
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We're starting to see a bit of a pattern shape up I think... we're getting continual troughs and cold shots for much of the country with warm weather for the west and Alaska... time will tell if it sticks around for winter.



The precip maps have been all over the place, but one thing that's been rather consistent is way above average precip in Alaska:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7829
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A rather soggy day up here... cold too, temperatures didn't get out of the 50s, first time that's happened this season.


I got a small warm up coming and then possibly some of the coolest temps yet. It has been nice up here with cooler wetter days instead of hot and dry like the summer.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Definitely one to get excited about--but it's still way too early to declare it as the best ever.


...and definitely too late to announce the end of the world Dec 2012, which should have been the true mission of such an extraordinary comet ... ;-)
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A rather soggy day up here... cold too, temperatures didn't get out of the 50s, first time that's happened this season.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7829
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Just got put under a Flash Flood Watch for tomorrow.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
259 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>23 8-301100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0006.120929T1100Z-120930T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO -FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-M ADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWE LL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD... HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON.. .WILLIS...
WINNIE
259 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MA DISON...
MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE
WEEKEND. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM AND
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EASILY REACHING AT LEAST 2 TO 4
INCHES. EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
IF ANY FLOODING IS OBSERVED...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH THE
WATER. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN!

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
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New Orleans
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
335 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

PRC027-071-115-282230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0361.120928T1935Z-120928T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-CAMUY PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-
335 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...CAMUY AND QUEBRADILLAS

* UNTIL 630 PM AST

* AT 334 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS IN CENTRAL QUEBRADILLAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6684 1837 6682 1840 6703 1850 6707

$$

SNELL
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14303
Quoting Neapolitan:
Been watching this one for a few days. From Astronomy magazine:

"About a year from now, Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) probably will become the brightest comet anyone alive has ever seen. How bright it could get is currently the subject of vigorous discussion among planetary scientists and everyday comet-watchers."

From the Comet Blog:

"Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) will get to within 0.012AU of the Sun (extremely close) at the end of November 2013 and then to ~0.4AU from Earth at the beginning of January 2014! According to its orbit, this comet might become a naked-eye object in the period November 2013 - January 2014. And it might reach a negative magnitude at the end of November 2013. "

Definitely one to get excited about--but it's still way too early to declare it as the best ever.



I made quite a few dollar's off of my Hale-Bopp Images in 97.

So another nice one is welcomed fer sho Nea.


Patrap's WunderBlog
Hale-Bopp 10 years later
Posted by: Patrap, 10:55 AM GMT on March 28, 2007


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
yeah maybe monday or tuesday we will get some here,maybe..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38985
Quoting Patrap:


Maybe you will get some .


Its not quite a Neutercane, more a Sub tropical Low to form and glide E to ENE thru Tuesday..then cooler thankfully.
thanks would be nice, cooler too would be great lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38985
Quoting washingtonian115:
The washingtonpost does have a interesting tropical weather section on the site.Just read the article this morning.


Itsa nice quick glance and I'm using it more and more myself.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
Quoting etxwx:
Newfound comet may outshine moon in 2013

BEIJING, Sept. 27 (Xinhuanet) -- Astronomers have discovered a comet that will put on a dazzling display with a brightness that could well outshine the full moon when it crosses the night sky in November 2013, according to media reports on Thursday. The comet ISON was spotted in photographs taken by Russians Vitali Nevski and Artyom Novichonok using a 15.7-inch (0.4-meter) reflecting telescope of the International Scientific Optical Network (ISON), near Kislovodsk, Russia. It is currently very faint because it is out in the depths of space near Jupiter's orbit, will steadily brighten over the coming months.

The few days surrounding the comet’s closest approach to the sun on Nov. 28, 2013, are likely to be most interesting. It will whirl rapidly around the sun in a hairpin-like curve and perhaps become a dazzlingly bright object. It could become brighter than the greatest comet of the last century, Comet Ikeya-Seki, which excited astronomers in 1965.
Been watching this one for a few days. From Astronomy magazine:

"About a year from now, Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) probably will become the brightest comet anyone alive has ever seen. How bright it could get is currently the subject of vigorous discussion among planetary scientists and everyday comet-watchers."

From the Comet Blog:

"Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) will get to within 0.012AU of the Sun (extremely close) at the end of November 2013 and then to ~0.4AU from Earth at the beginning of January 2014! According to its orbit, this comet might become a naked-eye object in the period November 2013 - January 2014. And it might reach a negative magnitude at the end of November 2013. "

Definitely one to get excited about--but it's still way too early to declare it as the best ever.
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Quoting LargoFl:
would be nice if some of that moisture hits my area,been dry here all week now


Maybe you will get some .


Its not quite a Neutercane, more a Sub tropical Low to form and glide E to ENE thru Tuesday..then cooler thankfully.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
Quoting Patrap:
Posted at 11:22 AM ET, 09/28/2012
Typhoon Jelawat closing in on Okinawa, Japan; Nadine becomes hurricane (again)
By Brian McNoldy




Typhoon Jelawat remains a formidable storm as it passes dangerously close to Taiwan on path towards Okinawa and then mainland Japan.

Satellite image of Jelawat on Thursday morning when it was heading toward Taiwan with 155mph sustained winds. (JMA/NOAA)


On Sunday, Jelawat became the second super typhoon to pass over the region in two weeks: Sanba was just there on September 13-14. While the western Pacific is no stranger to frequent typhoons, it is quite rare to have two consecutive super typhoons (a “super typhoon” is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph or greater).

After its meager beginnings as a tropical depression back on September 20, Jelawat reached a peak intensity of 160 mph on the 25th just east of the Philippines, but has weakened somewhat to its current intensity of 127 mph. Those wind speeds correspond to a Category 5 and high-end Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale, respectively (a typhoon and a hurricane are just different regional names for the same thing).

Fortunately for Taiwan, the storm recurved prior to reaching the island (the center passed within 200 miles of the coast), and the brunt of the rain and wind remained over the open ocean. But, now it’s heading northeast toward the Ryukyu Islands and then the main Japanese islands by the end of the weekend. Along the way, another direct hit on island of Okinawa appears likely.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects Jelawat to pass over Okinawa as formidable typhoon with maximum winds of 100 to 115 mph Saturday.

A recent radar image from Okinawa shows the storm’s outer rainbands already affecting the Ryukyu island chain, and the eyewall coming into view on the lower left corner of the image. I have a very long radar loop available that allows you to track the whole progress of the typhoon as it approaches and passes the area.

Aside from ground-based radar, the space-based equivalent is images taken of a storm at microwave wavelengths (very similar to conventional radars).

Like their ground-based counterparts, they can “see” through the clouds and capture just the precipitation structure. These instruments are currently only on polar-orbiting satellites, and rely on occasional fortuitous overpasses as the satellite zips around the globe.

Sometimes the satellite passes directly over a storm and catches great images, and other times the swath completely misses or just catches the edge of a storm. Earlier this morning, the DMSP F15 satellite had a great overpass, giving a valuable big-picture snapshot of the storm’s structure.



Jelawat is forecast to reach mainland Japan as a low-end (category 1) typhoon Saturday night into Sunday. It is expected to make landfall on Honshu south of Tokyo.
The washingtonpost does have a interesting tropical weather section on the site.Just read the article this morning.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38985
Quoting Patrap:
GOM Rainbow Still/Loop

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

would be nice if some of that moisture hits my area,been dry here all week now
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38985
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
GOM Rainbow Still/Loop

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
Quoting Patrap:


A comet of that magnitude is easily seen with the naked eye. Like the one mentioned from 1965.

Ikeya-Seki



thats Great..i'd love to see that when it comes
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38985
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38985
Quoting LargoFl:
amazing sight for sure, hope we can see it with just our eyes and not thru a telescope etc.


A comet of that magnitude is easily seen with the naked eye. Like the one mentioned from 1965.

Ikeya-Seki



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
I wonder, now that NASA has found stream beds of old flowing water on mars..i wonder if like the earth has water below the surface, will Nasa try to drill down inside mars to see if there is Still water trapped deep below the surface?...what an amazing Find that would be huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38985
Quoting islander101010:
so is miriam going to follow normans wake?

There is no Miriam anymore and the remnants probably won't.
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Okinawa Typhoon Jelawat WunderMap®
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
Posted at 11:22 AM ET, 09/28/2012
Typhoon Jelawat closing in on Okinawa, Japan; Nadine becomes hurricane (again)
By Brian McNoldy




Typhoon Jelawat remains a formidable storm as it passes dangerously close to Taiwan on path towards Okinawa and then mainland Japan.

Satellite image of Jelawat on Thursday morning when it was heading toward Taiwan with 155mph sustained winds. (JMA/NOAA)


On Sunday, Jelawat became the second super typhoon to pass over the region in two weeks: Sanba was just there on September 13-14. While the western Pacific is no stranger to frequent typhoons, it is quite rare to have two consecutive super typhoons (a “super typhoon” is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph or greater).

After its meager beginnings as a tropical depression back on September 20, Jelawat reached a peak intensity of 160 mph on the 25th just east of the Philippines, but has weakened somewhat to its current intensity of 127 mph. Those wind speeds correspond to a Category 5 and high-end Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale, respectively (a typhoon and a hurricane are just different regional names for the same thing).

Fortunately for Taiwan, the storm recurved prior to reaching the island (the center passed within 200 miles of the coast), and the brunt of the rain and wind remained over the open ocean. But, now it’s heading northeast toward the Ryukyu Islands and then the main Japanese islands by the end of the weekend. Along the way, another direct hit on island of Okinawa appears likely.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects Jelawat to pass over Okinawa as formidable typhoon with maximum winds of 100 to 115 mph Saturday.

A recent radar image from Okinawa shows the storm’s outer rainbands already affecting the Ryukyu island chain, and the eyewall coming into view on the lower left corner of the image. I have a very long radar loop available that allows you to track the whole progress of the typhoon as it approaches and passes the area.

Aside from ground-based radar, the space-based equivalent is images taken of a storm at microwave wavelengths (very similar to conventional radars).

Like their ground-based counterparts, they can “see” through the clouds and capture just the precipitation structure. These instruments are currently only on polar-orbiting satellites, and rely on occasional fortuitous overpasses as the satellite zips around the globe.

Sometimes the satellite passes directly over a storm and catches great images, and other times the swath completely misses or just catches the edge of a storm. Earlier this morning, the DMSP F15 satellite had a great overpass, giving a valuable big-picture snapshot of the storm’s structure.



Jelawat is forecast to reach mainland Japan as a low-end (category 1) typhoon Saturday night into Sunday. It is expected to make landfall on Honshu south of Tokyo.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.