A Jelawat mystery; moisture associated with TS Norman drenching Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2012

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Powerful Typhoon Jelawat is hammering Japan's Ryukyu Islands as the typhoon steams northeastwards towards Okinawa at 12 mph. Jelawat has weakened to a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and an increase in wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots. At 7 pm local time, the winds today at Shimoji Shima Island were 66 mph, gusting to 85 mph. Jelawat has dumped 308.5 mm (12.1") rain in 12 hours at Tarama Airport. Satellite loops and radar loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 33 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are in close agreement that Jelawat will pass over or very close to Okinawa, Japan, as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm or Category 1 typhoon on Sunday. Wind shear will continue to increase over Jelawat for the remainder of its life, causing a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Japan's southern Ryukyu Islands at 11:05 pm local time on September 28, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

A Jelawat mystery
Jelawat has had a classic appearance on satellite imagery during its long stint as a Super Typhoon, with a large symmetric eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. However, at two points in its life--for several hours on September 25 (Figure 2), and again near 08 UTC September 27--both visible and infrared satellite images showed a very odd boundary extending north-northwestwards from the northeast side of the eye for about 50 miles. I've never seen any such feature in a tropical cyclone, and am a loss to explain what is going on. The typhoon was not close enough to any land areas for this to be a topographic effect, and there wasn't any obvious dry air or significant wind shear that could have caused a perturbation like this.


Figure 2. High resolution visible (left) and infrared (right) satellite imagery of Super Typhoon Jelawat from the new Suomi VIIRS instrument, taken at 0431 UTC on September 25, 2012. At the time, Jelawat was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. A very odd line appears along the north side of the eye. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, Colorado State University.
Brian Tang

Nadine a hurricane again
Non-stop Nadine has regenerated to hurricane strength again, as the long-lived storm enters its 16th day of life. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next seven days, but moisture associated with Nadine has flowed eastwards over Spain, bringing heavy rains and flooding problems. The GFS model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure on Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die. The 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will hang around an extra two days, finally getting pulled northeastward over cold waters next Friday. Nadine is already in eighth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 2002: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Nadine, 2012: 16.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 8:30 am EDT Friday, September 28, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 70 mph, and would be declared a hurricane 3 hours later. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Norman forms near Baja, Mexico; associated moisture feeding heavy rains in Texas
Tropical Storm Norman has formed this morning near the tip of Baja, Mexico, and promises to be a potent rain-maker for Mexico and the Southern U.S. Norman's moisture will feed the formation of an extratropical storm that will form in South Texas on Saturday. The storm's center will potentially move over the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday, but the storm will probably not have enough time over water to convert to a tropical system. The storm will bring heavy flooding rains to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Flooding has already been observed in West Texas this morning. Midland-Odessa picked up 3.12” of rain so far today, making it the 3rd wettest September day on record. The wettest day in city history is August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.


Figure 4. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman is expected to surge eastwards and bring heavy rains to much of Texas and the North Gulf Coast. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

New African wave may develop next week
A tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Sunday will develop into a tropical depression by next Wednesday, predicts today's 06Z run of the NOGAPS model. The wave is predicted to recurve to the north more than 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Upper-level ridging is going to develop across the East Pacific, South Gulf of Mexico, and West Caribbean as we head through the first two weeks of October. Normal late-season tropical activity setup.

Rina 2011:



Paula 2010:



Ida 2009:



Paloma 2008:



...the list goes on and on.


Absolutely correct, plus the models are showing a favorable upper level environment taking place in the future. TCHP is insane high as well. Watch it closely.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23501
GT..supposed to be hail with these storms moving in.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36668
Mitch was a killer
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2503
Seems to be a lot more rain than the other 2. I'm getting the feeling it is going to run right up the center of the island. There is not a lot of water off the ocean at this time. Sanba was throwing water on the street. HOpe to get to visit the eye on Jelawat.
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Tropical Wave emerging West Africa introduced.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N19W TO 17N17W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
EXAMINING A HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM AND UPPER AIR TIME SECTION
ANALYSES...IT APPEARS THE WAVE PASSED DAKAR SENEGAL AROUND
28/1200 UTC AND NOW REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MONSOONAL GYRE OFF
THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 11N19W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N-17N E OF 22W. MOST DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF W AFRICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 11W-17W.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13931
Or even this nastiness...

1932 Cuba Hurricane was a powerful and deadly late-season hurricane during the 1932 Atlantic hurricane season. It was the fourteenth tropical storm, fifth hurricane, and fourth major hurricane of the 1932 season.[1] The strongest tropical cyclone (and only Category 5 hurricane) ever recorded in the month of November, it devastated eastern Cuba and the Cayman Islands, resulting in at least 3,103 deaths, making it one of the deadliest hurricanes of the 20th century.





Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
757 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

FLZ055-056-060-061-290045-
DE SOTO-HARDEE-MANATEE-SARASOTA-
757 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL SARASOTA...
NORTHWESTERN DESOTO...SOUTHEASTERN MANATEE AND SOUTHWESTERN HARDEE
COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A THUNDERSTORM
LOCATED NEAR LIMESTONE...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF ARCADIA...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT LIMESTONE AND MYAKKA CITY...UNTIL
845 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR
ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36668
I doubt we have another Wilma in terms of strength this year and wide spread devastation.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16327
Dont forget the lefty Lenny.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13931
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wilma.

Wilma may be the most famous, but I would definitely rank Mitch as the most infamous due to his indescribable impact to Central America.

Then again, I may just be splitting hairs. Wilma certainly was incredible in her own right, but Mitch came to my mind much faster.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11660
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
636 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CHATHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 631 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER HASTY...OR OVER SILER CITY...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PITTSBORO...
BYNUM...
JORDAN LAKE...

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 264 BETWEEN EXITS 378 AND 386.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL CAPABLE OF DENTING VEHICLES.
STAY INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36668
from the 8pm discussion.............DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 81W TO A BASE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FAIRLY DRY
AIR ALOFT OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
IS UNDER NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DUE TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER MUCH OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
STRETCHING EASTWARD TO 85W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE PROVIDING NW
PORTIONS OF THE GULF WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDINESS THIS
EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO
FOUND NW OF A LINE FROM MOBILE BAY NEAR 30N88W TO NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS
ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE
SW GULF NEAR 19N96W WITH PRIMARILY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 81W IS
PROVIDING FOR OVERALL BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND SW NORTH ATLC REGION THAT SUPPORTS EARLY EVENING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THIS AREA FROM PANAMA AND NORTHERN
COLOMBIA NORTHWARD TO CUBA AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. TO
FURTHER AID IN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE
AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W IS ALSO ADDING
ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY TO THE CONVECTIVE EQUATION THIS EVENING.
OVERALL...VERY BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE TROUGHING IS ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AND MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WHICH IS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE CONVECTION. EAST OF 70W...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 67W AND PROVIDES THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES WITH A DRY AND SUBSIDENT NW FLOW
ALOFT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
AND PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING...HOWEVER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LESSENED DUE TO THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ALOFT.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36668
Quoting 1900hurricane:
And possibly the most infamous example...

Mitch the Hurricane that produce devastation to my country.Mitch was move south because of a big strong high pressure right? but why two days before the hurricane made landfall the models were still showing a path towards Yucatan?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3958
Quoting 1900hurricane:
And possibly the most infamous example...

Wilma.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening all....

We've been getting another round of rain every 12 - 18 hours here... it's not helping much with the humidity, but it is keeping the dust down, and it's usually a bit cooler while the rain is falling.

I also notice we're getting a bit more of a nip in the mornings, though it's usually still above 75.... prolly just hopeful thinking, thought....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS at 60 hours, the Low doesnt go in the gulf.......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36668
And possibly the most infamous example...

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11660
GFS at 48 hours..there is the Low...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36668
TA13 you can add this one to your list:

1921 Tampa Bay hurricane Oct. 20 - Oct. 30:


Coincides with the secondary peak of the Atlantic hurricane season:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
looks like I could be getting some rain here in a few minutes also..yessss.....................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36668
Quoting winter123:
Why on earth was this named? It's a highly sheared blob.
Ewwww one of the uglier T.C's I have seen in awhile.I never thought I'd see another competitor with Danny.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16327
Quoting aislinnpaps:
It's pouring here in Louisiana. I'm loving it.
THATS GOOD NEWS,local weather guy said a low will be in the gulf later this weekend or so and moving towards florida..he said we should get some good rain from it tuesday, we could use it too
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36668
Quoting winter123:
Why on earth was this named? It's a highly sheared blob.

Well, let's see...it's a well-defined, closed, area of low pressure with sustained deep convection atop it for several days. It originated over tropical waters, is not connected to a front, and non-frontal in nature. Meets the definition of a tropical cyclone, does it not?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31338
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.The low that is suspected to form in the gulf won't be fully tropical in nature.So for those hoping to get Oscar in the gulf sorry.With all that shear that is suppose to be down there expect it to look very ugly and messy.Lot's of rain for people though.
Well you can't expect a tropical system to form overland, maybe subtropical, but I think that is a stretch as phase diagrams show cold-core. :P
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142012
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 28 2012

...NORMAN LOSING ORGANIZATION AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
SINALOA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 108.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM W OF CULIACAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO
HUATABAMPO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST. NORMAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND A NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND FAR WESTERN
DURANGO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13931
Quoting HuracanTaino:
With shear all over the place seems very unlikely, unless , there is a break,

Upper-level ridging is going to develop across the East Pacific, South Gulf of Mexico, and West Caribbean as we head through the first two weeks of October. Normal late-season tropical activity setup.

Rina 2011:



Paula 2010:



Ida 2009:



Paloma 2008:



...the list goes on and on.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31338
Why on earth was this named? It's a highly sheared blob.
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Quoting guygee:
Nice post, good timing ;-)
Lol.The low that is suspected to form in the gulf won't be fully tropical in nature.So for those hoping to get Oscar in the gulf sorry.With all that shear that is suppose to be down there expect it to look very ugly and messy.Lot's of rain for people though.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16327
Quoting washingtonian115:
There is expected to be a trough that is suppose to be strong and swing down across the U.S sometime next week.So that should keep the gulf and caribbean close for business for awhile.
Nice post, good timing ;-)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3140
Quoting HuracanTaino:
With shear all over the place seems very unlikely, unless , there is a break,
There is expected to be a trough that is suppose to be strong and swing down across the U.S sometime next week.So that should keep the gulf and caribbean close for business for awhile.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16327
HPC 3-7 Day Forecast
Issued 1858Z Friday Sept. 28
Valid 12Z Monday Oct.01 through 12Z Friday Oct.05
Fcstr: Cisco
(SE selection)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3140
Quoting etxwx:


We still have the East TX umbrella over us...nice big shower to the south but it's moving northeast and will miss us. *sigh* I have hopes for the giant green blob to the far west, KFDM Greg Bostwick says 90% chance of rain for us.

Say, has anyone seen AtHomeInTx lately?


We're forecasted for a possible 3 to 4 inches. My gardens will love it. I hope you guys get your 90%!
I was wondering about AtHome as well, haven't seen her in a while.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
yep u right first sanba now jelawat. just crazy!


They also had Bolaven on August 26. Three in a month. Now THAT's crazy.
Member Since: August 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 167
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think we will have 18 named 11 hurricane 3 majors by the end of this year dec 21 2012
With shear all over the place seems very unlikely, unless , there is a break,
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254. etxwx
Quoting aislinnpaps:
It's pouring here in Louisiana. I'm loving it.


We still have the East TX umbrella over us...nice big shower to the south but it's moving northeast and will miss us. *sigh* I have hopes for the giant green blob to the far west, KFDM Greg Bostwick says 90% chance of rain for us.

Say, has anyone seen AtHomeInTx lately?
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1428
Jelawat hits Okinawa with 132 mph wind gust in Tokashiki
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I see also the waves have increased alot so Jelawat is really on the way
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Jelawat is really showing now here in Okinawa webcam. Refershes every minute. The center should pass right over this beach soon.
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It's pouring here in Louisiana. I'm loving it.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31338
I think we will have 18 named 11 hurricane 3 majors by the end of this year dec 21 2012
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The worst of the eyewall is going over Okinawa now:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7566
I wonder if the Azores will call in retirement for Nadine since she won't leave them alone.

You know she's like a shark that's gotten to it's pray.They nibble on the pray first to taste it.Then they have a full on course the second time.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16327
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
We may have a nice aurora display in a couple days as a CME left the Sun this morning and is heading our way:



From today's Space Weather Prediction Center Discussion:

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels on day one (29
September) and through midday on day two (30 September). By late
on day two, active levels with a chance for minor to major storm
periods are expected due to the arrival of the Earth-directed CME
observed early on 28 September. On day three (01 October),
continued minor to major storm conditions are expected early in the
day, decreasing to mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods as effects from the CME wane.

Level G2 watch in effect.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31338
We may have a nice aurora display in a couple days as a CME left the Sun this morning and is heading our way:



From today's Space Weather Prediction Center Discussion:

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels on day one (29
September) and through midday on day two (30 September). By late
on day two, active levels with a chance for minor to major storm
periods are expected due to the arrival of the Earth-directed CME
observed early on 28 September. On day three (01 October),
continued minor to major storm conditions are expected early in the
day, decreasing to mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods as effects from the CME wane.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7566
Interesting New Zooniverse project I would think the blog would be very interested in.

CycloneCenter.org is a web-based interface that enables the public to help analyze the intensities of past tropical cyclones around the globe. The global intensity record contains uncertainties caused by differences in analysis procedures around the world and through time. Patterns in storm imagery are best recognized by the human eye, so scientists are enlisting the public. Interested volunteers will be shown one of nearly 300,000 satellite images. They will answer questions about that image as part of a simplified technique for estimating the maximum surface wind speed of tropical cyclones. This public collaboration will perform more than a million classifications in just a few months—something it would take a team of scientists more than a decade to accomplish. The end product will be a new global tropical cyclone dataset that provides 3-hourly tropical cyclone intensity estimates, confidence intervals, and a wealth of other metadata that could not be realistically obtained in any other fashion.

Link
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Quoting Grothar:


Old Sam passed in 1910.

Were you at the funeral, Grothar?
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Jelawat is gonna do some damage to okinawa the way this webcam looking. hopefully everyone will be okay
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With all this server weather we've been getting around here lately in the northeast and mid-atlantic this September this leads up to bigger more interesting things this upcoming winter :).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16327
Good morning, Jelawat.

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Nadine looks pretty strong.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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