A Jelawat mystery; moisture associated with TS Norman drenching Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2012

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Powerful Typhoon Jelawat is hammering Japan's Ryukyu Islands as the typhoon steams northeastwards towards Okinawa at 12 mph. Jelawat has weakened to a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and an increase in wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots. At 7 pm local time, the winds today at Shimoji Shima Island were 66 mph, gusting to 85 mph. Jelawat has dumped 308.5 mm (12.1") rain in 12 hours at Tarama Airport. Satellite loops and radar loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 33 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are in close agreement that Jelawat will pass over or very close to Okinawa, Japan, as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm or Category 1 typhoon on Sunday. Wind shear will continue to increase over Jelawat for the remainder of its life, causing a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Japan's southern Ryukyu Islands at 11:05 pm local time on September 28, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

A Jelawat mystery
Jelawat has had a classic appearance on satellite imagery during its long stint as a Super Typhoon, with a large symmetric eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. However, at two points in its life--for several hours on September 25 (Figure 2), and again near 08 UTC September 27--both visible and infrared satellite images showed a very odd boundary extending north-northwestwards from the northeast side of the eye for about 50 miles. I've never seen any such feature in a tropical cyclone, and am a loss to explain what is going on. The typhoon was not close enough to any land areas for this to be a topographic effect, and there wasn't any obvious dry air or significant wind shear that could have caused a perturbation like this.


Figure 2. High resolution visible (left) and infrared (right) satellite imagery of Super Typhoon Jelawat from the new Suomi VIIRS instrument, taken at 0431 UTC on September 25, 2012. At the time, Jelawat was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. A very odd line appears along the north side of the eye. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, Colorado State University.
Brian Tang

Nadine a hurricane again
Non-stop Nadine has regenerated to hurricane strength again, as the long-lived storm enters its 16th day of life. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next seven days, but moisture associated with Nadine has flowed eastwards over Spain, bringing heavy rains and flooding problems. The GFS model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure on Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die. The 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will hang around an extra two days, finally getting pulled northeastward over cold waters next Friday. Nadine is already in eighth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 2002: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Nadine, 2012: 16.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 8:30 am EDT Friday, September 28, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 70 mph, and would be declared a hurricane 3 hours later. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Norman forms near Baja, Mexico; associated moisture feeding heavy rains in Texas
Tropical Storm Norman has formed this morning near the tip of Baja, Mexico, and promises to be a potent rain-maker for Mexico and the Southern U.S. Norman's moisture will feed the formation of an extratropical storm that will form in South Texas on Saturday. The storm's center will potentially move over the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday, but the storm will probably not have enough time over water to convert to a tropical system. The storm will bring heavy flooding rains to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Flooding has already been observed in West Texas this morning. Midland-Odessa picked up 3.12” of rain so far today, making it the 3rd wettest September day on record. The wettest day in city history is August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.


Figure 4. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman is expected to surge eastwards and bring heavy rains to much of Texas and the North Gulf Coast. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

New African wave may develop next week
A tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Sunday will develop into a tropical depression by next Wednesday, predicts today's 06Z run of the NOGAPS model. The wave is predicted to recurve to the north more than 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting airmet3:


That reads peak wind from 130 degrees at 61kts at time 0057UTC. This is odd since the ob itself is showing a gust at 75kts.

Yep, I read it wrong, already fixed it.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think Okinawa's getting it worse than expected. If I'm reading this right they've gusted to 130kts.

SPECI RODN 290100Z AUTO 13048G75KT 3/4SM R05/2400V4500FT RA BR VV009 25/25 A2832 RMK AO2 PK WND 13061/0057 PRESFR SLP589 TSNO

As Pat said they should make out fine but still that's pretty heavy weather.


That reads peak wind from 130 degrees at 61kts at time 0057UTC. This is odd since the ob itself is showing a gust at 75kts.
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Sun going down on our East Pac mess...

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335. etxwx
Current Jelawat update from Stars and Stripe's Dave Ornauer at Pacific Storm Tracker Blog
Update 22
9:30 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 29, Japan time: Whoo-wee, it’s getting BAD out there, gang. Already, we’re hearing of widespread power outages, debris being blown hither and thither as if carried away in a riptide. Gad, I sure hope everybody’s playing it safe and cuddling close indoors away from that mess.

We’re not in three-figure winds (yet), though Kadena Air Base has already reported 58-mph sustained winds with 75-mph gusts. Max felt on the island, 98-mph gusts down south where Typhoon Jelawat is unleashing its beastly fury. The worst is yet to come, I’m afraid.

Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Maximum 115-mph sustained winds, 138-mph gusts, 11 a.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 6 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 9 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 3 a.m. Sunday.

Again, a reminder for those hoping to flee the lockdown when the winds die down: When Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-R (recovery) is declared, that is NOT the time to go out. Assessment teams fan out at that point to survey damage, flooding, downed power lines and tree limbs, etc. Best to stay indoors until TCCOR Storm Watch is declared. Always report whatever damage you may come upon to your local civil engineers.
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1484
Norman down to TD on 00z Best Track.

EP, 14, 2012092900, , BEST, 0, 250N, 1089W, 30, 1003, TD
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14308
No change to Nadine on 00z Best Track.

AL, 14, 2012092900, , BEST, 0, 306N, 353W, 65, 988, HU
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14308
Having spent a year in Okinawa at Camp Hansen as a US Marine from Sept 82-83, they are a very Typhoon savvy People and Island as any place on Earth.

Definitely.

They will make out fine.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Bring it!



thats the best looking things texas has seen since oil!!!
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Okinawa is in the brunt of Typhoon Jelawat.

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323. -187mb? Didn't know the ADT measures black holes.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24159
Okinawa Typhoon Jelawat WunderMap®
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GOM Rainbow Still/Loop

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39055
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A negative MSLP!



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 SEP 2012 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 30:46:37 N Lon : 35:23:03 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 /-187.7mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 3.2

Center Temp : -58.5C Cloud Region Temp : -57.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 1012km
- Environmental MSLP : -99mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 52.4 degrees

************************************************* ***
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ok IC its by me now, rain lightning and some thunder..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39055
Quoting CybrTeddy:


GOES-13 has been replaced with GOES-14 as far as I have learned.


So we still have limited data then... didn't GOES-14 have to be repositioned?
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Quoting Dakster:
Is GOES-13 still down?

Yes. It has been replaced by GOES-14.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32253
I caught this article the other day, it is really interesting, including a description of some research done for NOAA. The site hosting this article is very politically charged, but the article is not. It is worthwhile reading.

Debris Headed to a Beach Near You?

Sailors Track Tsunami's Destruction from Japan to US

In one event, an estimated 3 billion pounds of buoyant debris washed from Japan’s shores. Here's a firsthand account of where some of that went.

Just one quote, startling and sad at the same time,

"In Oregon, where a length of dock washed up on Agate Beach near Newport, disaster tourism is so prevalent that county officials were reluctant to see the dock removed, citing the boost to the local economy from disaster beachcombers."
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
Quoting Dakster:
Is GOES-13 still down?


GOES-13 has been replaced with GOES-14 as far as I have learned.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24159
Interesting, that non-tropical or maybe even sub-tropical low that might develop over the central Gulf coast would be associated with the remnants of Norman.

Quoting
GTcooliebai:

Now remember guys the 2002 Atlantic Hurricane Season came to an abrupt end when the last named storm dissipated on Oct. 4. and that was an El-Nino year as well.


And so did 2006. However, 2009 featured Hurricane Ida develop in the SW Caribbean in the month of November.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24159
storms look like they are slowing down..come on..push a lil more westward before you die out..geez LOL..........
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Is GOES-13 still down?
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314. JLPR2
Quoting GTcooliebai:
It seems as though everyone is getting in on the action tonight, I wonder if Caribboy is getting any rain by him?


Nope.
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.......................GFS at 96 hours
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39055
Quoting icmoore:


Yep, I knew you'ld be on it! It's coming but wow the moon was beautiful before the clouds covered it.


Oops could be one of those Gilda Radner moments, :Never mind" 'cause a lot seems to be dissipating before it gets here.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
Jedkins probably has the rains already, just about on me now..
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Bring it!

It seems as though everyone is getting in on the action tonight, I wonder if Caribboy is getting any rain by him?
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39055
Quoting GTcooliebai:
What's that it's raining by me? I can't believe it!
LOL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39055
What's that it's raining by me? I can't believe it!
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Bring it!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
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Quoting BillyinSeoul:
Seems to be a lot more rain than the other 2. I'm getting the feeling it is going to run right up the center of the island. There is not a lot of water off the ocean at this time. Sanba was throwing water on the street. HOpe to get to visit the eye on Jelawat.


Looks like its almost to Naha. Kadena Airbase gust to 92MPH

Link
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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
740 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

FLZ042-048>051-055-290030-
CITRUS-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-PINELLAS-MANAT EE-
740 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.NOW...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT PINE
ISLAND...BAYPORT...HERNANDO BEACH AND BAYONET POINT...UNTIL 830 PM
EDT. GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39055
I have a feeling that Norman and I are going to be good friends soon.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
301. washingtonian115
12:16 AM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

If something can develop it will have the necessary ingredients to become a strong hurricane.
Dry air has been a hinder the entire season...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17073
300. HuracanTaino
12:16 AM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
There is expected to be a trough that is suppose to be strong and swing down across the U.S sometime next week.So that should keep the gulf and caribbean close for business for awhile.
Yes, perhaps close till next year, will see....
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299. LargoFl
12:16 AM GMT on September 29, 2012
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298. Civicane49
12:15 AM GMT on September 29, 2012
Wind history of Nadine:

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297. LargoFl
12:15 AM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting icmoore:


Yep, I knew you'ld be on it! It's coming but wow the moon was beautiful before the clouds covered it.
yeah sure was a nice view huh..winds picking up here, rain should be here any minute by me
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296. washingtonian115
12:14 AM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

Where is it? Do not see ANYTHIG. Is it that low level swirl?
I was confused as to which one was the T.C.He fugly!.But fugly Norman does classify as a T.C.You know there was a movie that came out this year called Norman with the living dead walking everywhere.Norman looks like one of the dead.Ewww.
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295. Civicane49
12:14 AM GMT on September 29, 2012
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
294. GTcooliebai
12:14 AM GMT on September 29, 2012
Now remember guys the 2002 Atlantic Hurricane Season came to an abrupt end when the last named storm dissipated on Oct. 4. and that was an El-Nino year as well.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
293. wxchaser97
12:12 AM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Absolutely correct, plus the models are showing a favorable upper level environment taking place in the future. TCHP is insane high as well. Watch it closely.

If something can develop it will have the necessary ingredients to become a strong hurricane.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
292. icmoore
12:12 AM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:


Yep, I knew you'ld be on it! It's coming but wow the moon was beautiful before the clouds covered it.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
291. Maineweatherguy20023
12:11 AM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting winter123:
Why on earth was this named? It's a highly sheared blob.

Where is it? Do not see ANYTHIG. Is it that low level swirl?
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290. LargoFl
12:09 AM GMT on September 29, 2012
almost on me.............
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289. LargoFl
12:07 AM GMT on September 29, 2012
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288. CybrTeddy
12:07 AM GMT on September 29, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Upper-level ridging is going to develop across the East Pacific, South Gulf of Mexico, and West Caribbean as we head through the first two weeks of October. Normal late-season tropical activity setup.

Rina 2011:



Paula 2010:



Ida 2009:



Paloma 2008:



...the list goes on and on.


Absolutely correct, plus the models are showing a favorable upper level environment taking place in the future. TCHP is insane high as well. Watch it closely.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24159

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.