A Jelawat mystery; moisture associated with TS Norman drenching Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2012

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Powerful Typhoon Jelawat is hammering Japan's Ryukyu Islands as the typhoon steams northeastwards towards Okinawa at 12 mph. Jelawat has weakened to a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and an increase in wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots. At 7 pm local time, the winds today at Shimoji Shima Island were 66 mph, gusting to 85 mph. Jelawat has dumped 308.5 mm (12.1") rain in 12 hours at Tarama Airport. Satellite loops and radar loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 33 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are in close agreement that Jelawat will pass over or very close to Okinawa, Japan, as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm or Category 1 typhoon on Sunday. Wind shear will continue to increase over Jelawat for the remainder of its life, causing a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Japan's southern Ryukyu Islands at 11:05 pm local time on September 28, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

A Jelawat mystery
Jelawat has had a classic appearance on satellite imagery during its long stint as a Super Typhoon, with a large symmetric eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. However, at two points in its life--for several hours on September 25 (Figure 2), and again near 08 UTC September 27--both visible and infrared satellite images showed a very odd boundary extending north-northwestwards from the northeast side of the eye for about 50 miles. I've never seen any such feature in a tropical cyclone, and am a loss to explain what is going on. The typhoon was not close enough to any land areas for this to be a topographic effect, and there wasn't any obvious dry air or significant wind shear that could have caused a perturbation like this.


Figure 2. High resolution visible (left) and infrared (right) satellite imagery of Super Typhoon Jelawat from the new Suomi VIIRS instrument, taken at 0431 UTC on September 25, 2012. At the time, Jelawat was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. A very odd line appears along the north side of the eye. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, Colorado State University.
Brian Tang

Nadine a hurricane again
Non-stop Nadine has regenerated to hurricane strength again, as the long-lived storm enters its 16th day of life. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next seven days, but moisture associated with Nadine has flowed eastwards over Spain, bringing heavy rains and flooding problems. The GFS model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure on Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die. The 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will hang around an extra two days, finally getting pulled northeastward over cold waters next Friday. Nadine is already in eighth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 2002: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Nadine, 2012: 16.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 8:30 am EDT Friday, September 28, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 70 mph, and would be declared a hurricane 3 hours later. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Norman forms near Baja, Mexico; associated moisture feeding heavy rains in Texas
Tropical Storm Norman has formed this morning near the tip of Baja, Mexico, and promises to be a potent rain-maker for Mexico and the Southern U.S. Norman's moisture will feed the formation of an extratropical storm that will form in South Texas on Saturday. The storm's center will potentially move over the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday, but the storm will probably not have enough time over water to convert to a tropical system. The storm will bring heavy flooding rains to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Flooding has already been observed in West Texas this morning. Midland-Odessa picked up 3.12” of rain so far today, making it the 3rd wettest September day on record. The wettest day in city history is August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.


Figure 4. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman is expected to surge eastwards and bring heavy rains to much of Texas and the North Gulf Coast. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

New African wave may develop next week
A tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Sunday will develop into a tropical depression by next Wednesday, predicts today's 06Z run of the NOGAPS model. The wave is predicted to recurve to the north more than 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting wxchaser97:
...NADINE FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR AT LEAST FIVE MORE DAYS...
11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 28
Location: 31.0°N 35.5°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 31.0N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 32.4N 36.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 34.6N 36.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 36.0N 37.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 37.5N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Yes! I smell a record about to be broken.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
...NADINE FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR AT LEAST FIVE MORE DAYS...
11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 28
Location: 31.0°N 35.5°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 31.0N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 32.4N 36.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 34.6N 36.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 36.0N 37.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 37.5N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting docrod:


Ground not cracking here in the FL Keys. I would send you some precip if I could ... take care - Rod

Thanks.
It's been a strange rainy-season.
Torrential rains with floods and landslides, between periods of very dry.
Not the 'usual' stuff at all.

None of those dreary days of continuous drizzle that we used to have when the ITCZ parked overhead and dripped.....
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385. etxwx
Pacific Storm Tracker Jelawat Update 22A
10:30 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 29, Japan time: Very shortly, the area where you stand on Okinawa could experience an unexpected calm period as the eye of Typhoon Jelawat passes over the island. No rain, no wind, unexpected sunshine and clear skies, although the ears may feel the same effect as if you were sent airborne 39,000 feet aboard an airliner. Resist all temptation to venture outside. You may feel as safe as in your mother’s arms, but at any instant, the rain and fierce winds could whip up again, worse than before and in the opposite direction. Be smart. Be safe.
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Quoting pottery:

HOPING for some decent rains from that mess.
It's been unusually dry and hot for the last several weeks.
Ground is dry and cracking up already. I can't remember seeing this in Sept before....


Ground not cracking here in the FL Keys. I would send you some precip if I could ... take care - Rod
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I know you and Cody like to be pedantic, so I'll humor you guys with an explanation.

"3z this morning" obviously meant 11:00 PM eastern time yesterday (Thursday evening). 'Twas surely incorrect to use the terms that I did, but I'm not used to intermingling Zulu time and standard time in everyday life.

There. Happy?

3z this morning is not a correct term, but I'm still not happy. Come on over to chat.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
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The Kadena air force base is currently reporting wind gusts up to 112 mph. Tokashiki is reporting wind gusts to 132 mph.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I know you and Cody like to be pedantic, so I'll humor you guys with an explanation.

"3z this morning" obviously meant 11:00 PM eastern time yesterday (Thursday evening). 'Twas surely incorrect to use the terms that I did, but I'm not used to intermingling Zulu time and standard time.

There. Happy?

Universal time is just that, not morning, afternoon, day night, etc. So no! I'm not happy!

Go to chat.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
Quoting wxchaser97:

I was gone then, if I am getting the time correctly. Wait, 3z this morning?


I know you and Cody like to be pedantic, so I'll humor you guys with an explanation.

"3z this morning" obviously meant 11:00 PM eastern time yesterday (Thursday evening). 'Twas surely incorrect to use the terms that I did, but I'm not used to intermingling Zulu time and standard time in everyday life.

There. Happy?
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377. etxwx
This SAFE system may get a work out this weekend in San Antonio:
KSAT TV story and video here

The San Antonio Flood Emergency -- or SAFE -- System is a network of signs that give motorists directions for alternate routes around flooded low-water crossings
The idea is if people are shown alternate routes, they'll be less tempted to go around barriers and get caught in high water. "We just want to make sure that we are proactive in having a program that can educate the community and let them know where there's areas where we typically do experience high water and why its just a better decision that if you see high water that they just turn around and go a different direction," said April Alcoser, spokesperson for the San Antonio Department of Public Works.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Patrap that is a very lovely poem for lack of a better description. I'm beginning to think Erudite/ Marine maybe synonyms. There's one full jarhead.


That's Neil Young's "Harvest Moon" Song Lyrics.


"On this Harvest Moon"


Im mo a Right brained Lyricist u could say.

But thanx fer sho gordy.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
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Patrap that is a very lovely poem for lack of a better description. I'm beginning to think Erudite/ Marine maybe synonyms. There's one full jarhead.
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Quoting CaribBoy:


I need to move there. They always have interesting weather.
Watch when you move there all the interesting weather moves elsewhere. :)
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well people understand me, so I must make some sense. ;)

Some people understand you, others though... No matter what you are a good person/forecaster so far.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
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Quoting KoritheMan:


You make no sense.

Well people understand me, so I must make some sense. ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
Quoting bigwes6844:
Jelawat still pounding Okinawa. refreshes every minute.


I need to move there. They always have interesting weather.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6103
Quoting Skyepony:


It's so hard to see it well from GOES-14. I try to factor out the smear & look at it from polar sats. Seems to have looked better all day.. Suddenly it looks like it might be firing from a center too. The last frame isn't quite as fired up as the one before. Maybe OSCAT will catch it in a bit. Click pic for loop.


HOPING for some decent rains from that mess.
It's been unusually dry and hot for the last several weeks.
Ground is dry and cracking up already. I can't remember seeing this in Sept before....
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It peaked around 3z this morning.

I was gone then, if I am getting the time correctly. Wait, 3z this morning?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Can we say drought buster?? What an impressive amount of rain coverage for Texas!

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That makes no sense.


You make no sense.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It peaked around 3z this morning.

That makes no sense.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
ASCAT showing Nadine still looking really good and I think Nadine could still strengthen some more.


I will have a blog update out in the next few hours.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
359. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37779
Quoting wxchaser97:

Well it wasn't looking the best when I left for school, Norman must have looked better when I was gone.


It peaked around 3z this morning.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Somehow? It wasn't really all that surprising; the circulation just needed to consolidate.

Well it wasn't looking the best when I left for school, Norman must have looked better when I was gone.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
On the canefever link everything was there except 30 to 40 knots shear. Seems to be a high just behind it though.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Even though I wasn't here for Jose it never looked like a TS, Norman somehow fit all classification requirements.


Somehow? It wasn't really all that surprising; the circulation just needed to consolidate.
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Jelawat still pounding Okinawa. refreshes every minute.
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2574
Quoting KoritheMan:


Except Norman actually looked like a tropical storm. Jose didn't at any point, ever.

Even though I wasn't here for Jose it never looked like a TS, Norman somehow fit all classification requirements.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
351. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting gordydunnot:
I was just looking at that Sky, the only thing missing from system in the C.A. is to much shear. Otherwise I think it would be trouble for sure.


It's so hard to see it well from GOES-14. I try to factor out the smear & look at it from polar sats. Seems to have looked better all day.. Suddenly it looks like it might be firing from a center too. The last frame isn't quite as fired up as the one before. Maybe OSCAT will catch it in a bit. Click pic for loop.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37779
Quoting allancalderini:
Norman is the worst tropical storm depression ever and people talk about Jose.


Except Norman actually looked like a tropical storm. Jose didn't at any point, ever.
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Come a little bit closer
Hear what I have to say
Just like children sleepin'
We could dream this night away.

But there's a full moon risin'
Let's go dancin' in the light
We know where the music's playin'
Let's go out and feel the night.

Because I'm still in love with you
I want to see you dance again
Because I'm still in love with you
On this harvest moon.

When we were strangers
I watched you from afar
When we were lovers
I loved you with all my heart.

But now it's gettin' late
And the moon is climbin' high
I want to celebrate
See it shinin' in your eye.

Because I'm still in love with you
I want to see you dance again
Because I'm still in love with you
On this harvest moon.


"On this Harvest Moon"


Look For The Harvest Moon This Weekend



Take a moment to gaze at the beautiful harvest moon this Saturday, September 29th.
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348. Skyepony (Mod)
ASCAT missed it too but caught Nadine..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37779
Norman is the worst tropical storm depression ever and people talk about Jose.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
It seems as though everyone is getting in on the action tonight, I wonder if Caribboy is getting any rain by him?


Of course no.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6103
I was just looking at that Sky, the only thing missing from system in the C.A. is to much shear. Otherwise I think it would be trouble for sure.
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344. Skyepony (Mod)
No suprise windsat missed most of that wave in the Central Atlantic. Did catch a few 30kt winds at the leading edge..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37779
Comet due in 2013 could be brighter than the full moon. Late next year, there will be a new object in the night sky nearly 10 times brighter than the full moon. This temporary attraction, called C/2012 S1, is a comet that has likely never passed through our inner solar system before, so it's larger and more reflective than those our sun has already blasted.

C/2012 S1 won't just be bright; it'll be large enough to see without the need for binoculars or a telescope. Its brightness magnitude is expected to be -16, with the Sun by comparison being -26. Comet Hale-Bopp, seen above, was magnitude -1 when it passed through our solar system in 1997. Astronomers are predicting that C/2012 S1 will appear in the sky near the sun and horizon, so it should be fairly easy to pinpoint without a sky map. Should it contain a large amount of gas beneath its icy exterior, the comet could sprout a massive glowing tail as it nears the sun and the ice is melted away, making it even easier to see — not to mention much cooler looking.

Scientists tracking C/2012 S1 have pointed out that the comet's brightness isn't entirely guaranteed, but even if their estimates are off it should still be visible to the naked eye. That wasn't the case with Kohoutek, a comet that entered our solar system in 1973 and was expected to be brilliant in the night sky, only to disappoint because it turned out to be mostly rock and not highly reflective ice
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342. Skyepony (Mod)
**Update #18 **There is no change in the status of GOES-13.
***
Update #17***This is a follow up on products with outstanding issues.
GOES-14 product processing and distribution continues to be nominal. No
new impacts due to the GOES-13 anomaly and GOES-14 activation. Routine
and rapid scan (RSO) imaging schedules are available for GOES-14.
GOES-14 is stationary at 105 degrees West with no current plans
to drift
east. GOES-13 remains in an Earth pointing nominal attitude with the
Imager and Sounder in Standby modes while the September 23 anomaly is
being investigated. No estimate on return to operations at this time.
Cause and corrective actions are under investigation. Engineers and
managers are also discussing the results from the test data analysis
and
future way forward.

* ADT (Advanced Dvorak Technique) - Is now confirmed for GOES-14.
* High Density Winds for Sounder WV - GOES-14 satellite ID typo
was fixed.
* SFOV DPI (Derived Products Images) - GOES-14 calibration tables were
updated.
* SFOV Skew-T - GOES-14 calibration tables were updated.
* The GOES-14 AWIPS Puerto Rico Sectors are nominal for all time
periods.
* Volcano PCI (Principal Component Imagery) - updated for GOES-14.

The only products that still have not reached normal GOES-14
operational
status are those that require 30 days of continuous satellite location.
* ASDTA SMOKE (Automated Smoke Detection and Tracking Algorithm)
* GASP (GOES Aerosol and Smoke Product)
* GEO-SST (No NETCDF format)
* GSIP-FD (GOES Surface Insolation Product-Full Disk)

Some SAB interpretive analysis products are functioning normally, but
are challenged due to the GOES-14 perspective at 105 degrees as opposed
to the more complementary (to GOES-West) perspective of a typical
GOES-East at 75 degrees:
* HMS (Hazard Mapping System) Fire and Smoke Detection
* Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Location
*
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37779
Looks like that front will come through us after all next week!
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Watch a Saturn fly-by video composed from real photographs

Awesome photography. This shot is from cassini behind Saturn with the sun back lighting every speck of dust. Hard to believe beautiful.



I found this while looking at some info on C/2012 S1 a comet arriving next year.

Comet due in 2013 could be brighter than the full moon

Late next year, there will be a new object in the night sky nearly 10 times brighter than the full moon. This temporary attraction, called C/2012 S1, is a comet that has likely never passed through our inner solar system before, so it's larger and more reflective than those our sun has already blasted.



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Quoting airmet3:


That reads peak wind from 130 degrees at 61kts at time 0057UTC. This is odd since the ob itself is showing a gust at 75kts.

Yep, I read it wrong, already fixed it.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7724

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.