A Jelawat mystery; moisture associated with TS Norman drenching Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2012

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Powerful Typhoon Jelawat is hammering Japan's Ryukyu Islands as the typhoon steams northeastwards towards Okinawa at 12 mph. Jelawat has weakened to a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and an increase in wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots. At 7 pm local time, the winds today at Shimoji Shima Island were 66 mph, gusting to 85 mph. Jelawat has dumped 308.5 mm (12.1") rain in 12 hours at Tarama Airport. Satellite loops and radar loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 33 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are in close agreement that Jelawat will pass over or very close to Okinawa, Japan, as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm or Category 1 typhoon on Sunday. Wind shear will continue to increase over Jelawat for the remainder of its life, causing a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Japan's southern Ryukyu Islands at 11:05 pm local time on September 28, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

A Jelawat mystery
Jelawat has had a classic appearance on satellite imagery during its long stint as a Super Typhoon, with a large symmetric eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. However, at two points in its life--for several hours on September 25 (Figure 2), and again near 08 UTC September 27--both visible and infrared satellite images showed a very odd boundary extending north-northwestwards from the northeast side of the eye for about 50 miles. I've never seen any such feature in a tropical cyclone, and am a loss to explain what is going on. The typhoon was not close enough to any land areas for this to be a topographic effect, and there wasn't any obvious dry air or significant wind shear that could have caused a perturbation like this.


Figure 2. High resolution visible (left) and infrared (right) satellite imagery of Super Typhoon Jelawat from the new Suomi VIIRS instrument, taken at 0431 UTC on September 25, 2012. At the time, Jelawat was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. A very odd line appears along the north side of the eye. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, Colorado State University.
Brian Tang

Nadine a hurricane again
Non-stop Nadine has regenerated to hurricane strength again, as the long-lived storm enters its 16th day of life. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next seven days, but moisture associated with Nadine has flowed eastwards over Spain, bringing heavy rains and flooding problems. The GFS model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure on Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die. The 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will hang around an extra two days, finally getting pulled northeastward over cold waters next Friday. Nadine is already in eighth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 2002: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Nadine, 2012: 16.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 8:30 am EDT Friday, September 28, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 70 mph, and would be declared a hurricane 3 hours later. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Norman forms near Baja, Mexico; associated moisture feeding heavy rains in Texas
Tropical Storm Norman has formed this morning near the tip of Baja, Mexico, and promises to be a potent rain-maker for Mexico and the Southern U.S. Norman's moisture will feed the formation of an extratropical storm that will form in South Texas on Saturday. The storm's center will potentially move over the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday, but the storm will probably not have enough time over water to convert to a tropical system. The storm will bring heavy flooding rains to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Flooding has already been observed in West Texas this morning. Midland-Odessa picked up 3.12” of rain so far today, making it the 3rd wettest September day on record. The wettest day in city history is August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.


Figure 4. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman is expected to surge eastwards and bring heavy rains to much of Texas and the North Gulf Coast. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

New African wave may develop next week
A tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Sunday will develop into a tropical depression by next Wednesday, predicts today's 06Z run of the NOGAPS model. The wave is predicted to recurve to the north more than 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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6z GFS at 360 hours:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7637
Quoting bcn:
Spain, flooding has caused eight persons dead until now. Nadine?

And last week the break away storm from Nadine, (renamed Karin), killed three folk in the UK.
Not too bad for a storm that has remained stuck in the middle of the Atlantic.
And she hasn't finished yet!
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436. bcn
Spain, flooding has caused the dead of eight persons until now. Nadine?
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Good morning. Nadine is on a downward trend. With conditions only getting worse from here I have a feeling we only have 3-5 days left of her.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7637
434. Skyepony (Mod)
Some storm rainfall totals across STX.
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433. Skyepony (Mod)
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Well Nadine has went from a TD, to a TS, then a cat1 hurricane, back down to a TS, then a subtropical storm, next an extra-tropical storm, back to a TS, and now she is a hurricane again. Nadine has done a lot of crazy things in her life and she still has around a week left.
She's become symbolic of the pause in the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season.

She's also the first named storm to follow Michael, which is the last name depicted in my forecast(lower right.)

The backdrop of this curious forecast, the Trail of Tears, was ordered by President Andrew Jackson, whose greatest claim to fame was the Battle of New Orleans.



OracleDeAtlantis on April 20, 2012:

As the annual hurricane conference draws to a close, I'm reminded of another meeting not long ago, where the wind marched obediently from east to west, delivering its own forecast.

From white clouds and red sticks that worry;
moving swiftly along on a terrible journey.

Hearing not then, but now is here when;
forgotten souls, howl where we'll send.

Lord of the earth, subdue power the air;
make then mark a transition be where.

Unstem rotation, bound to be topped;
a towering, stammering, horizon unlocked.


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431. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #49
TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR (T1218)
15:00 PM JST September 29 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Ewiniar (990 hPa) located at 36.2N 147.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
==================
210 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 41.9N 155.8E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #73
TYPHOON JELAWAT (T1217)
15:00 PM JST September 29 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea Around Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Jelawat (935 hPa) located at 26.9N 128.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 15 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
270 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
240 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 32.8N 135.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Wakayama Prefecture (Japan)
48 HRS: 43.2N 147.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) East of Hokkaido Prefecture (Japan)
72 HRS: 49.2N 166.6E - Extratropical Cyclone East Of The Kiril
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430. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST September 29 2012
===================================

Vortex over Bay of Bengal near 15.5N 84.0E. Center poorly defined on infrared imagery. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over Bay of Bengal between 12.0N to 16.5N west of 85.0E.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0
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I hope this hurricane season list of names does not end up being the only one of the continual 6 year cycle that fails to make it to the letter O. Seems like this list of names is the only one that also failed to have a landfalling major hurricane in the United States and also failed to have a US landfalling hurricane whose name went on to be retired as a result.
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"Here comes the rain Little Darling". L.Charles, La =))
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Quoting Slamguitar:


That looks like the lowest visibility so far!

Wow u cant even see the beach no more!! WOW!!! i love these webcams
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2527
Quoting bigwes6844:
that rain not playing at all its really coming down okinawa


That looks like the lowest visibility so far!
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Okinawa still getting slammed by Jelawat. refreshes every minute
that rain not playing at all its really coming down okinawa
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2527
Typhoon Jelawat:

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Okinawa still getting slammed by Jelawat. refreshes every minute
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2527
Funny how Nadine's history track makes a lasso, while she hasn't actually landed anything. Nice sort of amiable hurricane, she. :-)
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Want to know what it's like to go through a Cat2-3 storm??

Follow the folks stationed around Kadena Air Base in Okinawa right now on Facebook as they post...

http://www.facebook.com/KadenaAirBase
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420. txjac
Quoting Tygor:
This Texas rain is about the most wonderful weather event here in the last two years. I honestly had no idea it was going to blow in or knew it was tropical in nature until it started. Tropical rains definitely have a different smell and feel to them =)


Sitting here wishing it was in Houston. Would love to hear the rain when going to sleep ...nothing better
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Check this out. I saved a few of those Okinawa webcam frames at roughly half hour intervals:



EDIT: Fixed the size.
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Getting our 2nd big downpour of the day, looks like after this is done i'll be up to 3 inches so far and we're no where near done. Keep it coming!
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Just did a blog.

(Yes Grothar, I lied. I didn't go and work out. But I will now.)
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Texas is getting a lot of rain'

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25443
Quoting Grothar:


I don't know, Sherwood, looks like the GFS has a pretty good handle on it. :)



Ahahahaha
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Nadine's models are forming a giant question mark over the Atlantic. As if they've given up all hope of figuring out where she'll go next.



I don't know, Sherwood, looks like the GFS has a pretty good handle on it. :)

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25443
Quoting fmhurricane2009:


Nadine is trying to become the Grothar of all storms. :P


I can' want until the next century to see how many records will be broken.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25443
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Nadine's models are forming a giant question mark over the Atlantic. As if they've given up all hope of figuring out where she'll go next.



Now that is just classic.
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Nadine's models are forming a giant question mark over the Atlantic. As if they've given up all hope of figuring out where she'll go next.

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Quoting docrod:


Ground not cracking here in the FL Keys. I would send you some precip if I could ... take care - Rod

Some places in my area aren't completely dry from Isaac yet.
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Quoting Grothar:


Si, Claro que si.


Nadine is trying to become the Grothar of all storms. :P
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Quoting pottery:

May I have some, too?
Obligado.


Si, Claro que si.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25443
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Watch when you move there all the interesting weather moves elsewhere. :)


I ve been unlucky in 2012... but I may not in 2013 lol
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
Quoting Grothar:
I promised Texas a little rain, so here it is.



May I have some, too?
Obligado.
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401. Tygor
This Texas rain is about the most wonderful weather event here in the last two years. I honestly had no idea it was going to blow in or knew it was tropical in nature until it started. Tropical rains definitely have a different smell and feel to them =)
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25443
I promised Texas a little rain, so here it is.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25443

Quoting BahaHurican:
Wilma.
Nope..that's Mitch.
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Man Norman was one of the most intense storms I have ever seen, sarcasm flag is on. As for Nadine, she will continue to slowly wander the Atlantic for a while longer.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
Norman's final Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) total, unless it miraculously intensifies into a tropical storm in the face of 40 knots of wind shear again, is a whopping (not really) 0.2825 units. As a fun fact, this is operationally the lowest ACE of any named storm in the East Pacific since Tropical Storm Karina in the 2008 season.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31548
Excerpts from.
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 66
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012
.
AND NADINE COULD THEN
BEGIN TO MEANDER AIMLESSLY FOR A DAY OR TWO. A SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IS ANTICIPATED BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOPEFULLY...NADINE WILL BE CARRIED
EASTWARD BY THESE WINDS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. FOR NOW...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL HAVE TENACIOUS
NADINE FOR AT LEAST 5 MORE DAYS.

.
My comments on the NHC Discussion.
lol.....I guess after 5 days she might begin to meander with aim.
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It's starting to clear up where that webcam is that bigwes6844 posted.

Shouldn't last too long.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yes! I smell a record about to be broken.

It is possible and with Nadine anything is possible.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
As creative things go, I'm just so thankful I can appreciate them. Or as they say, I know it when I see it.
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HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 66
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

THERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT ON NADINE THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH A LITTLE BIT TILTED IN THE VERTICAL...THE CENTER CONTINUES
TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO
THE WEST AND RESTRICTED EVERYWHERE ELSE. BASED ON DVORAK
T-NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KNOTS. NADINE HAS
OVERCOME THE SHEAR SO FAR...AND THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK THAT IT
IS NOT GOING TO SURVIVE THE CURRENT 15 TO 20 KT OF SHEAR AND STAY
AS A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...THE STRONGEST ONE SO FAR...IS DANGEROUSLY APPROACHING
NADINE. MOST LIKELY...THE INTERACTION WITH THIS TROUGH...AND THE
EFFECTS OF COLD WATERS...WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.
HOWEVER...NADINE COULD ESCAPE THE TROUGH AGAIN AND MANAGE NOT TO
WEAKEN AS MUCH AS INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

NADINE IS ALREADY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF THIS MOTION
FOR ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST IS HIGH. AFTER THAT...NADINE WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE
BASE OF THE WESTERLIES AND VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. AT THAT
TIME...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES VERY DIVERGENT...AND NADINE COULD THEN
BEGIN TO MEANDER AIMLESSLY FOR A DAY OR TWO. A SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IS ANTICIPATED BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOPEFULLY...NADINE WILL BE CARRIED
EASTWARD BY THESE WINDS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. FOR NOW...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL HAVE TENACIOUS
NADINE FOR AT LEAST 5 MORE DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 31.0N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 32.4N 36.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 34.6N 36.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 36.0N 37.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 37.5N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Quoting wxchaser97:
...NADINE FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR AT LEAST FIVE MORE DAYS...
11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 28
Location: 31.0°N 35.5°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 31.0N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 32.4N 36.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 34.6N 36.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 36.0N 37.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 37.5N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Yes! I smell a record about to be broken.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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