A Jelawat mystery; moisture associated with TS Norman drenching Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2012

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Powerful Typhoon Jelawat is hammering Japan's Ryukyu Islands as the typhoon steams northeastwards towards Okinawa at 12 mph. Jelawat has weakened to a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and an increase in wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots. At 7 pm local time, the winds today at Shimoji Shima Island were 66 mph, gusting to 85 mph. Jelawat has dumped 308.5 mm (12.1") rain in 12 hours at Tarama Airport. Satellite loops and radar loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 33 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are in close agreement that Jelawat will pass over or very close to Okinawa, Japan, as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm or Category 1 typhoon on Sunday. Wind shear will continue to increase over Jelawat for the remainder of its life, causing a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Japan's southern Ryukyu Islands at 11:05 pm local time on September 28, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

A Jelawat mystery
Jelawat has had a classic appearance on satellite imagery during its long stint as a Super Typhoon, with a large symmetric eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. However, at two points in its life--for several hours on September 25 (Figure 2), and again near 08 UTC September 27--both visible and infrared satellite images showed a very odd boundary extending north-northwestwards from the northeast side of the eye for about 50 miles. I've never seen any such feature in a tropical cyclone, and am a loss to explain what is going on. The typhoon was not close enough to any land areas for this to be a topographic effect, and there wasn't any obvious dry air or significant wind shear that could have caused a perturbation like this.


Figure 2. High resolution visible (left) and infrared (right) satellite imagery of Super Typhoon Jelawat from the new Suomi VIIRS instrument, taken at 0431 UTC on September 25, 2012. At the time, Jelawat was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. A very odd line appears along the north side of the eye. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, Colorado State University.
Brian Tang

Nadine a hurricane again
Non-stop Nadine has regenerated to hurricane strength again, as the long-lived storm enters its 16th day of life. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next seven days, but moisture associated with Nadine has flowed eastwards over Spain, bringing heavy rains and flooding problems. The GFS model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure on Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die. The 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will hang around an extra two days, finally getting pulled northeastward over cold waters next Friday. Nadine is already in eighth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 2002: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Nadine, 2012: 16.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 8:30 am EDT Friday, September 28, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 70 mph, and would be declared a hurricane 3 hours later. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Norman forms near Baja, Mexico; associated moisture feeding heavy rains in Texas
Tropical Storm Norman has formed this morning near the tip of Baja, Mexico, and promises to be a potent rain-maker for Mexico and the Southern U.S. Norman's moisture will feed the formation of an extratropical storm that will form in South Texas on Saturday. The storm's center will potentially move over the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday, but the storm will probably not have enough time over water to convert to a tropical system. The storm will bring heavy flooding rains to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Flooding has already been observed in West Texas this morning. Midland-Odessa picked up 3.12” of rain so far today, making it the 3rd wettest September day on record. The wettest day in city history is August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.


Figure 4. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman is expected to surge eastwards and bring heavy rains to much of Texas and the North Gulf Coast. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

New African wave may develop next week
A tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Sunday will develop into a tropical depression by next Wednesday, predicts today's 06Z run of the NOGAPS model. The wave is predicted to recurve to the north more than 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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So nice to see W TX green for a change...

Link
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Well if ADT is right Nadine is a 80kt hurricane.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 978.2mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.8 4.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : -30.1C Cloud Region Temp : -54.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
With the pattern appearing to show a lot of big, deep troughs occurring for the remainder of the season, maybe we'll get something like this at some point towards the end of our season:



That sure would be interesting.

So a tripod would be interesting??? Anyway there is a chance for a strong storm to form and I don't think the season is over yet.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm glad the image is hosted by tripod and all, but we'd actually like to see it. :P

OK smart one. Look again.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7946
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
With the pattern appearing to show a lot of big, deep troughs occurring for the remainder of the season, maybe we'll get something like this at some point towards the end of our season:



That sure would be interesting.

I'm glad the image is hosted by tripod and all, but we'd actually like to see it. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32526
482. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4 cyclones in the western Pacific Ocean..
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481. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22
21:00 PM JST September 29 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 13.5N 112.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 13.4N 112.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21
21:00 PM JST September 29 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea Near Chuuk Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 12.8N 151.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 16.2N 146.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Island

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #51
TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR (T1218)
15:00 PM JST September 29 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Ewiniar (992 hPa) located at 37.8N 149.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 23 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
==================
210 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 43.0N 161.1E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #75
TYPHOON JELAWAT (T1217)
21:00 PM JST September 29 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Jelawat (940 hPa) located at 27.9N 130.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 17 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
270 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
240 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 35.2N 138.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Tokai Region (Japan)
48 HRS: 45.4N 152.4E - Extratropical Cyclone In Kuril Waters
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With the pattern appearing to show a lot of big, deep troughs occurring for the remainder of the season, maybe we'll get something like this at some point towards the end of our season:



That sure would be interesting.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7946
If the writing in the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook is correct, the NHC is going to upgrade Nadine to a hurricane again.

5am: ...NADINE A LITTLE WEAKER...
FORECASTER BLAKE

8am: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 655 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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The culprit:
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DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...CENTRAL/ERN GULF STATES...

LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD. BOTH MODELS INSIST A NOTABLE SFC REFLECTION
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE OVER THE UPPER TX COAST
THEN TRACK INTO ECNTRL MS BY 01/12Z. SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT ACROSS NRN
AL WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND WITH A FOCUSED LLJ ON
THE ORDER OF 45KT THIS WILL ENSURE SFC DEW POINTS AOA 70F WILL
SPREAD INLAND AHEAD OF SURGING FRONTAL ZONE. ONE NEGATIVE FOR
POSSIBLE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE POOR LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD PSEUDO-ADIABATIC PROFILES WILL BE
COMMON AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT SBCAPE TO ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG. WITH
SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 50KT ACROSS
THIS REGION MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR
SUSTAINING ORGANIZED...POTENTIALLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
AT THIS TIME
WILL ONLY INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. IF IT
BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED THEN ENHANCED SEVERE PROBS WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS THIS
REGION.


..DARROW.. 09/29/2012




this could bring me some fun if we can get the clouds to break a lot..Maybe the llj and mlj will shear the cloud deck apart
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NADINE NOW FOR 17 DAYS!!! tied with bertha
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Nadine's pulled herself together quite a bit in the last few hours. This new microwave looks a lot better than the one I posted on the last page:



I still think the long term trend will be weakening though as shear increases and SSTs decrease.

One thing that will probably be in Nadine's favor is the extremely cold upper-level environment. Chris had one as well and managed to intensify into a hurricane over 22C waters.

200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.5 -56.8 -57.0 -57.1 -57.1 -57.3 -57.1 -56.9 -56.9 -57.3 -56.5 -56.1

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32526
Quoting aspectre:
463 wxchaser97: I see Nadine has weakened to a 70mph TS.

So where'd ya see that? The most recent ATCF still has it listed as a 65knot hurricane

BTW, Nadine has managed to doublecross herself

The most recent NHC advisory has Nadine a 70mph TS, but they will probably bump her back up to a hurricane.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
463 wxchaser97: I see Nadine has weakened to a 70mph TS.

So where'd ya see that? The most recent ATCF still has it listed as a 65knot hurricane.
(Never mind... 467 TropicalAnalystwx13 explained: NHC dropped the storm down to tropical storm strength at 5am EDT, but they're going to have to go right back up at 11am EDT.)

BTW, Nadine has managed to doublecross herself
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An eyewall is already wrapping around the center, I don't think Nadine is going to be weakening for a day or so.
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Norman is such a monster:



It's still a TD as of the latest ATCF update... I really don't know about that though.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7946
Nadine's pulled herself together quite a bit in the last few hours. This new microwave looks a lot better than the one I posted on the last page:



I still think the long term trend will be weakening though as shear increases and SSTs decrease.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7946
Check out this video from Okinawa a few hours ago during Jelawat:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embed ded&v=oUiROwMLx-o

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
NHC dropped the storm down to tropical storm strength at 5am EDT, but they're going to have to go right back up at 11am EDT.


That looks kinda like Chris from earlier this year, most likely a hurricane at 11am.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
NHC dropped the storm down to tropical storm strength at 5am EDT, but they're going to have to go right back up at 11am EDT.

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a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
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Tropical cyclones (globally) which have developed since Nadine developed:

[Eastern Pacific]
Tropical Storm Kristy (50kts)
Hurricane Lane (70kts)
Major Hurricane Miriam (100kts)
Tropical Storm Norman (40kts)

[Western Pacific]
Super Typhoon Sanba (150kts)
Super Typhoon Jelawat (140kts)
Severe Tropical Storm Ewiniar (55kts)

Rather impressive I must say!
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Gulf of Mexico Radar

Link
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Good morning everyone, I see Nadine has weakened to a 70mph TS.
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vis. area north of eastern cuba got allittle spin
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Good morning.

a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
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Dramatic video by chaser James Reynolds in Okinawa.

Link
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As Sherwoodforest pointed out last night......?

Current track for Nadine.


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458. etxwx
Jelawat Update 23 from Dave Ornauer, Pacific Storm Tracker Blog:
3:30 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 29, Japan time: Wow. To say this storm is fierce doesn’t begin to describe it. The PHOTOS from around the island on Facebook and other venues are just eye-popping. Cars blown over onto their sides or tops. Tree limbs and power lines blown over, satellite dishes bent into the shape of tacos. Nasty stuff, to say the least. Kadena Air Base reported the most fierce winds at 74 mph sustained with 111-mph gusts, though it sure felt worse in some areas. Jelawat passed 9 miles north of Kadena at 11:08 a.m.

The good news, the worst should soon be over for the folks on Okinawa, and Jelawat should next begin an express beeline journey toward the Kanto Plain. Fleet Activities Yokosuka plans to set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 at 4 p.m. and other U.S. bases will likely do the same in advance of the storm. Jelawat should pass northwest of those bases around mid-evening Sunday, packing sustained 58-mph winds and 69-mph gusts, just below typhoon strength but still pretty powerful.

On Okinawa, expect winds to diminish below 58 mph around 5 p.m., below 40 mph around 9 p.m. and below 40 mph around 3 a.m.

Especially with the damage we’ve seen in photos and video, do NOT venture outside during TCCOR 1-R (recovery). Assessment teams will be out surveying the damage and repair crews will be carting off debris and putting things back in place for awhile. Wait for Storm Watch to be issued before heading anywhere. Be smart and be safe!
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1516
Quoting etxwx:


Indeed you did and it is now pitter-pattering on my roof. Thank you! The powers of Herr Blobmeister are great indeed and should never be doubted. The power of the blob even overcame my freshly cleaned gutters rain repellent.

Where should I send the banana nut bread and donuts? :)


Well, you asked last week and I said I would see what I could do. Stay dry, though.
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Sheesh, not nuther un for us.
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454. etxwx
Quoting Grothar:
I promised Texas a little rain, so here it is.




Indeed you did and it is now pitter-pattering on my roof. Thank you! The powers of Herr Blobmeister are great indeed and should never be doubted. The power of the blob even overcame my freshly cleaned gutters rain repellent.

Where should I send the banana nut bread and donuts? :)
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1516
Good morning, everyone and evening to those in that time zone. The main rain has just begun hit me here. We've gone from an inch of rain forecast to 2 -3 inches, to 4 inches and got up now to a forecast of 4 to 8. I don't think I'll need to water my garden today or tomorrow.
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Houston-Galveston
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation

Range248 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting sandiquiz:
Morning Pat.... I think we wil have to find a Churchillian replacement. He has been dead for 47 years!
As to the "not too bad... " comment - it was my attempt at British sarcasm !


I know..I jus Like Churchill and read all his stuff..as its good reading.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Morning Pat.... I think we wil have to find a Churchillian replacement. He has been dead for 47 years!
As to the "not too bad... " comment - it was my attempt at British sarcasm !
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Jelawat has moved away from Okinawa and will likely brush Japan in the next day or so as a weakening system.



Okinawa had a wind gust of 180mph.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7946
looks like the windwards should finally be getting rain no mention anything tropical http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&i ssuedby=SJU&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossa ry=1
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Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' Pat.. viewed your page and looked at the pups.. I'm glad everything turned out okay.


Thanx irg.

They a Handful and then some already.
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Good morning folks!...............
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Mornin' Pat.. viewed your page and looked at the pups.. I'm glad everything turned out okay.
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This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Louisiana...south Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters. Today and tonight... Showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. A few storms may briefly become strong with wind gusts to near 40 mph. Heavy rainfall will be possible...especially across southwest Mississippi and western portions of southeast Louisiana near the Atchafalaya River basin. Sunday through Friday... Showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday. A strong to severe storm or two cannot be ruled out.

The main threat with these storms will be damaging winds...occasional lightning and very heavy rainfall. Accumulation of persistent rainfall may total 2 to 4 inches through Sunday afternoon in many locations with locally heavier amounts possible. If the track of the low pressure is further south than currently forecast...the threat of heavy rainfall would become more widespread across the area.

Strong south winds developing Sunday will likely prompt Small Craft Advisories across the coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely continue into Monday after cold frontal passage with frequent gusts 20 knots or greater.

Tides are expected to increase to one half to one foot above normal Sunday into early Monday due to strong south winds...particularly along south facing shores. Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Emergency managers are encouraged to monitor the weather through the weekend for localized flood potential due to persistent rains and elevated tides.

There is an increased potential for local flooding in areas where water remains from Hurricane Isaac.
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View N Amer/Pacific image
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New Orleans
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
6z GFS at 360 hours:



Run is clean from Tropical development.
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And last week the break away storm from Nadine, (renamed Karin), killed three folk in the UK.
Not too bad


.."Not too bad" ?

Lordy, where's Churchill when ya need Him?
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6z GFS at 360 hours:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.