A Jelawat mystery; moisture associated with TS Norman drenching Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2012

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Powerful Typhoon Jelawat is hammering Japan's Ryukyu Islands as the typhoon steams northeastwards towards Okinawa at 12 mph. Jelawat has weakened to a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and an increase in wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots. At 7 pm local time, the winds today at Shimoji Shima Island were 66 mph, gusting to 85 mph. Jelawat has dumped 308.5 mm (12.1") rain in 12 hours at Tarama Airport. Satellite loops and radar loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 33 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are in close agreement that Jelawat will pass over or very close to Okinawa, Japan, as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm or Category 1 typhoon on Sunday. Wind shear will continue to increase over Jelawat for the remainder of its life, causing a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Japan's southern Ryukyu Islands at 11:05 pm local time on September 28, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

A Jelawat mystery
Jelawat has had a classic appearance on satellite imagery during its long stint as a Super Typhoon, with a large symmetric eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. However, at two points in its life--for several hours on September 25 (Figure 2), and again near 08 UTC September 27--both visible and infrared satellite images showed a very odd boundary extending north-northwestwards from the northeast side of the eye for about 50 miles. I've never seen any such feature in a tropical cyclone, and am a loss to explain what is going on. The typhoon was not close enough to any land areas for this to be a topographic effect, and there wasn't any obvious dry air or significant wind shear that could have caused a perturbation like this.


Figure 2. High resolution visible (left) and infrared (right) satellite imagery of Super Typhoon Jelawat from the new Suomi VIIRS instrument, taken at 0431 UTC on September 25, 2012. At the time, Jelawat was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. A very odd line appears along the north side of the eye. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, Colorado State University.
Brian Tang

Nadine a hurricane again
Non-stop Nadine has regenerated to hurricane strength again, as the long-lived storm enters its 16th day of life. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next seven days, but moisture associated with Nadine has flowed eastwards over Spain, bringing heavy rains and flooding problems. The GFS model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure on Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die. The 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will hang around an extra two days, finally getting pulled northeastward over cold waters next Friday. Nadine is already in eighth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 2002: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Nadine, 2012: 16.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 8:30 am EDT Friday, September 28, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 70 mph, and would be declared a hurricane 3 hours later. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Norman forms near Baja, Mexico; associated moisture feeding heavy rains in Texas
Tropical Storm Norman has formed this morning near the tip of Baja, Mexico, and promises to be a potent rain-maker for Mexico and the Southern U.S. Norman's moisture will feed the formation of an extratropical storm that will form in South Texas on Saturday. The storm's center will potentially move over the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday, but the storm will probably not have enough time over water to convert to a tropical system. The storm will bring heavy flooding rains to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Flooding has already been observed in West Texas this morning. Midland-Odessa picked up 3.12” of rain so far today, making it the 3rd wettest September day on record. The wettest day in city history is August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.


Figure 4. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman is expected to surge eastwards and bring heavy rains to much of Texas and the North Gulf Coast. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

New African wave may develop next week
A tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Sunday will develop into a tropical depression by next Wednesday, predicts today's 06Z run of the NOGAPS model. The wave is predicted to recurve to the north more than 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


Snow in Alaska??? What next.

Snow in MI, I hope that's next. What will really be crazy is Nadine becoming a major hurricane:)
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Quoting Patrap:


He is a Auricle, not unlike the Chinese I-Ching, but alas he is much older.


And a right auricle at that. My motto is, "It is better to be a right auricle than a left ventricle, and better to always be a superior vena cava than an inferior vena cava"
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This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Louisiana...south Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters. Today and tonight... Showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. A few storms may briefly become strong with wind gusts to near 40 mph. Heavy rainfall will be possible...especially across southwest Mississippi and western portions of southeast Louisiana near the Atchafalaya River basin. Sunday through Friday... Showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday. A strong to severe storm or two cannot be ruled out.

The main threat with these storms will be damaging winds...occasional lightning and very heavy rainfall. Accumulation of persistent rainfall may total 2 to 4 inches through Sunday afternoon in many locations with locally heavier amounts possible. If the track of the low pressure is further south than currently forecast...the threat of heavy rainfall would become more widespread across the area.

Strong south winds developing Sunday will likely prompt Small Craft Advisories across the coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely continue into Monday after cold frontal passage with frequent gusts 20 knots or greater.

Tides are expected to increase to one half to one foot above normal Sunday into early Monday due to strong south winds...particularly along south facing shores. Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Emergency managers are encouraged to monitor the weather through the weekend for localized flood potential due to persistent rains and elevated tides.

There is an increased potential for local flooding in areas where water remains from Hurricane Isaac.
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New Orleans
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI

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Quoting Tazmanian:
i would like too report that the 1st snow of the season is now falling in Anchorage, AK






Snow in Alaska??? What next.
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Quoting Hangten:


OK. this happens too many times. You always know these things before they publish them. You post an image and say nothing and in a few hours the nhc writes something on it. You have been saying Nadine would go west and back in circles when all models had it going toward the Europe. You give the EURO forecast 3 hours before we get it. You know intensitys of such and you have posted of such waves from Africa days before they are of interest. I am of such opinion perhaps this is not of the lucky guess you mention. I have written of this before and i understand it you do wish to make us aware.


He is a Auricle, not unlike the Chinese I-Ching, but alas he is much older.
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532. txjac
I'm so bummed out ...how is all of this rain missing me???? We got some drizzle ...would love to see some serious rain just because I like it.

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Quoting Grothar:
I think it will be a hurricane at 11.


OK. this happens too many times. You always know these things before they publish them. You post an image and say nothing and in a few hours the nhc writes something on it. You have been saying Nadine would go west and back in circles when all models had it going toward the Europe. You give the EURO forecast 3 hours before we get it. You know intensitys of such and you have posted of such waves from Africa days before they are of interest. I am of such opinion perhaps this is not of the lucky guess you mention. I have written of this before and i understand it you do wish to make us aware.
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i would like too report that the 1st snow of the season is now falling in Anchorage, AK




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Nadine? Honey is dat u ?
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I can't take the sarcastic tone serious :)...
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Today is National "Give Your Soapbox A Rest Day"..in honor of this historic day, there will be no one jumping on his/her or anyone else's soapbox and claiming to put someone in check.

some of you will need to hide your soapbox so you wont be tempted as you use it EVERYDAY

that is all..

Have a great day.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15999
Quoting wxchaser97:
I just looked at the forecast track and saw 2 interesting things. The first is the NHC has Nadine cross over her track again and her becoming an extra-tropical storm at day 5, there is light at the end of the tunnel.
must be playing havoc with the shipping lanes
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40772
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40772
I just looked at the forecast track and saw 2 interesting things. The first is the NHC has Nadine cross over her track again and her becoming an extra-tropical storm at day 5, there is light at the end of the tunnel. As for me trying to make my forecast for her, not much I can do but take her north and stall for now.
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GRO was right..she's a hurricane once again..........
Hurricane NADINE Forecast Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT24 KNHC 291439
TCMAT4

HURRICANE NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 68
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 36.2W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 36.2W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 36.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 34.8N 36.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 36.4N 37.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 36.7N 38.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.3N 38.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 35.5N 38.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 35.5N 36.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 38.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 36.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40772
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
931 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 920 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED STREET
FLOODING IN ABILENE...SEVERAL ROADS IN ABILENE WERE BARRICADED.
MANY COUNTY ROADS SOUTH OF MERKEL...IN THE HILLS...WERE ALSO
CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER IN TAYLOR COUNTY. AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAINFALL.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ABILENE...BRADSHAW...BUFFALO GAP...DYESS AFB...HAPPY VALLEY...
LAWN...MERKEL...POTOSI...TRENT...TUSCOLA...TYE AND VIEW.

THIS INCLUDES THE LOW WATER CROSSINGS AT...
TEXAS AVENUE AT ARNOLD BOULEVARD...
INTERSECTIONS ALONG SAMMONS STREET...
CURRY LANE FROM CLACK STREET TO CATCLAW DRIVE...
BUTTERNUT UNDERPASS...
INTERSECTIONS ALONG BUTTONWILLOW PARKWAY...
INTERSECTIONS ALONG VOGEL STREET...
SUNSET BETWEEN SOUTH 1ST AND 2ND...
STREETS BEWEEN JACKSON AND TREADAWAY...
NORTH 18TH STREET BETWEEN MESQUITE AND TREADAWAY...
COUNTY ROAD 123 CROSSING RAINY CREEK...
COUNTY ROAD 107 CROSSING RAINY CREEK...
CROSSINGS ALONG COUNTY ROAD 107...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN!

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40772
Quoting winter123:

"Norman" should never have been named. I don't think it was even ever organized enough to be called a TD.
Yeah, what do those idiots at the NHC know? They think that just because they have many years of formal education--and multiple advanced meteorological degrees, and decades of on-the-job experience and training, and access to highly-advanced instrumentation--that they somehow know more about tropical weather than a bunch of people who hang around an internet forum...

:\
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Quoting Grothar:


Sorry to hear that. But when our pool gets low, we just put the hose in it.
That is ok the cracks in the ground around here are closed up but it is difficult to make up 2 year deficits of 25 to 40 inches like we have, we need several of these kind of systems to get water levels up on rivers and lakes. The Fire danger is over around here which is awesome and El Nino is coming soon which should lead to a wetter and cooler than normal fall and winter hopefully.
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I think it will be a hurricane at 11.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Some places are, rain has been light to moderate in South Central Texas and Lake Travis only went up 1 inch over night, still down 50 feet but some parts of Texas received 3 to 6 inches of much needed rains. The Ponds close to my house are about 70 percent empty so I could use a flood or 2.


Sorry to hear that. But when our pool gets low, we just put the hose in it.
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Quoting winter123:

The requirements are "Persistant and organized convection over the center" - That's never happened due to very high shear.

Oops?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32502
Quoting washingtonian115:
Norman was just very super incrediblely extremely brutally horrorbly monsterous fugly.Danny has a new competitor.
I agree Danny was horrible.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4446
Quoting winter123:

"Norman" should never have been named. I don't think it was even ever organized enough to be called a TD.
Norman was just very super incrediblely extremely brutally horrorbly monsterous fugly.Danny has a new competitor.
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Quoting winter123:

The requirements are "Persistant and organized convection over the center" - That's never happened due to very high shear.

I'm pretty sure it had persistent convection or else the NHC wouldn't have issued advisories.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Well it fit all the NHC requirements for classification so it did deserve to be named.

The requirements are "Persistant and organized convection over the center" - That's never happened due to very high shear.
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...NADINE REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN...
11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 29
Location: 33.3°N 36.2°W
Moving: NNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 68
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 29 2012

...NADINE REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 36.2W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32502
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142012
1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 110.5W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 110.5W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.4N 111.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32502
Quoting Grothar:
Texas is getting a lot of rain'

Some places are, rain has been light to moderate in South Central Texas and Lake Travis only went up 1 inch over night, still down 50 feet but some parts of Texas received 3 to 6 inches of much needed rains. The Ponds close to my house are about 70 percent empty so I could use a flood or 2.
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Quoting winter123:

"Norman" should never have been named. I don't think it was even ever organized enough to be called a TD.

Well it fit all the NHC requirements for classification so it did deserve to be named.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Norman is such a monster:



It's still a TD as of the latest ATCF update... I really don't know about that though.

"Norman" should never have been named. I don't think it was even ever organized enough to be called a TD.
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In few weeks: Merry Christmas! Here's the adversory 250 about Nadine..
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I guess you won't be insulting anyone today then :P

Does that mean since I can't have cookies and milk I can't insult anyone?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't have any cookies though.

I guess you won't be insulting anyone today then :P
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7924
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nadine just won't give up.She is once again trying to reDEEM herself.

We still have at least 5 more days with Nadine, and she should be a hurricane at 11am.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nadine's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) currently stands at 18.3075 units. It should surpass 20 units tomorrow morning if it remains a 60 knot tropical storm throughout today, or a little sooner if it is upgraded to a hurricane.

Nadine's persistence has payed off for her in taking over number 1. Nadine should probably go over 20 units sooner.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I know. But as Gro said, save the insults until your cookies and milk are finished.

I don't have any cookies though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32502
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Aww come on, I was just joking. No need to get all grumpy.

I know. But as Gro said, save the insults until your cookies and milk are finished.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7924
Best Nadine has ever looked, in my opinion.
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Quoting Grothar:


It's not nice to insult somebody before you've finished your first cookies and milk of the day.:)

Some people, like me, can't have cookies and milk.

A big picture showing Nadine and anything over Africa. Probably not going to get anymore cv storms but you never know.
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Nadine's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) currently stands at 18.3075 units. It should surpass 20 units tomorrow morning if it remains a 60 knot tropical storm throughout today, or a little sooner if it is upgraded to a hurricane.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32502
29/1200 UTC 32.7N 36.0W T4.0/4.0 NADINE

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 978.2mb/ 79.6kt

IMO, 80mph sounds good at 11am.

AL, 14, 2012092912, , BEST, 0, 327N, 360W, 65, 988, HU,
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24456
That odd tendril above Jelawat's eye: cloud seeding a la "Stormfury"? It would have to be a high altitude run like from a Global Hawk. The Chinese airforce love to mess with the weather, but usually only on the thunderstorm scale.
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Nadine just won't give up.She is once again trying to reDEEM herself.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

OK smart one. Look again.

Aww come on, I was just joking. No need to get all grumpy.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32502
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40772
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm glad the image is hosted by tripod and all, but we'd actually like to see it. :P


It's not nice to insult somebody before you've finished your first cookies and milk of the day.:)
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I'd say it's very likely she'll get upgraded again at 11... convection is wrapping around a banding eye that is trying to form.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7924
.................gee all those storms last night crossing the bay into pinellas, just about to get to me and poof they fall apart, hardly enough rain to even wet the street..grrrrr
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40772
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

Someone mentioned E Cuba earlier..looks like a lot of something down there :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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