A Jelawat mystery; moisture associated with TS Norman drenching Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2012

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Powerful Typhoon Jelawat is hammering Japan's Ryukyu Islands as the typhoon steams northeastwards towards Okinawa at 12 mph. Jelawat has weakened to a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and an increase in wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots. At 7 pm local time, the winds today at Shimoji Shima Island were 66 mph, gusting to 85 mph. Jelawat has dumped 308.5 mm (12.1") rain in 12 hours at Tarama Airport. Satellite loops and radar loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 33 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are in close agreement that Jelawat will pass over or very close to Okinawa, Japan, as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm or Category 1 typhoon on Sunday. Wind shear will continue to increase over Jelawat for the remainder of its life, causing a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Japan's southern Ryukyu Islands at 11:05 pm local time on September 28, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

A Jelawat mystery
Jelawat has had a classic appearance on satellite imagery during its long stint as a Super Typhoon, with a large symmetric eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. However, at two points in its life--for several hours on September 25 (Figure 2), and again near 08 UTC September 27--both visible and infrared satellite images showed a very odd boundary extending north-northwestwards from the northeast side of the eye for about 50 miles. I've never seen any such feature in a tropical cyclone, and am a loss to explain what is going on. The typhoon was not close enough to any land areas for this to be a topographic effect, and there wasn't any obvious dry air or significant wind shear that could have caused a perturbation like this.


Figure 2. High resolution visible (left) and infrared (right) satellite imagery of Super Typhoon Jelawat from the new Suomi VIIRS instrument, taken at 0431 UTC on September 25, 2012. At the time, Jelawat was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. A very odd line appears along the north side of the eye. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, Colorado State University.
Brian Tang

Nadine a hurricane again
Non-stop Nadine has regenerated to hurricane strength again, as the long-lived storm enters its 16th day of life. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next seven days, but moisture associated with Nadine has flowed eastwards over Spain, bringing heavy rains and flooding problems. The GFS model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure on Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die. The 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will hang around an extra two days, finally getting pulled northeastward over cold waters next Friday. Nadine is already in eighth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 2002: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Nadine, 2012: 16.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 8:30 am EDT Friday, September 28, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 70 mph, and would be declared a hurricane 3 hours later. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Norman forms near Baja, Mexico; associated moisture feeding heavy rains in Texas
Tropical Storm Norman has formed this morning near the tip of Baja, Mexico, and promises to be a potent rain-maker for Mexico and the Southern U.S. Norman's moisture will feed the formation of an extratropical storm that will form in South Texas on Saturday. The storm's center will potentially move over the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday, but the storm will probably not have enough time over water to convert to a tropical system. The storm will bring heavy flooding rains to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Flooding has already been observed in West Texas this morning. Midland-Odessa picked up 3.12” of rain so far today, making it the 3rd wettest September day on record. The wettest day in city history is August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.


Figure 4. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman is expected to surge eastwards and bring heavy rains to much of Texas and the North Gulf Coast. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

New African wave may develop next week
A tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Sunday will develop into a tropical depression by next Wednesday, predicts today's 06Z run of the NOGAPS model. The wave is predicted to recurve to the north more than 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thanks, mark down Oct. 20th on your calendar, that's the 2nd peak of the season and where we would most likely get our Caribbean storm.


They hint on that at this forecast.
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Quoting LargoFl:
Texas getting some good tropical rains,wonder if they are still in a drought?..............
Compare to last year much better improvements:

Sept. 25 2012



Sept. 27 2011

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36615
Ok guys, have a good evening, i have swim practice and may or may not go to the Braves Game tonight(probably not) to see the Chipper jones ceremony.....so most likely I will be back in a few hours.
Play nice...(hope thats not trademarked by Gro)

NWS Huntsville, AL

MID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL VEER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THIS OCCURS...ALLOWING A
COUPLE OF MID-LEVEL WAVES TO ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WILL ALSO INDICATE STORMS AS A POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPE
BASED ON INSTABILITY PARAMETERS FROM THE GFS/NAM. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STILL APPEAR TO BE IN ORDER FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TRUE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD. THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED TOMORROW AS THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100-120 KNOT UPPER SPEED MAX TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS TENNESSEE.


A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFFSHORE OF TEXAS, TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE
A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME OF THE FORECAST FOR THE
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH A CLOSER TRACK TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THE LOW WAS TO TRACK THROUGH OR WEST OF
THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY
...BUT IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS TIME.
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Good afternoon. I'm surprised we got Norman today... he doesn't look that great. You can also see ex Miriam in here:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7564
Texas getting some good tropical rains,wonder if they are still in a drought?..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36615
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ALEXANDER COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
EASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
NORTH CENTRAL CATAWBA COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 225 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
KINGS CREEK...OR 5 MILES EAST OF LENOIR...AND MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
KINGS CREEK.
ELLENDALE.
TAYLORSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL CAN CAUSE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO VEHICLES.
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36615
Blob under cuba..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36615
Well, I just finished cleaning the leaves out of the gutters and by doing so have probably jinxed our chance of rain here in the East Texas Lakes Area. Do you think if I washed the windows, polished the car, and hung some snowy white sheets on the clothesline it would counteract the clean gutter rain repellent? :)
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
The eternal Nadine:



She sure is a persistent one. As long as she doesn't impact Christmas travel we should all be fine. :)
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The CSU team of Dr Klotzbach/Dr Gray forecast average activity from September 28 thru October 11.

Link
Thanks, mark down Oct. 20th on your calendar, that's the 2nd peak of the season and where we would most likely get our Caribbean storm.
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The CSU team of Dr Klotzbach/Dr Gray forecast average activity from September 28 thru October 11.

Link
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18z ATCF update reveals Norman is down to 35 knots.

EP, 14, 2012092818, , BEST, 0, 238N, 1086W, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 100, 0, 30, 1006, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORMAN, M,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That will likely keep it from becoming Tropical.


might be a stronger severe weather threat..especially inland..

stronger farther inland than the 00z
96 hours


120 hours


144 hours..something trying to get started in the atlantic
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14229
Quoting ncstorm:


I never said tropical storm..I said storm which includes thunder, rain and lightening..


I didn't say that you said the storm was a TC... I just stated that the system wasn't a TC. :)
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Quoting beell:
Thanks, Doc M.
Sure hard to explain a linear feature in a swirling storm.

Especially when considering the IR capture.



Maybe its that satellite going down too....
maybe ALIENS are attacking our satellite system in preparation for 12/21/12 ....but i doubt it..

It is a strange feature to be part of an eyewall however, whether naturally or unnaturally created.
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Quoting ncstorm:
the 12z Euro is faster and stronger with the storm moving inland

00z


12Z
That will likely keep it from becoming Tropical.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Good, maybe it will bring me a tornado....
Also realize thats a low not a Tropical storm, deepens as it moves inland before being absorbed, JUST TO MY WEST!.
We shall see how it pans out.


I never said tropical storm..I said storm which includes thunder, rain and lightening..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14229
Hurricane Nadine.
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Darn, an ooops moment for me or WU - fixed the links in post #60... I think, lol...

Quoting ScottLincoln:


I forgot to turn off HAARP when I left work last night... my bad.


Good, I'll know who to blame if I get another flooding rain over the next few days, lol... With the 3.39" I've recorded (incl .98" yesterday), September had been the driest month this otherwise very wet year since Jan... Yearly total thru yesterday: 76.23"... Not counting the near 3/4" so far today...

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Thanks, Doc M.
Sure hard to explain a linear feature in a swirling storm.

Especially when considering the IR capture.
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Quoting ncstorm:
the 12z Euro is faster and stronger with the storm moving inland

00z


12Z



Good, maybe it will bring me a tornado....
Also realize thats a likely just a low, and not a Tropical system., deepens as it moves inland before being absorbed, JUST TO MY WEST!.
We shall see how it pans out, i've had no time to really analyze US weather this week with school and swimming.
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the 12z Euro is faster and stronger with the storm moving inland

00z


12Z
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14229
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Jelawat is headed straight for Okinawa. They should see wind gusts in excess of 115 mph tonight.

The third of the season to affect Okinawa should be a record.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3947
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Conditions have to be perfect to support a Category 5 hurricane, so yeah, it's very nearly certain wind shear did not cause the mysterious line.
The perfect storm.......
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Are we sure the storm wasn't impacted by some windshear?

Conditions have to be perfect to support a Category 5 hurricane, so yeah, it's very nearly certain wind shear did not cause the mysterious line.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
One thing I do miss not living in Alaska no longer is the wintertime Aurora Borealis... Actually my ex measured this on a magnotometer....... When he was at the weather ros he would call me when the mag started getting eratic and told me to run ouside... I had my own personal alarm to when the lights would be the best.....So wonderful..
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HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND FAR WESTERN
DURANGO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
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Hi Jeff,
Yep, that's an odd linear-like streak depicted in the Jelawat mystery views. Appears a trail of perhaps cirrocumulus / overshooting tops punching through off the deep intense convective band that originated on the eastern semi-circle earlier from (and prior to) 2300Z Sep 24, rotating to N side... Keeping perspective of sun angle issues, appears that band was quite tall even then. You can see how it developed, using imagery from NRL Monterey from their mtsat2 / 1 km vis archive tables... Or choose loop option at top to pull up the list (I used JAVA loop / full sized), scroll down / select 15 frames from around 20120924.2301 thru 20120925.0532 to watch it unfold. The increasing brightness throws off the finer details in resolution clarity, but does offer evidence the band of deep convection on E side tightened up around the NE eyewall then trailed off to the NW...
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Jelawat is headed straight for Okinawa. They should see wind gusts in excess of 115 mph tonight.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
Quoting overwash12:
Thank you Dr.Masters. Since you have never seen this feature in a tropical cyclone,what do you theorize it could be?
Are we sure the storm wasn't impacted by some windshear?
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It seems to me that there is more to the feature than just the line to the north. If you look at the IR, you can follow the area of darkening around and then back down along the eastern side of eye, such that it is almost as if you have a somewhat offcenter bow wave in front of path of the eye. You can see that continuation of the bow very faintly in the visible -- nothing like the visible line to the north, but tracing the first part of the continuation of the border of black and white in the IR.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


I forgot to turn off HAARP when I left work last night... my bad.


cool story sir.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Most certainly a work of the sinister HAARP. I personally know a sientist who has years of evidense to prove HAARP is evil and sinster and they invented GW with it I sware to U!


I forgot to turn off HAARP when I left work last night... my bad.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142012
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2012

...NORMAN MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 108.6W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM WNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
Quoting Jedkins01:



Most certainly a work of the sinister HAARP. I personally know a sientist who has years of evidense to prove HAARP is evil and sinster and they invented GW with it I sware to U!
Last year I joined AARP...... Is that what you are talking about? Sucks getting older
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maybe the MYSTERY is related to HAARP ... who knows what they'll try ... just a thought
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The eternal Nadine:

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Thank you Dr.Masters. Since you have never seen this feature in a tropical cyclone,what do you theorize it could be?
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Quoting Jedkins01:


One of my favorite experiments is putting dish soap into a deep and large pot of water then boiling it. Then proceed to stir it with a very quick stroke while blowing air from a fan directly downward into the center of the induced vortex, the soap bubbles and steam/water vapor will form a similar structure to that of an eye wall.



whoa.. gotta try that one, thanks Jed!!
i am a big fan of the layman's study of vorticity and thermodynamics.. maybe when i grow up, i'll take on the math ;)
did i say grow up? i meant retire..
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Tuesday September 25, 2012 — Okawville, IL
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Norman should make landfall in a few hours.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
Dr. Masters -

Since the circulation of the feature appears to be anticyclonic, is it possible in a super-intense storm like this that a hot tower got "too hot" and sent moisture up into the venting anticyclone with a vortex that maintained the moisture in a small area and didn't let it disperse?

In that sense, it would be like wing-vortexes... the tight spin would maintain and enhance condensation even within an environment that would ordinarily be much too dry to support it.

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Quoting Gaara:


Interesting thoughts, but I am anxiously awaiting a random post from someone else about chemtrails, etc., because clearly this is the work of a shadow government!!!



Most certainly a work of the sinister HAARP. I personally know a sientist who has years of evidense to prove HAARP is evil and sinster and they invented GW with it I sware to U!
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And not just Spain ... the UK has had its worst September storm for 30 years, causing major flooding over many parts of the country - all from a spin-off depression, full of energy and moisture, from Nadine about a week ago.

Nadine might enter the record books for the "Storm which never threatened land areas but deluged Europe for over a week".

Go figure!

Brian
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Oregon Rain Shadow:


Link
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Quoting Minnemike:
hi Doc!
per the mystery, my guess would be something like a hot tower, only this one is a hot wave.. maybe there is some sort of strange attractor of fluid dynamic causing a systematic wave toppling as convective peaks encircle the eye. as opposed to witnessing single overshooting tops, the fluidity of stability ripples convective peaks as an overshooting wave..? Very intriguing!!

edit: an analogous thought.. if i get my coffee spinning around and present a perturbation/barrier at or near the middle of circulation, a wave-like ripple protruding from the center appears over the circulating motion in similar fashion as Jelawat.. perhaps counter-spinning in the eye, if not in a balanced multivortex stasis, could set about such a disturbance ripple throughout the fluidity of the system. the visible of Jelawat above shows a predominant spin and a smaller orbiting spin within the eye.. could be symptomatic of a wobble causing the mysterious effect ;)
i am a layman with a wild imagination though!!


Hey, the greatest scientific discoveries often begin that ay before they become what they are, I spent most of my childhood doing things like you described above instead of watching cartoons, in fact I still do when I have free time lol. I may have been called a weirdo back then by all the other kids but my parents always defended me and were proud of me for being that way, now I'm glad they did.

Anyways, yes I was actually thinking something similar, it probably is a thermodynamic issue, maybe there is a displacement of heat linearly due to a a rare temperature contrast in that is almost frontal in nature.


One of my favorite experiments is putting dish soap into a deep and large pot of water then boiling it. Then proceed to stir it with a very quick stroke while blowing air from a fan directly downward into the center of the induced vortex, the soap bubbles and steam/water vapor will form a similar structure to that of an eye wall.



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Here comes all the moisture...

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NOGAPS is not the only model showing a tropical depression to form in the East Atlantic...the CMC and ECMWF show it as well. The GFS keeps it as a strong tropical wave.

Here it is currently:



And look at Nadine, too, she's looking rather healthy!

She's my favouritest storm of the year... but this year, I have a lot of favourite storms, because they have such tenacity and a no-quit attitude haha.
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It appears the coolest air of the season will come to the East starting next weekend.
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Thanks Dr. M. Interesting to note this year, so far, that we have had 14 named storms in the Atlantic Basin and 14 named storms in the E-Pac (total of 28). And this does not count the numerous Typhoons in the West-Pac. An extremely active year/season for tropical storms in the Northern hemisphere.

A large number of storms and relatively unscathed season for the Caribbean and US...........We have been very lucky this year, again, on the Atlantic side in terms of no major direct impacts.

Have a Great Weekend Everyone.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.