A Jelawat mystery; moisture associated with TS Norman drenching Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2012

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Powerful Typhoon Jelawat is hammering Japan's Ryukyu Islands as the typhoon steams northeastwards towards Okinawa at 12 mph. Jelawat has weakened to a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and an increase in wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots. At 7 pm local time, the winds today at Shimoji Shima Island were 66 mph, gusting to 85 mph. Jelawat has dumped 308.5 mm (12.1") rain in 12 hours at Tarama Airport. Satellite loops and radar loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 33 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are in close agreement that Jelawat will pass over or very close to Okinawa, Japan, as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm or Category 1 typhoon on Sunday. Wind shear will continue to increase over Jelawat for the remainder of its life, causing a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Japan's southern Ryukyu Islands at 11:05 pm local time on September 28, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

A Jelawat mystery
Jelawat has had a classic appearance on satellite imagery during its long stint as a Super Typhoon, with a large symmetric eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. However, at two points in its life--for several hours on September 25 (Figure 2), and again near 08 UTC September 27--both visible and infrared satellite images showed a very odd boundary extending north-northwestwards from the northeast side of the eye for about 50 miles. I've never seen any such feature in a tropical cyclone, and am a loss to explain what is going on. The typhoon was not close enough to any land areas for this to be a topographic effect, and there wasn't any obvious dry air or significant wind shear that could have caused a perturbation like this.


Figure 2. High resolution visible (left) and infrared (right) satellite imagery of Super Typhoon Jelawat from the new Suomi VIIRS instrument, taken at 0431 UTC on September 25, 2012. At the time, Jelawat was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. A very odd line appears along the north side of the eye. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, Colorado State University.
Brian Tang

Nadine a hurricane again
Non-stop Nadine has regenerated to hurricane strength again, as the long-lived storm enters its 16th day of life. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next seven days, but moisture associated with Nadine has flowed eastwards over Spain, bringing heavy rains and flooding problems. The GFS model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure on Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die. The 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will hang around an extra two days, finally getting pulled northeastward over cold waters next Friday. Nadine is already in eighth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 2002: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Nadine, 2012: 16.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 8:30 am EDT Friday, September 28, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 70 mph, and would be declared a hurricane 3 hours later. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Norman forms near Baja, Mexico; associated moisture feeding heavy rains in Texas
Tropical Storm Norman has formed this morning near the tip of Baja, Mexico, and promises to be a potent rain-maker for Mexico and the Southern U.S. Norman's moisture will feed the formation of an extratropical storm that will form in South Texas on Saturday. The storm's center will potentially move over the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday, but the storm will probably not have enough time over water to convert to a tropical system. The storm will bring heavy flooding rains to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Flooding has already been observed in West Texas this morning. Midland-Odessa picked up 3.12” of rain so far today, making it the 3rd wettest September day on record. The wettest day in city history is August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.


Figure 4. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman is expected to surge eastwards and bring heavy rains to much of Texas and the North Gulf Coast. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

New African wave may develop next week
A tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Sunday will develop into a tropical depression by next Wednesday, predicts today's 06Z run of the NOGAPS model. The wave is predicted to recurve to the north more than 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Posted at 11:22 AM ET, 09/28/2012
Typhoon Jelawat closing in on Okinawa, Japan; Nadine becomes hurricane (again)
By Brian McNoldy




Typhoon Jelawat remains a formidable storm as it passes dangerously close to Taiwan on path towards Okinawa and then mainland Japan.

Satellite image of Jelawat on Thursday morning when it was heading toward Taiwan with 155mph sustained winds. (JMA/NOAA)


On Sunday, Jelawat became the second super typhoon to pass over the region in two weeks: Sanba was just there on September 13-14. While the western Pacific is no stranger to frequent typhoons, it is quite rare to have two consecutive super typhoons (a “super typhoon” is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph or greater).

After its meager beginnings as a tropical depression back on September 20, Jelawat reached a peak intensity of 160 mph on the 25th just east of the Philippines, but has weakened somewhat to its current intensity of 127 mph. Those wind speeds correspond to a Category 5 and high-end Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale, respectively (a typhoon and a hurricane are just different regional names for the same thing).

Fortunately for Taiwan, the storm recurved prior to reaching the island (the center passed within 200 miles of the coast), and the brunt of the rain and wind remained over the open ocean. But, now it’s heading northeast toward the Ryukyu Islands and then the main Japanese islands by the end of the weekend. Along the way, another direct hit on island of Okinawa appears likely.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects Jelawat to pass over Okinawa as formidable typhoon with maximum winds of 100 to 115 mph Saturday.

A recent radar image from Okinawa shows the storm’s outer rainbands already affecting the Ryukyu island chain, and the eyewall coming into view on the lower left corner of the image. I have a very long radar loop available that allows you to track the whole progress of the typhoon as it approaches and passes the area.

Aside from ground-based radar, the space-based equivalent is images taken of a storm at microwave wavelengths (very similar to conventional radars).

Like their ground-based counterparts, they can “see” through the clouds and capture just the precipitation structure. These instruments are currently only on polar-orbiting satellites, and rely on occasional fortuitous overpasses as the satellite zips around the globe.

Sometimes the satellite passes directly over a storm and catches great images, and other times the swath completely misses or just catches the edge of a storm. Earlier this morning, the DMSP F15 satellite had a great overpass, giving a valuable big-picture snapshot of the storm’s structure.



Jelawat is forecast to reach mainland Japan as a low-end (category 1) typhoon Saturday night into Sunday. It is expected to make landfall on Honshu south of Tokyo.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting etxwx:
Newfound comet may outshine moon in 2013

BEIJING, Sept. 27 (Xinhuanet) -- Astronomers have discovered a comet that will put on a dazzling display with a brightness that could well outshine the full moon when it crosses the night sky in November 2013, according to media reports on Thursday. The comet ISON was spotted in photographs taken by Russians Vitali Nevski and Artyom Novichonok using a 15.7-inch (0.4-meter) reflecting telescope of the International Scientific Optical Network (ISON), near Kislovodsk, Russia. It is currently very faint because it is out in the depths of space near Jupiter's orbit, will steadily brighten over the coming months.

The few days surrounding the comet%u2019s closest approach to the sun on Nov. 28, 2013, are likely to be most interesting. It will whirl rapidly around the sun in a hairpin-like curve and perhaps become a dazzlingly bright object. It could become brighter than the greatest comet of the last century, Comet Ikeya-Seki, which excited astronomers in 1965.
amazing sight for sure, hope we can see it with just our eyes and not thru a telescope etc.
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Quoting islander101010:
west carib system? plenty energy available

High Ocean Heat Content values mean nothing if there is strong wind shear or an abundance of dry air.
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135. etxwx
Newfound comet may outshine moon in 2013

BEIJING, Sept. 27 (Xinhuanet) -- Astronomers have discovered a comet that will put on a dazzling display with a brightness that could well outshine the full moon when it crosses the night sky in November 2013, according to media reports on Thursday. The comet ISON was spotted in photographs taken by Russians Vitali Nevski and Artyom Novichonok using a 15.7-inch (0.4-meter) reflecting telescope of the International Scientific Optical Network (ISON), near Kislovodsk, Russia. It is currently very faint because it is out in the depths of space near Jupiter's orbit, will steadily brighten over the coming months.

The few days surrounding the comet’s closest approach to the sun on Nov. 28, 2013, are likely to be most interesting. It will whirl rapidly around the sun in a hairpin-like curve and perhaps become a dazzlingly bright object. It could become brighter than the greatest comet of the last century, Comet Ikeya-Seki, which excited astronomers in 1965.
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240hrs ECMWF showing lowering of pressures in the SW Caribbean. Watch to see if it trends upward, if at all.
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With all the rain in Texas now, does that mean the death ridge is gone?
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so is miriam going to follow normans wake?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
From HPC about possible low forming in Western Caribbean.

MID/UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DIG
ACROSS YUCATAN/WESTERN CUBA INTO CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE
CYCLE. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND IS DEVELOPING A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MODELS SHOW BROAD YET WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATER IN THE CYCLE.

Link


interesting
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Quoting barbamz:
Amount of fatalities in southern Spain due to torrential rainfall has unfortunately risen to six, among which is one child.
Link (spanish)

I hope Plaza is safe.


I'm sorry to hear that barb. I too hope Plaza is safe
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Are we sure the storm wasn't impacted by some windshear?
Maybe,but why the straight line?
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west carib system? plenty energy available
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4892
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CATAWBA COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
DAVIE COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
IREDELL COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
NORTHWESTERN ROWAN COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 320 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HARMONY TO 6 MILES EAST OF
STONY POINT TO LOOKOUT SHOALS LAKE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
STATESVILLE.
MOCKSVILLE.
TROUTMAN.
COOLEEMEE.
CLEVELAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OVER SMALL
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
From HPC about possible low forming in Western Caribbean.

MID/UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DIG
ACROSS YUCATAN/WESTERN CUBA INTO CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE
CYCLE. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND IS DEVELOPING A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MODELS SHOW BROAD YET WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATER IN THE CYCLE.

Link
thanks..something to watch for sure
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
From HPC about possible low forming in Western Caribbean.

MID/UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DIG
ACROSS YUCATAN/WESTERN CUBA INTO CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE
CYCLE. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND IS DEVELOPING A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MODELS SHOW BROAD YET WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATER IN THE CYCLE.

Link
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Euro 240 hrs. Atlantic and SW Caribbean system:

Oscar and Patty?
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There WAS water on Mars?.................NASA announced Thursday that the Curiosity rover has found evidence of an ancient stream that flowed "vigorously" on Mars. NASA says the stream bed evidence suggests the water flowed in "large volume," and that it was fast-moving and deep.

According to NASA mission scientists, evidence of existence of an ancient stream bed came from analysis of size and shapes of pebbles and gravel near Gale Crater. Scientists consider the find important because it establishes what they consider one of the key prerequisites for life — water.


Read more: http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/333780#ixzz2 7nLwj4S9
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Euro 240 hrs. Atlantic and SW Caribbean system:

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Looks like the east coast of Florida is getting the rains today...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
Amount of fatalities in southern Spain due to torrential rainfall has unfortunately risen to six, among which is one child.
Link (spanish)

I hope Plaza is safe.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
326 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 322 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
US 27
RURAL CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY
RURAL SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH AND
OR LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION, SEEK SHELTER IN
AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.
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FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

PRC027-081-115-131-282100-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-120928T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LARES PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-CAMUY PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-
324 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM AST FOR
QUEBRADILLAS...CAMUY...SAN SEBASTIAN AND LARES MUNICIPALITIES...

AT 316 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE GUAJATACA RIVER BASIN IN THE WARNED
AREA. AT 3:20 PM AST THE RIVER GAGE ON THE GUAJATACA AT LARES WAS
REGISTERING 16.24 FEET WHICH RAISES THE RIVER OUT OF ITS BANKS IN
LARES AND FLOODS HOMES IN BARRIO SEBORUQUILLO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND BEFORE YOUR ESCAPE ROUTE IS CUT OFF. THIS HAS
BEEN A VERY LARGE STORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND THE RIVER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 1837 6699 1839 6688 1830 6684 1827 6692

$$

SNELL

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
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Quoting beell:


Hiya, Doc ND.

I'm waiting on additional input (everybody else's input) before venturing a guess. No guts, no glory, eh?

Such a sharp demarcation on IR temps. Could be a glitch but corresponds well with the vis. Something to mull over after work and during our scheduled rain event this weekend.

I'm probably happier to see it (the rain) than you!

maybe its a deformation zone of warmer drier air that has not yet reached the surface
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Quoting Slamguitar:


Should be an interesting view once the sun rises. Any idea of the direction it's facing?
it will be a crazy scene in a few. but with sanba it came overnight so this will be better
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Quoting Slamguitar:


Should be an interesting view once the sun rises. Any idea of the direction it's facing?
its a cam facing directly into a beach. i believe its facing north west or almost due north youll see in about two hours wen sunrise comes
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110. beell
Quoting DocNDswamp:


Howdy Beell,
True 'nough... Line of overshooting tops punching thru might well be lifted above the upper vortex to create such temporarily a few hours... a certain GFS analysis I just looked at for 0Z Sep 25th of the upper environment around Jelawat indicated ESE winds at 70 mb (near 60K ft) directly overhead - and above the distinct upper vortex - might help explain what I was pointing out in post #60...

Dunno, just best guessing like everyone else, lol...
;)


Hiya, Doc ND.

I'm waiting on additional input (everybody else's input) before venturing a guess. No guts, no glory, eh?

Such a sharp demarcation on IR temps. Could be a glitch but corresponds well with the vis. Something to mull over after work and during our scheduled rain event this weekend.

I'm probably happier to see it (the rain) than you!

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Thanks Dr. Masters!
I see Nadine is a hurricane, no surprise, and TS Norman has formed.

I just got back from school, hello everyone.
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108. etxwx
Haiti instigates ban to try get a handle on plastic and foam waste.
Plastic rivers flow through Haiti
9.27.12 by Jacqueline Charles and Curtis Morgan | The Miami Herald

Excert: PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti — Plastic and foam food containers. They're everywhere in this enterprising Caribbean nation, clogging canals, cluttering streets and choking ocean wildlife.

Now those pesky black plastic bags made of polyethylene and polystyrene foam cups, plates, trays and other containers that have become as ubiquitous as the vendors who peddle them in street markets are on their way out. Haiti's government has announced a ban on importing, manufacturing and marketing them as of Oct. 1.

"This is a logical decision and makes sense," Prime Minister Laurent Lamothe said. "Importing, manufacturing bio-degradable items will benefit Haiti's short, mid- and long-term environmental interest."

In Haiti the black plastic bags are the primary mode for transporting items among Haiti's poor who shuffle back and forth to open air street markets on an almost daily basis. They also are a key, but dangerous, ingredient in curbside cooking, helping food cook faster. The bags and containers are then dumped haphazardly into canals, turning them into rivers of debris several feet deep.

Story continues here.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
A tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Sunday will develop into a tropical depression by next Wednesday, predicts today's 06Z run of the NOGAPS model. The wave is predicted to recurve to the north more than 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

2012 really disappointing... WHERE IS THE RAIN?


I feel your pain :)
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Quoting bigwes6844:
live webcam from okinawa japan. this cam is near the pacific ocean and refreshes every minute.


Should be an interesting view once the sun rises. Any idea of the direction it's facing?
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Quoting beell:
Thanks, Doc M.
Sure hard to explain a linear feature in a swirling storm.

Especially when considering the IR capture.


Howdy Beell,
True 'nough... Line of overshooting tops punching thru might well be lifted above the upper vortex to create such temporarily a few hours... a certain GFS analysis I just looked at for 0Z Sep 25th of the upper environment around Jelawat indicated ESE winds at 70 mb (near 60K ft) directly overhead - and above the distinct upper vortex - might help explain what I was pointing out in post #60...

Dunno, just best guessing like everyone else, lol...
;)
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon. I'm surprised we got Norman today... he doesn't look that great. You can also see ex Miriam in here:


It still meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone...although I do admit it looked better earlier, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32530
live webcam from okinawa japan. this cam is near the pacific ocean and refreshes every minute.
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18z ATCF update says no change with Nadine.

AL, 14, 2012092818, , BEST, 0, 298N, 348W, 65, 988, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 180, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32530
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Quoting calkevin77:


She sure is a persistent one. As long as she doesn't impact Christmas travel we should all be fine. :)
The week of Thanksgiving is the busiest of the year..
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okinawa is about to get socked really hard! I feel for those people. Back to back typhoons
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Okinawa is certainly a hurricane prone location, but getting two major hurricanes going directly over the island in the span of a few weeks is still pretty amazing.



Check out that big outer band N and E of the island.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7948
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
207 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

CTZ007-010>012-281900-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN NEW
LONDON-
207 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MIDDLESEX...SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAVEN
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW LONDON COUNTIES...

AT 202 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF BRANFORD...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
NEAR GUILFORD BY 240 PM.
NEAR CLINTON BY 255 PM.
NEAR KILLINGWORTH BY 300 PM.

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1 1/2 INCHES AN
HOUR...IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
Yea, I agree with the idea that there might be trouble in the Caribbean in October. Check out this insane TCHP in the Caribbean. With the amount of fronts coming down and stalling out, it's not going to take much for development off the tail end of one in the SW Caribbean. October, even in El Nino years, can crank out serious development down there. 2009 for example had Hurricane Ida make a run for major hurricane status in November, in an El Nino year.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

PRC027-065-071-081-115-131-141-281930-
HATILLO PR-LARES PR-UTUADO PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-ISABELA PR-CAMUY PR-
QUEBRADILLAS PR-
229 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

AT 220 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LARES...MOVING NORTHWEST AT
10 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS UP TO
40 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

$$

CASTRO
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14571
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
218 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
EASTERN NEW HAVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

* AT 211 PM EDT...AN AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW HAVEN COUNTY AND INTO MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN
CONNECTICUT. FLASH FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED ACROSS
ROADWAYS FROM WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...WITH
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL
AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
Quoting Thing342:
Norm will probably make landfall within 9 hours, and will be gone in 18, methinks.


Wow is that the Norm?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE NADINE IS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 34.7W AT 28/1500 UTC.
THIS POSITION IS LOCATED ABOUT 635 NM SW OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.
NADINE IS MOVING NW NEAR 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH
GUST TO 80 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-32N
BETWEEN 34W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-32N
BETWEEN 32W-34W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N32W TO 8N36W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. IT
LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 33W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 19N81W TO 12N81W
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE WAVE ALSO CONTINUES TO LIE UNDERNEATH THE DIFFLUENT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS HELPING ENHANCE CONVECTION NEAR
IT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
19N-21N BETWEEN 79W-82W. ACTIVITY IS PRESENT FARTHER E...BUT IS
LIKELY MORE INFLUENCE BY THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SENEGAL AT 13N16W CONTINUING SE ALONG 9N25W 7N36W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 7N36W ALONG 7N49W 7N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
15W-26W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 27W-29W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NORTH OF THE ITCZ ALONG 17N46W TO
10N48W. THE TROUGH IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE WEST. THIS COMBINATION IS HELPING PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-18N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM
A HIGH CENTER OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A SMALL
AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS HELPING PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL..EASTERN...AND SOUTHERN GULF
INCLUDING FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
PARALLEL TO THE TEXAS COAST SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS UP TO
150 NM OFFSHORE AND WELL AS OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
ALOFT...MAINLY NORTHERLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING UP MEXICO INTO TEXAS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. EXPECT SURFACE
RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN WITH CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW
GULF ON SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG
81W/82W. IT IS PRODUCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE AXIS JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO THE E FROM COLOMBIA TO EASTERN
CUBA BETWEEN 74W-79W...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING WESTERN CUBA TO NICARAGUA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
LIKELY THE MAIN CAUSE OF ALL THE CONVECTION WITH A SMALLER
INFLUENCE BY THE WAVE. SOME OF ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE WAVE NEAR
COLOMBIA AND ACROSS PANAMA IS ALSO INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA
TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AT THIS TIME ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THAT HALF OF THE BASIN. EXPECT
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS SOMEWHAT STATIONARY. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE EXTREME SW NORTH ATLC
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N79W TO 25N79W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS EXPERIENCING FAIR CONDITIONS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE AREA ALONG 66W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 27N49W ENHANCING CONVECTION
NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF THE ITCZ REGION. A SECOND AND
WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N59W TO 20N61W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE AXIS FROM 19N-24N
BETWEEN 54W-57W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
NEAR HURRICANE NADINE NEAR THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

WALTON
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Compare to last year much better improvements:

Sept. 25 2012



Sept. 27 2011

thanks,glad they are getting the rains
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41000
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon. I'm surprised we got Norman today... he doesn't look that great. You can also see ex Miriam in here:

Norm will probably make landfall within 9 hours, and will be gone in 18, methinks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Current Jelawat update from Dave Ornauer's blog:
Update 21
2:30 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 29, Japan time: Any time now, Okinawa should start feeling the full fury of Typhoon Jelawat as it makes that dogleg right toward the island, with the closest point of approach 9 miles north of Kadena Air Base around 2 p.m. Saturday.

While Jelawat is gradually losing strength, the island is still bracing for sustained 115-mph winds and 138-mph gusts around mid-day. Then, Jelawat will pick up forward speed and high-tail it out of the area in relatively short order.

Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1; expect upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) very soon, followed by TCCOR 1-E (emergency) sometime after sunrise. Once the latter occurs, stay indoors until TCCOR Storm Watch is declared.

Latest forecast wind timeline for Okinawa courtesy of Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Sustained 40-mph winds and greater, 2 a.m. Saturday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds and greater, 5 a.m. Saturday.
-- Maximum sustained 115-mph winds, 138-mph gusts, 11 a.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 7 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 10 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, midnight Saturday.

Kanto Plain: You’re next. Yokosuka Naval Base and Naval Air Facility Atsugi are in TCCOR 3 and Yokota Air Base in TCCOR 4; expect that to accelerate as Jelawat accelerates toward landfall over Hamamatsu around 9 p.m. Sunday. Yokosuka schools are already closed on Monday; Fleet Activities Yokosuka made that announcement Friday. Jelawat should pass 10 miles northwest of Yokota around 1 a.m. Monday, still packing sustained 75 mph winds and 92-mph gusts as it roars past.

Local Yokosuka forecast calls for south-southwesterly winds to start picking up Monday, 35- to 45-mph sustained and 55-mph gusts by evening, 45- to 55-mph sustained and 65-mph gusts overnight into Monday, 35- to 45-mph sustained and 55-mph gusts by early morning and decreasing from there. Won’t be quite as bad inland, but still pretty nasty a way to start the week.
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1516
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thanks, mark down Oct. 20th on your calendar, that's the 2nd peak of the season and where we would most likely get our Caribbean storm.


They hint on that at this forecast.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14571

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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