A Jelawat mystery; moisture associated with TS Norman drenching Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2012

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Powerful Typhoon Jelawat is hammering Japan's Ryukyu Islands as the typhoon steams northeastwards towards Okinawa at 12 mph. Jelawat has weakened to a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and an increase in wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots. At 7 pm local time, the winds today at Shimoji Shima Island were 66 mph, gusting to 85 mph. Jelawat has dumped 308.5 mm (12.1") rain in 12 hours at Tarama Airport. Satellite loops and radar loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 33 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are in close agreement that Jelawat will pass over or very close to Okinawa, Japan, as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm or Category 1 typhoon on Sunday. Wind shear will continue to increase over Jelawat for the remainder of its life, causing a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Japan's southern Ryukyu Islands at 11:05 pm local time on September 28, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

A Jelawat mystery
Jelawat has had a classic appearance on satellite imagery during its long stint as a Super Typhoon, with a large symmetric eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. However, at two points in its life--for several hours on September 25 (Figure 2), and again near 08 UTC September 27--both visible and infrared satellite images showed a very odd boundary extending north-northwestwards from the northeast side of the eye for about 50 miles. I've never seen any such feature in a tropical cyclone, and am a loss to explain what is going on. The typhoon was not close enough to any land areas for this to be a topographic effect, and there wasn't any obvious dry air or significant wind shear that could have caused a perturbation like this.


Figure 2. High resolution visible (left) and infrared (right) satellite imagery of Super Typhoon Jelawat from the new Suomi VIIRS instrument, taken at 0431 UTC on September 25, 2012. At the time, Jelawat was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. A very odd line appears along the north side of the eye. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, Colorado State University.
Brian Tang

Nadine a hurricane again
Non-stop Nadine has regenerated to hurricane strength again, as the long-lived storm enters its 16th day of life. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next seven days, but moisture associated with Nadine has flowed eastwards over Spain, bringing heavy rains and flooding problems. The GFS model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure on Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die. The 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will hang around an extra two days, finally getting pulled northeastward over cold waters next Friday. Nadine is already in eighth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 2002: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Nadine, 2012: 16.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 8:30 am EDT Friday, September 28, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 70 mph, and would be declared a hurricane 3 hours later. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Norman forms near Baja, Mexico; associated moisture feeding heavy rains in Texas
Tropical Storm Norman has formed this morning near the tip of Baja, Mexico, and promises to be a potent rain-maker for Mexico and the Southern U.S. Norman's moisture will feed the formation of an extratropical storm that will form in South Texas on Saturday. The storm's center will potentially move over the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday, but the storm will probably not have enough time over water to convert to a tropical system. The storm will bring heavy flooding rains to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Flooding has already been observed in West Texas this morning. Midland-Odessa picked up 3.12” of rain so far today, making it the 3rd wettest September day on record. The wettest day in city history is August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.


Figure 4. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman is expected to surge eastwards and bring heavy rains to much of Texas and the North Gulf Coast. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

New African wave may develop next week
A tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Sunday will develop into a tropical depression by next Wednesday, predicts today's 06Z run of the NOGAPS model. The wave is predicted to recurve to the north more than 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
As many of the Eastern Caribbean islands are enduring,September has been below normal on rainfall in Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands.Also September 2012 ranks as the first warmest on record.

.CLIMATE...SEP 2012 AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT WILL END AS THE WARMEST
SEP ON RECORD. SEP 2012 HAS NOW MOVED SOLELY INTO FIRST PLACE AND
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW WILL ONLY HELP
IN MOVING FURTHER APART FROM SEP 1995. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...SEP
2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE SECOND DRIEST SEP ON RECORD WITH A
TOTAL OF 1.66 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR. THE THIRD DRIEST SEP ON
RECORD IS 1987 WITH 1.73 INCHES AND FOURTH IS 2006 WITH 1.78
INCHES. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO PICKUP ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN BEFORE THE MONTH ENDS WHICH COULD ALTER THE CURRENT RANKS BUT
IT CAN BE SAID WITH DEFINITE CERTAINTY THAT SEP WILL END IN THE
TOP FIVE DRIEST SEPTEMBERS ON RECORD.

AT THE CYRIL E. KING ARPT IN ST. THOMAS...SEP 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS
AS THE DRIEST SEP ON RECORD WITH 0.92 INCHES OF RAIN. THE SECOND
DRIEST SEP ON RECORD WAS IN 1986 WITH 1.08 INCHES AND THIRD WAS 1987
WITH 1.42 INCHES. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO PICKUP ANOTHER QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHICH COULD ALTER THE CURRENT RANKS BUT IT CAN BE
SAID WITH DEFINITE CERTAINTY THAT SEP WILL END IN THE TOP THREE
DRIEST SEPTEMBERS ON RECORD.


What the hell is wrong with this year....!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6471
Good afternoon all...

Did my usual daily & detailed Atlantic blog update. I explain how Nadine could actually get stronger than the NHC shows...and also explain how the weather system over Texas and the southern US has come together. If something doesn't make sense in what I say...feel free to leave questions and or comments...
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586. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Pig Pooohey. It's amazing what a blonde, a motorcycle and an idiot can do to a football program.

Still raining in Cedar Park, TX.
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Quoting Patrap:
Nadine? Honey is dat u ?
Maybe she's out with Norman
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Heavy rains around Midland, San Angelo and Abilene areas just to start with, father in law lives close to Abilene over 8 inches since yesterday and he said 6 to 10 inches in wide spread areas out there. That is awesome rains for that part of Texas, not that much around where I live but I am so happy some parts of Texas got these much needed rains.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


On the Tropical Weather front,the 12z GFS doesn't develop anything thru the 15th.You still think that 1-2 more named storms will form during the rest of the season?

We still got a chance at that, a storm can form even without models showing it.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Another trough comes rolling in at 372hrs, if the GFS is correct temps will be getting cooler for sure.


On the Tropical Weather front,the 12z GFS doesn't develop anything thru the 15th.You still think that 1-2 more named storms will form during the rest of the season?
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Quoting Chicklit:


Grothar I think Patrap means bad news about the heavy moisture headed for areas still flooded from Isaac,Terrebonne and Plaquemines parishes in particular.

LinkGOM WV Loop


OH.
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That wave that emerged from Africa is getting some spin going:

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It's amazing how dry the west Caribbean still is.
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Another trough comes rolling in at 372hrs, if the GFS is correct temps will be getting cooler for sure.
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Grothar I think Patrap means bad news about the heavy moisture headed for areas still flooded from Isaac,Terrebonne and Plaquemines parishes in particular.

LinkGOM WV Loop
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Based on the video and weather station reports, Jelawat was a good bit worse than Sanba for Okinawa, even though Sanba was a more intense typhoon. Winds in Naha peaked at 79 gusting to 107 mph during Jelawat. The island of Okinawa was in the right front quadrant of the storm this time.

The peak wind gust in that area was 137 mph according to The Weather Channel. Cannot remember the name of the island.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33079
Long-lived Hurricane Nadine.

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Quoting etxwx:


You are just all heart, Grothar. All heart... ;-)



Aw shucks.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
12z GFS 312 hours:



324:





Ew, I live under the centre of that.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 617
12z GFS 312 hours:



324:



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Based on the video and weather station reports, Jelawat was a good bit worse than Sanba for Okinawa, even though Sanba was a more intense typhoon. Winds in Naha peaked at 79 gusting to 107 mph during Jelawat. The island of Okinawa was in the right front quadrant of the storm this time.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 68
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 29 2012
br>...NADINE REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 36.2W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


Number 68!?!
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There are some crazy photo's and video's on the Kadena Air Base facebook page.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15985
566. etxwx
Quoting Grothar:


And a right auricle at that. My motto is, "It is better to be a right auricle than a left ventricle, and better to always be a superior vena cava than an inferior vena cava"


You are just all heart, Grothar. All heart... ;-)

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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


The answer to this mystery is really quite simple. All of the national weather services run their models on Grothar's computer. .... Grothar will sneak a peek, from time to time, because it slows down the animation of his solitaire game and he is trying to find out why his ace is so slow moving to the top rows. .... Mystery solved? ... Or did I create another mystery?


Or is it because Grothar is the God of weather and hence all knowing?
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As many of the Eastern Caribbean islands are enduring,September has been below normal on rainfall in Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands.Also September 2012 ranks as the first warmest on record.

.CLIMATE...SEP 2012 AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT WILL END AS THE WARMEST
SEP ON RECORD. SEP 2012 HAS NOW MOVED SOLELY INTO FIRST PLACE AND
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW WILL ONLY HELP
IN MOVING FURTHER APART FROM SEP 1995. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...SEP
2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE SECOND DRIEST SEP ON RECORD WITH A
TOTAL OF 1.66 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR. THE THIRD DRIEST SEP ON
RECORD IS 1987 WITH 1.73 INCHES AND FOURTH IS 2006 WITH 1.78
INCHES. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO PICKUP ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN BEFORE THE MONTH ENDS WHICH COULD ALTER THE CURRENT RANKS BUT
IT CAN BE SAID WITH DEFINITE CERTAINTY THAT SEP WILL END IN THE
TOP FIVE DRIEST SEPTEMBERS ON RECORD.

AT THE CYRIL E. KING ARPT IN ST. THOMAS...SEP 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS
AS THE DRIEST SEP ON RECORD WITH 0.92 INCHES OF RAIN. THE SECOND
DRIEST SEP ON RECORD WAS IN 1986 WITH 1.08 INCHES AND THIRD WAS 1987
WITH 1.42 INCHES. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO PICKUP ANOTHER QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHICH COULD ALTER THE CURRENT RANKS BUT IT CAN BE
SAID WITH DEFINITE CERTAINTY THAT SEP WILL END IN THE TOP THREE
DRIEST SEPTEMBERS ON RECORD.
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Quoting Grothar:


Snow in Alaska??? What next.
OH,,my, so soon? In Alaska? Incredible.....!!
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Quoting Hangten:


OK. this happens too many times. You always know these things before they publish them. You post an image and say nothing and in a few hours the nhc writes something on it. You have been saying Nadine would go west and back in circles when all models had it going toward the Europe. You give the EURO forecast 3 hours before we get it. You know intensitys of such and you have posted of such waves from Africa days before they are of interest. I am of such opinion perhaps this is not of the lucky guess you mention. I have written of this before and i understand it you do wish to make us aware.


The answer to this mystery is really quite simple. All of the national weather services run their models on Grothar's computer. .... Grothar will sneak a peek, from time to time, because it slows down the animation of his solitaire game and he is trying to find out why his ace is so slow moving to the top rows. .... Mystery solved? ... Or did I create another mystery?
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Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15985
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15985
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15985
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Quoting Patrap:
Looking Sw I can see the yellow tinge with Red way up High.

That CANT be good.



If I understood what you meant, I might agree with you.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
That looks nice. But the CPC says the snow won't be back, at least not for a week or two. Even as a bullet of cold pushes down into the Lower 48, Alaska will be basking, relatively speaking:

Alaska



yep
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Quoting txjac:
I'm so bummed out ...how is all of this rain missing me???? We got some drizzle ...would love to see some serious rain just because I like it.



I'd love some serious rain too! I think we will see more develop west an head this way this afternoon... Well at least that's what the forecast discussion is saying. We should see the heaviest rain this evening into tonight. Only time will tell if it pans out. Here's to hoping it will!
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 635

Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Pretty intense, had to have been 50 mph at least. Were the effects of Jelawat worse than those of Sanba a couple weeks ago?


Wont know till be get some published data seems.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130367
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550. Grothar


Looking Sw I can see the yellow tinge with Red way up High.

That CANT be good.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130367
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Globogenesis in action.

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Quoting Patrap:
From Kadena AFB on Okinawa

Published on Sep 28, 2012 by Noah Burkham

Strong winds and rain. The eye is about 3 hours away from making landfall.



Pretty intense, had to have been 50 mph at least. Were the effects of Jelawat worse than those of Sanba a couple weeks ago?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i would like too report that the 1st snow of the season is now falling in Anchorage, AK






Beautiful! If it weren't for my love of tropical plants/gardening and summer storms and cyclones, I would move north in a heartbeat. Florida is hot.

Might Nadine make another anticyclonic loop in the Atlantic over the next week?
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What NOT to do in a Hurricane/Typhoon, please..wear a Helmet.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130367
Quoting Tazmanian:
i would like too report that the 1st snow of the season is now falling in Anchorage, AK
That looks nice. But the CPC says the snow won't be back, at least not for a week or two. Even as a bullet of cold pushes down into the Lower 48, Alaska will be basking, relatively speaking:

Alaska
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More videos here from Jelawat
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130367
From Kadena AFB on Okinawa

Published on Sep 28, 2012 by Noah Burkham

Strong winds and rain. The eye is about 3 hours away from making landfall.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130367
Quoting Hangten:


OK. this happens too many times. You always know these things before they publish them. You post an image and say nothing and in a few hours the nhc writes something on it. You have been saying Nadine would go west and back in circles when all models had it going toward the Europe. You give the EURO forecast 3 hours before we get it. You know intensitys of such and you have posted of such waves from Africa days before they are of interest. I am of such opinion perhaps this is not of the lucky guess you mention. I have written of this before and i understand it you do wish to make us aware.


Heldig gæt
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Snow in MI, I hope that's next. What will really be crazy is Nadine becoming a major hurricane:)


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Typhoon Jelawat has all but cleared Okinawa

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130367
Quoting Grothar:


And a right auricle at that. My motto is, "It is better to be a right auricle than a left ventricle, and better to always be a superior vena cava than an inferior vena cava"


I knew a Mother Superior with a Splintered yardstick.

: (
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130367
Quoting Patrap:


He is a Auricle, not unlike the Chinese I-Ching, but alas he is much older.


Gro is aN ear? I never knew.
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Quoting Grothar:


Snow in Alaska??? What next.

Snow in MI, I hope that's next. What will really be crazy is Nadine becoming a major hurricane:)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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