A Jelawat mystery; moisture associated with TS Norman drenching Texas
Powerful Typhoon Jelawat is hammering Japan's Ryukyu Islands as the typhoon steams northeastwards towards Okinawa at 12 mph. Jelawat has weakened to a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and an increase in wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots. At 7 pm local time, the winds today at Shimoji Shima Island were 66 mph, gusting to 85 mph. Jelawat has dumped 308.5 mm (12.1") rain in 12 hours at Tarama Airport. Satellite loops and radar loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 33 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.
The models are in close agreement that Jelawat will pass over or very close to Okinawa, Japan, as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm or Category 1 typhoon on Sunday. Wind shear will continue to increase over Jelawat for the remainder of its life, causing a steady weakening of the storm.
Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Japan's southern Ryukyu Islands at 11:05 pm local time on September 28, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.
A Jelawat mystery
Jelawat has had a classic appearance on satellite imagery during its long stint as a Super Typhoon, with a large symmetric eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. However, at two points in its life--for several hours on September 25 (Figure 2), and again near 08 UTC September 27--both visible and infrared satellite images showed a very odd boundary extending north-northwestwards from the northeast side of the eye for about 50 miles. I've never seen any such feature in a tropical cyclone, and am a loss to explain what is going on. The typhoon was not close enough to any land areas for this to be a topographic effect, and there wasn't any obvious dry air or significant wind shear that could have caused a perturbation like this.
Figure 2. High resolution visible (left) and infrared (right) satellite imagery of Super Typhoon Jelawat from the new Suomi VIIRS instrument, taken at 0431 UTC on September 25, 2012. At the time, Jelawat was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. A very odd line appears along the north side of the eye. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, Colorado State University.
Brian Tang
Nadine a hurricane again
Non-stop Nadine has regenerated to hurricane strength again, as the long-lived storm enters its 16th day of life. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next seven days, but moisture associated with Nadine has flowed eastwards over Spain, bringing heavy rains and flooding problems. The GFS model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure on Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die. The 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will hang around an extra two days, finally getting pulled northeastward over cold waters next Friday. Nadine is already in eighth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:
1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 2002: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Nadine, 2012: 16.0 named storm days
The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.
Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 8:30 am EDT Friday, September 28, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 70 mph, and would be declared a hurricane 3 hours later. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Tropical Storm Norman forms near Baja, Mexico; associated moisture feeding heavy rains in Texas
Tropical Storm Norman has formed this morning near the tip of Baja, Mexico, and promises to be a potent rain-maker for Mexico and the Southern U.S. Norman's moisture will feed the formation of an extratropical storm that will form in South Texas on Saturday. The storm's center will potentially move over the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday, but the storm will probably not have enough time over water to convert to a tropical system. The storm will bring heavy flooding rains to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Flooding has already been observed in West Texas this morning. Midland-Odessa picked up 3.12” of rain so far today, making it the 3rd wettest September day on record. The wettest day in city history is August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.
Figure 4. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman is expected to surge eastwards and bring heavy rains to much of Texas and the North Gulf Coast. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.
New African wave may develop next week
A tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Sunday will develop into a tropical depression by next Wednesday, predicts today's 06Z run of the NOGAPS model. The wave is predicted to recurve to the north more than 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.
Is that world wide or just Atlantic record?
1971 Ginger had 31 days from naming till dissipation or 118 Advisories.
Meanwhile in Spain. Look at this terrifying flood! (Video)
http://www.20minutos.es/noticia/1601210/0/cortes- carretera/lluvias/malaga/
3:53 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
The world record is John in the Epac, 30 days:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E6.html
Jeff Masters
2012 really disappointing... WHERE IS THE RAIN?
Ginger was tracked for 31 days. She was a named storm for 28 days, from September 6 till October 3.
Proof here
Typhoon Jelawat closing in on Okinawa, Japan; Nadine becomes hurricane (again)
By Brian McNoldy
Typhoon Jelawat remains a formidable storm as it passes dangerously close to Taiwan on path towards Okinawa and then mainland Japan.
Satellite image of Jelawat on Thursday morning when it was heading toward Taiwan with 155mph sustained winds. (JMA/NOAA)
On Sunday, Jelawat became the second super typhoon to pass over the region in two weeks: Sanba was just there on September 13-14. While the western Pacific is no stranger to frequent typhoons, it is quite rare to have two consecutive super typhoons (a “super typhoon” is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph or greater).
After its meager beginnings as a tropical depression back on September 20, Jelawat reached a peak intensity of 160 mph on the 25th just east of the Philippines, but has weakened somewhat to its current intensity of 127 mph. Those wind speeds correspond to a Category 5 and high-end Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale, respectively (a typhoon and a hurricane are just different regional names for the same thing).
Fortunately for Taiwan, the storm recurved prior to reaching the island (the center passed within 200 miles of the coast), and the brunt of the rain and wind remained over the open ocean. But, now it’s heading northeast toward the Ryukyu Islands and then the main Japanese islands by the end of the weekend. Along the way, another direct hit on island of Okinawa appears likely.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects Jelawat to pass over Okinawa as formidable typhoon with maximum winds of 100 to 115 mph Saturday.
A recent radar image from Okinawa shows the storm’s outer rainbands already affecting the Ryukyu island chain, and the eyewall coming into view on the lower left corner of the image. I have a very long radar loop available that allows you to track the whole progress of the typhoon as it approaches and passes the area.
Aside from ground-based radar, the space-based equivalent is images taken of a storm at microwave wavelengths (very similar to conventional radars).
Like their ground-based counterparts, they can “see” through the clouds and capture just the precipitation structure. These instruments are currently only on polar-orbiting satellites, and rely on occasional fortuitous overpasses as the satellite zips around the globe.
Sometimes the satellite passes directly over a storm and catches great images, and other times the swath completely misses or just catches the edge of a storm. Earlier this morning, the DMSP F15 satellite had a great overpass, giving a valuable big-picture snapshot of the storm’s structure.
Jelawat is forecast to reach mainland Japan as a low-end (category 1) typhoon Saturday night into Sunday. It is expected to make landfall on Honshu south of Tokyo.
per the mystery, my guess would be something like a hot tower, only this one is a hot wave.. maybe there is some sort of strange attractor of fluid dynamic causing a systematic wave toppling as convective peaks encircle the eye. as opposed to witnessing single overshooting tops, the fluidity of stability ripples convective peaks as an overshooting wave..? Very intriguing!!
edit: an analogous thought.. if i get my coffee spinning around and present a perturbation/barrier at or near the middle of circulation, a wave-like ripple protruding from the center appears over the circulating motion in similar fashion as Jelawat.. perhaps counter-spinning in the eye, if not in a balanced multivortex stasis, could set about such a disturbance ripple throughout the fluidity of the system. the visible of Jelawat above shows a predominant spin and a smaller orbiting spin within the eye.. could be symptomatic of a wobble causing the mysterious effect ;)
i am a layman with a wild imagination though!!
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1149 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
* UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...
* AT 1144 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
COLD SPRING HARBOR...OR NEAR HUNTINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HUNTINGTON STATION...CENTERPORT...NORTHPORT...COMMACK...
SMITHTOWN...STONY BROOK...PORT JEFFERSON AND MOUNT SINAI
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROO
FLASH FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1022 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
ECTOR COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...
MIDLAND COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 215 PM CDT
* AT 1015 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A THUNDERSTORM NEAR MISSION DORADO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SIGNIFICANT
ROAD FLOODING WAS REPORTED WITH EARLIER HEAVY RAIN WITH NUMEROUS
ROADS IMPASSABLE AND HIGH WATER RESCUES. REDEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
* THE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...
MISSION DORADO...
GARDENDALE...
ODESSA...
MIDLAND...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.
Impact counts..all else is nerd fodder.
: )
Yeah it's an odd feature for sure. On the sat view it looks like it is at a higher altitude than the surrounding eye wall clusters. Could it be a resulting wake vortex from a HH aircraft? Or maybe just a cluster of storms that picked up a horizontal rotation. Gotta love weather for these games of clue.
It does help to get things right!!
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
830 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195 >200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-291200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO -FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
830 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION EXPECTED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE UNDER 1 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG OR SLOWER MOVING ACTIVITY.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE GREATEST RISK LIKELY COMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES LIKELY
WITH THE STRONGER OR SLOWER MOVING ACTIVITY. A FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE
NEEDED. RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER THE WEEKEND.
$$
Here it is currently:
Interesting thoughts, but I am anxiously awaiting a random post from someone else about chemtrails, etc., because clearly this is the work of a shadow government!!!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1016 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING WILL WORK THEIR WAY INLAND TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING...SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SLOWER
MOVING ACTIVITY. GREATER RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COMES SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.
VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (>2 INCHES) COUPLED WITH DECENT
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO HELP
TO PRODUCE EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGING 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS EASILY REACHING 2 TO 4 INCHES. EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT! WITH AREA GROUNDS POSSIBLY BECOMING WET AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STORM SYSTEM...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE ISSUED WITH
THIS AFTERNOON`S PACKAGE. EXACTLY WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
AND GREATEST FLASH FLOOD RISK ENDS UP IS STILL HARD TO PINPOINT DUE
TO DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT LARGE PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS EVENT.
HERE ARE SOME AREA RECORD RAINFALL TOTALS (AND YEAR SET) FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SATURDAY (9/29) SUNDAY (9/30)
CLL - 1.84" (1921) 1.85" (1927)
IAH - 2.51" (1985) 2.55" (1913)
HOU - 1.70" (1985) 1.15" (1934)
GLS - 2.12" (1921) 4.33" (1945)
!
Actually the euro shows an open wave also, at least the 00z did.
Update...
flash Flood Advisory posted for today through Saturday evening. The 06z NAM/GFS model runs confirmed a trend that indicates upstream energy
holding up the heavy rain threat over our central counties past 00z Saturday. This increases the likelihood that rainfall amounts in excess of 8 inches will occur over parts of the watch area. Thus have run the Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening. The beginning of the flood threat is expected to stay mostly west of the I-35 corridor for much of today...so have begun the flood threat for the Austin and San Antonio at 6 PM. Even so...a few heavy showers and thunderstorms could produce isolated 1-2 inches across the eastern counties today...before the enhanced heavy rain
threat arrives.
A large number of storms and relatively unscathed season for the Caribbean and US...........We have been very lucky this year, again, on the Atlantic side in terms of no major direct impacts.
Have a Great Weekend Everyone.
And look at Nadine, too, she's looking rather healthy!
She's my favouritest storm of the year... but this year, I have a lot of favourite storms, because they have such tenacity and a no-quit attitude haha.
Hey, the greatest scientific discoveries often begin that ay before they become what they are, I spent most of my childhood doing things like you described above instead of watching cartoons, in fact I still do when I have free time lol. I may have been called a weirdo back then by all the other kids but my parents always defended me and were proud of me for being that way, now I'm glad they did.
Anyways, yes I was actually thinking something similar, it probably is a thermodynamic issue, maybe there is a displacement of heat linearly due to a a rare temperature contrast in that is almost frontal in nature.
One of my favorite experiments is putting dish soap into a deep and large pot of water then boiling it. Then proceed to stir it with a very quick stroke while blowing air from a fan directly downward into the center of the induced vortex, the soap bubbles and steam/water vapor will form a similar structure to that of an eye wall.
Link
Nadine might enter the record books for the "Storm which never threatened land areas but deluged Europe for over a week".
Go figure!
Brian
Most certainly a work of the sinister HAARP. I personally know a sientist who has years of evidense to prove HAARP is evil and sinster and they invented GW with it I sware to U!
Since the circulation of the feature appears to be anticyclonic, is it possible in a super-intense storm like this that a hot tower got "too hot" and sent moisture up into the venting anticyclone with a vortex that maintained the moisture in a small area and didn't let it disperse?
In that sense, it would be like wing-vortexes... the tight spin would maintain and enhance condensation even within an environment that would ordinarily be much too dry to support it.
i am a big fan of the layman's study of vorticity and thermodynamics.. maybe when i grow up, i'll take on the math ;)
did i say grow up? i meant retire..
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