Jelawat brushing Taiwan; Nadine enters its 15th day of life

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on September 27, 2012

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Impressive Super Typhoon Jelawat remains just below Category 5 strength, as it heads north-northwest a few hundred miles east-southeast of Taiwan. The outer rain bands of the mighty typhoon are bringing heavy rains to the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island, and will spread over eastern Taiwan later today, as seen on Taiwan radar. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters do not extend to as great depth as they did when Jelawat was east of the Philippines, though. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 43 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move north-northwest and then north, with the center passing about 150 miles to the east of Taiwan on Friday. Jelawat will likely pass very close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm on Sunday. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Friday morning, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Jelawat taken at 1:03 am EDT Thursday, September 27, 2012. At the time, Jelawat had top winds of 155 mph, and an unusually large 43-mile diameter eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. Super Typhoon Jelawat's rain bands approaching Taiwan at 22:20 local time on September 27, 2012. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.

Nadine enters its 15th day of life
The Energizer-bunny storm of 2012, Tropical Storm Nadine, has entered its 15th day of life as a tropical cyclone. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Tuesday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. That model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure by Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die late next week. However, the 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will miss the trough, and meander in the Central Atlantic for at least the next ten days. Nadine is already in ninth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 202: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Faith, 1966: 15.5 named storm days
9) Nadine, 2012: 15.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 10:15 am EDT Wednesday, September 26, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The rest of the Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic through October 3. Most of the models predict that an extratropical storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, off the coast of Texas. Phase Space Diagrams from Florida State University show that this low is expected to remain non-tropical as it moves east-northeast across the Gulf, potentially coming ashore over the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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426. Jedkins01
4:41 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7576
425. Skyepony (Mod)
3:48 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Latest on the expected bacon shortage due to drought.

As for American grain crops farmers are sitting on their crops waiting for prices to peak. There is also no pressure to decide right away who to sell their wheat, durum and barley now that the Canadian Wheat Board no longer has a monopoly over the marketing of those grains.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38167
424. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
423. Snowfire
3:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Re the above list of long-lived storms: Ivan (2005) had 21 days from naming to final dissipation (after his 4th landfall.)
Member Since: June 29, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 309
422. Skyepony (Mod)
3:39 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
ISLAMABAD (AP) — Pakistan authorities says more than 400 people have been killed by monsoon rains and flooding this year.

The National Disaster Management Authority says 422 people have been killed and nearly 3,000 have been injured during the season of heavy rains. About five million people have been affected by the resulting floods, according to statistics that were posted on the authority's website Friday.

Pakistan suffers every year from flooding caused by massive monsoon rains that sweep across the country late in the summer and cause rivers and streams to overflow.

An official with the authority, Maj. Iftikhar Ahmed, told the AP that the rainfall this year was significantly less than in 2010, when catastrophic floods put one-fifth of the country under water and killed 1,985 people.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38167
421. dabirds
3:38 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Ahaha. Nadine's a hurricane again. Go Nadine!
Chuck would be proud of her, wandering the Atlantic like the Nadine of his song moves about town.

Nice to start with a sunny day and dew point of 47 instead of mid 60s when the front stalled over us midweek.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 746
420. Skyepony (Mod)
3:33 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
I was trying to get a good polar sat shot of that wave around 50W..Everything has missed it so far this morning. Here's Nadine from TRMM..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38167
419. barbamz
3:32 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Good luck, Plaza!

Heavy rainfall hits south Spain, 5,000 to be evacuated
28 September 2012, 15:37 (GMT 05:00)
Civil authorities in the province of Malaga in south Spain on Friday decided to evacuate around 5,000 people as a result of the heavy rainfall in the region, Xinhua reported.

The areas affected are the towns of Cartama, Alora, Sierra de Yeguas, Villanueva del Trabuco and Genalguacil.

Emergency services have decided to activate their emergency plan in response to the rainfall which is forecast to continue all Friday and into the weekend.

The Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has predicted storms with a possible rainfall of 120 liters per square meters over the coming 12 hours.

Meanwhile, several towns are also suffering from power cuts and are without water due to the rain.

The nearby provinces of Granada, Sevilla, Almeria and Cordoba have also been placed on orange alert over the extreme weather.

The rain has finally put an end to one of the hottest and driest summers on record in Spain which saw average temperatures over 1.5 degrees centigrade higher than average. But rainfall is 37 percent lower than average over the last 12 months.

That has created ideal conditions for the spread of wildfires. About 170,000 hectares of countryside have been destroyed by over 4,000 fires this summer. Enditem

Edit: Unfortunately already one fatality.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6023
418. VR46L
3:20 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Seems to be a few clouds of interest in the western Atlantic ..




Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
417. pcola57
3:15 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Sunspots 1579 and 1582 came more fully into view yesterday..
(Kind of Halloweenish lookin'.. )
Credit: solarham.net


Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6842
416. AussieStorm
3:13 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm with you in believing it was stronger than 115 mph. Looked look like a borderline Category 4.

no surface obs, no chance to tell if it was a 3 or 4 only from satellite.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
415. SherwoodSpirit
3:10 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Ahaha. Nadine's a hurricane again. Go Nadine!
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 397
414. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:04 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Did Michael make cat 4 or only Cat 3?
Looked like a Cat 4 to me.

I'm with you in believing it was stronger than 115 mph. Looked look like a borderline Category 4.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
413. AussieStorm
3:04 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Cat 3 status.
Could of been a low end cat 4 easily, without quikscat we couldn't tell.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
412. washingtonian115
3:02 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Did Michael make cat 4 or only Cat 3?
Looked like a Cat 4 to me.
Cat 3 status.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17084
411. Grothar
3:02 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey, she's trying to draw a rough map of Australia.... cool!!!!


Hey, if she does New Zealand, we are in trouble.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
410. AussieStorm
3:00 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Be funny if Nadine did a Micheal.

Did Michael make cat 4 or only Cat 3?
Looked like a Cat 4 to me.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
409. washingtonian115
2:58 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Be funny if Nadine did a Micheal.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17084
408. AussieStorm
2:58 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
That is definitely an eye.


Hey, she's trying to draw a rough map of Australia.... cool!!!!
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
407. Grothar
2:56 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
406. AussieStorm
2:53 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Nadine want's to do a figure 8 now.
A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
405. Grothar
2:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
That is definitely an eye.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
404. Grothar
2:50 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
WTNT34 KNHC 281444
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 64
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

...NADINE BECOMES A HURRICANE FOR THE SECOND TIME...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 34.7W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.7 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
403. Grothar
2:49 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Nadine is back to a hurricane?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
402. Grothar
2:48 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
401. Grothar
2:48 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
400. AussieStorm
2:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Ok, which person followed me then unfollowed me on Twitter? lol, I went from 102 to 104 now 103
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
399. allancalderini
2:44 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
I see Nadine is intensifying and could approach cat 2 intensity before weakening.btw could that tropical wave near Africa develop into something how is wind shear doing near there.I cannot believe Norman form I thought that low press will not develop into something it remember me like the depression that was down to 20%.btw I am in computer class so I will not be long.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
398. wxmod
2:44 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Oh what the!!!!! Grabbing at straws there.


I thought it was an interesting idea attacking Jelawat this way. It might actually work. Must have been lots of aluminum in that rocket fuel.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1764
397. GeorgiaStormz
2:40 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
No.I have a 17 year old daughter.But writing on school property for attention is kinds desperate if you ask me.Well I didn't grow up in this time period of Technology and social media. Yes.They write it on lockers bathroom stalls.That's all I saw but wouldn't be surprised if it's on other stuff to.


oh, you can write stuff anywhere, excessively is vandalism, but you can find stuff anywhere.
Had several thousand followers, but i left it.
Doing it for your personal account is kinda stupid but i was running a news thing so. I would put stuff on bulletin boards etc.
Writing twitter handles etc is something people do all the time.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
396. AussieStorm
2:38 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Desert Climate In Western US Influenced By Ancient Water Cycle


The climate change we are currently experiencing, while disconcerting and increasingly uncomfortable, is not unprecedented when viewed through the historical prism of life on Earth.

A study led by researchers from Texas A&M University’s Department of Oceanography looks back at the water cycle that affected the Western United States in an era dating back some 20,000 years. Focusing on the deserts of Utah and Nevada, the team is seeking to learn more about the large inland lakes that once covered this terrain and how those long-gone lakes still affect weather patterns across the region to this day.

Professor of oceanography Mitch Lyle, along with colleagues from Columbia University, University of California – Santa Cruz, Stanford University, Hokkaido University of Japan and Brown University, along with members of the U.S. Geological Survey, performed their research with funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF). Their results are published in the current issue of Science magazine.

In their study, team worked with the long-held hypothesis that these large inland lakes were formed during the last glacial cooling period when large ice caps that covered what is modern-day Canada melted and released water that once covered as much as a quarter of both Nevada and Utah.

With new research, the team seeks to demonstrate a relationship between water cycles in the Southwestern region of the U.S. and the tropics. They believe that this connection, if demonstrated conclusively, will help researchers to understand how water cycles might be perturbed in the future.

Exploration of this region and the discovery of the dry shorelines of these glacial lakes dates back to nineteenth-century geological research, when the west was first being explored. At the time, the source of the additional water was unknown. It was only by poring over data related to the collection of ocean sediments as well as samples culled from the dry western valleys that Lyle and the team found a new water cycle connection linking the region to tropical influence.

“Large ice caps profoundly altered where storms went during glacial periods. Before this study, it was assumed that Pacific winter storms that now track into Washington and Canada were pushed south into central and southern California,” Lyle notes. “However, by comparing timing between wet intervals on the coast, where these storms would first strike, with growth of the inland lakes, we found that they didn’t match.”

By examining pollen buried in marine sediments, Lyle was able to time wet periods along the California coast. These pollen samples were collected via core sampling performed by scientists associated with the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program at Texas A&M. Their lake level evaluations were drawn from southeast Oregon, Nevada, Utah, eastern California, New Mexico and west Texas, with the intent of determining when the lakes would fill in different parts of the west.

“Many teams of scientists have been working on this problem since the 1950s, when radiocarbon dating first allowed ages to be put on old shorelines,” Lyle adds. “The data we synthesized covers a wide latitude so that we could determine how the glacial wet intervals operated.”

Of particular interest was the observation that only in southern California’s coastal wet intervals was there a match to the high, inland lakes. This finding is what pointed the researchers to the tropical connection they had come to believe existed. This indicated that storms would cycle into the region from the tropical Pacific, originating west of Mexico.

“We think that the extra precipitation may have come in summer, enhancing the now weak summer monsoon in the desert southwest. But we need more information about what season the storms arrived to strengthen this speculation,” Lyle says.

Not only is the development of the glacial lakes important for understanding prehistoric climate patterns, but Lyle believes it likely that the lakes were an important factor in the migration of people into North America. Many of the archaeological sites where early Indians settled when they first came into the U.S. are rock shelters at the edges of these ancient lakes. The lakes were a major source of fish and a gathering place for deer and wildfowl at that time.

“What we need to do now is look at all of this on a finer scale,” Lyle points out. “We need to understand better the processes that directed the storms thousands of years ago, and to predict better what changes might occur in the future.”


Source: Alan McStravick for redOrbit.com - Your Universe Online

redOrbit (http://s.tt/1oC5Q)
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
395. washingtonian115
2:36 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Aren't your children less than 7 years old?
I have a twitter account i spread randomly, its a news feed i run/ran (i've kinda left if for a couple weeks...ok months) ....i just randomly shared it with friends or put it places...no desperation there.

My other one is my account that i use with friends, i dont share that, yes im a multiaccounter.

My main social media account is Google Plus, I somewhat dumped facebook and twitter.



btw, this link is addictive Cyclone Center

You are classifying storms based on satellite appearance, by answering questions about form.
I'm guessing the storms as i do them, hopefully i can do a ton when i get out of school today.
No.I have a 17 year old daughter.But writing on school property for attention is kinds desperate if you ask me.Well I didn't grow up in this time period of Technology and social media.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Oh, you serious??? I wouldn't have a clue about that over here, I not been to skool in 18years. Can you tel? lol

I only just crossed the 100 mark in followers.
Yes.They write it on lockers bathroom stalls.That's all I saw but wouldn't be surprised if it's on other stuff to.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17084
394. AussieStorm
2:26 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting wxmod:
Very polluted cirrus and a possible expanded rocket trail south east of Jelawat. This type of pollution tends to slide a storm toward it, in this case, East. MODIS


Oh what the!!!!! Grabbing at straws there.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
393. GeorgiaStormz
2:26 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
You sound like one of those desperate high schoolers Aussie that put there twitter accounts all over the school property(J/K)But seriously.When my daughter told me I didn't believe her until I went to her school for school night.It as real sad...


Aren't your children less than 7 years old?
I have a twitter account i spread randomly, its a news feed i run/ran (i've kinda left if for a couple weeks...ok months) ....i just randomly shared it with friends or put it places...no desperation there.

My other one is my account that i use with friends, i dont share that, yes im a multiaccounter.

My main social media account is Google Plus, I somewhat dumped facebook and twitter.



btw, this link is addictive Cyclone Center

You are classifying storms based on satellite appearance, by answering questions about form.
I'm guessing the storms as i do them, hopefully i can do a ton when i get out of school today.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
392. AussieStorm
2:25 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
You sound like one of those desperate high schoolers Aussie that put there twitter accounts all over the school property(J/K)But seriously.When my daughter told me I didn't believe her until I went to her school for school night.It as real sad...

Oh, you serious??? I wouldn't have a clue about that over here, I not been to skool in 18years. Can you tel? lol

I only just crossed the 100 mark in followers.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
391. wxmod
2:22 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Very polluted cirrus and a possible expanded rocket trail south east of Jelawat. This type of pollution tends to slide a storm toward it, in this case, East. MODIS

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1764
390. AussieStorm
2:21 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Gee, I just noticed Dr Masters fixed up the mistake he made with Gingers year.

Was 1) Ginger, 1970: 21.25 named storm days

Now 1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days

Thanks for not crediting me with picking up your mistake Dr Masters.

Your welcome
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
389. washingtonian115
2:20 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:
If anyone cares, I have a Twitter account, you can follow me here.
You sound like one of those desperate high schoolers Aussie that put there twitter accounts all over the school property(J/K)But seriously.When my daughter told me I didn't believe her until I went to her school for school night.It as real sad...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17084
388. AussieStorm
2:16 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Maybe she can meet up with Karen and they can discuss about there long stay in the Atlantic.

I think 1971 Ginger is still out there somewhere also.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
387. Bluestorm5
2:16 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nadine is once again a Hurricane. This thing is the energizer bunny, just keeps on going, and going, and going, and going.


Nadine doesn't look half bad at all.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 989.5mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.2 5.3


Nadine is just going... going... going... going...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8030
386. AussieStorm
2:15 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
If anyone cares, I have a Twitter account, you can follow me here.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
385. washingtonian115
2:15 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

What if there isn't another storm, she'll just hang out there till next season?
Maybe she can meet up with Karen and they can discuss about there long stay in the Atlantic.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17084
384. GeoffreyWPB
2:13 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142012
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2012

SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA NOW HAS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. SHIPS OBSERVATIONS
OF 45 TO 50 KT FROM ELEVATED ANEMOMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS AROUND 40 KT...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN AT THIS TIME. NORMAN IS SITUATED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF 15 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS DISPLACED ABOUT A
DEGREE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS SHEAR IS
FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND...SO THE NHC FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A LITTLE INTENSIFICATION
BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...QUICK WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/14...AS NORMAN IS SITUATED
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A
MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND NORMAN IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
WITHIN 24 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE MAY TURN
NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH LANDFALL.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
CENTER SINCE NORMAN HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE
WINDS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND FAR
WESTERN DURANGO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 22.8N 108.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 24.8N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 26.5N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 27.5N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED


Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11271
383. DavidHOUTX
2:10 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
:D :D :D :D :D :D :D

Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
382. AussieStorm
2:08 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Sky News Australia has finally caught onto what I was saying in my Bush fire blog
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
381. Thing342
2:07 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Going directly from an 80% "poorly defined area of low pressure" to a TS, the EPac now has Norman, at least according to the ATCF:

EP, 14, 2012092812, , BEST, 0, 222N, 1087W, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 0, 30, 1006, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORMAN, M,
I doubt Norm will be able to get very strong, as it is not well organized. 45 mph TS at best.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
380. washingtonian115
2:06 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:
When could we see Nadine upgraded to a Hurricane again? 11am??
Yes.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17084
379. AussieStorm
2:05 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nadine is waiting for the next storm to form in the Atlantic then that's when she'll die..in another two weeks...Lol.

What if there isn't another storm, she'll just hang out there till next season?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
378. AussieStorm
2:02 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
When could we see Nadine upgraded to a Hurricane again? 11am??
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
377. SFLWeatherman
2:02 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
lol
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nadine is waiting for the next storm to form in the Atlantic then that's when she'll die..in another two weeks...Lol.
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4680
376. washingtonian115
2:01 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
Nadine is waiting for the next storm to form in the Atlantic then that's when she'll die..in another two weeks...Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17084

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.