Jelawat brushing Taiwan; Nadine enters its 15th day of life

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on September 27, 2012

Share this Blog
38
+

Impressive Super Typhoon Jelawat remains just below Category 5 strength, as it heads north-northwest a few hundred miles east-southeast of Taiwan. The outer rain bands of the mighty typhoon are bringing heavy rains to the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island, and will spread over eastern Taiwan later today, as seen on Taiwan radar. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters do not extend to as great depth as they did when Jelawat was east of the Philippines, though. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 43 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move north-northwest and then north, with the center passing about 150 miles to the east of Taiwan on Friday. Jelawat will likely pass very close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm on Sunday. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Friday morning, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Jelawat taken at 1:03 am EDT Thursday, September 27, 2012. At the time, Jelawat had top winds of 155 mph, and an unusually large 43-mile diameter eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. Super Typhoon Jelawat's rain bands approaching Taiwan at 22:20 local time on September 27, 2012. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.

Nadine enters its 15th day of life
The Energizer-bunny storm of 2012, Tropical Storm Nadine, has entered its 15th day of life as a tropical cyclone. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Tuesday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. That model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure by Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die late next week. However, the 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will miss the trough, and meander in the Central Atlantic for at least the next ten days. Nadine is already in ninth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 202: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Faith, 1966: 15.5 named storm days
9) Nadine, 2012: 15.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 10:15 am EDT Wednesday, September 26, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The rest of the Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic through October 3. Most of the models predict that an extratropical storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, off the coast of Texas. Phase Space Diagrams from Florida State University show that this low is expected to remain non-tropical as it moves east-northeast across the Gulf, potentially coming ashore over the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 26 - 1

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 — Blog Index

Quoting hydrus:
Thanks Doc. I thought Ginger was in 1971. Not that its a big deal.
1971 Hurricane Ginger's track:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You guys are going to love this, and I think this site is a great place to get initial exposure for this project.

This project is a wonderful idea, allowing people to classify tropical cyclones based on IR satellite imagery. They are going to use user data to construct a new global TC intensity record. It's great fun. I'll be hooked on it for a while.

http://www.cyclonecenter.org/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Melagoo:
I'd say our season is most likely over now ... nothing shows up in forecast models ... :c)
I believe we will have one or two in October. There is plenty of warm water in the Western Caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Jeff...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Doc. I thought Ginger was in 1971. Not that its a big deal.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
102 hrs. this might be a rather strong non-tropical low.


May have enough time to transition into a fully or sub-tropical storm.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC's 27Sept.12pm ATCF data for TropicalStormNadine
27Sept.12am: TS.Nadine had been headed 203.6*SSWest @ 7.5mph(12.1km/h)
27Sept.06am: TS.Nadine had been headed 199.4*SSWest @ 6.1mph (9.8km/h)
27Sept.12pm: TS.Nadine had been headed 247.1*WSWest@ 8.8mph(14.1km/h)

FNC-Madeira :: AGA-Agadir :: VDE-ElHierro :: NDB-Nouadhibou

The 5 kinked lines traces Nadine's path on its 11th thru 15th days after becoming a NamedStorm
The southernwesternmost dot on the 2 connected straight lines is TS.Nadine's most recent position

Copy&paste fnc, aga, vde, ndb, 32.5n26.8w- 31.8n26.7w- 30.8n26.5w- 30.4n26.0w- 30.4n25.8w, 30.4n25.8w- 30.4n25.6w- 30.5n25.4w- 30.9n25.8w- 31.1n26.1w, 31.1n26.1w- 31.3n26.6w- 31.6n27.5w- 31.8n28.1w- 32.2n28.7w, 32.2n28.7w- 32.2n29.4w- 31.9n29.9w- 31.8n30.2w- 31.4n30.3w, 31.4n30.3w- 31.1n30.3w- 30.7n30.5w- 30.2n30.8w- 29.6n31.1w, 29.6n31.1w-29.1n31.3w, 29.1n31.3w-28.8n32.1w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CMC at 114HR and GFS at 111HR in the GOM

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
102 hrs. this might be a rather strong non-tropical low.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
13. whitewabit (Mod)
Thanks Dr Masters for the updated info ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank you for the new blog Dr. Masters
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Melagoo:
I'd say our season is most likely over now ... nothing shows up in forecast models ... :c)


as always things could and can change

afternoon blog

just checking in on lunch be here till 1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is a satellite photo of Suluwesi yesterday, you know, the pristine diving spot. This smog is being sucked up into Jelawat and, depending on what the pollutant is, could cause the storm to change course, weaken or even strengthen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nadine will stick around for awhile most likely. I think Jelawat will make it back up to Cat. 5 streangth by Saturday, considering the fact that it has 155 mph winds currently.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Thanks, Doc. I think we jut found a new Theme Song for the Weather Channel.

The original version of Nadine by Chuck Berry from 1964 is much better.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks, Doc. I think we jut found a new Theme Song for the Weather Channel.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23710
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting wxmod:
Polluted cirrus east of Jelawat. Modis today.

this is a far more accurate caption for a photo such as this..
thanks for the new blog Dr. M!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Polluted cirrus east of Jelawat. Modis today.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'd say our season is most likely over now ... nothing shows up in forecast models ... :c)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks, Doc. Quite a picture of Jelawat. Let's hope she weakens fast as she approaches land.

Those poor guys at the NHC with Nadine. I can just imagine how the conversation goes:

"I don't know, Harry, she looks like 55 knots to me" says Tom.
"No way, Tom, I think she's at 45 knots" says Harry.
Chief forecaster Dick says "OK, lets split the difference and call her 50 knots".
Everyone: "Sounds good to me. Let's get some breakfast".

Some days must be just this exciting at the NHC. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 26 - 1

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.