Jelawat brushing Taiwan; Nadine enters its 15th day of life

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on September 27, 2012

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Impressive Super Typhoon Jelawat remains just below Category 5 strength, as it heads north-northwest a few hundred miles east-southeast of Taiwan. The outer rain bands of the mighty typhoon are bringing heavy rains to the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island, and will spread over eastern Taiwan later today, as seen on Taiwan radar. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters do not extend to as great depth as they did when Jelawat was east of the Philippines, though. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 43 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move north-northwest and then north, with the center passing about 150 miles to the east of Taiwan on Friday. Jelawat will likely pass very close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm on Sunday. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Friday morning, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Jelawat taken at 1:03 am EDT Thursday, September 27, 2012. At the time, Jelawat had top winds of 155 mph, and an unusually large 43-mile diameter eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. Super Typhoon Jelawat's rain bands approaching Taiwan at 22:20 local time on September 27, 2012. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.

Nadine enters its 15th day of life
The Energizer-bunny storm of 2012, Tropical Storm Nadine, has entered its 15th day of life as a tropical cyclone. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Tuesday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. That model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure by Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die late next week. However, the 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will miss the trough, and meander in the Central Atlantic for at least the next ten days. Nadine is already in ninth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 202: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Faith, 1966: 15.5 named storm days
9) Nadine, 2012: 15.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 10:15 am EDT Wednesday, September 26, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The rest of the Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic through October 3. Most of the models predict that an extratropical storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, off the coast of Texas. Phase Space Diagrams from Florida State University show that this low is expected to remain non-tropical as it moves east-northeast across the Gulf, potentially coming ashore over the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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76. auburn (Mod)
Quoting calkevin77:


Hopefully as its starting to cool off the ground out your way wont be so dry and actually break the virga cycle. It seems like the last 6 months or so a heat rain shadow has built up out there. One good storm your way and I think you'll have a more favorable pattern though. Fingers crossed.


We had some cool air last week..it was nice..been back up in the 90s for most of this week,I am looking forward to winter myself..hope we have a winter this year..we missed out on it last year.
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NADINE GETS ABSORBED....FINALLY OUT!
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74. whitewabit (Mod)
I walked into the cornfield across the road from me and this is what I found ..

1 out of 20 10 inches long
4 out of 20 7 inches long
13 out of 20 5 inches long or less
2 out of 20 with no ears developed

All due to the lack of rain ... ears should be 12 inches long and about three inches around .. all that I found were much smaller ..
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Quoting JLPR2:
I see our eternal TS Nadine is looking healthier today.

Hi, you're back haven't seen you in awhile, unless I miss you every time you post now?
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Quoting auburn:


I hope this come to pass..its pretty dry here in my part of Alabama..but it seems every time I get excited over the possibility of some rain it never materializes..I know others need it as well.


Hopefully as its starting to cool off the ground out your way wont be so warm and actually break the virga cycle. It seems like the last 6 months or so a heat rain shadow has built up out there. One good storm your way and I think you'll have a more favorable pattern though. Fingers crossed.
Member Since: June 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 838
Quoting whitewabit:


Wish all of that rain would move up here to the Midwest .. we are still way behind on rainfall .. Farmers need the rain now for next years crops ..


I hear you on that. I'm hoping that this fall and into early winter a pineapple express type pattern sets up off the pacific and the moisture train catches some troughs both north and south sending some precip your way. We’re making up for last year’s drought slowly here in TX so I guess slow and steady is the key. We’ll take what we can get.
Member Since: June 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 838
I see our eternal TS Nadine is looking healthier today.

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Quoting calkevin77:


Looks like its setting up for a wide area of much needed rain over the next five days.
Interesting based on this chart it looks like the front does not make it all the way down to the peninsula of FL.
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68. auburn (Mod)
Quoting plutorising:
sorry, auburn, i've read the rules of the road and try to follow them (mainly by lurking).

it's just that, like a few days ago, when everybody was in a slagging war over some global warming topic - they were all breaking the rules of the road, and nothing seemed to happen to them (unless i missed something). maybe there's a breaking point. i do think people should be banned for such timewasting posts, but it seemed like they were enjoying themselves...


I do my share of lurking here on the Drs blog also..just have gotten to where I post some..I dont know much about weather for one thing..and up until the past few weeks there was just too much trolling going on on this blog..I am happy to see that it is getting better..I feel more comfortable posting here now.
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67. auburn (Mod)
Quoting calkevin77:


Looks like its setting up for a wide area of much needed rain over the next five days.


I hope this come to pass..its pretty dry here in my part of Alabama..but it seems every time I get excited over the possibility of some rain it never materializes..I know others need it as well.
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66. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting calkevin77:


Looks like its setting up for a wide area of much needed rain over the next five days.


Wish all of that rain would move up here to the Midwest .. we are still way behind on rainfall .. Farmers need the rain now for next years crops ..
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Quoting Hurrihistory:
The original version of Nadine by Chuck Berry from 1964 is much better.


Yes, I know, but the quality was bad and you couldn't hear it well, so I made an executive decision to play the Waylon Jennings version. That is why I put the credit in for Chuck Berry on the video.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345


Looks like its setting up for a wide area of much needed rain over the next five days.
Member Since: June 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 838
63. auburn (Mod)
Quoting plutorising:
sorry, auburn, i've read the rules of the road and try to follow them (mainly by lurking).

it's just that, like a few days ago, when everybody was in a slagging war over some global warming topic - they were all breaking the rules of the road, and nothing seemed to happen to them (unless i missed something). maybe there's a breaking point. i do think people should be banned for such timewasting posts, but it seemed like they were enjoying themselves...


Well as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic they are allowed from what I understand..as long as folks dont get into name calling and personal attacks..I think this is a new rule also..I dont remember seeing it till a couple of weeks ago.

I think they are trying to encourage civilized discussion/debate even on this blog..
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Flooding from Hurricane Gloria, Cape May, New Jersey.
Date 26 September 1985..WIKI..Long Island and New York
Boardwalk damage in Ocean City, New Jersey

Though Gloria hit Long Island with winds of 85 mph (140 km/h), wind gusts reached 115 mph (185 km/h) in eastern Long Island. Islip, New York recorded a wind gust of 84 mph (135 km/h). However, few other wind reports were available from the island, as other weather instruments were damaged. Weather forecasters believe that damage across parts of Long Island indicated winds in the Category Three range, as evidence of the damage received at MacArthur Airport. Because the hurricane arrived at low tide, storm surges were generally low, peaking at 6.9 feet (2.1 m) at Battery Park. Because it moved quickly, Gloria failed to produce significant rainfall amounts, and caused only 3.4 inches (86 mm) of rain in Central Park.

Gloria's high winds caused significant damage across Long Island and southeastern New York. The area hit the worst was eastern Long Island, where high wind gusts blew thousands of trees into buildings and across roads. The broadcast tower of WBLI-FM toppled on Bald Hill in Farmingville. In addition, the winds ripped roofs off of many buildings, including hangars at the MacArthur Airport and the roof of the Islip Police Station. Prolonged exposure to high winds and waves led to moderate beach erosion, washing away several piers and docks. The storm surge, though relatively weak, destroyed 48 houses on the ocean side of the island. Gloria's high winds left 683,000 people in New York without power, with some lacking electricity for over eleven days. Even though damage amounted to $300 million ($532 million in 2005 USD), due to well-executed evacuations there was only one casualty, resulting from a falling tree.
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sorry, auburn, i've read the rules of the road and try to follow them (mainly by lurking).

it's just that, like a few days ago, when everybody was in a slagging war over some global warming topic - they were all breaking the rules of the road, and nothing seemed to happen to them (unless i missed something). maybe there's a breaking point. i do think people should be banned for such timewasting posts, but it seemed like they were enjoying themselves...
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Good afternoon everyone. It has been a pleasant quiet day here in the Keys. I even had dew on the car this morning. Hadn't noticed it before, but it was probably there. But I can officially say that fall is here because of the dew. I had a heck of a time signing in this morning. This site wouldn't let me. LOL That's what I get for signing off. Sometimes I forget and it keeps me signed on. Anyway admin got it fixed. Have a great day everyone.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
Gloria near peak intensity on September 24
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Today marks the 27th anniversary of Hurricane Gloria. I flew out of Newark just 12 hours before she hit..Boardwalk damage in Ocean City, New JerseyFormed September 16, 1985
Dissipated October 2, 1985 (Became extratropical on September 27)
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
145 mph (230 km/h)
Lowest pressure 919 mbar (hPa); 27.14 inHg
Fatalities 8 direct
Damage $900 million (1985 USD)
Areas affected North Carolina, New Jersey, Long Island, New England, Atlantic Canada.
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57. auburn (Mod)
Quoting plutorising:
how do you get banned? i'd be interested to learn what you did, if it's not prying.


Well in this blog(the Drs)if you dont follow the Rules for the road is the best way to get banned.and they are as follows.
Due to the high amount of traffic that Dr. Masters' blog receives, a special community standard has been established for the blog. The following list comprises the "Rules of the Road" for Dr. Masters' blog.

Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.
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This looks interesting.
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how do you get banned? i'd be interested to learn what you did, if it's not prying.
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54. auburn (Mod)
Quoting baltimorebirdsisback:
I hope so to.Its a shame I was banned during the 2010 atlantic hurricane season.It was so interesting and the storms were fun to track.


Just keep your nose clean..they have really clamped down around here the past few months..even added new rules to the rules for the road..seem to have gotten rid of most of the trolls and spam..I think it a better place myself.
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Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
51. auburn (Mod)
Quoting baltimorebirdsisback:
I was banned and I told the admin to let me pass but they didn.t.Some of the old ones are gone where is flood man?


Good to see you..I hope you can stick around a while this time and not get banned again..its always nice to see some of the old blogger coming back to the site.
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surges of moisture are appearing just w of the windwards. seems to be on the uptick.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4328
That is a whole lot of sheer over the GOM for any kind of development.
Anyone else notice the low number of sunspots this year? we are about 20 under predicted.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Season's not done yet folks, in fact I think the season will last until Nov. and my 18/9/3 prediction still stands.
My numbers were 14/8/3. So I may have underestimated this year. We are currently 14/8/1..
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Quoting baltimorebirdsisback:
How many hours out is that cape verde storm? Isn't it a little late for that to be happening?
It starts to take shape around the 9th and here is the points of origin for storms that have formed between the 1st and the 10th of Oct. So definitely winding down, but not out of the realm of possibility.

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Season's not done yet folks, in fact I think the season will last until Nov. and my 18/9/3 prediction still stands.
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Quoting baltimorebirdsisback:
We need something else besides Nadine out there.Shes a loner for life.
Well, she has not really beat anyone up yet, I give her points for that.
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12Z GFS big snow!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4389
Thank you Dr. Masters, Persistant Nadine lives on.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Fantasy land, but double wow! Strengthening Cape-Verde Storm and Deep Trough over the US.

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Quoting baltimorebirdsisback:
I was banned and I told the admin to let me pass but they didn.t.Some of the old ones are gone where is flood man?
He is around, but not often. He seems to work more now that his back is better. I feel October has a good chance of producing a storm or two, but the MJO is still not in a position to increase the chances of formation anytime soon.
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276 hrs. one last Cape-Verde Storm for the year?

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138 hrs. Ridge blocks its progression eastward and turns it north towards the Gulf Coast.



132 hrs. Lifted Index:

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Quoting baltimorebirdsisback:
Hey hydrus been awhile now.
Yes. Where did ya go?..
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no change of the old forecast of 4 more. changer dont work. looks dire with the non stop windshear
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4328
Quoting hydrus:
Thanks Doc. I thought Ginger was in 1971. Not that its a big deal.
1971 Hurricane Ginger's track:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.