Jelawat brushing Taiwan; Nadine enters its 15th day of life

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on September 27, 2012

Share this Blog
38
+

Impressive Super Typhoon Jelawat remains just below Category 5 strength, as it heads north-northwest a few hundred miles east-southeast of Taiwan. The outer rain bands of the mighty typhoon are bringing heavy rains to the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island, and will spread over eastern Taiwan later today, as seen on Taiwan radar. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters do not extend to as great depth as they did when Jelawat was east of the Philippines, though. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 43 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move north-northwest and then north, with the center passing about 150 miles to the east of Taiwan on Friday. Jelawat will likely pass very close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm on Sunday. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Friday morning, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Jelawat taken at 1:03 am EDT Thursday, September 27, 2012. At the time, Jelawat had top winds of 155 mph, and an unusually large 43-mile diameter eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. Super Typhoon Jelawat's rain bands approaching Taiwan at 22:20 local time on September 27, 2012. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.

Nadine enters its 15th day of life
The Energizer-bunny storm of 2012, Tropical Storm Nadine, has entered its 15th day of life as a tropical cyclone. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Tuesday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. That model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure by Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die late next week. However, the 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will miss the trough, and meander in the Central Atlantic for at least the next ten days. Nadine is already in ninth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 202: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Faith, 1966: 15.5 named storm days
9) Nadine, 2012: 15.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 10:15 am EDT Wednesday, September 26, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The rest of the Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic through October 3. Most of the models predict that an extratropical storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, off the coast of Texas. Phase Space Diagrams from Florida State University show that this low is expected to remain non-tropical as it moves east-northeast across the Gulf, potentially coming ashore over the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 126 - 76

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

126. auburn (Mod)
Quoting sar2401:

I'm over in Prattville. No rain here since September 17, although we are still ahead of normal for September. Actually had a couple nights in the last week where I turned on my little electric heater to take the chill off in the morning. Very nice compared to te long, hot summer we've had. If this front to the north ever gets moving, we should cool off again Tuesday or Wednesday. Might also get a surface low forming off the tail end of the front over LA once the front moves into the Gulf, which might be interesting.


Prattville...howdy neighbor!!!,I am in Beauregard (Opelika/Auburn area)my little hill is in the dark red area on the drought map,storms seem to die out just before they get to me here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 84 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.


I remember when you typed that there were 284 days left and 184 days left. We're making progress.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting indianrivguy:


won't we all die a couple weeks before that?

Howdy Pat, good to see ya.


Oh I hope not big Guy to my East.

: )

Good to see yas as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
Quoting biff4ugo:
That is a whole lot of sheer over the GOM for any kind of development.
Anyone else notice the low number of sunspots this year? we are about 20 under predicted.

Yes, we ham radio operators have certainly noticed. We're supposed to be approaching a sunspot maxima and, instead, it's worse than last year, when it was supposed to be neutral. Long distance communications on HF are terrible, with lots of atmospheric noise. The predictions for sunspot activity have been way off this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Today's wunderground Daily Double Double question.

What instrument does Dr. Jeff Masters play?




The weather bell?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 84 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.


won't we all die a couple weeks before that?

Howdy Pat, good to see ya.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2639
Today's wunderground Daily Double Double question.

What instrument does Dr. Jeff Masters play?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A funnel cloud has been sighted with these storms:



The plains of Colorado get frequent funnel clouds, but they generally stay in the F1-F2 range due to the destabilizing effect of the nearby mountains. For those not familiar with Colorado geography, the west half of this radar image is mostly mountains and the east half is just about as flat as Kansas. You can actually use the towns of Fort Collins, Denver, Colorado Springs, and Pueblo as an approximate line showing where the plains give way to mountains as each of these towns is located at the point of transition.



... A Tornado Warning remains in effect for northwestern El Paso
County until 245 PM MDT...

At 221 PM MDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This dangerous
storm was located near Woodland Park... or 14 miles northwest of
Colorado Springs... moving east at 15 mph.

Rotation has increased with this storm between 215 PM and 220 PM.

Locations impacted include...
west side of Colorado Springs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
114. icmoore

Enjoy it fer sure.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
Quoting icmoore:


Thanks Pat! I was wondering when and meant to look it up. Last year was the first year I viewed it where we live now and my husband was not here at the time. It was so awesome to see I can't wait to see it again and take a few pictures :)


I've taken a lot of pictures of harvest moons over the years, none were even close to that beauty Pat posted.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2639
There are now 84 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
Quoting Patrap:
Look For The Harvest Moon This Weekend



Take a moment to gaze at the beautiful harvest moon this Saturday, September 29th.


Thanks Pat! I was wondering when and meant to look it up. Last year was the first year I viewed it where we live now and my husband was not here at the time. It was so awesome to see I can't wait to see it again and take a few pictures :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting auburn:


Yea we had all the doors and windows open last week..sad to have to turn the AC back on..but its to hot and sticky not to.Hope you get some rain were ever you might be!

I'm over in Prattville. No rain here since September 17, although we are still ahead of normal for September. Actually had a couple nights in the last week where I turned on my little electric heater to take the chill off in the morning. Very nice compared to te long, hot summer we've had. If this front to the north ever gets moving, we should cool off again Tuesday or Wednesday. Might also get a surface low forming off the tail end of the front over LA once the front moves into the Gulf, which might be interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As of the new advisory Jelawat is expected to be at about 110kts as it goes over Okinawa, and it's expected to be a minimal typhoon as it heads into Tokyo:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Scientists face four years in prison for failing to predict earthquake

Sounds like this is a case of scientist not using probabilities when explaining risks. If he really told the Civil Protection Agency there was "no danger" that a larger earthquake would happen, he stepped out of his role as a scientist and started playing with a crystal ball. It's not clear to me why he should be facing a prison term, but it was pretty dumb behavior for someone who should have known better.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
STY Jelawat has easily surpassed Cyclone Funso of the Southern Hemisphere as the storm with the highest ACE this year, and it will continue to add to its total for the next couple days.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Watching 94E in the EPAC as it gets drawled north and pulled into MX and it's moisture pulled into the trough over TX, that is supposed to open the door for widespread rains for TX.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
107. auburn (Mod)
Quoting sar2401:

Looks like our best chance for rain is Sunday, and even that will be scattered thunderstorms. At least we're set up for about a week of return flow from the Gulf, which should help kick off some afternoon thunderstorms for next week, but the chances aren't much better than climatology, ony about 20-30%. Sure warmed up fast though. I just spent two hours in the sun fixing the ignition unit on my water heater and I'm trying to cool off again while waiting for some hot water to take a shower. My weather station is showing 91 now, 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. It has been nice not having to run the A/C at night but it looks like that's coming to an end for the next five days or so.


Yea we had all the doors and windows open last week..sad to have to turn the AC back on..but its to hot and sticky not to.Hope you get some rain were ever you might be!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon everyone, I see Nadine is looking better.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
El Nino better kick in soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Miriam's looking a little empty...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting auburn:


I hope this come to pass..its pretty dry here in my part of Alabama..but it seems every time I get excited over the possibility of some rain it never materializes..I know others need it as well.

Looks like our best chance for rain is Sunday, and even that will be scattered thunderstorms. At least we're set up for about a week of return flow from the Gulf, which should help kick off some afternoon thunderstorms for next week, but the chances aren't much better than climatology, ony about 20-30%. Sure warmed up fast though. I just spent two hours in the sun fixing the ignition unit on my water heater and I'm trying to cool off again while waiting for some hot water to take a shower. My weather station is showing 91 now, 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. It has been nice not having to run the A/C at night but it looks like that's coming to an end for the next five days or so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ok got too go be back after 5
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
I tell you what if rain doesn't start in the bread basket this fall/winter, our food supply gettin' ready to take turn for the worse.



Getting out of control if you ask me
The outlook isn't too great for the western two-thirds. Some of Texas and the Mississippi/Ohio River valleys improve, but the Northwest joins in on the "fun":

drought
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A funnel cloud has been sighted with these storms:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I tell you what if rain doesn't start in the bread basket this fall/winter, our food supply gettin' ready to take turn for the worse.



Getting out of control if you ask me
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Harvest Moon

Come a little bit closer
Hear what I have to say
Just like children sleepin'
We could dream this night away.

But there's a full moon risin'
Let's go dancin' in the light
We know where the music's playin'
Let's go out and feel the night.

Because I'm still in love with you
I want to see you dance again
Because I'm still in love with you
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
Last significant rain at my place was September 1st, only 0.99" with only a few other periods of 0.16" to a trace....which were evaporated into thin air in a matter of hours in the burning sun.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Look For The Harvest Moon This Weekend



Take a moment to gaze at the beautiful harvest moon this Saturday, September 29th.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
At least the sun is knocked out from the high clouds and numerous cumulus today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Glad that stationary front finally edged a little farther south, first glimpse of the sun since Monday. Must be a little clearer further north, don't often see this: Spfld, IL - 73, 70 here, and StL only 68.

Whitewabit this summer was first time I've seen corn with tassels and no ears at all. Granted, later corn on white clay soil, but usually you at least see a nubbin ear. We weren't as dry as the rest of the state either. But I also can't ever remember a drought year where we got absolutely no moisture during the tassel period. So dry there was very little dew in the morning to help get some pollination.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


just in on break
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
91. auburn (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:


Sure is HOT-sui aub,..u betcha


yea,we had some cool air last week..but its gone..back to hot and sticky..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting auburn:


Afternoon Pat..about the same here weather wise..


Sure is HOT-sui aub,..u betcha
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
We're waiting for rain here in TX. People and animals all looking to the sky for soaking rains that may or may not come Friday thru Sunday.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
87. auburn (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
New Orleans Weather at a Glance

Weather Station - report

Uptown, New Orleans
Elevation
20 ft

Scattered Clouds
Temperature
87.4 F
Feels Like 93 F


Afternoon Pat..about the same here weather wise..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New Orleans Weather at a Glance

Weather Station - report

Uptown, New Orleans
Elevation
20 ft

Scattered Clouds
Temperature
87.4 F
Feels Like 93 F
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
Quoting RitaEvac:
Scientists face four years in prison for failing to predict earthquake



I heard this shook up the entire scientific industry.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
It is a beautiful day and 88 degrees here in Dunedin, FL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The ATCF says Nadin is up to 55 knots:

AL, 14, 2012092718, , BEST, 0, 287N, 325W, 55, 993, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 50, 1014, 180, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
80. auburn (Mod)
Quoting whitewabit:
Aubie ... that is a reduction of yield of 40 to 50% ..
Hard on the pocket book


Yea that is true..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
79. whitewabit (Mod)
Aubie ... that is a reduction of yield of 40 to 50% ..
Hard on the pocket book
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Interesting based on this chart it looks like the front does not make it all the way down to the peninsula of FL.


Yeah I was thinking that too. It’s a five day cumulative so it’s anyone’s guess. Not sure but there may be a blocking ridge hanging out up in GA for a day or so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
77. auburn (Mod)
Quoting whitewabit:
I walked into the cornfield across the road from me and this is what I found ..

1 out of 20 10 inches long
4 out of 20 7 inches long
13 out of 20 5 inches long or less
2 out of 20 with no ears developed

All due to the lack of rain ... ears should be 12 inches long and about three inches around .. all that I found were much smaller ..


Its the same here..although I must say those small ears are packed with flavor.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
76. auburn (Mod)
Quoting calkevin77:


Hopefully as its starting to cool off the ground out your way wont be so dry and actually break the virga cycle. It seems like the last 6 months or so a heat rain shadow has built up out there. One good storm your way and I think you'll have a more favorable pattern though. Fingers crossed.


We had some cool air last week..it was nice..been back up in the 90s for most of this week,I am looking forward to winter myself..hope we have a winter this year..we missed out on it last year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 126 - 76

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron