Jelawat brushing Taiwan; Nadine enters its 15th day of life

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on September 27, 2012

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Impressive Super Typhoon Jelawat remains just below Category 5 strength, as it heads north-northwest a few hundred miles east-southeast of Taiwan. The outer rain bands of the mighty typhoon are bringing heavy rains to the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island, and will spread over eastern Taiwan later today, as seen on Taiwan radar. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters do not extend to as great depth as they did when Jelawat was east of the Philippines, though. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 43 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move north-northwest and then north, with the center passing about 150 miles to the east of Taiwan on Friday. Jelawat will likely pass very close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm on Sunday. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Friday morning, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Jelawat taken at 1:03 am EDT Thursday, September 27, 2012. At the time, Jelawat had top winds of 155 mph, and an unusually large 43-mile diameter eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. Super Typhoon Jelawat's rain bands approaching Taiwan at 22:20 local time on September 27, 2012. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.

Nadine enters its 15th day of life
The Energizer-bunny storm of 2012, Tropical Storm Nadine, has entered its 15th day of life as a tropical cyclone. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Tuesday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. That model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure by Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die late next week. However, the 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will miss the trough, and meander in the Central Atlantic for at least the next ten days. Nadine is already in ninth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 202: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Faith, 1966: 15.5 named storm days
9) Nadine, 2012: 15.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 10:15 am EDT Wednesday, September 26, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The rest of the Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic through October 3. Most of the models predict that an extratropical storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, off the coast of Texas. Phase Space Diagrams from Florida State University show that this low is expected to remain non-tropical as it moves east-northeast across the Gulf, potentially coming ashore over the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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176. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
23:30 PM IST September 27 2012
=====================================

The low pressure area over west central Bay of Bengal and neighborhood now lies as a well marked low pressure..
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Quoting wxmod:
Here's a satellite photo of Washington today. MODIS

Sure looks like cirrus clouds at an altitude of nearly 35,000 ft. You think otherwise?
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174. wxmod
I sure wish that storm front would split and send some rain to dry, parched California. Maybe if I wish hard enough, it will happen.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Those are contrails...from airplanes.
wx13..I wasn't trying to be rude... But airplanes have propellers, jets have , "jet engines". The exhaust at heights of 35,000 ft freeze leaving a contrail... Actually, and also, When my ex was stationed at Eielson AFB AK , many, many years ago I was with him. He was a weather observer... That is where I got my interest. Anyway... When the "jets" took off from the base in extreme cold temperatures (minus 50 and 60) they would leave a contrail over the whole base including the tarmac and the runway which they sometimes had to close until the contrail drifted off... Ice fog is a real problem in the extreme temperature that most people don't experience in the lower 48.
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172. wxmod
Here's a satellite photo of Washington today. MODIS

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Those are contrails...from airplanes.
jets
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Quoting wxmod:
These ten mile wide, hundreds of miles long smog lines are over the Pacific off WA. MODIS today


Those are contrails...from jets.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
Nadine is 15 days old.



DSL guy finally got that mess figured out.


Now I can get on Wunderground again.

Yeah.
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Quoting wxmod:
These ten mile wide, hundreds of miles long smog lines are over the Pacific off WA. MODIS today

wxmod.....Are you saying they are something other than condensation trails? (contrails)
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167. wxmod
These ten mile wide, hundreds of miles long smog lines are over the Pacific off WA. MODIS today

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Quoting TropicTraveler:


I was wondering what you are talking about but I see a bunch of missing posts. One of the things I like about this blog is that in spite of spirited debate, people don't descend to profanity and bad language. And we do have a lot of young people on here, though it could be they could teach us some new words.
Tropic.......I think the "bad guy" deleted his posts......Same thing happened this morning
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
You need to delete your post..............This is a family site with many young people here......... Not what this site is about.......


I was wondering what you are talking about but I see a bunch of missing posts. One of the things I like about this blog is that in spite of spirited debate, people don't descend to profanity and bad language. And we do have a lot of young people on here, though it could be they could teach us some new words.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26118
Quoting Dakster:
Mars rover just found really good evidence that water once flowed on Mars. (I will say that liquid of some sort flowed -- not quite sure if it was indeed H2O.)

Wouldn't it be something if they found evidence that beings once lived on Mars, destroyed their planet and moved to 'Earth' to avoid extinction...

Link: Link

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=201 2-305



Maybe they can find my birth certificate.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26118
Looks like the same spammer is back that we had this morning
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You need to delete your post..............This is a family site with many young people here......... Not what this site is about.......
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Wow, look at all that T'storm action on the African coast.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
That would put your eye out

yup.
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Quoting ANOTHERBUSTLIKEISAID:
why are people saying that the season is almosy over when it was long over for central florida back in july
Actually October is ,and has not been a very good month regarding hurricanes in Florida.... Wilma comes to mind.
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

...when cat 8 Nadine covers the U.S. with 900 mile per hour winds and a 19000 foot surge :)
That would put your eye out
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We die on December 21, 2012.

...when cat 8 Nadine covers the U.S. with 900 mile per hour winds and a 19000 foot surge :)
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This was recently put up on my local NWS homepage. It contains a detailed overview of the Northeast severe weather outbreak on June 1, 2011. There's a massive amount of information in here, much of which most of us can't understand, but even a quick skim through it proved very informative for me. There's some cool images in it as well.
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Mars rover just found really good evidence that water once flowed on Mars. (I will say that liquid of some sort flowed -- not quite sure if it was indeed H2O.)

Wouldn't it be something if they found evidence that beings once lived on Mars, destroyed their planet and moved to 'Earth' to avoid extinction...

Link: Link

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=201 2-305

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Spaceflight Now | Breaking News | Report urges NOAA to narrow focus of JPSS satellite
....
The review board found NOAA's GOES-R geostationary satellite program in better shape than JPSS [Joint Polar Satellite System], but the report noted pressing budget concerns and said there was only a 48 percent chance the GOES-R spacecraft would meet its scheduled launch date in late 2015.

The report's sharpest criticisms were aimed at NOAA's management practices and the JPSS program, which targets launch of the agency's next polar-orbiting weather satellite by early 2017.

Based on the expected five-year lifetime of Suomi NPP, which launched in October 2011, the independent review team projected there would likely be a gap of at least 18 months between the end of NPP's mission and when JPSS 1 becomes operational.
....
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<
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Quoting Patrap:
Today's wunderground Daily Double Double question.

What instrument does Dr. Jeff Masters play?

Actually the Sling Psychrometer of the early 70's made a beautiful whirling sound if spun fast enough
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Quoting Grothar:


He must have had a big "heart" if he was an auricle.


Friends, Romans and Citizens, lend me your auricle.
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Quoting Patrap:
I asked the ancient Chinese auricle, the I-Ching that same question and the answer bedazzled me fer sho'


He must have had a big "heart" if he was an auricle.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26118
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We die on December 21, 2012.
No Christmas presents this year?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We die on December 21, 2012.


wow.. you gave me an extra 9 days!!! woot!!!!
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140. auburn (Mod)
Quoting Neapolitan:
He beats the drum for climate science, plays denialists like a violin (especially those who'd rather fiddle while Rome burns), he's clear as a bell on tropical meteorology, and he hits all the right notes on weather in general--yet he never toots his own horn. Oh, and he also plays a mean trombone.

(I guess your question struck a chord with me. Music to my ears, you might say...)

I'll stop now. Better change my tune, I suppose...


Yea stop before you get the Band...hehehee
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50614
Quoting Patrap:
Today's wunderground Daily Double Double question.

What instrument does Dr. Jeff Masters play?

He beats the drum for climate science, plays denialists like a violin (especially those who'd rather fiddle while Rome burns), he's clear as a bell on tropical meteorology, and he hits all the right notes on weather in general--yet he never toots his own horn. Oh, and he also plays a mean trombone.

(I guess your question struck a chord with me. Music to my ears, you might say...)

I'll stop now. Better change my tune, I suppose...
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Winter solstice?.Yeah and I'll be waiting on candy man to pay me a visit sometime next week.Ha ha :D.
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137. auburn (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
While working on his Ph.D., he co-founded The Weather Underground, Inc. in 1995. He wrote much of the software that ingests and formats the raw NWS data used on the website, and created most of the imagery on the tropical page. Jeff currently serves as Director of Meteorology and on the Board of Directors for the company.

Jeff lives in the Ann Arbor, Michigan area with his wife and daughter. He and his wife are active in managing a 32-acre natural area owned by their neighborhood association. They spend a lot of time killing invasive plants such as garlic mustard, glossy buckthorn, and Asian bittersweet, and planting native species to take their places. Jeff enjoys hiking, cross country skiing, vegetarian cooking, and meditation. His favorite places are Havasu Canyon in the Grand Canyon and the Boiling River in Yellowstone National Park. His favorite book is Autobiography of a Yogi, and his favorite movie is Monty Python and the Holy Grail. He enjoys listening to Tangerine Dream, Loreena McKennitt, Anugama, and Beethoven. He occasionally picks up his While working on his Ph.D., he co-founded The Weather Underground, Inc. in 1995. He wrote much of the software that ingests and formats the raw NWS data used on the website, and created most of the imagery on the tropical page. Jeff currently serves as Director of Meteorology and on the Board of Directors for the company.

Jeff lives in the Ann Arbor, Michigan area with his wife and daughter. He and his wife are active in managing a 32-acre natural area owned by their neighborhood association. They spend a lot of time killing invasive plants such as garlic mustard, glossy buckthorn, and Asian bittersweet, and planting native species to take their places. Jeff enjoys hiking, cross country skiing, vegetarian cooking, and meditation. His favorite places are Havasu Canyon in the Grand Canyon and the Boiling River in Yellowstone National Park. His favorite book is Autobiography of a Yogi, and his favorite movie is Monty Python and the Holy Grail. He enjoys listening to Tangerine Dream, Loreena McKennitt, Anugama, and Beethoven. He occasionally picks up his trombone, but hasn't played much since freshman year in college, when he played with the University of Michigan Marching Band.

You can email Jeff at jmasters@wunderground.com., but hasn't played much since freshman year in college, when he played with the University of Michigan Marching Band.


Nice read Pat.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50614
Quoting indianrivguy:


I've taken a lot of pictures of harvest moons over the years, none were even close to that beauty Pat posted.


Yeah, but I still like to give it a shot...or two :)
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Quoting indianrivguy:


I though we all die on the 12th... have I got my Mayan death days confused again?

We die on December 21, 2012.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Aye nope, the solstice is on December 21st.


I though we all die on the 12th... have I got my Mayan death days confused again?
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When Nadine get's lonely she visits the Azores again for company Lolol.
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Hmm... that does look like it produced a funnel at least for a few minutes there...

EDIT: removed radar loops since storm had passed and I was getting sick of waiting for them to load/display. :)
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Quoting indianrivguy:


won't we all die a couple weeks before that?

Howdy Pat, good to see ya.


Aye nope, the solstice is on December 21st.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
While working on his Ph.D., he co-founded The Weather Underground, Inc. in 1995. He wrote much of the software that ingests and formats the raw NWS data used on the website, and created most of the imagery on the tropical page. Jeff currently serves as Director of Meteorology and on the Board of Directors for the company.

Jeff lives in the Ann Arbor, Michigan area with his wife and daughter. He and his wife are active in managing a 32-acre natural area owned by their neighborhood association. They spend a lot of time killing invasive plants such as garlic mustard, glossy buckthorn, and Asian bittersweet, and planting native species to take their places. Jeff enjoys hiking, cross country skiing, vegetarian cooking, and meditation. His favorite places are Havasu Canyon in the Grand Canyon and the Boiling River in Yellowstone National Park. His favorite book is Autobiography of a Yogi, and his favorite movie is Monty Python and the Holy Grail. He enjoys listening to Tangerine Dream, Loreena McKennitt, Anugama, and Beethoven. He occasionally picks up his While working on his Ph.D., he co-founded The Weather Underground, Inc. in 1995. He wrote much of the software that ingests and formats the raw NWS data used on the website, and created most of the imagery on the tropical page. Jeff currently serves as Director of Meteorology and on the Board of Directors for the company.

Jeff lives in the Ann Arbor, Michigan area with his wife and daughter. He and his wife are active in managing a 32-acre natural area owned by their neighborhood association. They spend a lot of time killing invasive plants such as garlic mustard, glossy buckthorn, and Asian bittersweet, and planting native species to take their places. Jeff enjoys hiking, cross country skiing, vegetarian cooking, and meditation. His favorite places are Havasu Canyon in the Grand Canyon and the Boiling River in Yellowstone National Park. His favorite book is Autobiography of a Yogi, and his favorite movie is Monty Python and the Holy Grail. He enjoys listening to Tangerine Dream, Loreena McKennitt, Anugama, and Beethoven. He occasionally picks up his trombone, but hasn't played much since freshman year in college, when he played with the University of Michigan Marching Band.

You can email Jeff at jmasters@wunderground.com., but hasn't played much since freshman year in college, when he played with the University of Michigan Marching Band.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
I asked the ancient Chinese auricle, the I-Ching that same question and the answer bedazzled me fer sho'
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
Wonder why he'd be laughing
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Quoting RitaEvac:


I remember when you typed that there were 284 days left and 184 days left. We're making progress.


Somewhere a Mayan stone carver is giggling big time I do believe.
]
]
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
126. auburn (Mod)
Quoting sar2401:

I'm over in Prattville. No rain here since September 17, although we are still ahead of normal for September. Actually had a couple nights in the last week where I turned on my little electric heater to take the chill off in the morning. Very nice compared to te long, hot summer we've had. If this front to the north ever gets moving, we should cool off again Tuesday or Wednesday. Might also get a surface low forming off the tail end of the front over LA once the front moves into the Gulf, which might be interesting.


Prattville...howdy neighbor!!!,I am in Beauregard (Opelika/Auburn area)my little hill is in the dark red area on the drought map,storms seem to die out just before they get to me here.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50614

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.