Jelawat brushing Taiwan; Nadine enters its 15th day of life

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on September 27, 2012

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Impressive Super Typhoon Jelawat remains just below Category 5 strength, as it heads north-northwest a few hundred miles east-southeast of Taiwan. The outer rain bands of the mighty typhoon are bringing heavy rains to the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island, and will spread over eastern Taiwan later today, as seen on Taiwan radar. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters do not extend to as great depth as they did when Jelawat was east of the Philippines, though. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 43 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move north-northwest and then north, with the center passing about 150 miles to the east of Taiwan on Friday. Jelawat will likely pass very close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm on Sunday. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Friday morning, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Jelawat taken at 1:03 am EDT Thursday, September 27, 2012. At the time, Jelawat had top winds of 155 mph, and an unusually large 43-mile diameter eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. Super Typhoon Jelawat's rain bands approaching Taiwan at 22:20 local time on September 27, 2012. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.

Nadine enters its 15th day of life
The Energizer-bunny storm of 2012, Tropical Storm Nadine, has entered its 15th day of life as a tropical cyclone. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Tuesday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. That model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure by Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die late next week. However, the 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will miss the trough, and meander in the Central Atlantic for at least the next ten days. Nadine is already in ninth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 202: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Faith, 1966: 15.5 named storm days
9) Nadine, 2012: 15.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 10:15 am EDT Wednesday, September 26, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The rest of the Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic through October 3. Most of the models predict that an extratropical storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, off the coast of Texas. Phase Space Diagrams from Florida State University show that this low is expected to remain non-tropical as it moves east-northeast across the Gulf, potentially coming ashore over the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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226. washingtonian115
12:36 AM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That didn't quite work, lol.
It was suppose to be the forever alone face.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17829
225. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:35 AM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


do you have the map of that?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
224. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:34 AM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nadine


That didn't quite work, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
223. uncwhurricane85
12:26 AM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting SouthCentralTx:
So the GFS shows around 10 inches of rain over my area the next 5 days, this will be a enjoyable few days if this turns out. Ready to see the lakes fill up.


do you have the map of that?
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
222. washingtonian115
12:26 AM GMT on September 28, 2012
.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17829
221. Neapolitan
12:25 AM GMT on September 28, 2012
Quoting LesBonsTemps:


People intent on making involved scientific arguments to argue their case in certain subjects (e.g., global warming) might want to refrain from inventing extraordinary probabilities (a quintillion, or 10^18) to discuss other subjects, in order to protect their credibility.
I've found that I don't really need to argue any "case" where climate change is involved; nature seems to be doing a great job all by itself, don't you think? ;-)

But having said that, there's nothing wrong with anybody--including you and me--from stating our opinion on any subject discussed here, so long as we state that it is indeed only an opinion (notice that my comment did just that, beginning as it did with with, "I'd say the chances are about..."). Stick around awhile; you'll see that's how things work around these parts...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
220. washingtonian115
12:10 AM GMT on September 28, 2012
Yeah and on 12/22/12 I will wave my fist proudly in the air and yell SUCCESS and go about my Christmas shopping.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17829
219. JrWeathermanFL
12:07 AM GMT on September 28, 2012
Looks like the NHC is having Nadine stall by the Azores in 4 days or so. Hopefully it wont turn east and loop again. O.o
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2532
218. indianrivguy
12:06 AM GMT on September 28, 2012
B-29 contrails

Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2639
217. JLPR2
11:54 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
Impressive looking mess, I wish it would reach the NE Caribbean with some nice clouds, wouldn't mind some stormy and slightly cooler days. :\

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
216. washingtonian115
11:54 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

I'm getting tired of forecasting her just to have her do the unexpected.
My local newspaper dubbed her "Never dye Nadine".She's determined!!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17829
215. SouthCentralTx
11:51 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
So the GFS shows around 10 inches of rain over my area the next 5 days, this will be a enjoyable few days if this turns out. Ready to see the lakes fill up.
Member Since: March 19, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 273
214. LesBonsTemps
11:49 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'd say the chances are about a million trillion to one that Mars ever held intelligent life. But an increasing number of scientists have theorized that life may have first developed in a more habitable somewhere else eons ago--perhaps Mars?--then involuntarily migrated to Earth via panspermia. Think about that: we might all be Martians at the genetic level. (Which would explain my ex brother-in-law.)


People intent on making involved scientific arguments to argue their case in certain subjects (e.g., global warming) might want to refrain from inventing extraordinary probabilities (a quintillion, or 10^18) to discuss other subjects, in order to protect their credibility.
Member Since: August 4, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
213. wxchaser97
11:48 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Even their getting bored of her.Lol.

I'm getting tired of forecasting her just to have her do the unexpected.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
212. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:46 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We die on December 21, 2012.


HERE 13

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
211. washingtonian115
11:45 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
Quoting Thing342:
8pm TWO:

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS STILL ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 730 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE AZORES.

I kind of LOL'd.
Even their getting bored of her.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17829
210. Tropicsweatherpr
11:43 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
Down to 50% for 94E.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF THE COAST OF WESTERN
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STILL FORM BEFORE THE
LOW REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
E.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14908
209. wxmod
11:43 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
Texas grungy cirrus clouds today. And some jets flying around. MODIS


Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1771
208. Thing342
11:40 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
8pm TWO:

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS STILL ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 730 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE AZORES.

I kind of LOL'd.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 441
207. washingtonian115
11:38 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
Quoting Doppler22:

Haha i was gonna see here we go again Wash
Well for the last two days we have had a humid air mass.The air mass around here is still humid.So those storms are going to be feeding off of that when they come in this direction.I'll be a waiting my impending doom in the mean time :).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17829
206. Neapolitan
11:37 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
Quoting Jedkins01:


It is funny how people desperately want to believe things like that.

It's a great science experiment to send stuff to mars. But there is no evidence there were ever beings on mars, just as there is no evidence that doing dances around fires with masks on your faces wards away evil spirits...
I'd say the chances are about a million trillion to one that Mars ever held intelligent life. But an increasing number of scientists have theorized that life may have first developed in a more habitable somewhere else eons ago--perhaps Mars?--then involuntarily migrated to Earth via panspermia. Think about that: we might all be Martians at the genetic level. (Which would explain my ex brother-in-law.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
205. Doppler22
11:35 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nadine trying to reDEEM herself.Well isn't this just lovely(sarcastic tone) a pack of nasty storms are off to my west.I've been over thunderstorms since June...But this year won't quite...

Haha i was gonna see here we go again Wash
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3882
204. washingtonian115
11:27 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
Now I went back a few pages and it showed a possible cape verde storm sometime the second week of October.Oh c'mon now.I'll believe it when I see it.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17829
203. wxchaser97
11:20 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Or, it should, anyways.

With this season there is no will, only should.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
202. washingtonian115
11:19 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
Nadine trying to reDEEM herself.Well isn't this just lovely(sarcastic tone) a pack of nasty storms are off to my west.I've been over thunderstorms since June...But this year won't quite...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17829
201. CybrTeddy
11:18 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
I can see tweedledum is back.

Funny how they always run off in late-August when school starts back up ;).
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24578
200. auburn (Mod)
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
auburn.....If Bo had not been hurt he would have been the greatest athlete ever.... My opinion


He is still Famous here..
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50880
199. wxmod
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
wx13..I wasn't trying to be rude... But airplanes have propellers, jets have , "jet engines". The exhaust at heights of 35,000 ft freeze leaving a contrail... Actually, and also, When my ex was stationed at Eielson AFB AK , many, many years ago I was with him. He was a weather observer... That is where I got my interest. Anyway... When the "jets" took off from the base in extreme cold temperatures (minus 50 and 60) they would leave a contrail over the whole base including the tarmac and the runway which they sometimes had to close until the contrail drifted off... Ice fog is a real problem in the extreme temperature that most people don't experience in the lower 48.


That's very interesting. In a dozen years of scouring satellite photos of contrails, I have never seen even one in Alaska. Not even one!!!
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1771
Trolls for today.Let's see ANOTHERBUSTLIKEISAID should have been an obvious name of a troll...Why do you all fall for it every time?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17829
After more than a year of drought here in Andalucia, Spain we now have a spin off from Nadine causing all sorts of heavy rainfall events over the area.
About 4 inches has fallen allready today in parts of the Cadiz province and up to 8 inches more is forcast in some local areas over the next 2 days.
Its hammering down enough to effect visability and distort images here in the Seville area tonight.
Well welcome to the mud season tomorrow. Some of our dams were down to 20% capacity last week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting auburn:


That troll can edit his post but cant remove them that I know of..I bet admin got them.
auburn.....If Bo had not been hurt he would have been the greatest athlete ever.... My opinion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That certainly has been the case with Jelawat. I believe this is it's third one. What's been impressive is how it hasn't weakened at all during it's previous two, likely due to the fact that it completed them very quickly. This one is different though, conditions are no longer as favorable and it will likely take quite a hit over the next 12 hours.

Or, it should, anyways.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
Quoting Jedkins01:



I've noticed that once some hurricanes go through their first eye wall replacement cycle, they seem to repeatedly go through additional ones with little time in between of not being in one.

That certainly has been the case with Jelawat. I believe this is it's third one. What's been impressive is how it hasn't weakened at all during it's previous two, likely due to the fact that it completed them very quickly. This one is different though, conditions are no longer as favorable and it will likely take quite a hit over the next 12 hours.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Ouch. That's a lot of smoke. :(

If you put up the zoom to 400% 0n that photo that wxmod posted at 172, it sure looks like some sort of mess is going on on the ground in more than one place.
I would say its not cloud or natural atmospheric conditions but some sort of pollution, probably fire based.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Miriam has literally bit the dust and is rapidly weakening. Nadine is actually looking like a strong TS again and maybe could become a hurricane.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting Grothar:


Maybe they can find my birth certificate.


Etched in stone no doubt.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmod:


Those are smoke plumes of huge fires. There are absolutely no cirrus in the photo of Washington.
Check it out on inciweb.


Ouch. That's a lot of smoke. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Jelawat is going through another EWRC. This one is very fortunately timed as it will not have time to recover and will not be as strong as forecast as it goes over Okinawa.



The current eye has become ragged and cloud filled:




I've noticed that once some hurricanes go through their first eye wall replacement cycle, they seem to repeatedly go through additional ones with little time in between of not being in one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
187. auburn (Mod)
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Tropic.......I think the "bad guy" deleted his posts......Same thing happened this morning


That troll can edit his post but cant remove them that I know of..I bet admin got them.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50880
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
wxmod.....Are you saying they are something other than condensation trails? (contrails)
Well he did say "smog".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
Mars rover just found really good evidence that water once flowed on Mars. (I will say that liquid of some sort flowed -- not quite sure if it was indeed H2O.)

Wouldn't it be something if they found evidence that beings once lived on Mars, destroyed their planet and moved to 'Earth' to avoid extinction...

Link: Link

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=201 2-305



It is funny how people desperately want to believe things like that.

It's a great science experiment to send stuff to mars. But there is no evidence there were ever beings on mars, just as there is no evidence that doing dances around fires with masks on your faces wards away evil spirits...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jelawat is going through another EWRC. This one is very fortunately timed as it will not have time to recover and will not be as strong as forecast as it goes over Okinawa.



The current eye has become ragged and cloud filled:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

District of Columbia
parts of Maryland
northern Virginia
eastern West Virginia Panhandle
coastal waters

Effective this Thursday night from 635 PM until midnight EDT.

Hail to 1.5 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70
mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles either side of a line from 25 miles south southeast
of Baltimore Maryland to 65 miles west southwest of Washington
district of colum. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou4).
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3882
New watch could be issued for part of the Mid Atlantic:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2000
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA INTO MD INCLUDING PARTS OF THE DC AND
BALTIMORE METRO AREAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 272216Z - 272245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SHORTLY ACROSS NRN
VA INTO MD INCLUDING PARTS OF THE WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO
AREAS.

DISCUSSION...AT 22Z...MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM FAR NRN VA EWD TO INVOF WASHINGTON DC. THE AIR MASS
IN THIS REGION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
30-35 KT WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER NRN VA THUS FAR.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS...SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...AS THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN PA
ADVANCES EWD AIDING IN SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.

Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3882
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Interesting based on this chart it looks like the front does not make it all the way down to the peninsula of FL.



Yeah well, if you didn't know any better and all you did was follow HPC maps all summer long, you'd be convinced Florida has hardly gotten any rain LOL. They usually forecast much less than we get.

However though, rainfall has been pretty scarce around Tampa Bay for September, the last few projected rainy patterns didn't amount to much, and now forecasters are sort of backing off on the wet pattern they were talking about the last few days. It seems like our very rainy streak may be over, or has winded down anyway.
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180. wxmod
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Sure looks like cirrus clouds at an altitude of nearly 35,000 ft. You think otherwise?


Those are smoke plumes of huge fires. There are absolutely no cirrus in the photo of Washington.
Check it out on inciweb.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1771
179. VR46L
GFS 18Z

120 hrs looks like a bit of a rainmaker in the Northern Gulf Coast and Nadine ...So bored of her


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178. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


small low pressure area near 13N 86E in the Bay Of Bengal
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For once, Nadine does not look like complete crap.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 SEP 2012 Time : 214500 UTC
Lat : 28:32:27 N Lon : 32:49:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 994.5mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.6 3.6

Center Temp : -52.2C Cloud Region Temp : -59.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 92km
- Environmental MSLP : 1016mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 48.9 degrees

************************************************* ***

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
176. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
23:30 PM IST September 27 2012
=====================================

The low pressure area over west central Bay of Bengal and neighborhood now lies as a well marked low pressure..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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