Jelawat brushing Taiwan; Nadine enters its 15th day of life

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on September 27, 2012

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Impressive Super Typhoon Jelawat remains just below Category 5 strength, as it heads north-northwest a few hundred miles east-southeast of Taiwan. The outer rain bands of the mighty typhoon are bringing heavy rains to the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island, and will spread over eastern Taiwan later today, as seen on Taiwan radar. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters do not extend to as great depth as they did when Jelawat was east of the Philippines, though. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 43 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move north-northwest and then north, with the center passing about 150 miles to the east of Taiwan on Friday. Jelawat will likely pass very close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm on Sunday. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Friday morning, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Jelawat taken at 1:03 am EDT Thursday, September 27, 2012. At the time, Jelawat had top winds of 155 mph, and an unusually large 43-mile diameter eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. Super Typhoon Jelawat's rain bands approaching Taiwan at 22:20 local time on September 27, 2012. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.

Nadine enters its 15th day of life
The Energizer-bunny storm of 2012, Tropical Storm Nadine, has entered its 15th day of life as a tropical cyclone. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Tuesday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. That model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure by Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die late next week. However, the 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will miss the trough, and meander in the Central Atlantic for at least the next ten days. Nadine is already in ninth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 202: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Faith, 1966: 15.5 named storm days
9) Nadine, 2012: 15.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 10:15 am EDT Wednesday, September 26, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The rest of the Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic through October 3. Most of the models predict that an extratropical storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, off the coast of Texas. Phase Space Diagrams from Florida State University show that this low is expected to remain non-tropical as it moves east-northeast across the Gulf, potentially coming ashore over the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not sure if this site has been mentioned yet, but NOAA is going to be using public opinion to help classify tropical cyclones from the past now.

Link


You know there's going to be someone who goes on here during DMAX on a cyclone and give it a Category 3+ rating and then give it a weak TS rating by 5pm ;)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
Well, I see that Grothar has found a blob....

Rather far away at the moment, but I am hoping that it makes it to the southern Caribbean. Have my doubts though.....
We could use some rain.

Like most of the other Islands, August was far below average, and September so far too.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not sure if this site has been mentioned yet, but NOAA is going to be using public opinion to help classify tropical cyclones from the past now.

Link

It is hard to get off that site now, it was posted earlier.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not sure if this site has been mentioned yet, but NOAA is going to be using public opinion to help classify tropical cyclones from the past now.

Link


I think Levi posted it earlier. I'm pretty much addicted to it now, haha.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not sure if this site has been mentioned yet, but NOAA is going to be using public opinion to help classify tropical cyclones from the past now.

Link
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'd say the chances are about a million trillion to one that Mars ever held intelligent life.
Really. I'm in for $1 on that one easily. I like the return of 1 quintrillion, and it's easily worth the chance that you could wake up one morning to a world economy changing event in your favor(better than the old bank error) because of something that Rover unmarsed. Stick to climate change and other stuff but leave the odds to me:)....on this one you get even action at odds that I'd set at 50,000/1 for sporting purposes.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Impressive looking mess, I wish it would reach the NE Caribbean with some nice clouds, wouldn't mind some stormy and slightly cooler days. :\



Oh my dear friend, I'M SO AGREE WITH YOU! Let's pray for it come here in the NE Caribbean :-)))))))))))
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Quoting 12george1:
There were 70 advisories for Bertha and there have been 61 advisories for Nadine, so far.


Yea, Bertha was another one that just wouldn't die.
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Quoting Grothar:


Blob.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi nigel. It has been a September with below normal rainfall in PR.But at least this week we have recieved a bit.

Hey tropics! Same here...though it has been pretty wet in central Jamaica.
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Quoting nigel20:
Total ACE (Atlantic): 89.5


Hi nigel. It has been a September with below normal rainfall in PR.(-3.86 inches below normal) But at least this week we have recieved a bit.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
261. auburn (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:


They are Huge aubie,.. : )


I bet..they get big fast!
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50880
I should also note that Kyle 2002 had 89 advisories
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Total ACE (Atlantic): 89.5
Nadine: 16.0

Source: wiki
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Watching contrails June 19, 1944. Japanese raid.

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Quoting Grothar:


Nice wave.
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There were 70 advisories for Bertha and there have been 61 advisories for Nadine, so far.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Tropical Storm Nadine:

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Eight years ago, Jeanne paid central Florida a visit. She overstayed her welcome. She just kept blowing and blowing and blowing...

By the time she left, I was so shell-shocked by Charlie, Frances and Jeanne, that whenever I looked out the window and saw the leaves on the trees moving the least little bit, I had to go check the NHC website to see if another one was headed for us.

~shivers~



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Quoting auburn:


Congrats!!!!


They are Huge aubie,.. : )
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Quoting Civicane49:


Doing good. Been a little busy. You?

I've been pretty busy as well, but i'm good.
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250. auburn (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
The Pup's of Issac


Congrats!!!!
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 547 Comments: 50880
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Civicane! How are you doing?


Doing good. Been a little busy. You?
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Quoting Civicane49:


Hey Nigel.

Hey Civicane! How are you doing?
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The Pup's of Issac
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Quoting nigel20:

Very impressive.


Hey Nigel.
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Jelawat:

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Quoting nigel20:

Very impressive.


Def the hairiest place on the Globe currently.

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Winds are up to 30 knots, pressure is down to 1006 millibars.

EP, 94, 2012092800, , BEST, 0, 191N, 1080W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
Quoting Patrap:
Jelawat

MTSAT-1R Imagery - 60 Minutes

xx32Z

Imagery available about 25 minutes later.
Rainbow Long Loop



Very impressive.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

It would but we don't want to lose ya Wash, we can use our imagination to picture it though.
Yeah but if you haven't seen the picture don't look.Because you'll be scared!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17831
Okinawa Weather at a Glance/wunderground page

Tomorrow
82 | 72 °F
T-storms
100% chance of precipitation
Typhoon Jelawat
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Good evening Nigel, how is the weather?

We had quite a bit of rain today, but we are still having below normal rainfall..
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Jelawat

MTSAT-1R Imagery - 60 Minutes

xx32Z

Imagery available about 25 minutes later.
Rainbow Long Loop


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Quoting nigel20:

hey TA! Life is pretty good in Jamaica at this time.
how have you been??

Ehhh....

Lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
Goodbye Miriam.

EP, 13, 2012092800, , BEST, 0, 220N, 1166W, 30, 999, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 140, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MIRIAM, M,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
228. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:39 AM GMT on September 28, 2012 0
Quoting washingtonian115:
It was suppose to be the forever alone face.
Yeah...I wouldn't recommend posting that, lol. You know how admins are now.


Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all!
Whats up Nigel! How's life in Jamaica?



ya i know i took it down after 45 time limit
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Atlantis Launch as seen from the High Flying NASA WB-57



9 Sept 2006






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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah...I wouldn't recommend posting that, lol. You know how admins are now.


Whats up Nigel! How's life in Jamaica?

hey TA! Life is pretty good in Jamaica at this time.
how have you been??
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ATCF says...Nadine is still 55 knots.

AL, 14, 2012092800, , BEST, 0, 286N, 331W, 55, 993, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 50, 1014, 180, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ah but it would have been the perfect for Nadine.

It would but we don't want to lose ya Wash, we can use our imagination to picture it though.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah...I wouldn't recommend posting that, lol. You know how admins are now.


Hey Nigel! How's life in Jamaica?
Ah but it would have been the perfect for Nadine.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17831
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all!

Good evening Nigel, how is the weather?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting washingtonian115:
It was suppose to be the forever alone face.

Yeah...I wouldn't recommend posting that, lol. You know how admins are now.

Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all!

Whats up Nigel! How's life in Jamaica?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
Good evening all!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That didn't quite work, lol.
It was suppose to be the forever alone face.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17831

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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