Jelawat brushing Taiwan; Nadine enters its 15th day of life

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on September 27, 2012

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Impressive Super Typhoon Jelawat remains just below Category 5 strength, as it heads north-northwest a few hundred miles east-southeast of Taiwan. The outer rain bands of the mighty typhoon are bringing heavy rains to the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island, and will spread over eastern Taiwan later today, as seen on Taiwan radar. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters do not extend to as great depth as they did when Jelawat was east of the Philippines, though. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 43 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move north-northwest and then north, with the center passing about 150 miles to the east of Taiwan on Friday. Jelawat will likely pass very close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm on Sunday. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Friday morning, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Jelawat taken at 1:03 am EDT Thursday, September 27, 2012. At the time, Jelawat had top winds of 155 mph, and an unusually large 43-mile diameter eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. Super Typhoon Jelawat's rain bands approaching Taiwan at 22:20 local time on September 27, 2012. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.

Nadine enters its 15th day of life
The Energizer-bunny storm of 2012, Tropical Storm Nadine, has entered its 15th day of life as a tropical cyclone. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Tuesday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. That model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure by Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die late next week. However, the 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will miss the trough, and meander in the Central Atlantic for at least the next ten days. Nadine is already in ninth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 202: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Faith, 1966: 15.5 named storm days
9) Nadine, 2012: 15.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 10:15 am EDT Wednesday, September 26, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The rest of the Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic through October 3. Most of the models predict that an extratropical storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, off the coast of Texas. Phase Space Diagrams from Florida State University show that this low is expected to remain non-tropical as it moves east-northeast across the Gulf, potentially coming ashore over the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Nadine is waiting for the next storm to form in the Atlantic then that's when she'll die..in another two weeks...Lol.
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Quoting thunderfrance:
Nadine becomes a hurricane again - 65 knots



Nadine might very well be stronger than 65kts.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
And Nadine is, once again, a hurricane, 280 or so hours since she was last one (and almost exactly one week after turning extratropical):

AL, 14, 2012092812, , BEST, 0, 293N, 344W, 65, 993, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 180, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,

Speaking of: at this morning's 5AM EDT TWO, Nadine moved ahead of Michael to claim first place in the 2012 ACE race.

As of this mornings 11AM EDT TWO, it will have been more than 400 hours--402, to be precise--since Nadine was first named.


The point made in a recent NHC FX was that Nadine's lengthy lifespan can be attributed to a persistent block. As is the case over much of the Northern Hemisphere. Along the west coast, a ridge has more or less been in place for 8 weeks along 130W and shows no signs of breaking down. Pac Nw rainfall is currently in the mid single percentile for the month of September and is approaching 100 year records in Washington and southern BC. So, given the teleconnection, Nadine may be around for a week or two yet.
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Quoting fireflymom:
Looks more like Van Gough. Very good use of color on that one. Waiting for the Rain to commence here in the Houston area.



That's who I meant (Starry Night)..........Thanks.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
12.5N/80.5W looks interesting this morning.




Heavy rain & thunderstorms here just now Storm... looks like a wet Friday for us
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Looks more like Van Gough. Very good use of color on that one. Waiting for the Rain to commence here in the Houston area.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. That "compensated" big-picture loop from NOAA because of the Satt issue looks like a Monet painting..............Blurry blobs and swirls everywhere.

Link

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Nadine becomes a hurricane again - 65 knots

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Nadine looks good.Seems it once to make a run at cat 2 status.
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Quoting lobdelse81:

You are biased towards getting winter to set itself in the Northern Hemisphere based on your anti-B/A ridge comments and pro-snow/noreaster/eastern troughiness comments that you have been posting the last several weeks it seems, lol :)


LOL now that's a mouth full!
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Quoting ncstorm:
through 120 hours-6z GFS


Good morning NC and all. Looks to be interesting for the south this weekend. We're under a flash flood watch in central TX until tomorrow evening with 2-4 inches and up to 8 inches isolated expected. We'll be gearing up for the usual low water crossing rescues that are bound to happen with this one.
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Looking at the wind shear map it seems like has soon has we get the N storm out of the way hurricane season may be coming too a end
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Good Morning. That "compensated" big-picture loop from NOAA because of the Satt issue looks like a Monet painting..............Blurry blobs and swirls everywhere.

Link
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Nadine is once again a Hurricane. This thing is the energizer bunny, just keeps on going, and going, and going, and going.


Nadine doesn't look half bad at all.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 989.5mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.2 5.3
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12.5N/80.5W looks interesting this morning.
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Quoting weatherbro:


The GFS is unrealistically amplifying that ridge!

You are biased towards getting winter to set itself in the Northern Hemisphere based on your anti-B/A ridge comments and pro-snow/noreaster/eastern troughiness comments that you have been posting the last several weeks it seems, lol :)
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
They never mastered the art of blending in like a chamelion.
Why do you think they died off?
aDuh!
Good morning all. In reading back so I can catch up this morning, I think I have the answer. As a child I was told NOT to put a chameleon on anything red because they would try to turn that color and it would kill them. Maybe that is what happened to the little green men on Mars :) Staying on topic, the weather here in the Keys this morning was 82 degrees with 90% humidity. I must be part orchid. I didn't mind the humidity.
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Quoting islander101010:
not so sure fury. mdr has stepped it up past three days

The water is boiling. If a T-wave comes off in the right atmospheric conditions, we could have another system to track.
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NWS huntsville and Birmingham are monitoring the potential for a longterm severe weather threat possibly associated with the gulf low...

CAPE wont be too great unless the LLJ from the low and the MLJ in the trough line up to shear the clouds out a bit. It is too long term to tell anyway. I'm hoping some of it actually gets into GA if it forms.
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through 120 hours-6z GFS
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And Nadine is, once again, a hurricane, 280 or so hours since she was last one (and almost exactly one week after turning extratropical):

AL, 14, 2012092812, , BEST, 0, 293N, 344W, 65, 993, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 180, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,

Speaking of: at this morning's 5AM EDT TWO, Nadine moved ahead of Michael to claim first place in the 2012 ACE race.

As of this mornings 11AM EDT TWO, it will have been more than 400 hours--402, to be precise--since Nadine was first named.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13275
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
Anyone know when the lates a CV storm formed?

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Going directly from an 80% "poorly defined area of low pressure" to a TS, the EPac now has Norman, at least according to the ATCF:

EP, 14, 2012092812, , BEST, 0, 222N, 1087W, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 0, 30, 1006, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORMAN, M,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13275
not so sure fury. mdr has stepped it up past three days
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I am surprised no one posted this as possibly we will have a new epac TS. 94E is up to 80% and advisories will be initiated at 11am likely.

1. A POORLY DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES
OF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING...AND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN MAZATLAN AND HUATABAMPITO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
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My new full tropical update blog, Long-lived Nadine almost a hurricane again, Miriam dissipates, Jelawat weakening
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Okinawa, Typhoon Approach WunderMap®
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Quoting PlazaRed:
After more than a year of drought here in Andalucia, Spain we now have a spin off from Nadine causing all sorts of heavy rainfall events over the area.
About 4 inches has fallen allready today in parts of the Cadiz province and up to 8 inches more is forcast in some local areas over the next 2 days.
Its hammering down enough to effect visability and distort images here in the Seville area tonight.
Well welcome to the mud season tomorrow. Some of our dams were down to 20% capacity last week.


Indeed, Spain is going to get hammered with severe rain right now. Read the warnings and analyses at Estofex:
http://estofex.org/
and have a look at the satellite.

And btw, hello again from Germany after some time, because I'm just back from a lovely vacation in Italy (Toscana) with a lot of beach- and mountainwalking as well as enjoying a bunch of culture and art. Maybe I'll send some pics later, but unfortunately a lot of work has to be done in the office after all this lazyness, sigh.
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Very hostile environment in the MDR, no signs of tropical activity for a long time. forget the survivor Nadine, she has been around for sometime.
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This out of MOBILE NWS this morning:


LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY
SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING A SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS ON
SATURDAY...THEN MOVING THE STRENGTHENING LOW EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER TROF DEEPENS
TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA. WITH THIS...RAIN CHANCES (IN THE FORM
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS) ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LIKELY POPS SATURDAY TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS THE WEAKENS AND
LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM OUR AREA. INCREASED CLOUDINESS OVER MOST OF THE
FCST PERIOD AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S...AND
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S INTERIOR TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL. 12/DS
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mojos moving in
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Quoting Gearsts:
I'm wondering from looking at the shear map, what made the shear in the atlantic increase so much?


Fall?
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning and good evening to everyone. I see Nadine is still trying to get to the number one spot for longevity.



Hangin' in there like a hair in a biscuit.
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Quoting Gearsts:
I'm wondering from looking at the shear map, what made the shear in the atlantic increase so much?
EI NIñO
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
It's Friday, it's supposed to rain all weekend. What more could I ask for?

Everyone have a great Friday!!

Well it's good you are getting rain, have a great Friday. My CoCoRaHS gauge has recorded another 0 and I woke up felling terrible.
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It's Friday, it's supposed to rain all weekend. What more could I ask for?

Everyone have a great Friday!!
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Happy Friday to all from Buda Tx., first flash flood watch here in some time, Our Lakes and Aquifers are begging for it. These heavy rains should put a little water into Lake Travis which is down for past 2 years 50 feet.

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

.TROPICAL DISTURBANCES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHEAST INTO TEXAS TODAY...RESULTING IN
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAINS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS EARLY TODAY...AND
SPREAD EAST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR AREAS BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
HEAVY RAINS WILL NOT ONLY PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...BUT ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALONG LARGER STREAMS
AND RIVERS.




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Good morning everyone, I see Nadine is almost a hurricane again. I am really getting tired of Nadine living on, I can't imagine some of the storms that lived even longer.
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Update from Kadena Air Base on Okinawa island Japan.

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I'm wondering from looking at the shear map, what made the shear in the atlantic increase so much?
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Good morning and good evening to everyone. I see Nadine is still trying to get to the number one spot for longevity.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
445 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
ECTOR COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...
MIDLAND COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 AM CDT

* AT 437 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE MIDLAND AND
ODESSA AREAS AGAIN. RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
QUICKLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AT LEAST ONE INCH AN HOUR.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEST
ODESSA...WARFIELD...VALLEY VIEW...SPRABERRY...ODESSA...NOTREES...
NORTH COWDEN...MISSION DORADO...MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
MIDLAND...GREENWOOD...GOLDSMITH...GARDENDALE AND COTTON FLAT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS... STREETS AND UNDERPASSES...LOW
WATER CROSSINGS... AND LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED
ROADS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.
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looks like the dry parts of Texas are finally getting some rain........
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Good morning folks..amazing Nadine is going to break records i think in the longevity books huh............
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Anyone know the record number of advisories for a tropical cyclone?

Did some quick research, I found out that Dr Masters made a mistake. Ginger was 1971 not 1970.
She lasted from 0000Z September 6th as a TD->TS->HU->TS->TD or 109 advisories. At 0600Z on October the 3rd she was downgraded to ex-tropical and she lasted another 9 advisories after that or till 0600Z October 5 1971. I have linked all these images to the original.












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Quoting KoritheMan:
I blog to the dead again. Also did a section on the Gulf of Mexico storm.


the dead have spoken... :)

evening mate!

mornin' everyone else!
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327. VR46L
I know its pretty much the wrong time of year but this is one strong wave coming off Africa ...
Funktop


Rainbow


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70 mph Nadine...

000
WTNT44 KNHC 280852
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 63
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

NADINE IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH SATELLITE IMAGES
HAVING HINTS OF AN EYE ON THE INFRARED CHANNEL DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE STORM HAS AN INNER
CORE AND A MOSTLY CLOSED EYEWALL. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO
60 KT...NEAR THE LATEST CIMSS MICROWAVE ESTIMATES. WHILE THE SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK TO MODERATE...SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY
COOL...WHICH WILL PROBABLY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC FORECAST LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY AT
60 KT...ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
IF NADINE BECAME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY. IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE STORM SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH. NADINE WILL ALSO BE MOVING
OVER COLDER WATERS....AND THESE FACTORS SHOULD START A WEAKENING
TREND. THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED SOMEWHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
IN THE LONGER RANGE...CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

NADINE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KT. A RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON SATURDAY.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST
48H OF THE FORECAST AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
PREDICTION. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
NADINE WILL STALL FOR A DAY OR SO AS IT WAITS FOR A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THE FORECAST AIDS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED EASTWARD IN THE
LONGER RANGE...WITH THE UKMET NOW JOINING A PACK OF MODELS THAT
INCLUDES THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THIS SOLUTION. THE
NOTABLE OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNUSUAL
SOUTHWARD CYCLONIC LOOP DUE TO NADINE MOVING WITHIN A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE
AND THE FACT THAT MORE MODELS ARE TRENDING EASTWARD...THE NHC
FORECAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTIONS FOR DAYS 4
AND 5...BUT IS STILL CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE LATEST DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 29.0N 34.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 29.6N 34.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 31.1N 35.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 32.9N 36.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 35.0N 36.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 36.4N 37.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 36.5N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 37.0N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.