Jelawat brushing Taiwan; Nadine enters its 15th day of life
Impressive Super Typhoon Jelawat remains just below Category 5 strength, as it heads north-northwest a few hundred miles east-southeast of Taiwan. The outer rain bands of the mighty typhoon are bringing heavy rains to the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island, and will spread over eastern Taiwan later today, as seen on Taiwan radar. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters do not extend to as great depth as they did when Jelawat was east of the Philippines, though. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 43 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.
The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move north-northwest and then north, with the center passing about 150 miles to the east of Taiwan on Friday. Jelawat will likely pass very close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm on Sunday. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Friday morning, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Jelawat taken at 1:03 am EDT Thursday, September 27, 2012. At the time, Jelawat had top winds of 155 mph, and an unusually large 43-mile diameter eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Figure 2. Super Typhoon Jelawat's rain bands approaching Taiwan at 22:20 local time on September 27, 2012. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.
Nadine enters its 15th day of life
The Energizer-bunny storm of 2012, Tropical Storm Nadine, has entered its 15th day of life as a tropical cyclone. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Tuesday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. That model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure by Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die late next week. However, the 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will miss the trough, and meander in the Central Atlantic for at least the next ten days. Nadine is already in ninth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:
1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 202: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Faith, 1966: 15.5 named storm days
9) Nadine, 2012: 15.0 named storm days
The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.
Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 10:15 am EDT Wednesday, September 26, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.
The rest of the Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic through October 3. Most of the models predict that an extratropical storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, off the coast of Texas. Phase Space Diagrams from Florida State University show that this low is expected to remain non-tropical as it moves east-northeast across the Gulf, potentially coming ashore over the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
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TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 64
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2012
...NADINE BECOMES A HURRICANE FOR THE SECOND TIME...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 34.7W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.7 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY.
A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY.
Hey, she's trying to draw a rough map of Australia.... cool!!!!
Did Michael make cat 4 or only Cat 3?
Looked like a Cat 4 to me.
Hey, if she does New Zealand, we are in trouble.
I'm with you in believing it was stronger than 115 mph. Looked look like a borderline Category 4.
no surface obs, no chance to tell if it was a 3 or 4 only from satellite.
(Kind of Halloweenish lookin'.. )
Credit: solarham.net
Heavy rainfall hits south Spain, 5,000 to be evacuated
28 September 2012, 15:37 (GMT 05:00)
Civil authorities in the province of Malaga in south Spain on Friday decided to evacuate around 5,000 people as a result of the heavy rainfall in the region, Xinhua reported.
The areas affected are the towns of Cartama, Alora, Sierra de Yeguas, Villanueva del Trabuco and Genalguacil.
Emergency services have decided to activate their emergency plan in response to the rainfall which is forecast to continue all Friday and into the weekend.
The Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has predicted storms with a possible rainfall of 120 liters per square meters over the coming 12 hours.
Meanwhile, several towns are also suffering from power cuts and are without water due to the rain.
The nearby provinces of Granada, Sevilla, Almeria and Cordoba have also been placed on orange alert over the extreme weather.
The rain has finally put an end to one of the hottest and driest summers on record in Spain which saw average temperatures over 1.5 degrees centigrade higher than average. But rainfall is 37 percent lower than average over the last 12 months.
That has created ideal conditions for the spread of wildfires. About 170,000 hectares of countryside have been destroyed by over 4,000 fires this summer. Enditem
Edit: Unfortunately already one fatality.
Nice to start with a sunny day and dew point of 47 instead of mid 60s when the front stalled over us midweek.
The National Disaster Management Authority says 422 people have been killed and nearly 3,000 have been injured during the season of heavy rains. About five million people have been affected by the resulting floods, according to statistics that were posted on the authority's website Friday.
Pakistan suffers every year from flooding caused by massive monsoon rains that sweep across the country late in the summer and cause rivers and streams to overflow.
An official with the authority, Maj. Iftikhar Ahmed, told the AP that the rainfall this year was significantly less than in 2010, when catastrophic floods put one-fifth of the country under water and killed 1,985 people.
As for American grain crops farmers are sitting on their crops waiting for prices to peak. There is also no pressure to decide right away who to sell their wheat, durum and barley now that the Canadian Wheat Board no longer has a monopoly over the marketing of those grains.
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