Super Typhoon Jelawat headed towards Okinawa
Super Typhoon Jelawat completed an eyewall replacement cycle over the past 24 hours, resulting in a slight weakening of the storm below Category 5 strength. Jelawat is now a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds. Fortunately, Jelawat is located well east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm is not expected to hit land while it is at major typhoon strength. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C that extend to great depth, so it is possible that Jelawat could regain Category 5 status later today. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 25 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.
The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, then turn to the north and north-northeast a few hundred miles east of Taiwan. Jelawat will likely pass close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 typhoon on Friday near 20 UTC, and could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm over the weekend. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Thursday, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Jelawat taken at 7:12 am EDT Tuesday September 26, 2012. A solid ring of echoes surrounds the calm eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Tropical Storm Miriam steadily weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam is being attacked by high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, and satellite imagery shows the storm is falling apart. High wind shear in excess of 30 knots will attack Miriam by Thursday, and Miriam should dissipate off the coast of Baja by Friday. Miriam's moisture is expected to stay out to sea.
Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 25, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Except for Nadine, the Atlantic is quiet
Never-say-die Tropical Storm Nadine continues to wander in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, far from any land areas. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model--though the model shows Nadine stopping short of a direct hit on the islands. Nadine has already been around as a named storm for thirteen days, and will still probably be around a week from now. According to the Tropical Cyclone FAQ, the average Atlantic named storm lasts about six days, and the all-time longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone lasted 27.75 days.
A small area of heavy thunderstorms has developed about 700 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, is struggling with dry air, and none of the reliable computer models are predicting development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 — Blog Index
So close but yet so far, already looking great.
Sources:
1. NWS Climate Prediction Center, Sept. 24, 2012 report,
Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation (PDF)
2. Model Outlooks of ENSO Conditions, Australian BOM
Issued on Wednesday 19 September 2012
Pacific remains close to El Nino thresholds
It is redundant as a Do-nut Hole.
It is a BAD tool to relate to the masse's a Hurricanes potential Impact.
As Issac showed us...,
Once again.
This is a much better visual tool or tool's.
Fo sho'.
: )
Although I believe the Warm Neutral event (Very Weak El Nino), has peaked... Because as you can see all 4 nino quardrants have cooled since The End of August. It's not exactly a surprise, the climate models were predicting that El Nino would slowly fade through the Winter, and then we would dive back toward a Cool Neutral or Weak La Nina by next summer.
The thing about it is... Most people dont take the time to go online and go to the NHC site and look at all the advisory information... They just watch the news or a media source and partially you could blame it on the media for minimizing some crucial things about the storm... They really dont talk about all aspects of a landfalling storm which makes people that don't track storms like most of those on the blog, to think that the storm isn't as bad than it really is.
Ask and you shall receive! Looks like the new frame just updated.
Super Typhoon 18W (Jelawat), # 11
9:15 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 26, Japan time: Jelawat won’t be the powerful beast it is now, but should still take a pretty solid 2-by-4 to Okinawa as it rolls 12 miles south of the island about 10 p.m. Saturday, still packing a Category 1-equivalent punch of 86-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts.
It looks as if Jelawat will weaken rapidly as it plunges northeast and crashes ashore near Hamamatsu on Honshu’s south coast around 3 p.m. Monday, still packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. Those should diminish as Jelawat interacts with mountains and strong vertical wind shear; U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain should feel some serious gusts and experience some rainshowers into Monday evening.
Latest Okinawa forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- Sustained 35-mph winds and greater, 6 a.m. Saturday.
-- Sustained 40-mph winds and greater, noon Saturday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds and greater, 5 p.m. Saturday.
-- Maximum 86-mph sustained winds, 115-mph gusts, 11 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 3 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 6 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 10 a.m. Sunday.
(Information bolded involve wind speeds of 58 mph or greater, the "magic number" according to military instruction.)
My wish has been granted, new frame shows Jelawat in the morning sun.
The Weather Channel does a good job of covering all of the aspects of a storm. Some people, certainly not everyone, make no effort to review the effects of the storm, such as storm surge, and then complain about not getting any help afterwards.
Typhoon ‘Lawin’ picks up, heads for Batanes
5:02 am | Thursday, September 27th, 2012
Typhoon “Lawin” sped up slightly as it continued its movement towards the northern Philippines, the state weather bureau said. At 4 p.m. Wednesday, the eye of the supertyphoon was plotted by satellite and surface data at 410 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said.
Lawin was packing maximum sustained winds of 215 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 250 kph. It was moving northwest at 13 kph, slightly faster than its previous speed of 11 kph, Pagasa said in a bulletin. Public storm warning signal No. 2 was hoisted over the Batanes group of islands and Cagayan, including the Calayan and Babuyan groups of islands. On the other hand, signal No. 1 was raised in Ilocos Norte, Kalinga, Apayao, Abra and Isabela.
Pagasa said Lawin might make landfall Thursday, although another possible scenario was that it might not make landfall anymore, based on certain models. As of Wednesday, it was moving toward the Batanes-Cagayan area. - DJ Yap
Intense cyclone in the Gulf of Alaska
Baja earthquake rattles Mexico, but causes no injuries
Reuters / September 26, 2012 Mexico City
A magnitude 6.2 earthquake struck off the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, on Tuesday and caused panic, but local officials said there were no reports of damage or injuries. The quake's epicenter was located 46 miles (75 km) north of La Paz, Mexico, and was centered in the Gulf of California, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
More here.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Looks like that pass is a bit warped on the edge based on the appearance of the eastern eyewall.
Yeah, why I think his strengthening is over for good.
That would've been great as long as it didn't impact land severely.
Melting Arctic snow isn’t as dramatic as melting sea ice, but the snow may be vanishing just as rapidly, with potentially profound consequences for weather in the United States.
Across the Arctic, snow melted earlier and more completely this year than any in recorded history. In the same way ice loss exposes dark water to the sun’s radiant heat, melting snow causes exposed ground to heat up, adding to the Arctic’s already super-sized warming.
This extra heat retention appears to alter the polar jet stream, slowing it down and causing mid-latitude weather patterns to linger. It’s even possible that the ongoing North American drought, the worst since the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, was fueled in part by climate change in the Arctic, making it a preview of this new weather pattern’s ripple effects.
“In the past, whatever happened in the Arctic stayed in the Arctic. But now it seems to be reaching down from time to time in the mid-latitudes,” said climatologist James Overland of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. “When you combine the new influence of the Arctic with other effects, such as El Niño, we’re seeing the more extreme weather events.”
Michael was the best in the Atlantic.
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/09/arctic- snow-melt/
Yeah, he was pretty cool especially since he wasn't really supposed to become anything, but he was still no Cat 5 monster like Jelawat was.
I think that has to do more with the quality of the pass than it does the organization of Jelawat. I personally expect Jelawat to strengthen a little bit, possibly just back into category 5 threshold, but an eyewall of that size is quite difficult for a storm to maintain, especially as Jelawat prepares to enter the mid-latitude westerlies.
It was Masters island and the progress of the MJO to boot.
TIBAK1
PUBLIC TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
344 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012
...A STRONG EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED BUT A TSUNAMI IS NOT
EXPECTED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/
BRITISH COLUMBIA OR ALASKA COASTS...
NO WARNING... NO WATCH AND NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS.
BASED ON THE EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE... LOCATION AND HISTORIC
TSUNAMI RECORDS A DAMAGING TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/ BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA
COASTS. SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE NON-DAMAGING SEA
LEVEL CHANGES.
AT 340 PM ALASKA DAYLIGHT TIME ON SEPTEMBER 26 AN EARTHQUAKE WITH
PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE 6.9 OCCURRED 80 MILES/129 KM SOUTHWEST OF
ADAK ALASKA.
PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER MESSAGES FOR INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT BY THE
WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER UNLESS ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. SEE THE WEB SITE WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV
FOR BASIC TSUNAMI INFORMATION - SAFETY RULES AND TSUNAMI TRAVEL
TIMES.
$$
Nah, I think Jelawat is probably done strengthening. Nadine however I have no clue as to what she will do.
If we do, it will be in the western Caribbean. Careful with that proclamation, oh ye who lives in Honduras. :P
I say one Caribbean storm and one higher latitude storm, hi Kori.
It will be December 22nd and Nadine will still be around, that's how long she will be around.
Agree to disagree, although in the end, it matters not to me. And yeah, Nadine is definitely still a wait and see.
The beauty of the site is we can disagree and agree on stuff, can't really do more than an educated guess for Nadine.
Now we will wait to see if it stays at 50mph at the 11pm advisory.
Viewing: 201 - 251
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 — Blog Index