Super Typhoon Jelawat headed towards Okinawa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2012

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Super Typhoon Jelawat completed an eyewall replacement cycle over the past 24 hours, resulting in a slight weakening of the storm below Category 5 strength. Jelawat is now a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds. Fortunately, Jelawat is located well east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm is not expected to hit land while it is at major typhoon strength. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C that extend to great depth, so it is possible that Jelawat could regain Category 5 status later today. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 25 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, then turn to the north and north-northeast a few hundred miles east of Taiwan. Jelawat will likely pass close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 typhoon on Friday near 20 UTC, and could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm over the weekend. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Thursday, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Jelawat taken at 7:12 am EDT Tuesday September 26, 2012. A solid ring of echoes surrounds the calm eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Miriam steadily weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam is being attacked by high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, and satellite imagery shows the storm is falling apart. High wind shear in excess of 30 knots will attack Miriam by Thursday, and Miriam should dissipate off the coast of Baja by Friday. Miriam's moisture is expected to stay out to sea.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 25, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Except for Nadine, the Atlantic is quiet
Never-say-die Tropical Storm Nadine continues to wander in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, far from any land areas. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model--though the model shows Nadine stopping short of a direct hit on the islands. Nadine has already been around as a named storm for thirteen days, and will still probably be around a week from now. According to the Tropical Cyclone FAQ, the average Atlantic named storm lasts about six days, and the all-time longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone lasted 27.75 days.

A small area of heavy thunderstorms has developed about 700 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, is struggling with dry air, and none of the reliable computer models are predicting development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting allancalderini:
October and November have still not pass so maybe we can still get one of those.


If we do, it will be in the western Caribbean. Careful with that proclamation, oh ye who lives in Honduras. :P
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

I think that has to do more with the quality of the pass than it does the organization of Jelawat. I personally expect Jelawat to strengthen a little bit, possibly just back into category 5 threshold, but an eyewall of that size is quite difficult for a storm to maintain, especially as Jelawat prepares to enter the mid-latitude westerlies.

Nah, I think Jelawat is probably done strengthening. Nadine however I have no clue as to what she will do.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
WEAK53 PAAQ 262344
TIBAK1

PUBLIC TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
344 PM AKDT WED SEP 26 2012

...A STRONG EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED BUT A TSUNAMI IS NOT
EXPECTED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/
BRITISH COLUMBIA OR ALASKA COASTS...

NO WARNING... NO WATCH AND NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS.

BASED ON THE EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE... LOCATION AND HISTORIC
TSUNAMI RECORDS A DAMAGING TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/ BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA
COASTS. SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE NON-DAMAGING SEA
LEVEL CHANGES.

AT 340 PM ALASKA DAYLIGHT TIME ON SEPTEMBER 26 AN EARTHQUAKE WITH
PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE 6.9 OCCURRED 80 MILES/129 KM SOUTHWEST OF
ADAK ALASKA.

PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER MESSAGES FOR INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT BY THE
WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER UNLESS ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. SEE THE WEB SITE WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV
FOR BASIC TSUNAMI INFORMATION - SAFETY RULES AND TSUNAMI TRAVEL
TIMES.

$$
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 85 Comments: 8150
Quoting angelafritz:


He created a "blogosphere" comic at one point, didn't he? I remember seeing one with Jeff Masters as an island. Not sure if that was him or not.


It was Masters island and the progress of the MJO to boot.
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Yikes, 6.9 earthquake in the Aleutian Islands. Shallow too, 35km.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 85 Comments: 8150
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yeah, why I think his strengthening is over for good.


That would've been great as long as it didn't impact land severely.

I think that has to do more with the quality of the pass than it does the organization of Jelawat. I personally expect Jelawat to strengthen a little bit, possibly just back into category 5 threshold, but an eyewall of that size is quite difficult for a storm to maintain, especially as Jelawat prepares to enter the mid-latitude westerlies.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Michael was the best in the Atlantic.

Yeah, he was pretty cool especially since he wasn't really supposed to become anything, but he was still no Cat 5 monster like Jelawat was.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 85 Comments: 8150
Link for comment 229

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/09/arctic- snow-melt/
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I really wish we could've gotten one of these out in the Atlantic this year:



Michael was the best in the Atlantic.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15379
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I really wish we could've gotten one of these out in the Atlantic this year:

October and November have still not pass so maybe we can still get one of those.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467



Melting Arctic snow isn’t as dramatic as melting sea ice, but the snow may be vanishing just as rapidly, with potentially profound consequences for weather in the United States.

Across the Arctic, snow melted earlier and more completely this year than any in recorded history. In the same way ice loss exposes dark water to the sun’s radiant heat, melting snow causes exposed ground to heat up, adding to the Arctic’s already super-sized warming.

This extra heat retention appears to alter the polar jet stream, slowing it down and causing mid-latitude weather patterns to linger. It’s even possible that the ongoing North American drought, the worst since the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, was fueled in part by climate change in the Arctic, making it a preview of this new weather pattern’s ripple effects.

“In the past, whatever happened in the Arctic stayed in the Arctic. But now it seems to be reaching down from time to time in the mid-latitudes,” said climatologist James Overland of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. “When you combine the new influence of the Arctic with other effects, such as El Niño, we’re seeing the more extreme weather events.”
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Looks like that pass is a bit warped on the edge based on the appearance of the eastern eyewall.

Yeah, why I think his strengthening is over for good.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I really wish we could've gotten one of these out in the Atlantic this year:


That would've been great as long as it didn't impact land severely.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
I really wish we could've gotten one of these out in the Atlantic this year:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 85 Comments: 8150
Quoting wxchaser97:
New microwave still shows a good eyewall, I do think strengthening is over though.

Looks like that pass is a bit warped on the edge based on the appearance of the eastern eyewall.
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94E up to 40%.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15379
224. etxwx
Report on yesterday's Mexican earthquake via CSM:

Baja earthquake rattles Mexico, but causes no injuries
Reuters / September 26, 2012 Mexico City

A magnitude 6.2 earthquake struck off the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, on Tuesday and caused panic, but local officials said there were no reports of damage or injuries. The quake's epicenter was located 46 miles (75 km) north of La Paz, Mexico, and was centered in the Gulf of California, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
More here.
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223. JLPR2
A little old, but it actually made me go, hmm...


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New microwave still shows a good eyewall, I do think strengthening is over though.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
I know Alaskans are used to it, but I wanted to share this anyway.

Intense cyclone in the Gulf of Alaska

Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
220. etxwx
"Lawin" (Jelawat) Report from Philippine Daily Inquirer:

Typhoon ‘Lawin’ picks up, heads for Batanes
5:02 am | Thursday, September 27th, 2012

Typhoon “Lawin” sped up slightly as it continued its movement towards the northern Philippines, the state weather bureau said. At 4 p.m. Wednesday, the eye of the supertyphoon was plotted by satellite and surface data at 410 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said.

Lawin was packing maximum sustained winds of 215 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 250 kph. It was moving northwest at 13 kph, slightly faster than its previous speed of 11 kph, Pagasa said in a bulletin. Public storm warning signal No. 2 was hoisted over the Batanes group of islands and Cagayan, including the Calayan and Babuyan groups of islands. On the other hand, signal No. 1 was raised in Ilocos Norte, Kalinga, Apayao, Abra and Isabela.

Pagasa said Lawin might make landfall Thursday, although another possible scenario was that it might not make landfall anymore, based on certain models. As of Wednesday, it was moving toward the Batanes-Cagayan area. - DJ Yap
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Although I believe the Warm Neutral event (Very Weak El Nino), has peaked... Because as you can see all 4 nino quardrants have cooled since The End of August. It's not exactly a surprise, the climate models were predicting that El Nino would slowly fade through the Winter, and then we would dive back toward a Cool Neutral or Weak La Nina by next summer.
Possibly, or another warm phase of a Kelvin wave could begin coming across the equator. It looks like we are at a low point right now. The last Kelvin wave was weaker than the one before and the CPC did not even bother to mark it up in their report, so that is not a sign of a strengthening El Nino.
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I have a weather station where I upload data and picture. Did they change something, my link for timelaspe not working anymore. Also don't see the monthly calendar with timelaspe links. Not checked in awhile so not sure what has changed.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The thing about it is... Most people dont take the time to go online and go to the NHC site and look at all the advisory information... They just watch the news or a media source and partially you could blame it on the media for minimizing some crucial things about the storm... They really dont talk about all aspects of a landfalling storm which makes people that don't track storms like most of those on the blog, to think that the storm isn't as bad than it really is.

The Weather Channel does a good job of covering all of the aspects of a storm. Some people, certainly not everyone, make no effort to review the effects of the storm, such as storm surge, and then complain about not getting any help afterwards.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33600
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Ask and you shall receive! Looks like the new frame just updated.

My wish has been granted, new frame shows Jelawat in the morning sun.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
215. etxwx
Here's the current Pacific Storm Tracker blog entry from Dave Ornauer via Stars and Stripes:
Super Typhoon 18W (Jelawat), # 11
9:15 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 26, Japan time: Jelawat won’t be the powerful beast it is now, but should still take a pretty solid 2-by-4 to Okinawa as it rolls 12 miles south of the island about 10 p.m. Saturday, still packing a Category 1-equivalent punch of 86-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts.

It looks as if Jelawat will weaken rapidly as it plunges northeast and crashes ashore near Hamamatsu on Honshu’s south coast around 3 p.m. Monday, still packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. Those should diminish as Jelawat interacts with mountains and strong vertical wind shear; U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain should feel some serious gusts and experience some rainshowers into Monday evening.

Latest Okinawa forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Sustained 35-mph winds and greater, 6 a.m. Saturday.
-- Sustained 40-mph winds and greater, noon Saturday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds and greater, 5 p.m. Saturday.
-- Maximum 86-mph sustained winds, 115-mph gusts, 11 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 3 a.m. Sunday.

-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 6 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 10 a.m. Sunday.

(Information bolded involve wind speeds of 58 mph or greater, the "magic number" according to military instruction.)
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Can the sun rise faster please, I want to fully see Jelawat in visible.

Ask and you shall receive! Looks like the new frame just updated.
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Can the sun rise faster please, I want to fully see Jelawat in visible.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The SSHWS is for wind impact only. All of the other impacts of a storm are listed clearly in the Public Advisory, if people would, you know, read it.

The thing about it is... Most people dont take the time to go online and go to the NHC site and look at all the advisory information... They just watch the news or a media source and partially you could blame it on the media for minimizing some crucial things about the storm... They really dont talk about all aspects of a landfalling storm which makes people that don't track storms like most of those on the blog, to think that the storm isn't as bad than it really is.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting Patrap:
Los Trof ?

Quoting Patrap:
Los Trof ?

Noticed that also. Look at latest vorticity.
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Quoting guygee:
OK, true, warm-neutral, no El Nino declared in the official 3 month average, but all Nino region SSTs above average.


Sources:
1. NWS Climate Prediction Center, Sept. 24, 2012 report,
Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation (PDF)

2. Model Outlooks of ENSO Conditions, Australian BOM
Issued on Wednesday 19 September 2012
Pacific remains close to El Nino thresholds

Although I believe the Warm Neutral event (Very Weak El Nino), has peaked... Because as you can see all 4 nino quardrants have cooled since The End of August. It's not exactly a surprise, the climate models were predicting that El Nino would slowly fade through the Winter, and then we would dive back toward a Cool Neutral or Weak La Nina by next summer.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
The SSHWS is for wind impact only. All of the other impacts of a storm are listed clearly in the Public Advisory, if people would, you know, read it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33600
Nadine is more or less being Nadine.



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Tropical Storm Isaac, one month later
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Quoting quasistationary:
It isn't, nor has there been an El Nino yet.
OK, true, warm-neutral, no El Nino declared in the official 3 month average, but all Nino region SSTs above average.


Sources:
1. NWS Climate Prediction Center, Sept. 24, 2012 report,
Weekly ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation (PDF)

2. Model Outlooks of ENSO Conditions, Australian BOM
Issued on Wednesday 19 September 2012
Pacific remains close to El Nino thresholds
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Almost there...


So close but yet so far, already looking great.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
Almost there...

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201. wxchaser97
10:34 PM GMT on September 26, 2012
As part of my independent study I have to do a writing portion. I write blogs on WU to fill this requirement, I have just recently written(earlier this afternoon) one on Hurricane Isaac and the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, Link.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
198. hurricaneben
10:26 PM GMT on September 26, 2012
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
15 Days later at the NHC...


...NADINE STILL SWIRLING AROUND LIKE THE PAST 17 DAYS PRIOR, NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH, THE MONTH-LONG CYCLONE WILL BE RETIRED SO WE DON'T HAVE TO HEAR THE NAME EVER AGAIN...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Advisory #113
5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 11
Location: 29.2%uFFFDN 52.8%uFFFDW
Moving: SW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph


So much for the Karen Jokes.


What Karen jokes?
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 421 Comments: 679
196. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2012
Typhoon "LAWIN" has slightly weakened as it continues to move towards the Batanes-Cagayan area.

At 4:00 AM PhSt, Typhoon Lawin (Jelawat) [927 hPa] located at 19.5°N 125.1°E or 350 km east of Calayan Group of Islands has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2
----------------

Luzon Region
============
1. Batanes Group of Islands
2. Cagayan
3. Calayan
4. Babuyan Group of Islands

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon Region
==============
1. Ilocos Norte
2. Kalinga
3. Apayao
4. Abra
5. Isabela

Additional Information
========================

Residents living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this typhoon.

Estimated amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 800 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of central Luzon, the seaboards of southern Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by Typhoon "LAWIN" and Southwest Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 54 Comments: 48864
195. CybrTeddy
10:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2012
Looks like I'm not the only one with a Star Wars avatar!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24726
194. wxchaser97
10:21 PM GMT on September 26, 2012
Quoting Articuno:

Here we go.

DARTHHHHH VADERRRRR

Luke, I am your father.

Cool to see a rule added, should clear some things up.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
193. Articuno
10:20 PM GMT on September 26, 2012
Quoting WunderBlogAdmin:
We'd like everyone to take a look at the Rules of the Road for this blog again quickly.

We've...altered the rules, adding an 11th rule which reads as follows:

Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.

As the elections approach we'd like to keep the blog discussion as on topic and as civil as can be managed.

As always this applies to Dr. Masters' blog only. You may discuss all manner of politics in your own blogs so long as the conversation conforms to the Community Standards and Terms of Service for the site.

Thank you.

Here we go.

DARTHHHHH VADERRRRR
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2564
192. WunderBlogAdmin (Admin)
10:17 PM GMT on September 26, 2012
We'd like everyone to take a look at the Rules of the Road for this blog again quickly.

We've...altered the rules, adding an 11th rule which reads as follows:

Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.

As the elections approach we'd like to keep the blog discussion as on topic and as civil as can be managed.

As always this applies to Dr. Masters' blog only. You may discuss all manner of politics in your own blogs so long as the conversation conforms to the Community Standards and Terms of Service for the site.

Thank you.
191. trHUrrIXC5MMX
10:13 PM GMT on September 26, 2012
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
15 Days later at the NHC...


...WILL SHE EVER DIE? NADINE SWIRLING AROUND LIKE THE PAST 15 DAYS PRIOR, NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH, OH DID WE MENTION THIS IS A NEW RECORD?...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Advisory #113
5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 11
Location: 29.2%uFFFDN 52.8%uFFFDW
Moving: SW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph


So much for the Karen Jokes.


steward pulling his hair
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
190. HurricaneDean07
10:05 PM GMT on September 26, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I wouldn't be so sold on Nadine becoming our longest lived storm yet. First, as TA mentioned it's possible/likely it will become non-tropical for a while at some point, so that will hurt it's chances. I'm also expecting models to come around to a faster solution on getting it out of the Atlantic. I doubt it survives more than 10 days, if that.


Kill-joy. Cmon MA! We were getting excited!
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
189. HurricaneDean07
10:01 PM GMT on September 26, 2012
15 Days later at the NHC...


...NADINE STILL SWIRLING AROUND LIKE THE PAST 17 DAYS PRIOR, NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH, THE MONTH-LONG CYCLONE WILL BE RETIRED SO WE DON'T HAVE TO HEAR THE NAME EVER AGAIN...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Advisory #113
5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 11
Location: 29.2%uFFFDN 52.8%uFFFDW
Moving: SW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph


So much for the Karen Jokes.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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