Super Typhoon Jelawat headed towards Okinawa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2012

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Super Typhoon Jelawat completed an eyewall replacement cycle over the past 24 hours, resulting in a slight weakening of the storm below Category 5 strength. Jelawat is now a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds. Fortunately, Jelawat is located well east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm is not expected to hit land while it is at major typhoon strength. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C that extend to great depth, so it is possible that Jelawat could regain Category 5 status later today. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 25 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, then turn to the north and north-northeast a few hundred miles east of Taiwan. Jelawat will likely pass close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 typhoon on Friday near 20 UTC, and could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm over the weekend. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Thursday, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Jelawat taken at 7:12 am EDT Tuesday September 26, 2012. A solid ring of echoes surrounds the calm eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Miriam steadily weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam is being attacked by high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, and satellite imagery shows the storm is falling apart. High wind shear in excess of 30 knots will attack Miriam by Thursday, and Miriam should dissipate off the coast of Baja by Friday. Miriam's moisture is expected to stay out to sea.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 25, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Except for Nadine, the Atlantic is quiet
Never-say-die Tropical Storm Nadine continues to wander in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, far from any land areas. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model--though the model shows Nadine stopping short of a direct hit on the islands. Nadine has already been around as a named storm for thirteen days, and will still probably be around a week from now. According to the Tropical Cyclone FAQ, the average Atlantic named storm lasts about six days, and the all-time longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone lasted 27.75 days.

A small area of heavy thunderstorms has developed about 700 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, is struggling with dry air, and none of the reliable computer models are predicting development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stevsh89:
Morning all,

Been another wet one here in the UK, though forecasts are suggesting the spawn of Nadine may be reduced to scattered showers. There have been reports of rivers reaching their peak levels and more flooding in the north of England:

BBC report on flooding

Because of the large amount of water entering the rivers here, the Environment Agency has still got 43 flood warnings that are valid, again mostly for the northeast and northwest:

Environment Agency

Pretty sure I speak for the whole of the UK when I say that we've had enough of flooding for one year!

Heaviest Summer rains in 30 years......

Bad stuff there.

Hope things settle down soon. The UK has had a Bad Year so far.
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Morning all,

Been another wet one here in the UK, though forecasts are suggesting the spawn of Nadine may be reduced to scattered showers. There have been reports of rivers reaching their peak levels and more flooding in the north of England:

BBC report on flooding

Because of the large amount of water entering the rivers here, the Environment Agency has still got 43 flood warnings that are valid, again mostly for the northeast and northwest:

Environment Agency

Pretty sure I speak for the whole of the UK when I say that we've had enough of flooding for one year!
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Everyone have a great Thursday!
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336. VR46L
Quoting WunderBlogAdmin:
We'd like everyone to take a look at the Rules of the Road for this blog again quickly.

We've...altered the rules, adding an 11th rule which reads as follows:

Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.

As the elections approach we'd like to keep the blog discussion as on topic and as civil as can be managed.

As always this applies to Dr. Masters' blog only. You may discuss all manner of politics in your own blogs so long as the conversation conforms to the Community Standards and Terms of Service for the site.

Thank you.


Why am I envisaging the Jerry Springer Show right now?......
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
341 am CDT Thursday Sep 27 2012




The GFS is becoming more in line with the Euro on this so
maintained the likely precipitation scenario. Went with an earlier
tapering off of the precipitation late Sunday with the GFS showing a
stacked Gulf low deeper into the Gulf and drier northerly flow
moving in. Delightful early Fall weather during the work week as
the flow remains northerly with the stacked low parked over the
central Gulf.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Actually, Nadine has strengthened a little according to NHC.
...NADINE A LITTLE STRONGER...

Meanwhile, ADT has held steady at 2.6


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.6 2.6

Of course she has, well she has done everything.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
Quoting wxchaser97:
Good morning everyone, I see nothing has changed with Jelawat and Nadine and Miriam is falling apart.

Actually, Nadine has strengthened a little according to NHC.
...NADINE A LITTLE STRONGER...

Meanwhile, ADT has held steady at 2.6


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.6 2.6
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Good morning everyone, I see nothing has changed with Jelawat, Nadine has strengthened some, and Miriam is falling apart.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
no sign of anything yet
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Good morning. There's a chance we'll be seeing some weak GOM development in 3-5 days as the models are getting a little more consistent with it. This is the 6z GFS at 90 hours:

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Good reading Kori
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Morning, everyone. So, is the proposed hit to Louisiana to west Louisiana or east? Supposed to start raining tomorrow or Saturday. My garden will be so happy, but not as happy as my water bill. *S*
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posts 298-300

great views of the eye.. you can see the eyewall vortices intruding into the eye itself... Andrew was about the same strength when it made landfall.. and some of the eyewall vortices in that storm came near 200 mph.
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Nadine Public Discussion 59

"ALTHOUGH I FEAR
THAT NADINE WILL FIND A WAY TO LINGER EVEN LONGER OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
"
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I found this interesting.
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
NOON AST MON NOV 05 2001

...NON-TROPICAL LOW IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC BECOMES HURRICANE
NOEL...THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THE NON-TROPICAL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND REACHED
HURRICANE STRENGTH.
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Nadine slowly strengthening...
6 more hours, then Nadine will have lived for half a month.
By the way, the longest storm in recent history is Hurricane Kyle of 2002, with 89 advisories. Nadine could reach that advisory number if it lasted for 180 more hours (hmm... 7.5 days).

From Tropical Depression Kyle Advisory Number 60 (2002)
"NOT MUCH MORE CAN BE ADDED AFTER 60 ADVISORIES."
FORECASTER AVILA
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Currently in the GOA....

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Quoting AussieStorm:

I wasn't bothered by them when i read it.


Well considering how pedantic I am about grammar, I was.

But thank you. :)
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Oh ****. Just noticed a TON of spelling/grammatical errors in my blog. Luckily I have the eye to see through these things and edit them. :P

I wasn't bothered by them when i read it.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Quoting Matthias1967:
The track of Nadine reminds me a bit on the Australia coastline. There's the Great Australian Bight, Cape York, only Victoria is a little bit too big. Next thing what we can expect Nadine's doing is writing "Visit Australia".

lol I see that also.

Nadine's rains.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
Oh ****. Just noticed a TON of spelling/grammatical errors in my blog. Luckily I have the eye to see through these things and edit them. :P
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


I just finished reading this one.

Link

I'm still cackling over it. :)


LOL






Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16017
The track of Nadine reminds me a bit on the Australia coastline. There's the Great Australian Bight, Cape York, only Victoria is a little bit too big. Next thing what we can expect Nadine's doing is writing "Visit Australia".
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Quoting Jedkins01:



This got me laughing hysterically :)


I just finished reading this one.

Link

I'm still cackling over it. :)

Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 415
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
What if a rainstorm dropped all of its water in a single giant drop?




http://what-if.xkcd.com/12/



This got me laughing hysterically :)
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Looks like pre-Norman may pose another threat to Baja based on the synoptic pattern. Hard to see anything but a straight northwest course between that weakness developing over the Rockies, and Miriam's low-level circulation.

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As usual no one's on, but for those who are, I just finished another blog. Enjoy.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Pfft. One of the least intimidating tropical cyclones name. Oscar the Grouch my ***.

haahahaha
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Quoting allancalderini:
Oscar may attack you Kori.


Pfft. One of the least intimidating tropical cyclones name. Oscar the Grouch my ***.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
00z GFS 114 hrs. GOM system





Baroclinic origins tho..
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Quoting KoritheMan:


And the target is... Louisiana!
Oscar may attack you Kori.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
00z GFS 114 hrs. GOM system





And the target is... Louisiana!
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00z GFS 114 hrs. GOM system



Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
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Login issue has been solved. Sorry for the trouble!
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303. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #26
TYPHOON LAWIN (JELAWAT)
11:00 AM PhST September 27 2012
==================================

Typhoon "LAWIN" has slightly weakened as it continues to threaten the Batanes Group of Islands

At 10:00 AM PhSt, Typhoon Lawin (Jelawat) [938 hPa] located at 19.8°N 124.6°E or 250 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #3
----------------

Luzon Region
============
1. Batanes Group of Islands

Signal Warning #2
----------------

Luzon Region
============
1. Cagayan
2. Calayan
3. Babuyan Group of Islands

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon Region
==============
1. Ilocos Norte
2. Kalinga
3. Apayao
4. Abra
5. Isabela

Additional Information
========================

Residents living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #3 & #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this typhoon.

Estimated amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 800 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of central Luzon, the seaboards of southern Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by Typhoon "LAWIN" and Southwest Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
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Quoting Patrap:
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Hurricane humor
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:59 AM CST on March 06, 2006




Figure 1. A "beer throne" constructed out of half-price beer on sale because it couldn't make it to New Orleans in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

Note: I corrected the spelling of constructed for the er, "archives".

No charge.

: )


First responder !
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just checking out the sun thats a large black spot coming into view

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Quoting 1900hurricane:
I'm impressed.





look at the eye of Jelawat...

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Melting Arctic snow isn’t as dramatic as melting sea ice, but the snow may be vanishing just as rapidly, with potentially profound consequences for weather in the United States.

Across the Arctic, snow melted earlier and more completely this year than any in recorded history. In the same way ice loss exposes dark water to the sun’s radiant heat, melting snow causes exposed ground to heat up, adding to the Arctic’s already super-sized warming.

This extra heat retention appears to alter the polar jet stream, slowing it down and causing mid-latitude weather patterns to linger. It’s even possible that the ongoing North American drought, the worst since the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, was fueled in part by climate change in the Arctic, making it a preview of this new weather pattern’s ripple effects.

“In the past, whatever happened in the Arctic stayed in the Arctic. But now it seems to be reaching down from time to time in the mid-latitudes,” said climatologist James Overland of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. “When you combine the new influence of the Arctic with other effects, such as El Niño, we’re seeing the more extreme weather events.”


Could that be why Nadines sticking around for so long?
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Another thing that is interesting, in the days that NASA's "global hawk" has been flying to Nadine; 2 explosive intensification happened in the Western Pacific. Might've been nicer to have the aircraft moved to Luzon for Sanba and Jelawat rather than Nadine....


It would probably work. Those things have amazing range. They operate out of Edwards AFB.
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Quoting Thing342:
Nadine will probably still be around by then.



She's probably waiting for a Christmas present from Santa. She's been a good girl this year.
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Interesting (and kinda gross) result of the "spawn of Nadine":

http://www.cbc.ca/news/yourcommunity/2012/09/foam -covers-scottish-village-after-freak-storm.html
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I'm impressed.



Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11941
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN
TO T2.5 FROM TAFB AND T2.0 FROM SAB...SUPPORTING THE DESIGNATION OF
THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

Seems like years ago...

Another thing that is interesting, in the days that NASA's "global hawk" has been flying to Nadine; 2 explosive intensification happened in the Western Pacific. Might've been nicer to have the aircraft moved to Luzon for Sanba and Jelawat rather than Nadine....
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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