Miriam Hits Cat 3 Strength off of Mexico; Jelawat a Cat 4 Super Typhoon
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Baja Mexico, Hurricane Miriam put on a burst of rapid intensification this morning that has brought it to Category 3 strength with 120 mph winds. This makes Miriam the 2nd strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane of 2012 behind Hurricane Emelia of July, which hit Category 4 strength with 140 mph winds. Satellite imagery shows that Miriam has a tiny "pinhole" eye, and continues to intensify. Miriam could approach Category 4 strength before an eyewall replacement cycle begins early Tuesday. High wind shear will attack Miriam late this week, and our two top models, the GFS and ECMWF, show Miriam hitting central Baja as a weak tropical storm on Friday or Saturday, with moisture from the storm streaming into Arizona and New Mexico by Sunday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Miriam.
Super Typhoon Jelawat the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone of 2012
In the Western Pacific, Super Typhoon Jelawat put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification on Sunday, strengthening from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds in just 24 hours. Jelawat has topped out as a Category 4 super typhoon with 150 mph winds, making it the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone on Earth so far in 2012, behind Super Typhoon Sanba (175 mph winds.) Jelawat is located about 200 miles to the east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm's outer spiral bands are bringing some moderate rains to the eastern Philippines. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, and Jelawat is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content of over 100 KJ/cm^2, which is exceptionally high. These conditions should allow Jelawat to maintain major typhoon status for at least three more days. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a large symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.
Jelawat is expected to move slowly to the north-northwest to northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, through Tuesday. After that, there remains major uncertainty on where Jelawat might go, with the spread in the computer models about 400 miles for the 3-day forecast. The official Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast compromises between the unusually large spread in the models, predicting a path well east of the Philippines and Taiwan. However, our two top models--the GFS and ECMWF--both predict that Jelawat will hit Taiwan, and the ECMWF model predicts that Jelawat will also graze the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island. Given the large spread in models, the 3 - 5 day forecast for Jelawat is low-confidence, and residents of Luzon and Taiwan should not assume that Jelawat will miss them.
Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Jelawat taken at 12:30 am EDT Monday, September 24, 2012. At the time, Jelawat was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Pesky Nadine still out there
Persistent Tropical Storm Nadine continues to wander westwards in the Middle Atlantic, far enough south of the Azores Islands that those islands will see only very sporadic rain showers over the next few days. Nadine will likely turn to the north over the middle Atlantic late this week, but will still probably be around a week from now. The storm is not likely to threaten any land areas for at least the next seven days.
GOES-13 satellite outage
The imaging instrument on NOAA's geostationary satellite that provides regular images every 15 minutes for the Eastern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean, GOES-13, has been experiencing an increasing amount of noise in the signal since September 12. The noise got so bad on Sunday night that the instrument was placed in stand-by mode, and engineers are attempting to troubleshoot the problem. GOES-15, the geostationary satellite that covers the Western U.S. and Eastern Pacific, is now taking images of all of North America to help compensate. However, there is no regular 15-minute satellite imagery available for most of the North Atlantic, including the Caribbean. September is a bad time to be without satellite imagery over the Atlantic, but fortunately, there are not any threat areas in the Atlantic we are currently worried about. The CIMSS Satellite Blog has more information on the outage, and also has links to polar orbiting satellite imagery over the region where we do not have geostationary data. The loss of GOES-13 data will degrade the accuracy of the computer forecast models for the globe, particularly over the Atlantic, for the duration of the outage.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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That has to be the longest moisture fetch ever. It appears that convection over Central America is feeding this fetch, which transits southern Florida, dropping copious amounts of moisture as it goes. It then moves up the Gulf Stream off the East Coast, takes a right south of Greenland, and then appears to get pulled into Nadine's circulation. It's probably an optical illusions, but it almost appears that Nadine is being kept alive with tropical moisture that starts way back in Central America. All of this energy and all we have are scattered thunderstorms and eventually, Nadine. So much for the "rocket fuel" theory. :)
I think the CV season was about dead anyway, but Nadine is certainly sucking up and spitting out almost all the available energy in that part of the Atlantic.
Think the same about the CV season, but I see CMC and GFS forecast showing some waves again coming out from Africa, as Nadine moves N....
Translation into non-government speak:The real GOES-13 is dead as a doornail. Thankfully, we had that junker GOES-14 in the space storage garage and are using it instead of the real thing. Everything will be fine and dandy, except for coverage and picture quality. The next generation satellites will take over as soon as we can scrape up the rubles and get time on a Russian rocket so we can get them up there, assuming India's not the low bidder. Nothing to see here, just move along...
Yeah, there will be waves, but they will promptly die after a day or two. Pretty hostile environment for late season CV storms.
USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 260 km/hr
Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 220 km/hr
Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 200 km/hr
Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 220 km/hr
notice the turn NE just before Taiwan. That is due to the cold front that is there as seen here...
Could we see a EWRC coming soon??
IT was a case of seafood and eat it in Russia.
A delicious feast of oysters, molluscs, crabs and fresh fish rained down on Lazurnaya Bay in the country's far east.
The seafood BBQ enjoyed by locals was the result of Typhoon Bolaven. The storm caused chaos as it tracked over Russia, halting the Trans Siberia Railway, stopping ferry services and causing black outs.
Local girl Svetlana took these amazing images of the seafood beach for her blog.
"I live here for more than 20 years, but I've never seen anything like this. Now we know what 'manna from heaven' means,” Svetlana said.
The day of the seafood feast will be talked about for years in this part of Russia.
CSIRO scientists are heading to the Ombai Strait and Timor Passage to collect data vital to understanding how an ocean current in the region affects Australia’s climate and weather.
Almost two years ago CSIRO oceanographers deployed moorings in one of Australia’s and globally important ocean currents, the Indonesian Throughflow, which connects the Pacific and Indian Oceans through the complex system of islands.
The moorings will be recovered, their data will be uploaded to the ship’s computers and then they will be returned to the water for a further 18 months.
Leading the research team on board Australia’s Marine National Facility research vessel Southern Surveyor, is oceanographer Dr Bernadette Sloyan who is a specialist in ocean circulation with CSIRO’s Wealth from Oceans Flagship.
“The heat and fresh water carried by the Indonesian Throughflow are known to affect both the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and so understanding the physical and chemical make-up is important for the future management of natural resource,” Dr Sloyan said.
“The current consists of several different layers that occur at different depths, which weave their way through the complex island network; where there are a variety of seabed landscapes affecting the currents, from broad shallow shelves to deep basins.
“We know very little about how this ocean current changes across the seasons and this will be the first time we look at data from these moorings, which have been in place for two years.”
The moorings consist of sensors recording temperature, salinity, and ocean current, spanning the region from the continental margin to off-shore in water depths of over three kilometres.
These moorings are part of the Australian Government funded Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS). Given the importance of the Indonesian Throughflow to Australia’s climate, IMOS intends to undertake long-term monitoring of the two main passages.
Dr Sloyan said IMOS has provided over $1 million in funding to support this work, which will complement existing IMOS observations being collected from the Northwest shelf, Great Barrier Reef, and the East Australian Current.
The research team will also conduct oceanographic sampling and mapping work to create a three-dimensional image of the sea floor in sections of the Timor Passage and the Ombai Strait in the area of the moorings.
The work is being undertaken with the cooperation of Timor-Leste, who will have two observers on the research voyage.
Australia’s Marine National Facility research vessel, Southern Surveyor, is owned and operated by CSIRO, and is available to all Australian scientists.
Click to view full size image, click that image to see inside the eye.
The most important bits:
Arriva Trains Wales said there was severe disruption in the mid Wales, Wrexham and Shropshire areas and journeys should only be made if essential.
Its Chester to Crewe, Shrewsbury to Cardiff, Shrewsbury to Holyhead, Shrewsbury to Manchester, Swansea to Cardiff and routes west of Swansea were all affected.
In other words, all of Wales is affected, the list includes all train lines that we have. No train today...
And the forecast is that Karin remains nearly stationary over the UK for the next 36-48 hours. Ouch, this could turn really bad! Surface pressure forecast of the UK Metoffice.
Its unclear at this point how the hundreds of millions who will be refugees of a rapidly changing climate will be accommodated, and by whom. But whatever it is, it's going to require much more than expanding the suburbs...
And while it is true that all species are capable of varying degrees of adaptability, it might pay to remember that mass die-offs are just an extreme form of adaptation.
Personally I would rather see a good Meme or a Good one liner ,than lines of poetry mocking people who have difficulty spelling, but that's just me
That brought a smile to my face as someone who has mild dyslexia ... Saw something like that many years ago made me smile then and still does :)
And link to BBC News report a safe link
Link
Ireland, England, Wales and others in the path of Karin, stay safe and beware of the flooding. You're all in my thoughts and prayers.
Everyone have a great Tuesday!
The warning service run by the metoffice does not provide the latest information as they are "experiencing a problem getting regional warnings information" Great timing for that! I think they can't keep up with the new warnings popping up all over the place.
Your Welcome . Its been a tough summer for the British Isles . With It being so cold and wet ... Roll on spring its going to be a long winter ... Yes Its a bad time for the UK Met office system to play up.
It's not often one can add something meaningful to one of Nea's posts but I'll give this a try.
A major difference in the CA migration and one mandated by climate change is that most of the people who migrated to CA did not lose their entire property value in the place they left though some surely did. Most of those who moved to CA sold their homes and properties back East and brought the funds to CA with them. Folks who are forced to leave their oceanfront estates because of rising sea level will get nothing for those estates (unless the government gives them some of our tax money) and will have very little to invest in the area they are re-located to. If you want to see what the climate refugees will look like and how they will live, see an old clip of the Okies of the '30's when they arrived in CA.
Anyone who doesn't want to see a draconian future government should be lobbying very hard for solutions to climate change today, before the ocean makes her appearance on the scene.
With the 09z advisory package from the National Hurricane Center, Nadine's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is now up to 14.0525 units. It will surpass Leslie's 14.75 units at 5am EDT tomorrow unless it strengthens some today or dissipates for no reason.
This is a record too, the earliest in 29 years, I've ever re-stocked the porch firewood pile for the up-coming winter.
Brazilian model, nov-Jan major trough US ridge over nw N America.. US cold
Link
Link
Have a great day..................
Right now I don't see anything that would indicate dissipation or strengthening.
At least for now they are, still can't rule out development somewhere.
Morning guys and gals
Sorry I haven't been on lately been a bit busy with school
Link to source of this peer-reviewed data, please.
Or a nice warm-air seclusion if you wanted to be contrary!
Prety much is and has
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