Nadine is back; Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 typhoon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Nadine is back, like a nasty cold you just can't get rid of. Nadine had moved southeastwards over cool waters on Friday and Saturday, which robbed the storm of its heavy thunderstorms and tropical characteristics. But Nadine wandered back to the west this Sunday morning over slightly warmer waters, allowing the storm to regain its heavy thunderstorms and its name. Steering currents favor a continued westwards motion for Nadine, keeping the storm far enough south of the Azores Islands that they will see only very sporadic rain showers over the next few days. Nadine will likely turn to the north over the middle Atlantic late this week, but will still probably be around a week from now. The storm is not likely to threaten any land areas for at least the next seven days.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine, taken at 9:50 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 storm
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Jelawat put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification, strengthening from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds in just 24 hours. Jelawat is located about 200 miles to the east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm's outer spiral bands are bringing moderate rains to the eastern Philippines. Jelawat is expected to move slowly to the north-northwest to northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, through Tuesday. The predicted path is far enough from the Philippines to spare the islands the kind of torrential rains capable of causing major flooding. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, and Jelawat is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content of over 100 KJ/cm^2, which is exceptionally high. These favorable conditions for intensification have prompted the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to predict that Jelawat will become a Category 5 typhoon by Monday. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organzied typhoon with a large symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. There remains a huge uncertainty on where Jelawat might go. The computer models fall into two distinct camps, 350 miles apart, for Jelawat's 3-day position. The models are even more divergent--700 miles apart--for the storm's 5-day position. The more westward solution provided by our two top models, the ECMWF and GFS, is the one currently depicted in the official Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast. Given the large spread in models, the 3 - 5 day forecast for Jelawat is low-confidence.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Jelawat taken at 4:32 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropical Storm Miriam in the Eastern Pacific growing more organized
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam appears poised to put on a burst of rapid intensification that would make it a hurricane on Monday. Our two top models, the GFS and ECMWF, are divergent in their long-range predictions for Miriam. The GFS shows Miriam hitting central Baja on Friday, while the ECMWF keeps the storm offshore, dissipating it a few hundred miles off the Baja coast.

Jeff Masters

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542. 7544
3:25 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. With the Satt loops down, there will be no "blob" talk cluttering the Blog until further notice..............


from what that satilite does show the gom before it cuts off so i call the for the gom blob been there scince last night moving east so we do have one blob to talk about today lol gother ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
541. Grothar
3:19 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting etxwx:

Can you be bribed...errr...encouraged to move us up on the schedule, I mean... with homemade bread? The pond is about 18" low, so I could throw in some catfish too.
Loaves and fishes have been known to work miracles, you know. :-)


I may be easy, but not cheap. Banana nut bread and some doughnuts may get me to move a little your way. Skye doesn't want us to get the blog excited so I'll stay quiet for awhile. Remember, into each life a little blob must fall.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26130
540. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:17 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
539. yonzabam
3:16 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting Chicklit:


dunno GASZ
maybe it ran into some of this..
Link Huge Defunct Satellite Falling to Earth Faster Than Expected, NASA Says

6.5 tons headed for earth on 9/23 give or take a few days.

"UARS satellite carries no toxic propellant (NASA used up all the fuel in 2005).

The debris is expected to fall over a swath of Earth about 500 miles (804 kilometers) long, NASA officials said."



Interesting. There was a news story about a slow moving show of fireballs over Ireland and Scotland on Friday night. They went right over my head, but I was in the house and didn't see anything. There's a Youtube video about it. Grothar was banned briefly for posting the link as it had a lot of Irish swearing in it. He didn't have the volume on. Scientsts think it was probably space junk, so I'd guess it must have been that one that fell. BBC link.

Link
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2925
538. etxwx
3:14 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Gro thinks it's going east...all hail the CMC instead:)...GEOS-5 has a little hope for you too.

Thanks Skye! *keeping my fingers crossed*. It's not near as dry as last year for certain, but we are still losing trees. Had a half a oak tree fall along the back fence line this morning - fortunately it missed the fence and cows.
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1482
537. Skyepony (Mod)
3:10 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Here is the only link I could get Skye!

Link


GOES-13 being down like this is scarey! Try & keep the masses calm:) ASCAT is starting it's morning sweep of the basin..

Fresh Nadine.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
536. kwgirl
3:04 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Good morning all. It has been a cloudy and cool(relative) weekend here in the Keys with sporadic showers and drizzle. The wind has been out of the se at 10-15 mph with no quartering. So there is no spin over us as yet. But storms have formed over us before, though I don't think this blob will do anything but get us wet:)
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535. ncstorm
3:03 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Looks like the Nogaps is real busy with potential development

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
534. etxwx
3:02 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Sorry, currently working on a blob for Florida. I'll see what I can do when the front goes by and move a little moisture your way later.

Can you be bribed...errr...encouraged to move us up on the schedule, I mean... with homemade bread? The pond is about 18" low, so I could throw in some catfish too.
Loaves and fishes have been known to work miracles, you know. :-)
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1482
533. Grothar
2:54 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:


Gro thinks it's going east...all hail the CMC instead:)...GEOS-5 has a little hope for you too.

click pic & click fwd for loop..


Here is the only link I could get Skye!

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26130
532. wxmod
2:50 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1758
531. Grothar
2:50 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
It looks like a small ULL spin in the lower left. It doesn't look like this is going anywhere fast.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26130
530. Grothar
2:47 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting etxwx:


Could you kindly conjurer up a blob for East Texas, Herr Blobmeister? The last round of precipitation was pretty spotty and we are getting dry again. :)


Sorry, currently working on a blob for Florida. I'll see what I can do when the front goes by and move a little moisture your way later.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26130
529. LargoFl
2:46 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
528. Skyepony (Mod)
2:46 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting etxwx:


Could you kindly conjurer up a blob for East Texas, Herr Blobmeister? The last round of precipitation was pretty spotty and we are getting dry again. :)


Gro thinks it's going east...all hail the CMC instead:)...GEOS-5 has a little hope for you too.

click pic & click fwd for loop..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
527. LargoFl
2:44 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Houston area is doing a whole lot better than last year..rain wise..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
526. Bluestorm5
2:44 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Beautiful



Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8009
525. etxwx
2:42 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Looks like it is moving East. I just posted a link.


Could you kindly conjure up a blob for East Texas, Herr Blobmeister? The last round of precipitation was pretty spotty and we are getting dry again. :)
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1482
524. LargoFl
2:42 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
ROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 26.9W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 100SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 750SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 26.9W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 26.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.6N 27.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.7N 29.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.5N 30.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 30.9N 31.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.5N 32.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 120SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 30.0N 34.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 33.0N 35.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 26.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
523. Bobbyweather
2:41 PM GMT on September 24, 2012

Is this because of the technical difficulties?
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
522. LargoFl
2:41 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Tips of the tops of the trees here are turning orange/green from the cold nights, and very few green/orange leaves are falling off. The trees that love to lose their leaves no matter how minor the cold is continue to do so, but are picking up the pace.
This cold snap here could accelerate the leaf dying process, but it will warm back up in coming days so its slow going.
Late October/Early November are prime leaf falling times here since then it is actually cold in the daytime, rather than being 70-80+F
oaks here are starting their drops,next month is really the heaviest time for the leaf drop
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
521. weathermanwannabe
2:41 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Here is the link to the working Polar Goes 8 shot for the big picture:

Link

That mess headed towards Florida is attached to the front and looks like a decent wave has emerged from Africa.



Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9134
520. GeorgiaStormz
2:40 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


Yeah, I havent seen any leaves turn here yet but I know its coming along with the white stuff..(fingers crossed)


Tips of the tops of the trees here are turning orange/green from the cold nights, and very few green/orange leaves are falling off. The trees that love to lose their leaves no matter how minor the cold is continue to do so, but are picking up the pace.
This cold snap here could accelerate the leaf dying process, but it will warm back up in coming days so its slow going.
Late October/Early November are prime leaf falling times here since then it is actually cold in the daytime, rather than being 70-80 F


It was 43F at swim practice this morning....I was not pleased....
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
519. Skyepony (Mod)
2:39 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Looks like it is moving East. I just posted a link.


Half think this one is gonna head back west after it breaks free of the front tail. FL gets to taste it first.. But like I said..it's really a bit premature to be calling it now.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
518. LargoFl
2:39 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
HE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WFO MIAMI, FL HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE FISHEATING CREEK NEAR PALMDALE
* FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
* AT 8PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS...7.2 FEET
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 7.2 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME MON TUE WED

LAKE OKEECHOBEE/FISHEATING CREEK
PALMDALE
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
517. GeoffreyWPB
2:38 PM GMT on September 24, 2012


For West Palm Beach...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
516. washingtonian115
2:38 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


Yeah, I havent seen any leaves turn here yet but I know its coming along with the white stuff..(fingers crossed)
I think like 2/3rds of the nation
is crossing their fingers for snow.You see the damage that can be done when we have lack of it.It also helps our fresh water supply.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
515. LargoFl
2:37 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
just alot of rain in the gulf........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
514. GeorgiaStormz
2:36 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
The Autumnal Equinox:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
513. etxwx
2:36 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Million displaced by floods in India: officials
Agence France-Presse
7:25 pm | Monday, September 24th, 2012
GUWAHATI, India—Devastating floods have forced more than one million people to flee their homes in northeastern India where authorities have called a health alert, officials said on Monday. “So far 18 of 27 districts of Assam have been hit by floods with more than one million displaced and 11 people drowned in separate incidents in the past week,” the Disaster Management agency said in a statement.

Rescue officials said around 2,000 villages have been hit by overflowing waters from the rain-swollen Brahmaputra river. Himanta Biswa Sarmah, the health minister of Assam state, told AFP that a “maximum health alert” has been sounded in the devastated zone. The victims have moved to temporary shelters on higher grounds in Assam where flood waters have also swamped wide swathes of farmland, other officials said.


Villagers wade through floodwaters in Lachi Bishnupur village, about 65 kilometers west of Gauhati, India, Saturday, Sept. 22, 2012. Devastating floods have forced more than one million people to flee their homes in northeastern India where authorities have called a health alert, officials said on Monday. AP PHOTO/ANUPAM NATH
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512. LargoFl
2:35 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
511. Skyepony (Mod)
2:35 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Nadine..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
510. LargoFl
2:34 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Beautiful fall day here in WPB
78
Humidity77%
Wind SpeedNW 10 mph
good to hear that,you folks had some nasty weather there for awhile huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
509. Grothar
2:33 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:


I could see this getting tagged as an invest today.

I wanna say atleast a TS for TX but it's really a little early for all that..


Looks like it is moving East. I just posted a link.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26130
508. SFLWeatherman
2:33 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Beautiful fall day here in WPB
78
Humidity77%
Wind SpeedNW 10 mph
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507. GeoffreyWPB
2:32 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
506. Grothar
2:31 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Link to animated Gulf moisture field.


Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26130
505. Skyepony (Mod)
2:31 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Tropical moisture in the GOM moving east with signicant





I could see this getting tagged as an invest today.

I wanna say atleast a TS for TX but it's really a little early for all that..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
504. Skyepony (Mod)
2:29 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
503. Grothar
2:28 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Tropical moisture in the GOM moving east with signicant



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26130
502. KarinK
2:25 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
OK, thnx! She made a nice twist :-)

The eastern islands suffer heavy rains due to an African system, but the gouvernment maintains the alarm in the western islands for the "posible coming" of Nadine. Probably they also don't like the combination of the two.

Quoting aspectre:
455 KarinK: Nadine is reaching the other bank and is heading towards Canary Islands. Since yesterday we have a weather alarm and today the police closed some west coast beaches at La Palma. Yesterday we had a short stormy period but since then it's quiet.

Nadine had been headed toward the Canaries. While you probably felt some of its outer bands yesterday, and may still be feeling its storm waves and associated rip currents, Nadine has looped over its previous path and is heading in the direction of NovaScotia again

YAW-Halifax :: CVU-Corvo :: SPC-LasPalmas ::

The top dot on the kinked line is the northernmost position reached by Nadine
The bottom dot on the kinked line is Nadine's most recent position
Member Since: January 9, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
501. ncstorm
2:23 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
I know.I woke up to lows in the upper 40's to low 50's.Supopose to be in the low 70's today.But this chick ain't complaining.The leaves have been responding to the temps as well.And with over night lows in the 40's and 50's some trees have turned orange and red.Leaves have been falling off and I may have to rake earlier this year.


Yeah, I havent seen any leaves turn here yet but I know its coming along with the white stuff..(fingers crossed)
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500. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:20 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
499. Grothar
2:20 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26130
498. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:18 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Link
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497. AussieStorm
2:17 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting etxwx:

Let's hope it's not a wooden replica given the termites taste for all things Marcos... ;-)

I have read it's made of wax.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
496. Grothar
2:17 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26130
495. AussieStorm
2:17 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Forecast models for Jelawat and TD19W

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
494. washingtonian115
2:15 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning Everyone! Beautiful fall day here on the coast of NC. It dont get no better than this!
I know.I woke up to lows in the upper 40's to low 50's.Supopose to be in the low 70's today.But this chick ain't complaining.The leaves have been responding to the temps as well.And with over night lows in the 40's and 50's some trees have turned orange and red.Leaves have been falling off and I may have to rake earlier this year.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
493. etxwx
2:15 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

I have seen a lot of the historic places on Luzon Island, Philippines, including the Marcos museum which has Ferdinand Marcos body embalmed and displayed in a glass box. Photograph is prohibited in that part of the museum. Rumor has it, the body is not real, but you didn't hear it from me.

Let's hope it's not a wooden replica given the termites taste for all things Marcos... ;-)
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492. Chicklit
2:13 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


yeah i linked to this on here a few days ago, wonder what is causing it.

GOES-13 having some probs up there.
Hit some debris?


dunno GASZ
maybe it ran into some of this..
Link Huge Defunct Satellite Falling to Earth Faster Than Expected, NASA Says

6.5 tons headed for earth on 9/23 give or take a few days.

"UARS satellite carries no toxic propellant (NASA used up all the fuel in 2005).

The debris is expected to fall over a swath of Earth about 500 miles (804 kilometers) long, NASA officials said."
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.