Nadine is back; Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 typhoon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Nadine is back, like a nasty cold you just can't get rid of. Nadine had moved southeastwards over cool waters on Friday and Saturday, which robbed the storm of its heavy thunderstorms and tropical characteristics. But Nadine wandered back to the west this Sunday morning over slightly warmer waters, allowing the storm to regain its heavy thunderstorms and its name. Steering currents favor a continued westwards motion for Nadine, keeping the storm far enough south of the Azores Islands that they will see only very sporadic rain showers over the next few days. Nadine will likely turn to the north over the middle Atlantic late this week, but will still probably be around a week from now. The storm is not likely to threaten any land areas for at least the next seven days.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine, taken at 9:50 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 storm
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Jelawat put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification, strengthening from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds in just 24 hours. Jelawat is located about 200 miles to the east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm's outer spiral bands are bringing moderate rains to the eastern Philippines. Jelawat is expected to move slowly to the north-northwest to northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, through Tuesday. The predicted path is far enough from the Philippines to spare the islands the kind of torrential rains capable of causing major flooding. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, and Jelawat is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content of over 100 KJ/cm^2, which is exceptionally high. These favorable conditions for intensification have prompted the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to predict that Jelawat will become a Category 5 typhoon by Monday. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organzied typhoon with a large symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. There remains a huge uncertainty on where Jelawat might go. The computer models fall into two distinct camps, 350 miles apart, for Jelawat's 3-day position. The models are even more divergent--700 miles apart--for the storm's 5-day position. The more westward solution provided by our two top models, the ECMWF and GFS, is the one currently depicted in the official Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast. Given the large spread in models, the 3 - 5 day forecast for Jelawat is low-confidence.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Jelawat taken at 4:32 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropical Storm Miriam in the Eastern Pacific growing more organized
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam appears poised to put on a burst of rapid intensification that would make it a hurricane on Monday. Our two top models, the GFS and ECMWF, are divergent in their long-range predictions for Miriam. The GFS shows Miriam hitting central Baja on Friday, while the ECMWF keeps the storm offshore, dissipating it a few hundred miles off the Baja coast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting wxchaser97:
This has to be a super typhoon, great eye and eyewall with not signs of an EWRC yet.


I posted on post #106 the upgrade by JTWC to Super Typhoon.
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141. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #14
TYPHOON LAWIN (JELAWAT)
5:00 AM PhST September 24 2012
==================================

Typhoon "LAWIN" continues to intensify over the Philippine sea

At 4:00 AM PhSt, Typhoon Lawin (Jelawat) [948 hPa] located at 13.2°N 128.6°E or 480 km east of Legazpi City has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 4 knots.

Additional Information
=====================

Public Storm Warning Signal is now lowered.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon..

Southwest Monsoon enhanced by the Typhoon will continue to bring moderate to heavy rains in Visayas and Mindanao.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon, and the seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao due to big waves generated by Typhoon "LAWIN".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
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Quoting nigel20:

Hey Gro! Long time no see...there seems to be quite. A bit of rain over western trinidad and northeast Venezuela.


Hello, Nigel. Yes, They are getting wet. We've had about 8 inches of rain here in the past two days.
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This has to be a super typhoon, great eye and eyewall with not signs of an EWRC yet.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7959
Wow...Jelawat! What a name though for a storm that is potent...LOL

Meanwhile...I've done 2 blog posts in the last 2 days that give more detailed info on how Nadine became subtropical...non-tropical...then tropical all over again. Its a little more info than Dr. M provides above. Read the Nadine special feature sections of these two posts for all the details. Hopefully...this can show you the differences between a tropical...subtropical...and non-tropical cyclone...but feel free to ask questions. I'll be back later to answer...

Blog post made in last hour...
Blog post made yesterday afternoon..
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Quoting Thing342:


Jelawat: The jelwat (jw), also known as the jello-watt, is a unit of power, referring to the amount of energy transformed by a wobbling jello desert. It is derived from the watt (joules per second), but is not an official SI unit. It is calculated by the formula (J*A/S), with J representing joules (newton-meter), A representing the surface area of the gelatin desert, and S representing the time in seconds. One jelawat is equal to a gelatin desert with a surface area of one wobbling from the energy of one joule for a second.


A gelatin desert?? Sounds much more appealing that the normal dry, barren deserts. Also, how does one giggle a gelatin desert?? Like an earthquake??

Remember, dessert gets two s's because it's special and tasty. ;)
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Quoting Grothar:

Hey Gro! Long time no see...there seems to be quite. A bit of rain over western trinidad and northeast Venezuela.
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I'd say 135 knots.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
Good afternoon Nigel.I was just informed what the meaning meant.Isn't it irnonic that it is a fish and fish come from the sea..well so do T.C's.And Jelawat appears to hate land goers.
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Quoting sullivanweather:
Had to post it again, cause it's just too tempting.

Photobucket



You did not have too repost it
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


most of the chosen names are animals/plant/landmarks/male or female names/mythological.

Jelawat is a type of fish
It is also the name of a village in Malaysia, the source of the name.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 441
Quoting washingtonian115:
This is how I pronounce Jelawat Jee-la-waat.What the hell type name is that anyway?.Maybe it just sounds really strange to us westerners.

hey wash! Maybe it has a meaning...
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127. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting washingtonian115:
This is how I pronounce Jelawat Jee-la-waat.What the hell type name is that anyway?.Maybe it just sounds really strange to us westerners.


most of the chosen names are animals/plant/landmarks/male or female names/mythological.

Jelawat is a type of fish
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Quoting wildheron:
Is that anything like "foot in mouth" disease? (which occasionally shows up in the blog!) back to lurking....


Ocassionally?? Sometimes a few only open their mouths just to change feet. Although I made a few good boo boos this week.
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Quoting sullivanweather:
Had to post it again, cause it's just too tempting.

Photobucket


Jelawat: The jelwat (jw), also known as the jello-watt, is a unit of power, referring to the amount of energy transformed by a wobbling jello desert. It is derived from the watt (joules per second), but is not an official SI unit. It is calculated by the formula (J*A/S), with J representing joules (newton-meter), A representing the surface area of the gelatin desert, and S representing the time in seconds. One jelawat is equal to a gelatin desert with a surface area of one wobbling from the energy of one joule for a second.
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Moving NNW
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This is how I pronounce Jelawat Jee-la-waat.What the hell type name is that anyway?.Maybe it just sounds really strange to us westerners.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17484
NHC Forecasted Nadine to move W and then NE...

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Good afternoon all! It has been a mostly hot and dry weekend here in Jamaica.
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Twave with ULL for us

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119. atris
Just trying to post an image for the first time seeing the blog is not very busy . hope thats okay !

Most recent satellite image of Nadine from Ramnb


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Nadine

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Had to post it again, cause it's just too tempting.

Photobucket
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Okinawa's gonna get hit again...



Sun will be up in a couple hours:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7948
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2012

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE HAS GRADUALLY WANED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INGESTION
OF SOME DRY AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION AND THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM PERIOD. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 50 KT. NADINE HAD BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD...BUT IS
NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE TURNS NADINE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND SLIDE EASTWARD WHILE A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN 4
TO 5 DAYS. THE NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AS NADINE REMAINS IN MODERATE SHEAR AND OVER MARGINAL
SSTS. IN ADDITION....DRY AIR APPEARS TO HAVE WRAPPED AROUND MUCH
OF THE CIRCULATION AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP. ONE POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS FOR NADINE TO NOT
REGAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL ONCE AGAIN.
THE NHC FORECAST ASSUMES NADINE WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A MORE
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF WARMER SSTS...LESS SHEAR...AND SLIGHTLY
MORE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT IS THE SAME AS THE EARLIER FORECAST BY DAY 5.
THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...BUT IS CLOSE TO
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 31.0N 26.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 31.2N 26.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 31.5N 28.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 31.7N 29.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 31.6N 31.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 30.9N 32.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 31.0N 34.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 33.5N 37.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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...NADINE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 23
Location: 31.0°N 26.1°W
Moving: WNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 986 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

...MIRIAM NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
2:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 23
Location: 16.1°N 110.5°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7959
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2012

MIRIAM APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. THE CYCLONE IS
MAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH COLD CLOUD TOP
TEMPEATURES. A 1554 UTC SSMIS PASS SHOWED A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
EYE...AND A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL RING OF CONVECTION WAS EVIDENT IN AN
EARLIER WINDSAT PASS. IN ADDITION...TIGHTLY COILED BANDS DOMINATE
THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE AT 3.5
AND 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND UW-CIMSS ADT CI
VALUES ARE AT 4.4. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE ABOVE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 60 KT.

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE HEADING HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. A LONGER-TERM
AVERAGE OF FIXES SUGGESTS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/08.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION AS
MIRIAM ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH ARE EXPECTED FROM 48-96 HOURS AS
MIRIAM MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS ALONG 115W...CREATED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE LATTER PART
OF THE FORECAST PARTIALLY HINGES ON THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO FORM WEST OR NORTHWEST OF
MIRIAM. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS STILL RATHER SIGNIFICANT...
ESPECIALLY BEYOND 96 HOURS...BUT LITTLE CHANGE IS NOTED BETWEEN
THIS CYCLE AND THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS ON THE RIGHT
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS.

MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIROMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION COULD POTENTIALLY BE RAPID AS INDICATED BY THE
SHIPS RI INDEX. IN 2-3 DAYS...MIRIAM SHOULD CROSS THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS AND SHOULD ALSO INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CYCLONE. AN INCREASE IN SHEAR RELATED TO
THE ABOVE FACTORS AND GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS SHOULD PROMOTE
WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY
PERIOD...WITH EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF MIRIAM DECOUPLING ENTIRELY AS
DEPICTED BY ECMWF. A CRITICAL ELEMENT OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST
COULD BE THE LONGITUDE WHERE MIRIAM TURNS NORTHWARD...SINCE THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE CYCLONE WITH RESPECT TO A STRONG GRADIENT IN
SSTS COULD DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS AND IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 16.1N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 16.8N 111.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 17.9N 113.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 18.7N 114.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 19.4N 115.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 20.7N 115.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 22.3N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 23.5N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...MIRIAM NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 110.5W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2012

...NADINE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 26.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
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Quoting wxchaser97:

ATCF says Miriam will be a 70mph TS at the next advisory. Hurricane at 11pm probably as she is strengthening still.
I ususally don't use ATCF for intensity, because it's often off by +- 5 kt.
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Quoting Thing342:
Should be a hurricane at the next advisory.


Probably not in the next advisory, but maybe later tonight.
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Quoting Thing342:
Should be a hurricane at the next advisory.

ATCF says Miriam will be a 70mph TS at the next advisory. Hurricane at 11pm probably as she is strengthening still.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7959
JTWC upgrades to SuperTyphoon at 130kts. Peaks at 140kts.

WTPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 13.1N 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 128.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.3N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.5N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.7N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.9N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.9N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.8N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.3N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 128.5E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 31
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//
NNNN

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Quoting Civicane49:
Miriam:

Should be a hurricane at the next advisory.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 441
Well, I'm definitely sick of football for a long time. I now resume attention towards the pretty swirly things across the planet. :D

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Miriam:

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mojosoon..
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4891
May be interesting to see what evolves if anything from what the San Juan NWS talks about a broad surface trough in the Central Caribbean.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY
OF A WET/ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STAY TUNED.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nadine is still over Sea Surface Temperatures of 25.5C-26.5C. As it moves westward, ocean temperatures will steadily increase, and Nadine should become a hurricane. Don't expect it to change much over the next day and a half or so though.


Shear will begin to decrease as well giving Nadine to opportunity to strengthen into a hurricane. I believe she will be able to do that, only to a cat1.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7959

I noted that the navy site has. Typhoon Jelawat at 130kt
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Miriam needs love too, still organizing nicely.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7959
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nadine is still over Sea Surface Temperatures of 25.5C-26.5C. As it moves westward, ocean temperatures will steadily increase, and Nadine should become a hurricane. Don't expect it to change much over the next day and a half or so though.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
Quoting indianrivguy:


I've had foot in mouth before...


I have been afflicted with that before :)
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Quoting Grothar:


What about hoof and mouth disease?
Is that anything like "foot in mouth" disease? (which occasionally shows up in the blog!) back to lurking....
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Quoting UKHWatcher:


As many of you will know, the UK Beef industry stuttered and nearly folded in ten years following the BSE Crisis... Let's hope them cow brains and spines get properly boiled!


Ewwww, yuck, ugh, okay you will force me to have an early beer with talk such as that :)
It is currently fair, 88 degree, and only 55% hummidity here in Madeira Beach.
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Quoting Grothar:


We had a pretty good soaking over the weekend. Heavy thunderstorms and heavy rain. A couple of good ones went over us today. By the way, I see Nadine is moving west. Who would ever have thought it?? :)

Only the Most Cleverest of them all.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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