Nadine is back; Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 typhoon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2012

Share this Blog
37
+

Tropical Storm Nadine is back, like a nasty cold you just can't get rid of. Nadine had moved southeastwards over cool waters on Friday and Saturday, which robbed the storm of its heavy thunderstorms and tropical characteristics. But Nadine wandered back to the west this Sunday morning over slightly warmer waters, allowing the storm to regain its heavy thunderstorms and its name. Steering currents favor a continued westwards motion for Nadine, keeping the storm far enough south of the Azores Islands that they will see only very sporadic rain showers over the next few days. Nadine will likely turn to the north over the middle Atlantic late this week, but will still probably be around a week from now. The storm is not likely to threaten any land areas for at least the next seven days.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine, taken at 9:50 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 storm
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Jelawat put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification, strengthening from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds in just 24 hours. Jelawat is located about 200 miles to the east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm's outer spiral bands are bringing moderate rains to the eastern Philippines. Jelawat is expected to move slowly to the north-northwest to northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, through Tuesday. The predicted path is far enough from the Philippines to spare the islands the kind of torrential rains capable of causing major flooding. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, and Jelawat is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content of over 100 KJ/cm^2, which is exceptionally high. These favorable conditions for intensification have prompted the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to predict that Jelawat will become a Category 5 typhoon by Monday. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organzied typhoon with a large symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. There remains a huge uncertainty on where Jelawat might go. The computer models fall into two distinct camps, 350 miles apart, for Jelawat's 3-day position. The models are even more divergent--700 miles apart--for the storm's 5-day position. The more westward solution provided by our two top models, the ECMWF and GFS, is the one currently depicted in the official Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast. Given the large spread in models, the 3 - 5 day forecast for Jelawat is low-confidence.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Jelawat taken at 4:32 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropical Storm Miriam in the Eastern Pacific growing more organized
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam appears poised to put on a burst of rapid intensification that would make it a hurricane on Monday. Our two top models, the GFS and ECMWF, are divergent in their long-range predictions for Miriam. The GFS shows Miriam hitting central Baja on Friday, while the ECMWF keeps the storm offshore, dissipating it a few hundred miles off the Baja coast.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 192 - 142

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11Blog Index

Quoting Grothar:


Yes, stay inside.


I learned that when I lived in St. Olaf a few years ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


I think we're safe TA. I recently heard that the plot to spray us with aluminum was foiled.


However, I did read they were still making hats.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...I see what you did there.


You're just getting too sharp for me, TA.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26414
Quoting Dakster:


Gro - Got any way to get out us out of the CONSTANT rain...


Yes, stay inside.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26414
Miriam is looking good.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, Jelawat may be even better looking than Sanba was.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For Miriam:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 SEP 2012 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 16:11:11 N Lon : 110:38:21 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 977.3mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 3.6

Center Temp : -76.7C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nadine just keeps plodding along - Jelawat spins in the West.



88 Giorni Days till Winter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Miriam is our forgotten storm.



It's probably at about 80mph right now.

I haven't forgot her, she is probably at 75-80mph. Still building her eyewall more but definitely strengthening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The 18z GFS showed that same NE storm the 12z Euro showed. Same time too.



This run didn't have the SW Caribbean development that 12z showed. Let's see what the 00z run brings.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Miriam is our forgotten storm.



It's probably at about 80mph right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


I think we're safe TA. I recently heard that the plot to spray us with aluminum was foiled.

Lol Gro, we won't have to be an alumiman now.

Getting some showers again today, I'm in a fall pattern for the time being.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jelawat is looking beautiful.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Concentric eyewalls, the new eye should be beautiful when its finished:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The 18z GFS showed that same NE storm the 12z Euro showed. Same time too.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting icmoore:


LOL!! :)))


oops must stay on topic....LOL in sunny Florida :))
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


I think we're safe TA. I recently heard that the plot to spray us with aluminum was foiled.


LOL!! :)))
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


I think we're safe TA. I recently heard that the plot to spray us with aluminum was foiled.

...I see what you did there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Alumnicumuli clouds. They're formed when the government secretly injects aluminum within the environment. It's obviously proof of weather modification.


I think we're safe TA. I recently heard that the plot to spray us with aluminum was foiled.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26414
Quoting caneswatch:


C'mon Taz, lighten up :)


If you look at his comment count...99.1% of those are complaining about someone elses post. He is the slef-appointed blog police...even though he clutters more than any off topic post does :P

Anyway, what's been on my mind...I really REALLY want Nadiine to swing down and head off where she started from and make a full secong loop!! I know, won't happen, but would be cool. I would really like her to break the longest storm record, just cause...I don't like ANY record set before modern equipment, it is all suspect IMHO.

I showed my daughter the storm history for Jelawat (oh Wash, I prefer the more exotic names!) and when shown the RI compared to the storm history of Nadine...al she could say was 'Ummm, NO!' I know it's pretty much a fact of life there, but geesh.

And anyone huffy about what I said about Taz, I don't really care, he's as much a troll as a troll and has always annoyed me even more than the trolls with his incessant whining and his obvious knows best for the blog attitude (not that I'm the first to say such). The odd silly post does no one any harm or hog anymore bandwidth than repeated postings of the same sat images (or his neverending complaining of anything remotely off topic when he's on)..and this is coming from someone who has no landline internet, so very limited bandwidth and who has no allegience with anyone on the forum otherwise...a semi-lurkers view, untainted by friendships otherwise.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Chemtrails or entrails.


Gro - Got any way to get out us out of the CONSTANT rain...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning Jelawat, you are looking fancy this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
168. beell
Quoting Grothar:


Chemtrails or entrails.


lol. maybe they're de tails.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:
Gee, what kind of clouds are those on the N, W and S of Nadine?


Alumnicumuli clouds. They're formed when the government secretly injects aluminum within the environment. It's obviously proof of weather modification.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:
Gee, what kind of clouds are those on the N, W and S of Nadine?



Chemtrails or entrails.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26414
165. beell
Gee, what kind of clouds are those on the N, W and S of Nadine?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sullivanweather:
Had to post it again, cause it's just too tempting.

Photobucket


Jelawat is a type of fish... I know it better by a more American Name of 'river carp'
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
To hear people on this forum, apparently the NHC spends half the time declaring things they shouldn't (because they obviously earn huge cash bonuses based on the number of storms they track in a given year), and the other half of the time not declaring things they should (because they obviously don't want to scare people, or something).

I really wish they'd get their act together; it's terribly difficult to know which bit of stat manipulation to accuse them of, and when...

:\

Haven't you realized it yet, Nea? The people that visit this blog as recently-graduated college students with low-paying jobs know much, much more than the specialists at the National Hurricane Center that spend hours coordinating forecasts and analyzing the storm and surrounding conditions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneswatch:


When don't they pad the stats?
To hear people on this forum, apparently the NHC spends half the time declaring things they shouldn't (because they obviously earn huge cash bonuses based on the number of storms they track in a given year), and the other half of the time not declaring things they should (because they obviously don't want to scare people, or something).

I really wish they'd get their act together; it's tough to know which type of stat manipulation to accuse them of, and when...

:\
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Taiwan should prepare again...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Sun rises over Jello-watt:

Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Good morning Jelawat.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Walshy:
NHC padding the stats again I see...Nadine is not a tropical storm.

They are padding the Ace.


I wasn't aware a 60mph tropical storm was going to add significant ACE to the seasonal total.

Relax, the NHC will hold or put down Nadine to 50mph. Once again, you guys put way, way, way too much emphasis on a 1-3 hour trend in convection with full knowledge that systems wax and wane in convection for a variety of reasons. This is why, no offense to anyone, that we're always wrong when we see a system fading in convection significantly and automatically assume 'yup, it's dead, why are they wanting to pad the numbers with this piece of trash?' and then, you guys get slapped in the face with something like Hurricane Michael earlier this month. The NHC always waits 6-8 hours to declare something dead, just like they always wait 6-8 hours declare something a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone. It's simple consistency that usually pays off, as tropical cyclones are resilient little buggers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What's this?

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2012

...NADINE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 26.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

I half expect them to declare it post tropical at 11, but for the sake of consistency I have a feeling they'll keep it... They shouldn't though, it's gonna have to suffer along for the next 1-2 days and if it's still alive after that then it may regenerate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Walshy:
NHC padding the stats again I see...Nadine is not a tropical storm.

They are padding the Ace.


When don't they pad the stats?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Nadine is not a tropical cyclone right now. It may become one in a couple of days but right now it is not.


What's this?

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2012

...NADINE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 26.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



You did not have too repost it


C'mon Taz, lighten up :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC padding the stats again I see...Nadine is not a tropical storm.

They are padding the Ace.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Read in a book called Deke! by Astronaut Deke Slayton that during WW2 when he was stationed out in Okinawa with Army Air corps in 1945 when a Super Typhoon hit. Apparently they where living out in tents made of bamboo that holds up fairly well in high winds. The commanding officer stationed there didn't believe that was true and had a tent re-enforced with metal. Sure enough when the typhoon hit the bamboo tents held strong but the CO's tent went flying, I found that story rather amusing. So Okinawa is more than prepared now to handle two typhoons in one month.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nadine is not a tropical cyclone right now. It may become one in a couple of days but right now it is not.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Come on Nadine you can do it. All you need to do is to stay aliv during the next 2 days and then warmer SST's and lower shear will help you strengthen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
147. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Depression "19W"

2012SEP23
210100
3.0 CI
991.0 estimated pressure
2.6 Initial T No.
3.0 Adjusted T No.
3.0 Raw T No.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I posted on post #106 the upgrade by JTWC to Super Typhoon.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is.

Oh, lol, I hadn't checked that in awhile since I was busy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
144. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTPQ20 BABJ 232100 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY JELAWAT 1217 (1217) INITIAL TIME 232100 UTC
00HR 13.3N 128.7E 920HPA 60M/S

30KTS 300KM
50KTS 130KM
P12HR NNW 10KM/H
P+24HR 15.6N 127.6E 910HPA 65M/S (130 knots)
P+48HR 17.4N 126.2E 920HPA 60M/S
P+72HR 19.1N 124.5E 935HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 21.6N 123.0E 940HPA 52M/S
P+120HR 24.1N 123.0E 945HPA 50M/S=
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
This has to be a super typhoon, great eye and eyewall with not signs of an EWRC yet.

It is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
This has to be a super typhoon, great eye and eyewall with not signs of an EWRC yet.


I posted on post #106 the upgrade by JTWC to Super Typhoon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 192 - 142

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.