Nadine is back; Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 typhoon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Nadine is back, like a nasty cold you just can't get rid of. Nadine had moved southeastwards over cool waters on Friday and Saturday, which robbed the storm of its heavy thunderstorms and tropical characteristics. But Nadine wandered back to the west this Sunday morning over slightly warmer waters, allowing the storm to regain its heavy thunderstorms and its name. Steering currents favor a continued westwards motion for Nadine, keeping the storm far enough south of the Azores Islands that they will see only very sporadic rain showers over the next few days. Nadine will likely turn to the north over the middle Atlantic late this week, but will still probably be around a week from now. The storm is not likely to threaten any land areas for at least the next seven days.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine, taken at 9:50 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 storm
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Jelawat put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification, strengthening from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds in just 24 hours. Jelawat is located about 200 miles to the east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm's outer spiral bands are bringing moderate rains to the eastern Philippines. Jelawat is expected to move slowly to the north-northwest to northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, through Tuesday. The predicted path is far enough from the Philippines to spare the islands the kind of torrential rains capable of causing major flooding. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, and Jelawat is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content of over 100 KJ/cm^2, which is exceptionally high. These favorable conditions for intensification have prompted the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to predict that Jelawat will become a Category 5 typhoon by Monday. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organzied typhoon with a large symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. There remains a huge uncertainty on where Jelawat might go. The computer models fall into two distinct camps, 350 miles apart, for Jelawat's 3-day position. The models are even more divergent--700 miles apart--for the storm's 5-day position. The more westward solution provided by our two top models, the ECMWF and GFS, is the one currently depicted in the official Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast. Given the large spread in models, the 3 - 5 day forecast for Jelawat is low-confidence.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Jelawat taken at 4:32 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropical Storm Miriam in the Eastern Pacific growing more organized
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam appears poised to put on a burst of rapid intensification that would make it a hurricane on Monday. Our two top models, the GFS and ECMWF, are divergent in their long-range predictions for Miriam. The GFS shows Miriam hitting central Baja on Friday, while the ECMWF keeps the storm offshore, dissipating it a few hundred miles off the Baja coast.

Jeff Masters

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I guess Micheal has risen to fame.Especially if he becomes this year's only Major in the Atlantic.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Miriam is now an 85mph hurricane.

EP, 13, 2012092400, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1109W, 75, 983, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 1009, 240, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MIRIAM, M,



ATCF is not official. Do we have to teach you a lesson like we did Cody? :P
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 582 Comments: 20773
Quoting KoritheMan:


I want it to. Tired of seeing the east and west Pacific so dead.

I know the eastern Pacific is dead, I want a major there too, but I don't think the western Pacific is dead.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting Civicane49:
I would not be surprised if Miriam briefly reaches major hurricane strength by tomorrow. The eye is beginning to develop, and the inner core is becoming better defined. The cyclone may be undergoing rapid intensification now, and environmental conditions appear favorable for the next 24 hours.



I want it to. Tired of seeing the east and west Pacific so dead.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 582 Comments: 20773
Jelawat still has the pinhole going, when will that change. Looking really good still and strengthening may continue further.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting LostTomorrows:


Ahem...

Storm: Sanba. Jelawat is nothing special in comparison.
Sanba sounds like a Disney character. Jelawat....thats a name!! People cringe at the sound of it.
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I would not be surprised if Miriam briefly reaches major hurricane strength by tomorrow. The eye is beginning to develop, and the inner core is becoming better defined. The cyclone may be undergoing rapid intensification now, and environmental conditions appear favorable for the next 24 hours.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The secondary peak in October is still ahead and that may be the last chance to get another one but so far the models are not showing anything.However long range GFS has hinted about something in the SW Caribbean but goes back and forth on development.
I said is possible not written in stone.But conditions in the caribbean haven't been all to nice to T.C's this year(those people that live down there are happy to hear that) and they sure aren't going to change anytime soon.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

That is possible, but it is also possible that we get a Rina-like storm in the Caribbean.
unless we get a cat 4 in October or November or if Nadine pull us and strength to that intensity which I doubt,it would be the fist time since 2006 to not have a hurricane in the entire season to achieve that status.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4400
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Am I being deceived by that eye-looking thing there on sat.

No you are not, an eye is starting to form.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting washingtonian115:
The Atlantic is sucking.It's possible Micheal could be our only Major hurricane we get this year.


The secondary peak in October is still ahead and that may be the last chance to get another one but so far the models are not showing anything.However long range GFS has hinted about something in the SW Caribbean but goes back and forth on development.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14308
Quoting wxchaser97:
Miriam is now an 85mph hurricane.

EP, 13, 2012092400, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1109W, 75, 983, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 1009, 240, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MIRIAM, M,

may be our next major if she continue strengthtening like that.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4400
Quoting washingtonian115:
The Atlantic is sucking.It's possible Micheal could be our only Major hurricane we get this year.

That is possible, but it is also possible that we get a Rina-like storm in the Caribbean.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting wxchaser97:
Miriam is now an 85mph hurricane.

EP, 13, 2012092400, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1109W, 75, 983, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 1009, 240, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MIRIAM, M,



Am I being deceived by that eye-looking thing there on sat.
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The Atlantic is sucking.It's possible Micheal could be our only Major hurricane we get this year.
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Quoting goalexgo:
NHC EMMY AWARDS 2012

Forecaster- Stewart

Runner Up- Avila

Storm- Jelawat

Runner Up- Isaac

Lifetime Achievement Award- Jose

Model- GFS

Worst Model- PLANFALF

Best Comments- Skypony

Hon. Mention- Grothar


Ahem...

Storm: Sanba. Jelawat is nothing special in comparison.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Stratospheric Winds Churn Up the Abyss

by Charles Choi on 23 September 2012, 1:00 PM


High in the stratosphere, a vortex of winds is spinning, and that lofty swirling eddy might stir the ocean depths. New supercomputer simulations suggest that the stratospheric vortex of winds helps churn the oceans around the planet - and therefore also might help shape global climate, the researchers say.

http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2012/09/str atospheric-winds-churn-up-the.html?ref=hp

Every 2 years on average, they found, the stratosphere suddenly warms by several tens of degrees Celsius. During these events, a polar vortex of up-to-130-kilometer-per-hour stratospheric winds encircling the Arctic can weaken or change direction (from counterclockwise to clockwise around the North Pole) for up to 2 months. The simulations suggest that over decades, these warming events dramatically perturb the ocean surface, affecting the flow of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a system of currents that acts like a conveyor belt moving water around the planet.

"The effects from the stratosphere can explain on the order of 30% of the oscillations we find in the ocean," Reichler says. "We found the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has an 'Achilles heel,' a vulnerable spot in the North Atlantic Ocean in the region south of Greenland." That region, he says, is susceptible to even small amounts of warming and cooling from the atmosphere%u2014and how cold the water gets influences how much or how little it sinks, thereby driving or delaying, respectively, the ocean conveyer belt.
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Miriam is now an 85mph hurricane.

EP, 13, 2012092400, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1109W, 75, 983, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 1009, 240, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MIRIAM, M,

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
NHC EMMY AWARDS 2012

Forecaster- Stewart

Runner Up- Avila

Storm- Jelawat

Runner Up- Isaac

Lifetime Achievement Award- Jose

Model- GFS

Worst Model- PLANFALF

Best Comments- Skypony

Hon. Mention- Grothar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:


Should be a hurricane in the next advisory.

She will be, she looks too good not to be one.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
EP, 13, 2012092400, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1109W, 75, 983, HU


ATCF says Miriam is a hurricane with 85 mph.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Miriam up to 75kts.

EP, 13, 2012092400, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1109W, 75, 983, HU
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14308
I forgot it's 5:36pm on the west coast.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Miriam is becoming a formidable storm:





Miriam should be a hurricane in the next advisory.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
She is doing RI now.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14308
Miriam will be upgraded to a hurricane at 8pm PDT.

24/0000 UTC 16.6N 110.9W T4.5/4.5 MIRIAM -- East Pacific
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32251
Miriam is becoming a formidable storm:



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Quoting Grothar:
Convection in the Caribbean is half of what is was an hour ago.




Must be dry air...but water temps are ROCKET FUEL!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11257
Quoting Grothar:
Convection in the Caribbean is half of what is was an hour ago.



LOOOOOOOL.
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Probably just not blogging since not a whole lot of threatening action in the Atlantic right now.
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I see what you did there Grothar... cute.
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Quoting Grothar:


Tight little thing, isn't it?



It appears to be.

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Convection in the Caribbean is half of what is was an hour ago.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26418
Quoting Autistic2:
For those more knowledge than me.

Is the season over for the cont. US?

Did something happen to Levi?


There was talk a few days ago about a young blogger with Aspers needing to learn manners.

Take it from me, Manners can be learned but it takes time. After 50 years I am still working on it. We simpley dont think like most people do.

I point this out so that you might understand the young blogger better and correct them with compassion.


College maybe ?
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208. beell
AMSU-A Brightness Anomaly Cross Sections for Nadine.
A satellite's attempt to quantify the "warmth" of the storm center environment compared to its surroundings.


14:52Z, 15:51Z, and 18:39Z, top to bottom. Maybe trending towards a cooler core, maybe not.





AMSU Homepage
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16718
Quoting Autistic2:
For those more knowledge than me.

Is the season over for the cont. US?

Did something happen to Levi?


There was talk a few days ago about a young blogger with Aspers needing to learn manners.

Take it from me, Manners can be learned but it takes time. After 50 years I am still working on it. We simpley dont think like most people do.

I point this out so that you might understand the young blogger better and correct them with compassion.


lol, Levi doesn't have Aspergers.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 582 Comments: 20773
Quoting Walshy:
NHC padding the stats again I see...Nadine is not a tropical storm.

They are padding the Ace.


It'd be more productive if you actually brought your conspiracy theory to the organization in question.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 582 Comments: 20773
For those more knowledge than me.

Is the season over for the cont. US?

Did something happen to Levi?


There was talk a few days ago about a young blogger with Aspers needing to learn manners.

Take it from me, Manners can be learned but it takes time. After 50 years I am still working on it. We simpley dont think like most people do.

I point this out so that you might understand the young blogger better and correct them with compassion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi -

The humidity and heat right now in the Florida Keys would make a Turkish bath jealous. Please send us a cool front. - thank you.

From the current discussion in Key West NWS

JUST IGNORING PERSISTENCE FOR A MOMENT...WE LOOK ON A POSITIVE NOTE
TO CLIMATOLOGY WHICH TELLS US THAT THE MESOSCALE CONTRIBUTION TO
RAINFALL CHANCES USUALLY BEGINS TO DECREASE AS WE ENTER THE LAST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER AND INTO OCTOBER. ONE IMPORTANT REASON FOR THIS
HAS TO DO WITH THE LESSENING CONTRIBUTION OF DAYTIME SOLAR
INSOLATION. UPON THE ARRIVAL OF THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX...THE
CONTRIBUTION OF SOLAR INSOLATION BEGINS TO LESSEN AT OUR LATITUDE.
WE ARE ENTERING THE LAST PART OF THE WET SEASON.
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Nadine has lived for 12 days now... If it keeps this up we could be looking at up to a month at the extreme maximum with Nadine.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Grrrrrr. Why can't it be January?



That's like the most textbook Nor'easter track ever.
I feel your pain.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


In spite of appearances, the radius of hurricane winds is actually smaller than Andrew.


Tight little thing, isn't it?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26418
Grrrrrr. Why can't it be January?



That's like the most textbook Nor'easter track ever.
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199. beell
Forecast sounding from the 18Z GFS-valid this evening. From the Azores.

With a strong inversion (marine layer?) (temp increase w/height)and very dry air.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16718
Quoting Grothar:
Jelawat

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.5N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

Wow, those gusts may be up to near 200 pmh.


In spite of appearances, the radius of hurricane winds is actually smaller than Andrew.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The 18z GFS showed that same NE storm the 12z Euro showed. Same time too.

Wow!.I could care less if the hurricane season ends today.Seems I'm gonna get some interesting weather in my back yard!.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I learned that when I lived in St. Olaf a few years ago.


But they did that in St. Gustav first.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26418
Jelawat

24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.5N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

Wow, those gusts may be up to near 200 pmh.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26418
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


NOAA at work....


From
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweatherga ng/2008/10/hurricane_calamity.html

I think that is how they deploy dropsondes as well:)
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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