Nadine is back; Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 typhoon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Nadine is back, like a nasty cold you just can't get rid of. Nadine had moved southeastwards over cool waters on Friday and Saturday, which robbed the storm of its heavy thunderstorms and tropical characteristics. But Nadine wandered back to the west this Sunday morning over slightly warmer waters, allowing the storm to regain its heavy thunderstorms and its name. Steering currents favor a continued westwards motion for Nadine, keeping the storm far enough south of the Azores Islands that they will see only very sporadic rain showers over the next few days. Nadine will likely turn to the north over the middle Atlantic late this week, but will still probably be around a week from now. The storm is not likely to threaten any land areas for at least the next seven days.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine, taken at 9:50 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 storm
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Jelawat put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification, strengthening from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds in just 24 hours. Jelawat is located about 200 miles to the east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm's outer spiral bands are bringing moderate rains to the eastern Philippines. Jelawat is expected to move slowly to the north-northwest to northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, through Tuesday. The predicted path is far enough from the Philippines to spare the islands the kind of torrential rains capable of causing major flooding. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, and Jelawat is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content of over 100 KJ/cm^2, which is exceptionally high. These favorable conditions for intensification have prompted the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to predict that Jelawat will become a Category 5 typhoon by Monday. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organzied typhoon with a large symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. There remains a huge uncertainty on where Jelawat might go. The computer models fall into two distinct camps, 350 miles apart, for Jelawat's 3-day position. The models are even more divergent--700 miles apart--for the storm's 5-day position. The more westward solution provided by our two top models, the ECMWF and GFS, is the one currently depicted in the official Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast. Given the large spread in models, the 3 - 5 day forecast for Jelawat is low-confidence.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Jelawat taken at 4:32 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropical Storm Miriam in the Eastern Pacific growing more organized
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam appears poised to put on a burst of rapid intensification that would make it a hurricane on Monday. Our two top models, the GFS and ECMWF, are divergent in their long-range predictions for Miriam. The GFS shows Miriam hitting central Baja on Friday, while the ECMWF keeps the storm offshore, dissipating it a few hundred miles off the Baja coast.

Jeff Masters

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292. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:17 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54338
291. KoritheMan
2:16 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

relax... its now a big deal ok.


lol, not trying to make it out to be a big deal. I just like to correct misconceptions/errors. It's how we improve.

If I were mad or taking this the least bit seriously, you would know it. I'm not a pretty sight when I'm angry or irritated. :P
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20821
290. GeoffreyWPB
2:15 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
How 'bouts an uplifting song...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11265
289. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:10 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:

It's just annoying to see people touting it around like it were fact. I made that mistake at one point. Not anymore.

relax... its now a big deal ok.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
288. skycycle
2:07 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Big low off France... Pressure here in Amsterdam is down to 995 at the moment, 4 am...
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 192
287. rare1970
2:04 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Nadine is most likely not going to Africa, but that would be a crazy end to a crazy storm.
I realize I was stretching reality. But with climate change, who knows what the new norms on hurricane tracks will be.
Member Since: July 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
286. beell
2:03 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16726
285. GeoffreyWPB
2:02 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Miriam is reaching 90 mph...maybe 100 now.


She's looking excellent!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11265
284. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:02 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Miriam is reaching 90 mph...maybe 100 now.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
283. wxchaser97
2:00 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Good night everyone, talk to you in the morning. Jelawat is doing an EWRC, Miriam is strengthening, and give Nadine some time to strengthen.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
282. Civicane49
2:00 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
281. GeoffreyWPB
1:56 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11265
280. wxchaser97
1:48 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting rare1970:
This is something different. Now we have storms going into Africa instead of moving off Africa

Nadine is most likely not going to Africa, but that would be a crazy end to a crazy storm.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
279. rare1970
1:44 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
This is something different. Now we have storms going into Africa instead of moving off Africa
Member Since: July 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
278. Civicane49
1:42 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
277. allancalderini
1:42 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I don't think the NHC is trying to pad anything. But I do think they're making a mistake by not declaring Nadine post tropical.

would be cool if Nadine can survive other 15 days.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
276. Civicane49
1:39 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Jelawat:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
275. wxchaser97
1:37 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:

AFRICA'S IN THE BULLSEYE!

Africa is going to be hit by a major!

I think Nadine will really head west.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
274. wxchaser97
1:32 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I don't think the NHC is trying to pad anything. But I do think they're making a mistake by not declaring Nadine post tropical.


I think it is iffy to call it either way, the NHC is probably waiting as better conditions are expected.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
273. KoritheMan
1:31 AM GMT on September 24, 2012

Quoting Civicane49:
AFRICA'S IN THE BULLSEYE!
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20821
272. Civicane49
1:29 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
271. beell
1:29 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:

Careful. They're padding the ACE.




Very impressive, organized deep convection.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16726
270. MAweatherboy1
1:25 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
I don't think the NHC is trying to pad anything. But I do think they're making a mistake by not declaring Nadine post tropical.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7834
269. Civicane49
1:25 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
Oh gosh. Sorry Civic. :S


It's okay Kori. :)
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
268. KoritheMan
1:24 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Oh gosh. Sorry Civic. :S
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20821
267. NCHurricane2009
1:24 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Can someone post an infrared on Nadine (or at least find one)? The NHC satellite webpage has bad imagery...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 493 Comments: 3688
266. KoritheMan
1:23 AM GMT on September 24, 2012

Quoting interstatelover7165:
Nadine infared please
Careful. They're padding the ACE.


Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20821
265. GeoffreyWPB
1:22 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11265
264. Civicane49
1:22 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Nadine infared please




Nadine is currently lacking deep convection in the center.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
263. KoritheMan
1:22 AM GMT on September 24, 2012

Quoting wxchaser97:

Kiddo... gah!

I can change what I say when I post ATCF and try to post mostly NHC, is that ok?
Do whatever you feel the need to do. Kiddo. ;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20821
262. MAweatherboy1
1:22 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
We have a new TD in the West Pac, TD 19W. Track and intensity forecast will be available soon.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7834
261. wxchaser97
1:21 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
Speaking of the western Pacific, my zone manager at Walmart was apparently in the Air Force, and was stationed on Okinawa for two typhoons in 1974. I've meant to look them up, but...

... you were too lazy to:)

That must have been a wild thing to do and be in.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
260. interstatelover7165
1:21 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Nadine infared please
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
259. KoritheMan
1:21 AM GMT on September 24, 2012

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Jelawat's eye has become completely covered now, definitely an EWRC going on based on the concentric eyewalls on microwave.

Seems quite obvious on satellite as well.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20821
258. KoritheMan
1:20 AM GMT on September 24, 2012

Quoting washingtonian115:
The last real season for them over in the western Pacific was 2009..
Guess I forgot about 2009. Oh well.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20821
257. MAweatherboy1
1:20 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Jelawat's eye has become completely covered now, definitely an EWRC going on based on the concentric eyewalls on microwave.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7834
256. KoritheMan
1:19 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Speaking of the western Pacific, my zone manager at Walmart was apparently in the Air Force, and was stationed on Okinawa for two typhoons in 1974. I've meant to look them up, but...
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20821
255. wxchaser97
1:19 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:

Close but no cigar, kiddo.

Kiddo... gah!

I can change what I say when I post ATCF and try to post mostly NHC, is that ok?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
254. Civicane49
1:19 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
253. washingtonian115
1:18 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
The last real season for them over in the western Pacific was 2009..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17074
252. interstatelover7165
1:17 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Quoting goalexgo:
Sanba sounds like a Disney character. Jelawat....thats a name!! People cringe at the sound of it.
Sannba....
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
251. KoritheMan
1:17 AM GMT on September 24, 2012

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Yes, but must of the time unless there is recon or any other factor, the NHC bases on this for a storm intensity...in many cases specially in the east pacific... I think Miriam really is 85 mph but 90 mph is also possible..
It's just annoying to see people touting it around like it were fact. I made that mistake at one point. Not anymore.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20821
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

Quoting wxchaser97:

ATCF is close to official, it depends what the lesson is.
Close but no cigar, kiddo.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20821
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


ATCF is not official. Do we have to teach you a lesson like we did Cody? :P

ATCF is close to official, it depends what the lesson is.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Neither have been particularly dead this year. Obviously I meant in general. The last real season we had in the western Pacific was 2006. Horrible.

Yeah, when the western Pacific gets really active it is doom for them.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
246. beell
1712Z AMSU-A Cross Section
Jellowhat

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16726
Quoting KoritheMan:


ATCF is not official. Do we have to teach you a lesson like we did Cody? :P


Yes, but must of the time unless there is recon or any other factor, the NHC bases on this for a storm intensity...in many cases specially in the east pacific... I think Miriam really is 85 mph but 90 mph is also possible..
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
75-80 knots.



Quoting KoritheMan:


ATCF is not official. Do we have to teach you a lesson like we did Cody? :P

Psh.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
Quoting wxchaser97:

I know the eastern Pacific is dead, I want a major there too, but I don't think the western Pacific is dead.


Neither have been particularly dead this year. Obviously I meant in general. The last real season we had in the western Pacific before this one was 2006. Horrible.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20821
I guess Micheal has risen to fame.Especially if he becomes this year's only Major in the Atlantic.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17074

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.