Nadine is back; Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 typhoon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Nadine is back, like a nasty cold you just can't get rid of. Nadine had moved southeastwards over cool waters on Friday and Saturday, which robbed the storm of its heavy thunderstorms and tropical characteristics. But Nadine wandered back to the west this Sunday morning over slightly warmer waters, allowing the storm to regain its heavy thunderstorms and its name. Steering currents favor a continued westwards motion for Nadine, keeping the storm far enough south of the Azores Islands that they will see only very sporadic rain showers over the next few days. Nadine will likely turn to the north over the middle Atlantic late this week, but will still probably be around a week from now. The storm is not likely to threaten any land areas for at least the next seven days.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine, taken at 9:50 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 storm
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Jelawat put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification, strengthening from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds in just 24 hours. Jelawat is located about 200 miles to the east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm's outer spiral bands are bringing moderate rains to the eastern Philippines. Jelawat is expected to move slowly to the north-northwest to northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, through Tuesday. The predicted path is far enough from the Philippines to spare the islands the kind of torrential rains capable of causing major flooding. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, and Jelawat is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content of over 100 KJ/cm^2, which is exceptionally high. These favorable conditions for intensification have prompted the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to predict that Jelawat will become a Category 5 typhoon by Monday. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organzied typhoon with a large symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. There remains a huge uncertainty on where Jelawat might go. The computer models fall into two distinct camps, 350 miles apart, for Jelawat's 3-day position. The models are even more divergent--700 miles apart--for the storm's 5-day position. The more westward solution provided by our two top models, the ECMWF and GFS, is the one currently depicted in the official Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast. Given the large spread in models, the 3 - 5 day forecast for Jelawat is low-confidence.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Jelawat taken at 4:32 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropical Storm Miriam in the Eastern Pacific growing more organized
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam appears poised to put on a burst of rapid intensification that would make it a hurricane on Monday. Our two top models, the GFS and ECMWF, are divergent in their long-range predictions for Miriam. The GFS shows Miriam hitting central Baja on Friday, while the ECMWF keeps the storm offshore, dissipating it a few hundred miles off the Baja coast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it appears we are on a sat blackout over the atlantic regions i can not get any images

anyone else having this problem


Yes, they have been out for awhile. I thought my right cataract was really going on me. This was the only thing I could get up.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23724
341. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #15
TYPHOON LAWIN (JELAWAT)
11:00 AM PhST September 24 2012
==================================

Typhoon "LAWIN" has gained more strength while moving northward

At 10:00 AM PhSt, Typhoon Lawin (Jelawat) [943 hPa] located at 13.9°N, 128.4°E or 405 km east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 4 knots.

Additional Information
=====================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon..

Southwest monsoon enhanced by the Typhoon will continue to bring moderate to heavy rains in Visayas and Mindanao.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboards Luzon, and the seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao due to big waves generated by Typhoon "LAWIN".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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.
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I wasn't expecting the Atlantic to go down with only one major hurricane (and a brief one at that). Really don't think we'll see another.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19127
Quoting beell:


Those are two different words with two different meanings.


Right. Semantics. :P
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19127
337. Skyepony (Mod)
GOES-15 has stepped up giving us the view west to FL..



****************Update#7: ****************GOES-15 Full Disk images will
be transmitted thru the GOES-13 GVAR as of 0030 UTC. **
*
**Status:*********************************Imager out of service since
September 23, 2012 at 2122 UTC
Sounder out of service since September 23, 2012 at 1126 UTC
LRIT East out of service since September 23, 2012 at 2122
UTC****************
****************
The Engineers continue to investigate, no return to service time
available.****************
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336. beell
Quoting KoritheMan:


Then why the need for semantics? :P


Those are two different words with two different meanings.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15324
Very nice looking.

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Quoting beell:


I think I knew what you meant. Intensity (no majors) was lacking. Activity was decent.


Then why the need for semantics? :P
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19127
333. beell
Quoting KoritheMan:


I should have clarified. :P

I meant that development has been most prominent in the subtropics. Not a typical year.


I think I knew what you meant. Intensity (no majors-added: except Michael) was lacking. Activity was decent.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15324
Quoting Skyepony:
GOES-13 was having troubles day before yesterday too. It had this herringbone or checkerboard thing going on. It was discussed in CIMSS sat blog. Here's the comparison with GOES-14 at the time.


Ah yes, this is what I was noticing. Hopefully it's being fixed.
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331. Skyepony (Mod)
GOES-13 was having troubles day before yesterday too. It had this herringbone or checkerboard thing going on. It was discussed in CIMSS sat blog. Here's the comparison with GOES-14 at the time.
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Quoting beell:




I should have clarified. :P

I meant that development has been most prominent in the subtropics. Not a typical year.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19127
Quoting JLPR2:
Go on Nadine, impress me...


WOOHOO Nadine has a thunderstorm........... hahathey shuld call it thunderstorm Nadine
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328. beell
Quoting KoritheMan:


The East Pacific has hardly been "hyperactive". It's actually been fairly normal.

The Atlantic's lack of activity is probably more tied to the strong Bermuda-Azores ridge, which has increased the trade winds and associated subsident flow.


Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15324
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've got bad news guys...something has happened to GOES-13. That means we have no access to nearly the entire Atlantic.


It was all pixel-y before (at least the WV), but now that part that's back up towards the west (GOM area) is smooth looking like normal.
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Quoting HurrikanEB:
Question: When Nadine completes her loop, will it be a "cyclonic loop"? Or are there other kinds of loops (idk, meandering/erratic loops maybe?)

I ask because according to wikipedia, Alberto of 2000 holds the record for largest cyclonic loop, and just looking at the forecast, Nadine's loop should be close to the same size. Granted that it's pretty irregularly shaped for a loop.


It would be an anticyclonic loop. Meaning clockwise.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19127
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've got bad news guys...something has happened to GOES-13. That means we have no access to nearly the entire Atlantic.





Well, at least there's no satellite outage for the Pacific.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
324. beell
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it appears we are on a sat blackout over the atlantic regions i can not get any images

anyone else having this problem


Thanks, Keep.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15324
Quoting JLPR2:
Go on Nadine, impress me...



That little dot of convection impresses me :P
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Question: When Nadine completes her loop, will it be a "cyclonic loop"? Or are there other kinds of loops (idk, meandering/erratic loops maybe?)

I ask because according to wikipedia, Alberto of 2000 holds the record for largest cyclonic loop, and just looking at the forecast, Nadine's loop should be close to the same size. Granted that it's pretty irregularly shaped for a loop.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


But... we still have three months till December 21. Dammit guys.

This is just the beginning...
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
I apparently live in the void now.


But... we still have three months till December 21. Dammit guys.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19127
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've got bad news guys...something has happened to GOES-13. That means we have no access to nearly the entire Atlantic.





Here is the bulletin about the outage.

***Date/Time**Issued:*September 24, 2012, 0040 UTC*
*

*Product(s) or Data Impacted:* GOES-13 Sounder

*Date/Time of Initial Impact: *September 23, 2012 1120 UTC**

*Date/Time of Expected End: * Unknown

*Length of Outage:*TBD

*Details/Specifics of Change:*No Sounder products will be available due
to an instrument anomaly. A return to service is unknown. The problem
is being investigated.

*Update#1 *GOES-13 Sounder instrument anomaly continues the Engineers
are on site, with no return to service time available.

**Update#2 **GOES-13 Sounder instrument anomaly status has not change,
the Engineers continue to investigate. The estimated return to service
for GOES-13 Sounder is still undetermined at this time.

****Update#3 ********GOES-13 Sounder instrument anomaly status has not
change. The Engineers continue to investigate, still with no return to
service time available.

********Update#4 ************GOES-13 Sounder instrument anomaly status
has not change and the investigation continues, with no return to
service time available.

********Update#5 ********Due to the GOES-13 anomaly both the Imager and
Sounder are being placed into standby mode. There will be no products
generated by GOES-13. The East GINI was switched to the alternate
mode. This means that the East GINI is using GOES West data for
processing/creating products.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13301
I apparently live in the void now.
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I've got bad news guys...something has happened to GOES-13. That means we have no access to nearly the entire Atlantic.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
June active Atlantic
July active eastern Pacific
August active Atlantic
September active eastern pacific
have you seen the trend now?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3707
Once Nadine stops meandering this one has Rock Of Gibraltar landfall written all over it. You heard it here first.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


That%u2019s most likely the most annoying phrase of the season. Hasn%u2019t seemed to have panned out as of now.


What's more annoying are the constant influx of "OH MY GOD! LOOK HOW HOT THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO ARE! I HOPE NOTHING GETS IN THERE! I'M PRAYING FOR A TROUGH!" comments. The people who say that speak as if it's actually surprising that those areas are warm during peak season. I would hope they are, otherwise it's probably a sign of an enormous climatological shift.

I mentally facepalm every time they say either.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19127
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


But what about Rocket Fuel?


Burning out his fuel out here alone....
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2012

DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT VERY ABUNDANT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STORM
AND IT IS OCCURRING MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS TC INTENSITY
CONSENSUS...SATCON...WHICH IS A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
MICROWAVE ESTIMATES. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH ABOUT 25 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR INFLUENCING THE CIRCULATION. THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SOON BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A 200 MB
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF NADINE CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING SOUTHWARD IN
A DAY OR SO...WITH A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE SHOW THE SHEAR
DIMINISHING SUBSTANTIALLY IN 36-48 HOURS. THUS...ASSUMING THAT
NADINE IS ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO SURVIVE AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE SYSTEM HAS AN
OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NOT FAR FROM THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.

NADINE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NEAR 290/3. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS MORE OR LESS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF NADINE IS
FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A NORTHEAST- TO SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
ABOUT 72 HOURS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKNESS IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.
AS A RESULT...NADINE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY
DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS ALSO
BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS DETERMINISTIC RUN AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 31.0N 26.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 31.4N 27.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 31.6N 28.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 31.6N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 31.3N 31.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 30.5N 32.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 31.0N 34.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 33.5N 36.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
HURRICANE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2012

MIRIAM HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO. AN
EYE...WHICH HAD BEEN EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE DATA EARLIER TODAY...
BECAME APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES A FEW HOURS AGO.
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS WELL ORGANIZED WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS
SURROUNDING THE RAGGED EYE AND BANDING FEATURES LOCATED IN ALL
QUADRANTS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.0/65
KT FROM TAFB...4.5/77 KT FROM SAB...AND 4.7/82 KT FROM UW-CIMSS.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 80 KT...NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE
ESTIMATES GIVEN THE IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE THE TIME
OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
27-28C AND IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN. IN 36 TO 48
HOURS...HOWEVER...MIRIAM IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER COOL WATERS
AND IN MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. THESE UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS SHOULD END THE STRENGTHENING TREND...AND CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO WEAKEN. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE
OLD ONE AFTER THAT.

MIRIAM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS GENERAL HEADING
WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF MIRIAM WEAKENS.
AFTER THAT...A TURN TO THE NORTH AT AN EVEN SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY A TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND REMAINS NEAR THE RIGHT SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS AIDS TO THE WEST AND
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO THE EAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 16.8N 111.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 17.6N 112.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 18.5N 113.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 19.2N 114.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 19.8N 115.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 21.2N 115.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 22.5N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 24.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
High TCHP in West Caribbean=Monster Storm maybe.
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309. JLPR2
Go on Nadine, impress me...

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


But what about Rocket Fuel?


well its kinda useless
if ya have no rocket
and right now
we have no rocket
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...NADINE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...NO THREAT TO LAND AREAS...
11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 23
Location: 31.0°N 26.3°W
Moving: WNW at 3 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

...MIRIAM NOW A HURRICANE AND STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY...
8:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 23
Location: 16.8°N 111.3°W
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 979 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...MIRIAM NOW A HURRICANE AND STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 111.3W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh, right. Can't forget about that...


That’s most likely the most annoying phrase of the season. Hasn’t seemed to have panned out as of now.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


But what about Rocket Fuel?
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2012

...NADINE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...NO THREAT TO LAND AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 26.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


But what about Rocket Fuel?


Oh, right. Can't forget about that...
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19127
it appears we are on a sat blackout over the atlantic regions i can not get any images

anyone else having this problem
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The East Pacific has hardly been "hyperactive". It's actually been fairly normal.

The Atlantic's lack of activity is probably more tied to the strong Bermuda-Azores ridge, which has increased the trade winds and associated subsident flow.


But what about Rocket Fuel?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
Quoting unknowncomic:
I have a suspicion there is a correlation between the Atlantic's lack of powerful storms and the Hyperactive East pacific season this year.(Tied into warmer East pacific water/El Nino) Any thoughts on this?

Less wind shear and warmer SST's in the epac with higher shear in the Atlantic. You get an active epac season during el nino and a quieter season in the Atlantic. This isn't an el nino year sooo...
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7887
Quoting unknowncomic:
I have a suspicion there is a correlation between the Atlantic's lack of powerful storms and the Hyperactive East pacific season this year.(Tied into warmer East pacific water/El Nino) Any thoughts on this?


The East Pacific has hardly been "hyperactive". It's actually been fairly normal.

The Atlantic's lack of activity is probably more tied to the strong Bermuda-Azores ridge, which has increased the trade winds and associated subsident flow.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19127
297. beell
Warm seclusion
A warm seclusion is the mature phase of the extratropical cyclone lifecycle. This was conceptualized after the ERICA field experiment of the late 1980s, which produced observations of intense marine cyclones that indicated an anomalously warm low-level thermal structure, secluded (or surrounded) by a bent-back warm front and a coincident chevron-shaped band of intense surface winds.[28] The Norwegian Cyclone Model, as developed by the Bergen School of Meteorology, largely observed cyclones at the tail end of their lifecycle and used the term occlusion to identify the decaying stages.[29]

Warm seclusions may have cloud-free, eye-like features at their center (reminiscent of tropical cyclones), significant pressure falls, hurricane force winds, and moderate to strong convection. The most intense warm seclusions often attain pressures less than 950 millibars (28.05 inHg) with a definitive lower to mid-level warm core structure.[28] A warm seclusion, the result of a baroclinic lifecycle, occurs at latitudes well poleward of the tropics.

As latent heat flux releases are important for their development and intensification, most warm seclusion events occur over the oceans; they may impact coastal nations with hurricane force winds and torrential rain.[27][30] Climatologically, the Northern Hemisphere sees warm seclusions during the cold season months, while the Southern Hemisphere may see a strong cyclone event such as this during all times of the year.

In all tropical basins, except the Northern Indian Ocean, the extratropical transition of a tropical cyclone may result in reintensification into a warm seclusion. For example, Hurricane Maria of 2005 reintensified into a strong baroclinic system and achieved warm seclusion status at maturity (or lowest pressure).[31]

Extratropical Cyclone - Warm Seclusion
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15324
I have a suspicion there is a correlation between the Atlantic's lack of powerful storms and the Hyperactive East pacific season this year.(Tied into warmer East pacific water/El Nino) Any thoughts on this?
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Miriam:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Silly UW-CIMSS is silly.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 SEP 2012 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 16:36:38 N Lon : 110:59:08 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 975.1mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.4C Cloud Region Temp : -70.6C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 77km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.7 degrees
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
13E/H/M/C2
MARK
17.03N/111.07W
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.