Nadine is back; Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 typhoon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Nadine is back, like a nasty cold you just can't get rid of. Nadine had moved southeastwards over cool waters on Friday and Saturday, which robbed the storm of its heavy thunderstorms and tropical characteristics. But Nadine wandered back to the west this Sunday morning over slightly warmer waters, allowing the storm to regain its heavy thunderstorms and its name. Steering currents favor a continued westwards motion for Nadine, keeping the storm far enough south of the Azores Islands that they will see only very sporadic rain showers over the next few days. Nadine will likely turn to the north over the middle Atlantic late this week, but will still probably be around a week from now. The storm is not likely to threaten any land areas for at least the next seven days.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine, taken at 9:50 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 storm
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Jelawat put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification, strengthening from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds in just 24 hours. Jelawat is located about 200 miles to the east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm's outer spiral bands are bringing moderate rains to the eastern Philippines. Jelawat is expected to move slowly to the north-northwest to northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, through Tuesday. The predicted path is far enough from the Philippines to spare the islands the kind of torrential rains capable of causing major flooding. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, and Jelawat is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content of over 100 KJ/cm^2, which is exceptionally high. These favorable conditions for intensification have prompted the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to predict that Jelawat will become a Category 5 typhoon by Monday. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organzied typhoon with a large symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. There remains a huge uncertainty on where Jelawat might go. The computer models fall into two distinct camps, 350 miles apart, for Jelawat's 3-day position. The models are even more divergent--700 miles apart--for the storm's 5-day position. The more westward solution provided by our two top models, the ECMWF and GFS, is the one currently depicted in the official Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast. Given the large spread in models, the 3 - 5 day forecast for Jelawat is low-confidence.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Jelawat taken at 4:32 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropical Storm Miriam in the Eastern Pacific growing more organized
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam appears poised to put on a burst of rapid intensification that would make it a hurricane on Monday. Our two top models, the GFS and ECMWF, are divergent in their long-range predictions for Miriam. The GFS shows Miriam hitting central Baja on Friday, while the ECMWF keeps the storm offshore, dissipating it a few hundred miles off the Baja coast.

Jeff Masters

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Wow, when I went to bed last night Miriam was only a tropical storm and now it's a Category 2 as of the 09:00 UTC advisory?

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 240821
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
200 AM PDT MON SEP 24 2012

...CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE MIRIAM RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 112.2W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MIRIAM IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND MIRIAM COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Quoting flibinite:
What a find, Oracle! What do you think caused such a high number of them? Looking at your graphs we get hit by them so rarely, and they're so strong right now.

I wonder what effects they actually have on the Earth and us and technologic systems, and whether they're going to continue for long?

Jo

The sun is an unstable nuclear reactor, constantly giving off streams of neutron radiation. The neutrons are stable in space and only become unstable again when they encounter our atmosphere. Ignore the short term graph. You'll see from the longer term graph that peaks and valleys are very common, with a much higher peak than what's happening currently in October and November of last year. Our atmosphere mostly protects us from the ionizing radiation caused by these neutrons, although too much exposure to the sun increases the exposure to the neutrons, causing what we know as sunburn. Repeated sunburns have been linked to skin cancer, which may be a by-product of the exposure to increased neutron radiation. As long as you wear sunscreen and avoid too much exposure to the sun, there's no harm. In fact, the neutron bombardment is needed for human life, since the sun wouldn't be able to warm the earth without the interaction of neutrons and our atmosphere. At some point billions of years from now, the sun will expand to the point that the neutron bombardment will overwhelm our atmosphere. At that point, we all burn up and die. We still have a while before we start worrying about that problem. :)
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Morning from the UK everyone,

Quoting Slamguitar:
Good morning to Nadine's daughter:




Had some heavy rain here near me from the system - the Environment Agency has issued quite a few flood warnings for the south west of the UK Link.


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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
We just got slammed with neutrons, so I wonder if this is related to the Goes 13 problem?







No word on when she'll be back up, either.

Subject: Product Outage/Anomaly: GOES-13 Sounder and Imager
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
--------------020307050006070006090600
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit



************************************************* ***************Update#9:
********************************GOES-15
Full Disk images will be transmitted thru the GOES-13 GVAR as of
0030 UTC.

Status:Imager out of service since September 23, 2012 at 2122 UTC
Sounder out of service since September 23, 2012 at 1126 UTC

LRIT East out of service since September 23, 2012 at 2122 UTC
********************************

GOES 15 imagery will be sent to both LRIT East and
LRIT West until the anomaly with GOES-13 is resolved


The Engineers continue to investigate, no return to service time
available.********************************
************************************************* ***************

Solar geomagnetic activity is and has been quite low this month. Neutron bombardment shouldn't have any effect on satellite transmission. Geomagnetic storms from solar flares are what interferes with radio transmission. It sounds like, from the sparse information available, that there's been a failure in some on-board equipment in the GOES-13 satellite itself. If that's the case, it may be a long time, if ever, before they get the satellite back on-line, depending on if there is or isn't a redundant system they can use to bypass the faulty equipment.
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What a find, Oracle! What do you think caused such a high number of them? Looking at your graphs we get hit by them so rarely, and they're so strong right now.

I wonder what effects they actually have on the Earth and us and technologic systems, and whether they're going to continue for long?

Jo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting indianrivguy:
hahahaha, made me laugh SAR, I'll tell ya. Awhile back I ran across some pictures of old, hand drawn tracking maps. I began to wonder what happened to all of them we.. my family tracked all through the sixties. Sure wish I had them to add to my personal archives.

Good morning everyone!!

Good morning as well. I wish I had some of mine left, but they are, alas, in the trash heap of history somewhere. I really felt like I accomplished something when I was able to track a storm from when it was what would now be called an invest all the way until it became a hurricane. There was no NHC, just a sub-office of the main Miami Weather Bureau office called the Hurricane Warning Center. They would broadcast a summary of reports every four hours, and it was pretty neat for a 15 year old kid when my maps matched up to what the radio report said. They also hand drew their own maps and issued them to the wire services, but you generally had to wait for the map to show up in the local newspaper, so it was already eight to twelve hours old by the time I got to see it. Somehow, they still managed to get the track about right at least half the time. Reading about the GOES-13 outage bought back a lot of memories. I remember reading in Popular Science about the idea of satellites that would give us real-time data on storms at sea when I was that 15 year old kid. I never thought I'd see it in my lifetime.
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We just got slammed with neutrons, so I wonder if this is related to the Goes 13 problem?







No word on when she'll be back up, either.

Subject: Product Outage/Anomaly: GOES-13 Sounder and Imager
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
--------------020307050006070006090600
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit



************************************************* ***************Update#9:
********************************GOES-15
Full Disk images will be transmitted thru the GOES-13 GVAR as of
0030 UTC.

Status:Imager out of service since September 23, 2012 at 2122 UTC
Sounder out of service since September 23, 2012 at 1126 UTC

LRIT East out of service since September 23, 2012 at 2122 UTC
********************************

GOES 15 imagery will be sent to both LRIT East and
LRIT West until the anomaly with GOES-13 is resolved


The Engineers continue to investigate, no return to service time
available.********************************
************************************************* ***************
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting unknowncomic:
High TCHP in West Caribbean=Monster Storm maybe.

First such comment was along about May. Wash, rinse, and repeat for June, July, August, and September. Net result = no Monster Storms. Wash, rinse, and repeat for October and November.
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hahahaha, made me laugh SAR, I'll tell ya. Awhile back I ran across some pictures of old, hand drawn tracking maps. I began to wonder what happened to all of them we.. my family tracked all through the sixties. Sure wish I had them to add to my personal archives.

Good morning everyone!!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've got bad news guys...something has happened to GOES-13. That means we have no access to nearly the entire Atlantic.





The era: 1950's to the mid-1960's
Materials: Paper map of the tropics and GOM, pencil with eraser, and straight edge. Plastic coated map and grease pencils if you made enough extra money from the paper route.
Equipment: Hallicrafters SX-120 HF receiver, 140 foot long wire antenna strung in the trees, and a good pair of head phones.
Task: Determine from ship, buoy, and aircraft reports the lat/long of each report, wind speed, direction, and pressure, then plot each position on the map. Use eraser to change position locations with new reports and redraw line. You had to know Morse Code also, since all reports were broadcast in Morse Code, not voice. When you got all the reports for the hour in and mapped, stare real hard at the map and see if a tropical cyclone appeared to be developing or intensifying.

This is what I did to track tropical cyclones when I was TA13's age. Given the age and increasing unreliability of many of the current satellites, it's inevitable we will suffer prolonged outages at some point in the future. We'll be back to ship and aircraft reports, plus some scattered bouys that still broadcast direct reports and aren't dependent on satellite uplinks.

If you've never done this before, now would be a good time to practice. It may really come in handy at some point in time.
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Link
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From the BBC
Rain and strong winds lash the UK

Met Office rain warnings are in place for much of the UK
Most of the UK is braced for a month's rainfall within the next 24 hours as summer comes to an abrupt end.

Winds of up to 60mph will hit the north of England and south of Scotland, while other areas could see 80mm of rain before Monday evening, forecasters say.

The Environment Agency issued 60 flood alerts, mainly in south-west England, and six warnings for the South West. A woman was killed by a falling tree branch in London.
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Good morning to Nadine's daughter:


Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
379. JLPR2
Well, no close up images of the Atl, but then again, there isn't much to look at.



And luckily Nadine is visible with Meteosat.



And with that I'm out, night/morning!
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Morning from a wet and battered UK.

Pressure is dropping, gone from 998 when I went to bed and now at 976, according to my own electronic weather station.

Amber warning out from the BBC for most of the north, with a possible severe gale warning - force 9/10.

And daughter of Nadine is set to go north and then come back south again... just like her mother!
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"Possible locations"...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9798
Ha, even the graphical TWO is a messed up.

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Quoting Skyepony:


I thought the same thing about 93W..



Only time will tell what kind of human experiments or natural processes are involved in actual meteorology....

For the moment, it's just the interaction of that wave with the ULL that is behaving that way....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9798
373. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting sunlinepr:
I find very strange and interesting that squared clear area over SE PR...





I thought the same thing about 93W..

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Quoting sunlinepr:




Square is the new circle.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183


Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9798
We had lots of wonderful "what if" moments all season because we had rocket fuel, lots of big messy waterlogged Twaves and TDs that never really got going, not because of lack of fuel, but because we couldn't get any rockets out there on the lauch pad.
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I find very strange and interesting that squared clear area over SE PR...



Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9798
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


But what about Rocket Fuel?

Got to have some rockets. What good are Grothar's jokes if no one has a sense of humor?
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Anybody else getting weird script warnings?
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More on Hurricane Faith from wikipedia:

The origins of Hurricane Faith were from an area of disturbed weather that emerged into the Atlantic along the west coast of Africa on August 18. Moving off Africa, Television Infrared Observation Satellite XI (TIROS XI) had indicated that the system became a poorly defined tropical depression and was associated with a circular mass of convection. The area of disturbed weather traced westward, eventually becoming Tropical Depression Eight on August 21.[1]

Continuing westward, Tropical Depression Eight intensified, and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Faith the day after developing. Gradually intensification persisted as Tropical Storm Faith headed nearly due westward, and strengthened enough to become a hurricane on August 23. Curving slightly west-northwestward, Hurricane Faith reached category 2 intensity and briefly peaked at sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h). Hurricane Faith curved to the northwest, and weakened back to a category 1 hurricane while nearing the northeastern Leeward Islands on August 25. By passing the Leeward Islands, Faith remained a category 1 hurricane until re-intensifying into category 2 hurricane on August 28, while it had situated near Turks and Caicos Islands. After becoming a category 2 hurricane again, Faith quickly intensified into a category 3 hurricane only six hours later. Immediately upon becoming a category 3 hurricane, Faith had reached its maximum sustained winds of 125 mph (205 km/h), although the minimum barometric pressure was not recorded at this time.[1]

After reaching maximum sustained winds late on August 28, Hurricane Faith began to gradually weaken back, and had dropped down to category 2 intensity early on August 30 while moving slowly north-northwest. Weakening back to a category 2 hurricane, Faith turned northeastward at almost halfway between Bermuda and Florida. Hurricane Faith remained well away from the United States East Coast and Atlantic Canada when it veered eastward on September 1. Heading eastward, Hurricane Faith began to accelerate and eventually curved northeastward. Nearing Europe, Hurricane Faith moved as fast as 48 mph (76 km/h) while just south of Iceland. After remaining a category 2 hurricane since August 29, Hurricane Faith finally weakened back to a category 1 hurricane early on September 6, while close to the Faroe Islands. Entering the North Sea, Hurricane Faith finally transitioned into an extratropical storm.[1] Transitioning into an extratropical storm, the remnants headed westward and affected Norway with winds as high as 60 mph (95 km/h). Tracking over Scandinavia, the extratropical storm weakened to the equivalency of a tropical depression before entering the Soviet Union (present day Russia), and later degenerated into an extratropical low. The extratropical low pressure area headed northward, and retained its identity as far north as Franz Josef Land, which is roughly 600 mi (966 km) from the North Pole.[2]

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Nadine looks lonely out there among the stratocumulus.
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Quoting Skyepony:
GOES-13 was having troubles day before yesterday too. It had this herringbone or checkerboard thing going on. It was discussed in CIMSS sat blog. Here's the comparison with GOES-14 at the time.

Thanks for that link! A quote from that blog.

"The noise is present in both Imager and Sounder data. This suggests that the root cause may be with the satellite platform itself, not necessarily with the instruments on board. NOAA/NESDIS scientists are actively working to determine the cause of the noise in the signal."
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Quoting BahaHurican:
On the topic of Nadine, I'm finding it really interesting that back in '05 we were all flabbergasted by storms like Vince and Epsilon... but then I also remember those tracking maps with little exes running into the Faroe Islands and ending off the coast of Norway, and I begin to understand a bit better...

Faith, anyone?
Just gotta have faith.
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Silly METAR, it's fog not mist!!! :D

KMOP 240435Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM BR CLR 02/02 A3017 RMK AO2 T00220017



(I'm really bored)
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
On the topic of Nadine, I'm finding it really interesting that back in '05 we were all flabbergasted by storms like Vince and Epsilon... but then I also remember those tracking maps with little exes running into the Faroe Islands and ending off the coast of Norway, and I begin to understand a bit better...

Faith, anyone?
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Oh! ... Well that it explains it then.

Geeeeze! Now I have 47 unused and unusable comments.
I was about to say, "good thing ur wife is away, now, innit?" to Grothar, and then I saw THIS conversation...

Now I don't know what to think about it all....

Another mystery of the world....

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I really ought to head to bed now with a physics exam tomorrow morning, a physics lab report due after, and a differential equations exam Tuesday morning. Really not looking forward to the first physics exam. I'm not used to this type of problem solving at all yet. Unlike just pure mathematics, it feels like there are a million ways to set up the problems wrong, and it throws my mind into a spin instead of thinking rationally...
Here I thought I loved physics, I guess i just like the scientific concepts of physics, that is, how things work. However solving the homework is brutal for me, and likewise the test is like the more difficult problems on the homework, definitely not going to be the more trivial ones.
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.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


XD



I'm glad somebody else appreciated this picture ;)
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Quoting Jedkins01:


XD
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Quoting aspectre:


Oh sure, brag about it. I'm sweatin', and still can't type or play the guitar with my toes.


Never said I was good at either. ;)
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
346 Slamguitar: Oh my, I'm already down to 36.7F tonight! Guess it's finally time to kick on the furnace for the first time this season. I can't feel my toes let alone my fingers, which makes it awfully hard to type or strum the 'ol git-box.

Oh sure, brag about it bein' merely difficult.
I'm sweatin', and still can't type or play the guitar with my toes.
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Quoting Grothar:


Restraint, now Rookie.


Oh! ... Well that it explains it then.

Geeeeze! Now I have 47 unused and unusable comments.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I will be nice. ..... Why does it sometimes hurt to be nice??? ... or, at least not as much fun?


Restraint, now Rookie.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26010
Quoting RTSplayer:


You gotta be joking.

36.7f would be awesome.

we're at 73f right now.


I'm in the middle of the mitten, so I'm not joking. We got frost advisories all over the state.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Quoting Slamguitar:
Oh my, I'm already down to 36.7F tonight! Guess it's finally time to kick on the furnace for the first time this season. I can't feel my toes let alone my fingers, which makes it awfully hard to type.


You gotta be joking.

36.7f would be awesome.

we're at 73f right now.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, they have been out for awhile. I thought my right cataract was really going on me. This was the only thing I could get up.



I will be nice. ..... Why does it sometimes hurt to be nice??? ... or, at least not as much fun?
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Quoting wxmod:


Yay!! I love clouds!! Post more pictures without any sort of discussion at all! We all love that!
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Oh my, I'm already down to 36.7F tonight! Guess it's finally time to kick on the furnace for the first time this season. I can't feel my toes let alone my fingers, which makes it awfully hard to type or strum the 'ol git-box.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
345. wxmod
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Did you guys see those guys on iceberg hunters on TWC?

I have never seen such inefficiency in my life.

I could certainly quadruple that guy's income in a few paragraphs of suggestions.


1, Put an air hammer on the end of one of those poles, with a small compressor and hose, and move up along side the ice berg and break it apart in a few seconds, instead of pecking at the thing with a gun like an idiot. Alternatively, you could mount it on the end of a pole on the Bow of the ship, like a ram. This will save so much time compared to that crappy gun approach that he'll be able to make several extra trips per day, and probably pay for itself in the very first day. In fact, given the price of rifle rounds, it would pay for itself in several days anyway in saved ammunition costs. It will still be safe enough because it will be at the end of the pole.

2, Get a vacuum insulated cooler to store the ice in so it doesn't melt. This will pay for itself in a few days. You can actually make it yourself with the right materials.

3, Get a bigger boat.


If he doesn't improve dramatically at what he's doing, he will lose his business, because anyone who saw that video, has a boat, and lives within distance could do that job and do it better.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
343. beell
Quoting KoritheMan:


Right. Semantics. :P


Yours, not mine.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it appears we are on a sat blackout over the atlantic regions i can not get any images

anyone else having this problem


Yes, they have been out for awhile. I thought my right cataract was really going on me. This was the only thing I could get up.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26010

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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