Nadine is back; Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 typhoon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Nadine is back, like a nasty cold you just can't get rid of. Nadine had moved southeastwards over cool waters on Friday and Saturday, which robbed the storm of its heavy thunderstorms and tropical characteristics. But Nadine wandered back to the west this Sunday morning over slightly warmer waters, allowing the storm to regain its heavy thunderstorms and its name. Steering currents favor a continued westwards motion for Nadine, keeping the storm far enough south of the Azores Islands that they will see only very sporadic rain showers over the next few days. Nadine will likely turn to the north over the middle Atlantic late this week, but will still probably be around a week from now. The storm is not likely to threaten any land areas for at least the next seven days.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine, taken at 9:50 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 storm
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Jelawat put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification, strengthening from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds in just 24 hours. Jelawat is located about 200 miles to the east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm's outer spiral bands are bringing moderate rains to the eastern Philippines. Jelawat is expected to move slowly to the north-northwest to northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, through Tuesday. The predicted path is far enough from the Philippines to spare the islands the kind of torrential rains capable of causing major flooding. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, and Jelawat is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content of over 100 KJ/cm^2, which is exceptionally high. These favorable conditions for intensification have prompted the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to predict that Jelawat will become a Category 5 typhoon by Monday. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organzied typhoon with a large symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. There remains a huge uncertainty on where Jelawat might go. The computer models fall into two distinct camps, 350 miles apart, for Jelawat's 3-day position. The models are even more divergent--700 miles apart--for the storm's 5-day position. The more westward solution provided by our two top models, the ECMWF and GFS, is the one currently depicted in the official Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast. Given the large spread in models, the 3 - 5 day forecast for Jelawat is low-confidence.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Jelawat taken at 4:32 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropical Storm Miriam in the Eastern Pacific growing more organized
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam appears poised to put on a burst of rapid intensification that would make it a hurricane on Monday. Our two top models, the GFS and ECMWF, are divergent in their long-range predictions for Miriam. The GFS shows Miriam hitting central Baja on Friday, while the ECMWF keeps the storm offshore, dissipating it a few hundred miles off the Baja coast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You can write about it if you think anything is going to form in the Gulf with 70 knots of wind shear..


I can write about it even if I don't think anything is going to form in the Gulf with 70 knots of wind shear..
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I have to go to school, bye everyone. I'm thinking I will see a cat 5 typhoon when I get home.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
the pre-developmental stages are the most exciting for old plotters like my character also helps now the air temp. is slightly cooler.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4780
all you characters want instant gratification it will take a couple days
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4780
Quoting islander101010:
no characters writing about the gulfs disturbance? leftover front mixing with ex 92 in the soupy warm waters of the gulf.

The very high wind shear in the GOM has other plans so no development there for now.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
Quoting islander101010:
no characters writing about the gulfs disturbance? leftover front mixing with ex 92 in the soupy warm waters of the gulf.

You can write about it if you think anything is going to form in the Gulf with 70 knots of wind shear..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
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no characters writing about the gulfs disturbance? leftover front mixing with ex 92 in the soupy warm waters of the gulf.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4780
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11323
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Latest microwave imagery on Miriam showing her good circulation but still not a super good eyewall.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
Jelawat would appear to be done its EWRC and is strengthening again. I would give it roughly 135kts intensity atm and should be at least 140kts before the next JTWC update.



And to think the tropics were boring this time yesterday!
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430. beell
Alternates for Nadine

RAMMB - Nadine

MSG2 IR - Nadine
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Thanks 413 that doesn't sound good.
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Quoting allancalderini:
you wrote Miriam two times.

Oh, lol. I'll fix it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Miriam has stopped rapidly intensifying, but is probably not done at least slowly intensifying. Still may become a major hurricane tonight.



Miriam is very close to being a Category 5. Cloud tops in the northwest quadrant just need to cool some.



Miriam, I think, will become a major hurricane for a short time.

Also it is Jelawat not Miriam on the bottom, Jelawat is close to a cat5.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
426. atris
Good Morning! Jelawat is quite a storm

Member Since: September 9, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 56
Good morning everyone, Jelawat is close to a cat5, Miriam is still strengthening, and Nadine is doing whatever she wants since we can't look at her really.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why?
you wrote Miriam two times.
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423. beell
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Agreed.


And another for SFLWeatherman also!
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Quoting beell:
try a second cup of coffee, TA.

Why?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Quoting indianrivguy:
hahahaha, made me laugh SAR, I'll tell ya. Awhile back I ran across some pictures of old, hand drawn tracking maps. I began to wonder what happened to all of them we.. my family tracked all through the sixties. Sure wish I had them to add to my personal archives.

Good morning everyone!!


Yeah, I still have the map I tracked Katrina and Rita on, somewhere around here.

For most other maps, they were thrown away, not realizing the history that was being made.

For older generations before the satellite era I think it may represent a piece of history not preserved in the same way it would have been. People collect baseball cards and antiques, but not weather reports.
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418. beell
.
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Miriam has stopped rapidly intensifying, but is probably not done at least slowly intensifying. Still may become a major hurricane tonight.



Jelawat is very close to being a Category 5. Cloud tops in the northwest quadrant just need to cool some.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
my forecast center has shut down you are on your own now little epac i guess. my buddy who lives in s cal said the water has been usually warm maybe mariam has a chance to hold together alittle better than usual years.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4780
Off to play teacher, first day back into resource room after school realized wrong person gave them wrong information. Gotta love when wrong info is passed along, but now I'm back to doing what I love.

Everyone have a great Monday!
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what is going on???
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Good morning all, anyone know what happened to the Satellite at the NHC.



SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
2048Z SUN SEP 23 2012


THE NESDIS SOCC...SATELLITE OPERATIONS CONTROL CENTER...HAS
ADVISED THAT DUE TO UNKNOWN PROBLEMS WITH THE GOES-13 SOUNDER
INSTRUMENT, THEY ARE PUTTING BOTH IT AND THE IMAGER INTO STANDBY
MODE TO PROTECT THEM FROM FURTHER DAMAGE.
GOES-15...GOES-WEST...WILL BE PUT INTO FULL DISK MODE. THEY ARE
STILL TROUBLESHOOTING THE PROBLEMS WITH GOES-13...AT THIS TIME
THERE IS NO ETA FOR RETURN TO SERVICE.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Good morning all, anyone know what happened to the Satellite at the NHC.


Morning, Gordy. There's some info if you read back, but it's not working currently.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Good morning all, anyone know what happened to the Satellite at the NHC.

read back and you'll find out.
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Good morning all, anyone know what happened to the Satellite at the NHC.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
I apparently live in the void now.


Honestly, I think many people here live in a void of some kind. lol
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
I apparently live in the void now.

mee too! welcome to the club!:)
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
We have a new TD in the West Pac, TD 19W. Track and intensity forecast will be available soon.



They are going with what the ECMWF is showing.
19W won't hit Japan.





Jelawat will be at her peak for another 24hrs.
125kts gusts to 150kts. mind you, Sanba was never predicted to hit cat 5 strength so I wouldn't be surprised to see Jelawat become a 5.




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Right now it is about 56 degrees here in Hampton Roads. Probably the coldest it has been since April.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
Good morning. Jelawat is pretty much done with its EWRC. T numbers have shot back up and suggest the storm is a solid Cat 4. I wouldn't rule a Cat 5 out today.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7849
Quoting BahaHurican:
Currently 77 here... prolly the coolest it's been at night since .... May?

Hope this is a sign of cooler days this week as well.


Last week we had a couple of nights that were cool. It was great. Of course, in a couple of months I'll be whining for spring and warmer temps. *G*
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Currently 77 here... prolly the coolest it's been at night since .... May?

Hope this is a sign of cooler days this week as well.
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Indoor temperature and humidity going up, pressure going down...
here in middle England.

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Morning all.... looking like Miriam may get to major storm today... and a possibility of becoming the most impressive EPac storm of the season....

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Present:

9 Hours ago:


Miriam going through RI.
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Good morning, everyone. Another balmy day in Louisiana, 71 degrees already with a heat index of 76. Really? A heat index and the sun isn't even up yet. Recess with the kids will be another hot one.
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.............good morning folks!..nice couple of days here in florida, storms are gone in my part of florida..have a great day
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Yes on the weird script warnings
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Nadine down to 50 mph
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Storm season hits Brisbane.
Video
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Wow, when I went to bed last night Miriam was only a tropical storm and now it's a Category 2 as of the 09:00 UTC advisory?

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 240821
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
200 AM PDT MON SEP 24 2012

...CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE MIRIAM RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 112.2W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MIRIAM IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND MIRIAM COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.