Nadine is back; Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 typhoon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2012

Share this Blog
37
+

Tropical Storm Nadine is back, like a nasty cold you just can't get rid of. Nadine had moved southeastwards over cool waters on Friday and Saturday, which robbed the storm of its heavy thunderstorms and tropical characteristics. But Nadine wandered back to the west this Sunday morning over slightly warmer waters, allowing the storm to regain its heavy thunderstorms and its name. Steering currents favor a continued westwards motion for Nadine, keeping the storm far enough south of the Azores Islands that they will see only very sporadic rain showers over the next few days. Nadine will likely turn to the north over the middle Atlantic late this week, but will still probably be around a week from now. The storm is not likely to threaten any land areas for at least the next seven days.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine, taken at 9:50 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 storm
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Jelawat put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification, strengthening from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds in just 24 hours. Jelawat is located about 200 miles to the east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm's outer spiral bands are bringing moderate rains to the eastern Philippines. Jelawat is expected to move slowly to the north-northwest to northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, through Tuesday. The predicted path is far enough from the Philippines to spare the islands the kind of torrential rains capable of causing major flooding. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, and Jelawat is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content of over 100 KJ/cm^2, which is exceptionally high. These favorable conditions for intensification have prompted the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to predict that Jelawat will become a Category 5 typhoon by Monday. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organzied typhoon with a large symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. There remains a huge uncertainty on where Jelawat might go. The computer models fall into two distinct camps, 350 miles apart, for Jelawat's 3-day position. The models are even more divergent--700 miles apart--for the storm's 5-day position. The more westward solution provided by our two top models, the ECMWF and GFS, is the one currently depicted in the official Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast. Given the large spread in models, the 3 - 5 day forecast for Jelawat is low-confidence.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Jelawat taken at 4:32 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropical Storm Miriam in the Eastern Pacific growing more organized
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam appears poised to put on a burst of rapid intensification that would make it a hurricane on Monday. Our two top models, the GFS and ECMWF, are divergent in their long-range predictions for Miriam. The GFS shows Miriam hitting central Baja on Friday, while the ECMWF keeps the storm offshore, dissipating it a few hundred miles off the Baja coast.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 492 - 442

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11Blog Index

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


yeah i linked to this on here a few days ago, wonder what is causing it.

GOES-13 having some probs up there.
Hit some debris?


dunno GASZ
maybe it ran into some of this..
Link Huge Defunct Satellite Falling to Earth Faster Than Expected, NASA Says

6.5 tons headed for earth on 9/23 give or take a few days.

"UARS satellite carries no toxic propellant (NASA used up all the fuel in 2005).

The debris is expected to fall over a swath of Earth about 500 miles (804 kilometers) long, NASA officials said."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning Everyone! Beautiful fall day here on the coast of NC. It dont get no better than this!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
First interesting thing 180hrs:


Second interesting thing 252hrs:
Yes yes yeeees!.


Well as for as the difficulties with the satellites ain't nothing going on in the Atlantic anyway so I'm not freaking out.Must be a idication the season is almost over.Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Highest rainfall I have found from Typhoon Jelawat is in Virac City, Catanduanes
Current rain rate 22.606mm/hr

Map showing location Virac City, Catanduanes


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If the Satt links ever went down during an active/threatening storm period, only possible "replacement" I can think of would be to use Air Force Recon plane like the U-2 (Blackbird SR-71 retired years ago) or the NOAA assigned Global Hawk Drone for pics and other data as to general direction and intensity towards landfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Link Increased Noise in GOES 13- September 21st

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/113 92


yeah i linked to this on here a few days ago, wonder what is causing it.

GOES-13 having some probs up there.
Hit some debris?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
First interesting thing 180hrs:


Second interesting thing 252hrs:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Link Increased Noise in GOES 13- September 21st

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/113 92

Here's the latest:
Link CIMSS satellite blog Sept 24

oh well, guess I'd better get on with my 'manic monday'
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
455 KarinK: Nadine is reaching the other bank and is heading towards Canary Islands. Since yesterday we have a weather alarm and today the police closed some west coast beaches at La Palma. Yesterday we had a short stormy period but since then it's quiet.

Nadine had been headed toward the Canaries. While you probably felt some of its outer bands yesterday, and may still be feeling its storm waves and associated rip currents, Nadine has looped over its previous path and is heading in the direction of NovaScotia again

YAW-Halifax :: CVU-Corvo :: SPC-LaPalma ::

The top dot on the kinked line is the northernmost position reached by Nadine
The bottom dot on the kinked line is Nadine's most recent position
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
I feel better with the satellite down during the peak of hurricane season. What you don't know can't hurt you.

Weather Satellite Funding Threatened by Sequestration ("The Fiscal Cliff"):
Link

Thank goodness there is no intensifying Cat 3 heading towards Florida right now, all we'd have is this sort of data.


this is Nadine
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You know what would be funny? The Sat to be down for a week, and then when it comes back up there is a storm out there. The blog would blow up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
480. etxwx
A slow blog gives me time to read the news and this avian malaria story is a bit worrisome. This type of malaria is not a threat to humans, but could be bad for northern bird species that have not encountered the disease and have no resistance to it.

Avian Malaria Found in Alaska Birds
Posted 9.24.12 by Mike Dunham | The Anchorage Daily News

ANCHORAGE, Alaska — A new study reports that a form of malaria, generally considered a tropical disease, is being contracted by birds as far north as Fairbanks. The report was published in the science journal PLOS ONE on Wednesday.

"It is predicted that malaria parasites will spread to both higher altitudes and latitudes with global warming," it says.

That may not be as alarming as it sounds. Avian malaria cannot be transmitted to people.

"While the parasites are related, they are not the same and it would be stretch to predict human malaria in the near future in Alaska," said Karsten Hueffer, a specialist in microbiology and infectious diseases with the Alaska Institutional Development Award Biomedical Excellence based at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.

Read more here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
479. JLPR2
Nadine keep on spinning.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lol Snow!!! lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This date 2005, had a early morning visit from Hurricane Rita here in southwest La/Tx.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning. With the Satt loops down, there will be no "blob" talk cluttering the Blog until further notice..............
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gordydunnot:
Chicklit that was my impression an Ocean full or at least a Gulf full of moisture to the southwest of Fl.

Hi Gordy, does look like stew out there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No satellite plus almost no TC activity in Atlantic Basin = Season over: 14-8-1, a very strange lopsided season and now with technical difficulties. Next season please
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting etxwx:
Amid the stories of weather destruction and genuine personal tragedy we also have this:
Termites eat into Imelda's designer shoes, clothes collections
By JIM GOMEZ | Associated Press
Excerpt: MANILA (AP) %u2014 Termites, storms and neglect have damaged part of former Philippine first lady Imelda Marcos' legendary collection of shoes and other possessions left behind after she and her dictator husband were driven into U.S. exile by a 1986 popular revolt.
More (if you really care about the fate of her shoes) can be found here.

I have seen a lot of the historic places on Luzon Island, Philippines, including the Marcos museum which has Ferdinand Marcos body embalmed and displayed in a glass box. Photograph is prohibited in that part of the museum. Rumor has it, the body is not real, but you didn't hear it from me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Chicklit that was my impression an Ocean full or at least a Gulf full of moisture to the southwest of Fl.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link GOES 13 Spacecraft Status Summary


Says GOES 13 is either operational or operational with limitations.

Link The following special bulletins give you information about NOAA's satellite operations. Visit often for the latest information affecting data delivery.
This will probably tell you more.

e.g.
Subject: Product Outage/Anomaly: GOES-13 Sounder and Imager This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
--------------010608000805040108020709
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

Update#12: GOES-15 Full Disk images will be transmitted thru the GOES-13 GVAR as of 0030 UTC.

Status:Imager out of service since September 23, 2012 at 2122 UTC Sounder out of service since September 23, 2012 at 1126 UTC

LRIT East out of service since September 23, 2012 at 2122 UTC

GOES 15 imagery will be sent to both LRIT East and
LRIT West until the anomaly with GOES-13 is resolved

The Engineers continue to investigate, no return to service time available
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
what a mess of storms in the gulf of mexico
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wowza
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I feel better with the satellite down during the peak of hurricane season. What you don't know can't hurt you.

Weather Satellite Funding Threatened by Sequestration ("The Fiscal Cliff"):
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
good morning,

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE POSITION OF THE WAVE WAS CHANGED AND MOVED MORE EASTWARD BASED ON THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

GOM
...SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND 90W. COLD CLOUD TOPS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE GULF WATERS FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 90W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lobdelse81:
Well, I guess the satellite is nonfunctional until further notice-could you imagine if the satellite had some catastrophic malfunction not allowing us to see anything for months in the Atlantic basin and also if there were no additional named storms that formed this year....this blog would self-destruct until June 2013, lol. And we would be pulling our hairs until then.


Corneal mass ejection maybe? There has been a lot of sun activity the past few months. You'd think they have backups up there. Unless they went down too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Igor was way more prettier than the "we don't know what the hell that name means" Jelawat.Well my opinion anyway...and I still refuse to believe that Igor was just a strong cat 4.He probably peaked at cat 5 for a short while.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, I guess the satellite is nonfunctional until further notice-could you imagine if the satellite had some catastrophic malfunction not allowing us to see anything for months in the Atlantic basin and also if there were no additional named storms that formed this year....this blog would self-destruct until June 2013, lol. And we would be pulling our hairs until then.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Miriam has turned out to be quite an impressive storm so far. Her eye is quite small though so I wonder if a replacement cycle is going to happen soon. At any rate I think this one is worth watching if she recurves to the Northeast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
460. etxwx
Amid the stories of weather destruction and genuine personal tragedy we also have this:
Termites eat into Imelda's designer shoes, clothes collections
By JIM GOMEZ | Associated Press
Excerpt: MANILA (AP) — Termites, storms and neglect have damaged part of former Philippine first lady Imelda Marcos' legendary collection of shoes and other possessions left behind after she and her dictator husband were driven into U.S. exile by a 1986 popular revolt.
More (if you really care about the fate of her shoes) can be found here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Miriam RGB Image
Looks to be in really great shape



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
458. etxwx
Good morning all...
Here's the current Jelawat update from Dave Ornauer's Pacific Storm Blog via Stars and Stripes:

9 p.m. Monday, Sept. 24, Japan time: Well, Jelawat’s status as a super-duper typhoon didn’t last long. Joint Typhoon Warning Center downgraded it to a regular ol’ run-of-the-mill typhoon with its 6 p.m. (local time) update.

But don’t relax yet, folks. This thing is still a powerful storm whose western quadrants are pummeling the Philippines at the moment. Jelawat is forecast to remain a strong Category 3-equivalent storm, curving northwest toward Taiwan later in the week, then curving north-northeast.

And whether that means a visit to Okinawa is in the cards for yet another weekend still is up in the air. Two clearly delineated groups of computer-generated dynamic aids are still all over the lot, some having it curve sharply east, the other continuing northwest, with a spread of 730 miles.

Jelawat would still be at least five days away from Okinawa, and would still be packing 110-mph winds and 132-mph gusts at 3 p.m. Saturday, when it’s forecast to be 250 miles southwest of Okinawa.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
What happened to the Satellites?

Non-functional until further notice..which..may not be anytime soon.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32531
What happened to the Satellites?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nadine is reaching the other bank and is heading towards Canary Islands. Since yesterday we have a weather alarm and today the police closed some west coast beaches at La Palma. Yesterday we had a short stormy period but since then it's quiet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Haven't seen anything quite like Typhoon Jelawat in the Atlantic since 2007, though Igor was pretty impressive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6065
Quoting lobdelse81:
Is there anything that is likely to form in the Atlantic Basin anytime in the foreseeable future???
The models have been hit or miss with a storm in the S.W caribbean about 200+ hours out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see the gulf is closed down for business.Not a surprise as the cold fronts have been becoming frequent(and stronger) and another is suppose to be in my backyard come later this week.I'm starting to take a liking to nature now after the hell we went through this summer.I'm still hoping this all leads up to a snow event in December.I'm mean we're really lacking here.Almost forgot what 20 degrees feels like and snow as well o_0.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is there anything that is likely to form in the Atlantic Basin anytime in the foreseeable future???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
I see Miriam is now a major. No surprise there given her appearance:

EP, 13, 2012092412, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1125W, 100, 962, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 20, 1009, 250, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MIRIAM, D,
the fourth of the season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You can write about it if you think anything is going to form in the Gulf with 70 knots of wind shear..

I ain't seeing it happen either, bit old but still.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jelawat's eye is showing a beautiful stadium effect
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
I see Miriam is now a major. No surprise there given her appearance:

EP, 13, 2012092412, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1125W, 100, 962, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 20, 1009, 250, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MIRIAM, D,

Yeah I'm not surprised at all, I think still only a cat3 though.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7959
I see Miriam is now a major. No surprise there given her appearance:

EP, 13, 2012092412, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1125W, 100, 962, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 20, 1009, 250, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MIRIAM, D,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I can write about it even if I don't think anything is going to form in the Gulf with 70 knots of wind shear..

Well noyhing is going to form in the GOM right now but no one can stop anyone from talking.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7959
Little counterclockwise jog of Miriam's eye:


I will be back in a while
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You can write about it if you think anything is going to form in the Gulf with 70 knots of wind shear..


I can write about it even if I don't think anything is going to form in the Gulf with 70 knots of wind shear..
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737

Viewing: 492 - 442

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.