Nadine is back; Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 typhoon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2012

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Tropical Storm Nadine is back, like a nasty cold you just can't get rid of. Nadine had moved southeastwards over cool waters on Friday and Saturday, which robbed the storm of its heavy thunderstorms and tropical characteristics. But Nadine wandered back to the west this Sunday morning over slightly warmer waters, allowing the storm to regain its heavy thunderstorms and its name. Steering currents favor a continued westwards motion for Nadine, keeping the storm far enough south of the Azores Islands that they will see only very sporadic rain showers over the next few days. Nadine will likely turn to the north over the middle Atlantic late this week, but will still probably be around a week from now. The storm is not likely to threaten any land areas for at least the next seven days.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine, taken at 9:50 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Jelawat explodes into a Category 4 storm
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Jelawat put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification, strengthening from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds in just 24 hours. Jelawat is located about 200 miles to the east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm's outer spiral bands are bringing moderate rains to the eastern Philippines. Jelawat is expected to move slowly to the north-northwest to northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, through Tuesday. The predicted path is far enough from the Philippines to spare the islands the kind of torrential rains capable of causing major flooding. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, and Jelawat is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content of over 100 KJ/cm^2, which is exceptionally high. These favorable conditions for intensification have prompted the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to predict that Jelawat will become a Category 5 typhoon by Monday. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organzied typhoon with a large symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. There remains a huge uncertainty on where Jelawat might go. The computer models fall into two distinct camps, 350 miles apart, for Jelawat's 3-day position. The models are even more divergent--700 miles apart--for the storm's 5-day position. The more westward solution provided by our two top models, the ECMWF and GFS, is the one currently depicted in the official Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast. Given the large spread in models, the 3 - 5 day forecast for Jelawat is low-confidence.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Jelawat taken at 4:32 am EDT Sunday, September 23, 2012. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropical Storm Miriam in the Eastern Pacific growing more organized
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam appears poised to put on a burst of rapid intensification that would make it a hurricane on Monday. Our two top models, the GFS and ECMWF, are divergent in their long-range predictions for Miriam. The GFS shows Miriam hitting central Baja on Friday, while the ECMWF keeps the storm offshore, dissipating it a few hundred miles off the Baja coast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


We had a pretty good soaking over the weekend. Heavy thunderstorms and heavy rain. A couple of good ones went over us today. By the way, I see Nadine is moving west. Who would ever have thought it?? :)

Only the Most Cleverest of them all.
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Quoting Grothar:


What about hoof and mouth disease?


I've had foot in mouth before...
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Quoting Grothar:


What about hoof and mouth disease?


Boiling the hooves to make gelatin would kill any foot and mouth disease viruses. If there are foot and mouth viruses in hooves, that is. Wouldn't know about that.

People have been known to catch the disease, but that's extremely rare.
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Quoting Grothar:
Jelawat is scary looking. They may have to rename her Jigawat.

Megawatt.
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Quoting Skyepony:


Makes you wunder if some of the mad cow feeding rules haven't been let lax. In the USA we aren't suppose to feed cows to cows to keep mad cow out. Can't remember what the rule on gelatin is. I think it's made from hooves so that might be alright. But yeah that's got to change what's in the milk..Yuck..

With a 60% hay crop failure..a desperate winter is coming. People trying to find hay for livestock though out last winter thought that was bad..this should be worse than anything I've seen. Good year to buy up & store all the hay you'll need til first cutting next year. (generally 3rd week in May)


What about hoof and mouth disease?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26475
Quoting pottery:

It's been coming down hard with all the apps like lights and noise here, for the last 2 hours or so.
Good stuff ! We need it.


We had a pretty good soaking over the weekend. Heavy thunderstorms and heavy rain. A couple of good ones went over us today. By the way, I see Nadine is moving west. Who would ever have thought it?? :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26475
86. mati
Quoting UKHWatcher:


As many of you will know, the UK Beef industry stuttered and nearly folded in ten years following the BSE Crisis... Let's hope them cow brains and spines get properly boiled!


Unfort cooking does not destroy prions. You just cannot have them in the food chain period.
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Quoting UKHWatcher:


As many of you will know, the UK Beef industry stuttered and nearly folded in ten years following the BSE Crisis... Let's hope them cow brains and spines get properly boiled!

Speaking of boiling, who was it that said Nadine would move west before it was over? I can't quite remember....some Norwegian guy, I think. :)
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Nadine is struggling:

23/1800 UTC 30.9N 25.5W T1.5/2.5 NADINE -- Atlantic

I know that every storm has an outlier model, but the LBAR on Nadine is hilarious. Takes her over Gibraltar, destroys the Spanish and French Riviaras. make a hard left to flatten Paris, and then heads out into the English Channel, with London next on the list. This model has got to win the prize for the weirdest one of the year.

BTW, I think whatever's left of her actually ends up in Iceland.
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83. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Progster:



Cannibalism! Marshmallows are made with beef gelatin. Yuck, huh?


Makes you wunder if some of the mad cow feeding rules haven't been let lax. In the USA we aren't suppose to feed cows to cows to keep mad cow out. Can't remember what the rule on gelatin is. I think it's made from hooves so that might be alright. But yeah that's got to change what's in the milk..Yuck..

With a 60% hay crop failure..a desperate winter is coming. People trying to find hay for livestock though out last winter thought that was bad..this should be worse than anything I've seen. Good year to buy up & store all the hay you'll need til first cutting next year. (generally 3rd week in May)
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Quoting Progster:



Cannibalism! Marshmallows are made with beef gelatin. Yuck, huh?


As many of you will know, the UK Beef industry stuttered and nearly folded in ten years following the BSE Crisis... Let's hope them cow brains and spines get properly boiled!
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Quoting Skyepony:
Grim day for mountain climbers.. atleast 9 dead & 6 missing from an avalanche hitting their camp. Some have stopped climbing in the fall all together in this region because it's just become too dangerous.


Nepal has eight of the 14 highest peaks in the world. Climbers have complained in recent years that climbing conditions have deteriorated and risks of accidents have increased.

Veteran mountain guide Apa, who has climbed Mount Everest a record 21 times, traveled for months across Nepal earlier this year campaigning about the effects of global warming on the mountain peaks.

He told The Associated Press the mountains now have considerably less ice and snow, making it harder for climbers to use ice axes and crampons on their boots to get a grip on the slopes.

Loose snow also increases the risk of avalanches.


Without getting into the AGW aspect of this story, climbing any of the high peaks in Nepal, especially Manasulu, in September is just foolhardy. Manasalu is right on the Tibet border and picks up precipitation from both the Indian monsoon and storms from the Tibetan plains. The mountain itself is unusual for the Himalayas, with several broad swales and flat ridges, which leads to the development of many unstable snow overhangs and glacial melt dams. The snow is not only less in September, it's very fragile in terms of adhesion, and any unexpected wind storm can set off an avalanche. It's such a difficult climb that the first ascent wasn't made until 1956, three years after Mt. Everest was climbed. Since all the high peaks have been climbed, the real hotdoggers want to set records for things like earliest in the season to climb Manasalu. I trekked to Everest Base Camp (17,600 feet) in late October, 1993, and barely missed being caught in a huge avalanche. I wouldn't dream of trying it in September. Luckily for the surviving climbers, the Nepalese Army has some of the best high altitude rescue helicopter pilots on the world - if they didn't, I'm sure even more would have died.
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Miriam is close:

23/1800 UTC 15.6N 109.8W T4.0/4.0 MIRIAM -- East Pacific

Nadine is struggling:

23/1800 UTC 30.9N 25.5W T1.5/2.5 NADINE -- Atlantic
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Quoting VR46L:


Thanks Beell :)!! I was bored with her, guess I will have to keep an eye on her for the next 2 weeks ...


YW, V. In the model, it does not look like Nadine will contribute much energy to the "normal" far NE Atlantic weather for late Sept/early Oct.

We can check it again in a week or so!
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Quoting Skyepony:
Do to this year's horrid drought the food brokers are gathering up extra sweets to sell to the the highest bidders in the dairy feedlot business...to feed the dairy cows.

In the mix are cookies, gummy worms, marshmallows, fruit loops, orange peels, even dried cranberries. Cattlemen are feeding virtually anything they can get their hands on that will replace the starchy sugar content traditionally delivered to the animals through corn.



Cannibalism! Marshmallows are made with beef gelatin. Yuck, huh?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The 12z Euro is showing a big storm for the NE next week. Non tropical of course.


I am hoping for that sooooo much!!!
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Quoting Grothar:
Nice TW moving into the Caribbean.


It's been coming down hard with all the apps like lights and noise here, for the last 2 hours or so.
Good stuff ! We need it.
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The 12z Euro is showing a big storm for the NE next week. Non tropical of course.

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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Off topic: This Saints game is about to drive me crazy at this moment!

The Lions are losing again, they are driving me crazy.

To stay on topic, I'm under a frost advisory tonight. Jelawat is looking like another monster, not a surprise though. 93W also needs to be watched as that should be another typhoon.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Off topic: This Saints game is about to drive me crazy at this moment!


Im tracking them all
Down with the saints(im a falcons fan)

93W:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Off topic: This Saints game is about to drive me crazy at this moment!
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70. Skyepony (Mod)
SEASON IN A BEER CAN: Jan Koeman of the Netherlands has captured an entire season in a single beer can. On June 21st, Koeman assembled a solargraph--a simple pinhole camera consisting of a beer can lined with photographic paper--and throughout the summer of 2012 he used it to record the sun's daily motion across the Dutch sky. On Sept. 21st, he removed the photo-paper for inspection:

"As you can see, the summer wasn't too bad at all!" says Koeman. "There was lots of sunshine in the backgarden of my parents in Middelburg."
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Quoting Thing342:
Sorry, got my dates confused.


No problem, was just wondering if I was going mad. :P
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68. Skyepony (Mod)
DENVER — The Colorado Water Conservation Board is holding a public hearing on a Durango-based company’s request to renew its cloud-seeding permit.

Western Weather Consultants wants to renew its permit for the next five winters so it can do cloud seeding for Denver Water, Colorado Springs Utilities and others. The goal is to boost precipitation and snowpack to benefit water users, from farmers to ski areas.

The company uses ground-based generators to produce silver iodide crystals that become the center of clouds.

The Colorado Water Conservation Board plans a public hearing Monday evening in Silverthorne on the request to renew the permit.
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Quoting beell:
12Z GFS 700mb. Nadine leaving the "Europe" model frame at far left center and re appearing upper left of frame around 132 hrs.

09/23 12Z GFS 700mb loop


Thanks Beell :)!! I was bored with her, guess I will have to keep an eye on her for the next 2 weeks ...
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66. Skyepony (Mod)
Do to this year's horrid drought the food brokers are gathering up extra sweets to sell to the the highest bidders in the dairy feedlot business...to feed the dairy cows.

In the mix are cookies, gummy worms, marshmallows, fruit loops, orange peels, even dried cranberries. Cattlemen are feeding virtually anything they can get their hands on that will replace the starchy sugar content traditionally delivered to the animals through corn.
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I believe the first frost advisories of the season have been issued for the South-East!


Frost Advisory
Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on September 23, 2012


... Frost advisory in effect from 1 am to 9 am EDT Monday...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a frost advisory... which is in effect from 1 am to 9 am EDT
Monday.

* Locations... most of the North Carolina mountains.

* Temperatures... lows in the mid to upper 30s. A very few
locations could briefly experience freezing temperatures right
around sunrise.

* Winds... north 5 mph or less.

* Impacts... areas of frost will develop in some locations across
the advisory area. Tender vegetation could be killed by the
frost.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A frost advisory means that frost is possible. Sensitive outdoor
plants may be killed if left uncovered.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


??

Today is the 23rd, making it the 13th day since Nadine's formation.

120 hours out (5 days out), would be the 18th day. Not the 24th.

No way is Nadine lasting another 15 days from now.
Sorry, got my dates confused.
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63. Skyepony (Mod)
Grim day for mountain climbers.. atleast 9 dead & 6 missing from an avalanche hitting their camp. Some have stopped climbing in the fall all together in this region because it's just become too dangerous.


Nepal has eight of the 14 highest peaks in the world. Climbers have complained in recent years that climbing conditions have deteriorated and risks of accidents have increased.

Veteran mountain guide Apa, who has climbed Mount Everest a record 21 times, traveled for months across Nepal earlier this year campaigning about the effects of global warming on the mountain peaks.

He told The Associated Press the mountains now have considerably less ice and snow, making it harder for climbers to use ice axes and crampons on their boots to get a grip on the slopes.

Loose snow also increases the risk of avalanches.

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Nadine:



Miriam:



Jelawat:

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12Z GFS 700mb. Nadine leaving the "Europe" model frame at far left center and re appearing upper left of frame around 132 hrs.

09/23 12Z GFS 700mb loop
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All times in GMT. Derived from NHC's 23Sept.6pm ATCF data for TropicalStormNadine
23Sept.12am: Nadine'sLO had been headed 89.9°East @ 2.0mph(3.2km/h)
23Sept.06am: TS.Nadine had been headed 89.9° East @ 2.0mph(3.2km/h)
23Sept.12pm: TS.Nadine had been headed 60.0°ENEast@2.3mph(3.7km/h)
23Sept.12pm: TS.Nadine had been headed 319.3°NWest@6.1mph(9.8km/h)

FNC-Madeira :: LIS-Lisbon :: RAK-Marrakesh ::

The top kinked line traces Nadine's path on its 1st day after reaching its northernmost position
The middle kinked line traces Nadine's path on its 2nd day after reaching its northernmost position
The bottom kinked line traces Nadine's path on its 3rd day after reaching its northernmost position

Copy&paste cvu, fnc, vde, lis, rak, 37.3n31.7w- 36.9n30.9w- 36.4n29.8w- 36.2n28.7w- 35.8n28.2w, 35.8n28.2w- 35.3n27.2w- 34.6n27.5w- 33.5n27.2w- 32.5n26.8w, 32.5n26.8w- 31.8n26.7w- 30.8n26.5w- 30.4n26.0w- 30.4n25.8w, 30.4n25.8w-30.4n25.6w, 30.4n25.6w-30.5n25.4w, 30.5n25.4w-30.9n25.8w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
18z Best Track for Miriam.

EP, 13, 2012092318, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1101W, 55, 996, TS

18z Best Track for Nadine.

AL, 14, 2012092318, , BEST, 0, 309N, 258W, 50, 986, TS
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Quoting biowizard:
Nadine "won't threaten any land areas" - er, not quite ... all of that moisture and energy that was sapped out of Nadine during her brief disappearance, is now bringing gales and heavy rains to Great Britain. And with all our trees still in full summer leaf, that can mean life-threatening disruption. Our Met Office has issued an "amber" warning for much of Southern England because of Nadine's spin off. But hey ho, the garden won't need watering this week!

Brian


North Atlantic GFS 240HRS in, Nadine is going to be fun to the British Isles and Iceland...

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Quoting Thing342:
Nadine formed on 11 September, and by 120hr (Nadine's 24th day of existence) the NHC has it as an 80mph hurricane over fairly warm waters. It could, theoretically challenge the 1899 Hurricane (28 Days) for the longest ever in the Atlantic.


??

Today is the 23rd, making it the 13th day since Nadine's formation.

120 hours out (5 days out), would be the 18th day. Not the 24th.

No way is Nadine lasting another 15 days from now.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
How many here understand that Jelawat

is most definitely a

FISH storm!


Fish Storm:


Fish Stadium Effect Eye:

Also notice the fishcane hunter in the center
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
How many here understand that Jelawat

is most definitely a

FISH storm!
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
Quoting biowizard:
Nadine "won't threaten any land areas" - er, not quite ... all of that moisture and energy that was sapped out of Nadine during her brief disappearance, is now bringing gales and heavy rains to Great Britain. And with all our trees still in full summer leaf, that can mean life-threatening disruption. Our Met Office has issued an "amber" warning for much of Southern England because of Nadine's spin off. But hey ho, the garden won't need watering this week!

Brian


That would be Nadine's daughter, Karin. ;)

Stay safe over there!!
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Quoting Grothar:
Jelawat is scary looking. They may have to rename her Jigawat.




1.21 ??? Great Scott!
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Quoting Slamguitar:
Thanks Doc! Jelawat sure is interesting and Nadine sure is a fighter!

From last blog:



Yup, you can see a Nadine give birth to that low clearly on the TPW:


Nice Video! And we've been feeling the effects of that spin-off low all day (and apparently will continue to for the next several days)!

Brian
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Nadine "won't threaten any land areas" - er, not quite ... all of that moisture and energy that was sapped out of Nadine during her brief disappearance, is now bringing gales and heavy rains to Great Britain. And with all our trees still in full summer leaf, that can mean life-threatening disruption. Our Met Office has issued an "amber" warning for much of Southern England because of Nadine's spin off. But hey ho, the garden won't need watering this week!

Brian
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Prediction of rain in Palm Beach county 80%
Fact 0%

But ok by me... Go Dolphins
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Quoting Grothar:
Nice TW moving into the Caribbean.

maybe when it reach the western caribbean or the eastern pacific it will develop into something.
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Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Thank you Dr. Masters...Suprised to see you working on Sunday
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Quoting LargoFl:


What's going on there over the northern Yucatan?
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Jelawat is scary looking. They may have to rename her Jigawat.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26475

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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