Nadine goes extratropical; the Atlantic is quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2012

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For the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center is not issuing advisories on an active tropical cyclone in the Atlantic. On Friday, Tropical Storm Nadine finally transitioned to an extratropical storm, due to cool waters and the influence of an upper-level low. The final fate of Nadine is very uncertain; the extratropical version of Nadine is expected to meander between the Azores Islands and Europe for at least a week, and could potentially become a tropical storm again. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the ex-Nadine a 40% chance of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone by Monday morning.

We've been in a relatively quiet period in the Atlantic for over a week now, and the computer models predict that this quiet period will last at least another week. The quiet period is primarily due to the fact that the African Monsoon has been less active, and there are fewer tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. Even the busiest hurricane season has quiet periods like this, and we should not assume that hurricane season is over. The first two weeks of October are typically a busy period for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, and I expect that we'll see one or two more names storms in the Atlantic before October 15.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Ex-Tropical Storm Nadine, taken at 9:05 am EDT Saturday, September 22, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jelawat a threat to the Philippine Islands
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Jelawat threatens to become the most dangerous typhoon of the year for the Philippine Islands. Jelawat is located about 200 miles to the east of the islands, and is expected to move slowly to the northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, through Tuesday. Wind shear is moderate 5 - 15 knots, and Jelawat is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content of over 100 KJ/cm^2, which is exceptionally high. These favorable conditions for intensification have prompted the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to predict that Jelawat will become a Category 4 typhoon by Tuesday. Satellite loops show that Jelawat is becoming more organized, with a large symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. The long-range path of Jelawat is very uncertain; the 00Z ECMWF model takes the storm over the northern end of Luzon Island in the Philippines on Wednesday, while the latest 12Z run of the GFS model keep the storm several hundred miles east of the Philippines through Wednesday.


Figure 2. IR satellite image of Jelawat taken at 12:30 pm EDT Saturday, September 22, 2012.

I'll have a new post on Monday at the latest. Happy first day of fall!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting washingtonian115:
How do you pronounce Jelawat?

I pronounce it like the unit of energy, how it is supposed to be pronounced idk.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
This is for Miriam:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 SEP 2012 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 14:25:54 N Lon : 108:00:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 997.9mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.6 3.6


She doesn't appear particularly well organized but she's likely a little stronger than 40mph:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 88 Comments: 8315
When looking at the Tropical wave along 45w and 13n, doesen't it have some spin but very little convection???
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Quoting washingtonian115:
How do you pronounce Jelawat?

I have no clue. But I've been pronouncing it gel-a-watt.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So, Beven states that convection has increased since earlier, and he also states that environmental conditions are favorable for regeneration, but he leaves the percentage at 40%.

Makes perfect sense....not really.


Let your thinking be heard at NHC with an email. You know people over there.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15668
Quoting washingtonian115:
How do you pronounce Jelawat?

Idk. But I'd think it'd be jell-a-watt
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So, Beven states that convection has increased since earlier, and he also states that environmental conditions are favorable for regeneration, but he leaves the percentage at 40%.

Makes perfect sense....not really.

Obviously makes perfect sense, the chance of development is higher than what Beven said. It is more like 50-60% with what he said.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
How do you pronounce Jelawat?
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So, Beven states that convection has increased since earlier, and he also states that environmental conditions are favorable for regeneration, but he leaves the percentage at 40%.

Makes perfect sense....not really.
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Post-Nadine still at 40%




On another note, here is my NWS forecast for tonight:

A slight chance of rain showers and sleet before 2am. Patchy frost after 2am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 38. Light west wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
This looks like a tropical blog again. About time.
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Ex-Nadine stays at 40%, I think it should be higher.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT
575 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY
WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT
575 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY
WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MIRIAM LOCATED ABOUT 610 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON MIRIAM ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ33 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON MIRIAM ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMEP3.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Finally someone posted, I thought I scared everyone away:) Eye is starting to pop out, Jelawat is a great looking storm.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

More convection it has than at any point over the past 24 hours. I think it's gradually becoming fully warm core again as it detaches from the front.

I figured Nadine would regenerate back into a tropical storm and it is looking more and more likely. I think the chances should be raised at the 8pm TWO to high.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

More convection it has than at any point over the past 24 hours. I think it's gradually becoming fully warm core again as it detaches from the front.


Agreed.
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Quoting Civicane49:
Ex-Nadine is still producing convection around the center.


More convection it has than at any point over the past 24 hours. I think it's gradually becoming fully warm core again as it detaches from the front.
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Latest ASCAT of Jelawat shows the nice circulation, I'm sure this is not a tropical storm anymore. A great environment will allow Jelawat to continue to strengthen quickly. I think Jelawat will become, or get close, to super typhoon strength.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
Ex-Nadine is still producing convection around the center.

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post 154

Thank you
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well just had some heavy rain with gusty showers here.

I was supposed to get rain/storms, not one drop yet. I still could get something later tonight.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
I can say with high confidence that Jelawat is in RI right now. All it needed to do was close off the eyewall, which according to this microwave pass it has very nearly done, and the rocket fuel underneath it and favorable upper level conditions will do the rest... A Cat 2 by morning would be no surprise.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 88 Comments: 8315
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is not a tropical storm.


That is a strengthening typhoon, should be a typhoon nest advisory imo since it isn't one already.
That's no moon, it's a space station.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is not a tropical storm.



This is more like a typhoon now.

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Well just had some heavy rain with gusty showers here.
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This is not a tropical storm.

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Quoting Dakster:


You could start looking here. I have never bought seeds from them, but a quick google search turned them up.

http://parkseed.com/product.aspx?p=00900-PK-P1&am p;gc lid=CPa15NmhyrICFU6mPAodgC8AjQ

Link
Park Seed is a very reliable company.... One of the best
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Quoting Autistic2:
I live i zone 9 and want to grow some of those loffas. Where can I buy the seeds?


You could start looking here. I have never bought seeds from them, but a quick google search turned them up.

http://parkseed.com/product.aspx?p=00900-PK-P1&gc lid=CPa15NmhyrICFU6mPAodgC8AjQ

Link
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Quoting liquidsquid:


I am afraid those are windmill farms that the radar system cannot seem to reject.


Wait, are you being serious? I had noticed that the radar didn't seem to totally correlate with the best peaks in the terrain, but windmill farms?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Keeper.You have mail
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WunderBlogs - Dr. Masters' Blog Content Rules
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Quoting Autistic2:
I live i zone 9 and want to grow some of those loffas. Where can I buy the seeds?
Not an easy sponge plant to grow.....Takes time and patients
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Quoting HurrikanEB:
Some nice topographic lifting occuring south of Attica, NY (east of Buffalo)


I am afraid those are windmill farms that the radar system cannot seem to reject.
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Lots of convection in west Africa, but no real organized waves coming off the coast. I think we can officially declare CV season over. You can also see ex Nadine at the top of the image, she's in no hurry to go anywhere.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 88 Comments: 8315
I live i zone 9 and want to grow some of those loffas. Where can I buy the seeds?
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Out of all the people on this blog you could have a problem with, you have one with TA? He posts all of the time and never has a conflict with anyone. The one with the hostile attitude has been you from what I've seen.

Sorry for butting in, but this is a feud that seems pointless.
Miss.........I'm sure you didn't catch what went on a few days ago......So I will let it pass. It wasn't pretty.
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Some nice topographic lifting occuring south of Attica, NY (east of Buffalo)



Shows up even better (along with the topography) on the interactive wunderground map Link
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Quoting SSideBrac:
Whilst following TS Jelewat's latest antics in the W Pac, I take some time to read the blog and am bemused by elements of one entry concerning the loss of USMC aircraft to a ground attack.

I am sure there will be hard, searching questions regarding what appears (given the very limited details) to be a fall down in base security - that said, Airfields, given their size and need for wide open spaces, are notoriously hard to defend.

I am also baffled as to quite where one would expect Close Air Support/Ground attack aircraft to be based, apart from in-country, as close to the troops that they support, in order to react quickly - that is what Close Air Support means. To suggest Carrier basing in this context of Afghanistan is, IMHO, stunningly naive - raises problems such as overflights of sovereign airspace, need for tankers, lack of rapid response times, inability to "loiter" near target areas and many more.

Sadly, the loss of life, and included the loss of a Squadron Commander, is probably a much more telling blow than the loss of the airframes - no mention was made of that, which I find utterly disrespectful.

I will not elaborate on the bigotry and disdain shown for a major world religion

Anyway - back to weather and I will let the "armchair general" solve the tactics and strategy of this war.


Actually, there was one close air support action in that attack and it did make a significant contribution to bringing the attack to an end rather quickly. Only it wasn't quick enough.

Didn't the press report, early on, that the attackers wore US Army uniforms? Camp Bastion appears to be the actual target because many believed that Prince Harry was there and the media did also mention it early on as well.

The rest of the story really does need to be kept far from those who would seek to repeat the attack elsewhere. So , I shall refrain from further comment, if for no other reason than to protect our sons and daughters who are stationed there or work there.


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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
wx13......Pinky truce...... You just struck me wrong a few days ago ..................Let's start over................. It might work, It might not.


Out of all the people on this blog you could have a problem with, you have one with TA? He posts all of the time and never has a conflict with anyone. The one with the hostile attitude has been you from what I've seen.

Sorry for butting in, but this is a feud that seems pointless.
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The Sun is up in the West Pac:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 88 Comments: 8315
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
605 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN FOREST COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHERN VENANGO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 603 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF COOPERSTOWN...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
COOPERSTOWN... OIL CREEK STATE PARK...
WEST HICKORY... TIONESTA... PLEASANTVILLE...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE. 1-877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 4148 7933 4142 8013 4149 8014 4149 8001
4157 7991 4159 7986 4163 7982 4163 7933
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 262DEG 27KT 4156 8008



98
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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