Nadine goes extratropical; the Atlantic is quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2012

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For the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center is not issuing advisories on an active tropical cyclone in the Atlantic. On Friday, Tropical Storm Nadine finally transitioned to an extratropical storm, due to cool waters and the influence of an upper-level low. The final fate of Nadine is very uncertain; the extratropical version of Nadine is expected to meander between the Azores Islands and Europe for at least a week, and could potentially become a tropical storm again. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the ex-Nadine a 40% chance of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone by Monday morning.

We've been in a relatively quiet period in the Atlantic for over a week now, and the computer models predict that this quiet period will last at least another week. The quiet period is primarily due to the fact that the African Monsoon has been less active, and there are fewer tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. Even the busiest hurricane season has quiet periods like this, and we should not assume that hurricane season is over. The first two weeks of October are typically a busy period for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, and I expect that we'll see one or two more names storms in the Atlantic before October 15.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Ex-Tropical Storm Nadine, taken at 9:05 am EDT Saturday, September 22, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jelawat a threat to the Philippine Islands
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Jelawat threatens to become the most dangerous typhoon of the year for the Philippine Islands. Jelawat is located about 200 miles to the east of the islands, and is expected to move slowly to the northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, through Tuesday. Wind shear is moderate 5 - 15 knots, and Jelawat is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content of over 100 KJ/cm^2, which is exceptionally high. These favorable conditions for intensification have prompted the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to predict that Jelawat will become a Category 4 typhoon by Tuesday. Satellite loops show that Jelawat is becoming more organized, with a large symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. The long-range path of Jelawat is very uncertain; the 00Z ECMWF model takes the storm over the northern end of Luzon Island in the Philippines on Wednesday, while the latest 12Z run of the GFS model keep the storm several hundred miles east of the Philippines through Wednesday.


Figure 2. IR satellite image of Jelawat taken at 12:30 pm EDT Saturday, September 22, 2012.

I'll have a new post on Monday at the latest. Happy first day of fall!

Jeff Masters

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487. notifbutwhen
11:10 AM GMT on November 30, 2012
Can anyone tell me what the classification of Sandy was at landfall? I'm not sure if this has been discussed here and apologize if it has, but I have been without much internet access here in Long Beach, NY

My questions:

Was Sandy technically a hurricane or hybrid system?

Was Sandy fed baroclinically and was the gulf stream involved?

Has anyone heard how this will affect the victims with Property Insurance, as far as "Hurricane Deductibles" go?

TIA!
Member Since: July 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
486. yqt1001
10:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Jelawat's EWRC is..almost done?



You can tell an EWRC is going on but convection doesn't show that the inner eyewall is almost gone.

Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
485. HurrMichaelOrl
5:11 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
As for local weather, the forecast shows no fronts bringing a dramatic cool down through the next week or so. Rather the temperatures are just on a VERY slow downward trend since the beginning of September. It will be like "summer-lite", with lows of 70-72F and highs 88-90 F (whereas summer is 73-75F lows and 91-94F highs).
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 950
484. HurrMichaelOrl
4:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
That would be something, if one year, a rare atmospheric pattern existed, causing a storm to survive for 1-2 entire months during hurricane season (similar to Nadine so far, but making several slow loops over a one to two moth period). Could happen.

Also, I don't recall seeing an Atlantic tropical cyclone become extratropical then fully regain tropical characteristics before. When is the last time this has happened, if ever?
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 950
483. Stormchaser2007
4:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
I haven't seen numbers like this in a long time.


Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 77% is 6.6 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 72% is 9.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 63% is 11.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 63% is 19.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
482. Slamguitar
4:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting Cotillion:
Nadine's an odd one. Relation to Karen, indeed.

Not only has she regained life tropically, but has also given birth to an extratropical low coming this way, bringing severe gales and possible flooding. Fun.

That's not all, though.

Guess what the FU of Berlin have named this low?



Yes.

Karin.

Someone has a sense of humour...


Yup, you can see a Nadine give birth to that low clearly on the TPW:

Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1176
481. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
480. goalexgo
4:38 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
The high builds west, Nadine drops a little farther south, and the trek to Wilmington begins. Oct 2 landfall, probably as a weak Cat 2. And it doesnt end there. Back to the Canarys, for one more loop. Can it possibly hit Wilmington twice?
Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 127
479. Matthias1967
4:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Imagine if Nadine traveled all the way across the Atlantic and threatened the US... I'm not suggesting that will happen but still that would be something.


Too much latitude already, I guess.
Member Since: August 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
478. Cotillion
4:31 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Nadine's an odd one. Relation to Karen, indeed.

Not only has she regained life tropically, but has also given birth to an extratropical low coming this way, bringing severe gales and possible flooding. Fun.

That's not all, though.

Guess what the FU of Berlin have named this low?



Yes.

Karin.

Someone has a sense of humour...
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
477. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
I just look at something we are on pair with 1990 the same number of storms hurricanes and major.1990 was an El Niño year?

1990 was a warm neutral year, very much like this year.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
476. wxchaser97
4:27 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
I got to go, bye everyone. Live long and prosper Nadine:)
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
475. allancalderini
4:27 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
I just look at something we are on pair with 1990 the same number of storms hurricanes and major.1990 was an El Niño year?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3704
474. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:27 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
93W is poised to become the next named storm of the 2012 Pacific typhoon season, Ewiniar.



Meanwhile...



I'd put it at 145 mph.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
473. Slamguitar
4:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Almost seems like we have a perpetual tropical system on our hands!
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1176
472. MAweatherboy1
4:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Imagine if Nadine traveled all the way across the Atlantic and threatened the US... I'm not suggesting that will happen but still that would be something.

She's got a long ways to go to get here:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7295
471. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The NHC's intensity forecast on Miriam is too aggressive I think. I don't see any evidence of an eyewall forming and it doesn't have much time left over warm waters.


The SHIPS gives the storm a 3/4 chance of 30-kt rapid intensification over the next 24 hours.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
470. wxchaser97
4:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting Matthias1967:


I won't be surprised if post-seasonal analysis reveals that Nadine actually did not loose tropical characteristics totally on yesterday.

I probably would, she was still attached to the front.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
469. MAweatherboy1
4:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Jelawat is probably a borderline Cat 4/5 right now.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7295
468. Matthias1967
4:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
She's probably Karin's twin since Karin will have a chance next year.


I won't be surprised if post-seasonal analysis reveals that Nadine actually did not loose tropical characteristics totally on yesterday.
Member Since: August 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
467. MAweatherboy1
4:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
The NHC's intensity forecast on Miriam is too aggressive I think. I don't see any evidence of an eyewall forming and it doesn't have much time left over warm waters.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7295
466. wxchaser97
4:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Everyone hide in* your bomb shelters! Karen's remnants finally resurfaced, and they're back to stay FOREVER.

Alright I got my shelter ready, this is going to be a long ride.

Quoting washingtonian115:
She's probably Karin's twin since Karin will have a chance next year.

That will be a joy to track, Karen jokes will arise.

Quoting allancalderini:
Nadine and Karen the sisters sounds good I will like to see Karen of next year.btw how long did 2007 Karen survive?you are all talking like she live for weeks.

The tropical cyclone itself was only alive for about 4 days, but the remnants lasted much longer and even helped to form a TD. Some people say that Karen is lurking out there, we found out it is true.

Some of the vorticity from Karen's remnants may have been responsible for the development of the short-lived Tropical Depression Fifteen on October 11.[16]
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
465. MAweatherboy1
4:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Nadine has definitely been a fun storm to track... I hope it stays out there for a while.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7295
464. allancalderini
4:11 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
She's probably Karin's twin since Karin will have a chance next year.
Nadine and Karen the sisters sounds good I will like to see Karen of next year.btw how long did 2007 Karen survive?you are all talking like she live for weeks.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3704
463. washingtonian115
4:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yup, Nadine will be circulating the seas forever, or is Nadine another form of Karen?
She's probably Karin's twin since Karin will have a chance next year.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
462. HurricaneDean07
3:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yup, Nadine will be circulating the seas forever, or is Nadine another form of Karen?

Everyone hide in* your bomb shelters! Karen's remnants finally resurfaced, and they're back to stay FOREVER.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
461. wxchaser97
3:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Karin 2....

Yup, Nadine will be circulating the seas forever, or is Nadine another form of Karen?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
460. Thing342
3:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Okay, here's my last guess of the day:
Nadine will reach 100 advisories!!!
:) Wishcasting lol


100 - 44 = 56, 56/4 = 14. Nadine will have to last for another two weeks for that to happen.

Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
459. BahaHurican
3:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
She's BAAACK....



LOL
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20694
458. washingtonian115
3:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

I don't think Nadine wants to go away, she is here to stay forever.
Karin 2....
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
457. Bobbyweather
3:40 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Okay, here's my last guess of the day:
Nadine will reach 100 advisories!!!
:) Wishcasting lol
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2649
456. unknowncomic
3:37 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting stormchaser19:


Seems like 2012 Hurricane season will give us a last shoot of storms


And NADINE supposed to be hurricane again incredible
October could be interesting.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1722
454. stormchaser19
3:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting unknowncomic:


Seems like 2012 Hurricane season will give us a last shoot of storms


And NADINE supposed to be hurricane again incredible
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2130
453. wxchaser97
3:31 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Go awaaaaaaaay Nadine!!!.

I don't think Nadine wants to go away, she is here to stay forever.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
452. Doppler22
3:31 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Nadine just wants to be around forever..... at this rate we will be eating our Thanksgiving Diners and then checking on Nadine
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 3263
451. aislinnpaps
3:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Why is it the beautiful Fall-like days only happen during the week when I'm teaching?
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112
450. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
XX/XX/XX
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
449. washingtonian115
3:28 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Go awaaaaaaaay Nadine!!!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
447. unknowncomic
3:25 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Article on long lived storms.

Link

Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1722
446. Tropicsweatherpr
3:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
The obvious:
Jelawat is Sanba II
Nadine will have highest ACE


For sure Nadine will be #1 in ACE units as it is going to surpass Michael according to the NHC forecast.

Michael

16.4975

Nadine

12.5400
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13290
445. allancalderini
3:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Nadine may become the 1 in Ace production if she stay alive as they are saying.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3704
443. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
442. HurricaneDean07
3:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Hey, this isn't math class. She will probably live for more than five days.

My guess is that she will live for about 6 and a half more days, meaning that the 71st advisory will be the final one ;)
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
441. Ameister12
3:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Jelawat is now predicted to become a category 5 super typhoon.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4498
440. unknowncomic
3:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1722
439. Tropicsweatherpr
3:14 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
As a remainder, Nadine is now a tropical cyclone again (duh), which means that its Accumulated Cyclone Energy units will resume accumulating.


Lol Gro, yes.


Nadine will raise more the ACE numbers for her (12.2900) and the North Atlantic. (85.7475)
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13290
438. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:12 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


nice area of pre-disturb weather
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
437. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:11 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
As a remainder, Nadine is now a tropical cyclone again (duh), which means that its Accumulated Cyclone Energy units will resume accumulating.

Quoting Grothar:


Hey, TA. If Nadine lasts into next year's season, will she still retain the name Nadine?

Lol Gro, yes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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