Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on September 20, 2012

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The extraordinary decline in Arctic sea ice during 2012 is finally over. Sea ice extent bottomed out on September 16, announced scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) on Wednesday. The sea ice extent fell to 3.41 million square kilometers, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that this year's weather was cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during this year's minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the Contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean."


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice reached its minimum on September 16, 2012, and was at its lowest extent since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

When was the last time the Arctic was this ice-free?
We can be confident that the Arctic did not see the kind of melting observed in 2012 going back over a century, as we have detailed ice edge records from ships (Walsh and Chapman, 2001). It is very unlikely the Northwest Passage was open between 1497 and 1900, since this spanned a cold period in the northern latitudes known as "The Little Ice Age". Ships periodically attempted the Passage and were foiled during this period. Research by Kinnard et al. (2011) shows that the Arctic ice melt in the past few decades is unprecedented for at least the past 1,450 years. We may have to go back to at least 4,000 B.C. to find the last time so little summer ice was present in the Arctic. Funder and Kjaer (2007) found extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coast, which suggested the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in the summer for over 1,000 years between 6,000 - 8,500 years ago, when Earth's orbital variations brought more sunlight to the Arctic in summer than at present. Prior to that, the next likely time was during the last inter-glacial period, 120,000 years ago. Arctic temperatures then were 2 - 3°C higher than present-day temperatures, and sea levels were 4 - 6 meters higher.


Figure 2. Year-averaged and 3-month averaged Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent from Chapman and Walsh (2001), as updated by the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. I've updated their graph to include 2011 plus the first 9 months of 2012.


Figure 3. Late summer Arctic sea ice extent over the past 1,450 years reconstructed from proxy data by Kinnard et al.'s 2011 paper, Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years. The solid pink line is a smoothed 40-year average, and the light pink areas shows a 95% confidence interval.  Note that the modern observational data in this figure extend through 2008, though the extent is not as low as the current annual data due to the 40-year smoothing. More commentary on this graph is available at skepticalscience.com.

When will the Arctic be ice-free in summer?
So, when will Santa's Workshop need to be retrofitted with pontoons to avoid sinking to the bottom of the Arctic Ocean in summer? It's hard to say, since there is a large amount of natural variability in Arctic weather patterns. Day et al. (2012) found that 5 to 31% of the changes in Arctic sea ice could be due to natural causes. However, the sea ice at the summer minimum has been declining at a rate of 12% per decade, far in excess of the worst-case scenario predicted in the 2007 IPCC report. Forecasts of an ice-free Arctic range from 20 - 30 years from now to much sooner. Just this week, Dr. Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University predicted that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within four years. A study by Stroeve et al. (2012), using the updated models being run for the 2014 IPCC report, found that "a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the next few decades is a distinct possibility." Of the 21 models considered, 2022 was the earliest date that complete Arctic sea ice occurred in September.


Video 1. A powerful storm wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover in August 2012. This visualization shows the strength and direction of the winds and their impact on the ice: the red vectors represent the fastest winds, while blue vectors stand for slower winds. According to NSIDC, the storm sped up the loss of the thin ice that appears to have been already on the verge of melting completely.Video credit: NASA.

But Antarctic sea ice is growing!
It's a sure thing that when Arctic sea ice hits new record lows, global warming contrarians will attempt to draw attention away from the Arctic by talking about sea ice around Antarctica. A case in point is an article that appeared in Forbes on Wednesday by James Taylor. Mr. Taylor wrote, "Antarctic sea ice set another record this past week, with the most amount of ice ever recorded on day 256 of the calendar year (September 12 of this leap year)...Amusingly, page after page of Google News results for Antarctic sea ice record show links to news articles breathlessly spreading fear and warning of calamity because Arctic sea ice recently set a 33-year low. Sea ice around one pole is shrinking while sea ice around another pole is growing. This sure sounds like a global warming crisis to me."

This analysis is highly misleading, as it ignores the fact that Antarctica has actually been warming in recent years. In fact, the oceans surrounding Antarctica have warmed faster than the global trend, and there has been accelerated melting of ocean-terminating Antarctic glaciers in recent years as a result of warmer waters eating away the glaciers. There is great concern among scientists about the stability of two glaciers in West Antarctica (the Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers) due the increase in ocean temperatures. These glaciers may suffer rapid retreats that will contribute significantly to global sea level rise.

Despite the warming going on in Antarctica, there has been a modest long-term increase in Antarctic sea ice in recent decades. So, how can more sea ice form on warmer ocean waters? As explained in an excellent article at skepticalscience.com, the reasons are complex. One reason is that the Southern Ocean consists of a layer of cold water near the surface and a layer of warmer water below. Water from the warmer layer rises up to the surface, melting sea ice. However, as air temperatures warm, the amount of rain and snowfall also increases. This freshens the surface waters, leading to a surface layer less dense than the saltier, warmer water below. The layers become more stratified and mix less. Less heat is transported upwards from the deeper, warmer layer. Hence less sea ice is melted (Zhang 2007). As the planet continues to warm, climate models predict that the growth in Antarctic sea ice will reverse, as the waters become too warm to support so much sea ice.


Figure 4. Surface air temperature over the ice-covered areas of the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica (top), and sea ice extent, observed by satellite (bottom). Image credit: (Zhang 2007).

Commentary: Earth's attic is on fire
To me, seeing the record Arctic sea ice loss of 2012 is like discovering a growing fire burning in Earth's attic. It is an emergency that requires immediate urgent attention. If you remove an area of sea ice 43% the size of the Contiguous U.S. from the ocean, it is guaranteed to have a significant impact on weather and climate. The extra heat and moisture added to the atmosphere as a result of all that open water over the pole may already be altering jet stream patterns in fall and winter, bringing an increase in extreme weather events. This year's record sea ice loss also contributed to an unprecedented melting event in Greenland. Continued sea ice loss will further increase melting from Greenland, contributing to sea level rise and storm surge damages. Global warming doubters tell us to pay attention to Earth's basement--the Antarctic--pointing out (incorrectly) that there is no fire burning there. But shouldn't we be paying attention to the steadily growing fire in our attic? The house all of humanity lives on is on fire. The fire is certain to spread, since we've ignored it for too long. It is capable of becoming a raging fire that will burn down our house, crippling civilization, unless we take swift and urgent action to combat it.

References
Funder, S. and K.H. Kjaer, 2007, "A sea-ice free Arctic Ocean?", Geophys. Res. Abstr. 9 (2007), p. 07815.

Kinnard et al., 2011, "Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years".

Walsh, J.E and W.L.Chapman, 2001, "Twentieth-century sea ice variations from observational data", Annals of Glaciology, 33, Number 1, January 2001, pp. 444-448.

Related info
Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low. September 6, 2012 blog post
Wunderground's Sea Ice page

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

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1259. j2008
Quoting KoritheMan:
Some cutesty little advisories from the NHC:


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 78
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 09 2002

OH...OH...OH...OH...STAYIN ALIVE...STAYIN ALIVE. WITH NO TIME TO
SPARE...KYLE GENERATED SOME DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WITH ENOUGH BANDING TO GENERATE A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF
T1.5 FROM TAFB. THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST INCREASE IN ACTIVITY WITH
SOME OF THE OTHER BANDS AS WELL...SO KYLE HAS BOUGHT ITSELF ANOTHER
SIX HOURS OF LIFE...AND PROBABLY MORE. WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LAST
FLURRY OF ACTIVITY...OR THE START OF A REGENERATION IN RESPONSE TO
AN INCREASE IN SSTS...IS NOT YET CLEAR. THE SHEAR...WHICH IS STILL
EVIDENT OVER THE SYSTEM...SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO...AT WHICH TIME THE CIRCULATION WILL BE UNDERNEATH AN
ANTICYCLONE...A CONFIGURATION FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN KYLE...HOWEVER...AND THE CYCLONE
IS STILL EMBEDDED IN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT. I SUSPECT THAT THE
THERMODYNAMICS ARE STILL TOO HOSTILE TO SUPPORT VERY MUCH
CONVECTION...AND SO I HAVE NOT CHANGED THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS THINKING COULD CHANGE IF KYLE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ITS ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.

KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BERMUDA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/8...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. THE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT...AND MOST OF IT KEEPS KYLE OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA COASTLINE.
BASED ON THE TRENDS IN INITIAL MOTION AND THE SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS NOW OFFSHORE UNTIL 72 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THIS TRACK IS STILL TO THE LEFT OF NEARLY ALL THE MAJOR
GUIDANCE MODELS.

KYLE IS NOW TIED FOR THE 7TH LONGEST-LASTING ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WITH THE NEXT ADVISORY IT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NUMBER 6 SPOT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 28.3N 76.3W 25 KTS
12HR VT 10/1200Z 28.3N 77.7W 25 KTS
24HR VT 11/0000Z 28.6N 79.5W 25 KTS
36HR VT 11/1200Z 29.4N 80.9W 25 KTS
48HR VT 12/0000Z 31.0N 81.0W 25 KTS
72HR VT 13/0000Z 34.0N 79.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND


NNNN



ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 89
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2002

KYLE IS RAPIDLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. THE CONVECTION IS TAKING THE
SHAPE OF A FRONTAL BAND AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. THE CYCLONE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 20 KNOTS AND A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE EAST IS EXPECTED. KYLE SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW IN
A DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON KYLE...AND I HOPE
THERE WILL BE NO MORE SURPRISES.


ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 37.3N 73.1W 40 KTS
12HR VT 13/0000Z 39.0N 70.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 13/1200Z 40.0N 65.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 14/0000Z 40.0N 60.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

Ha, 89 that must have been fun. I guess even they had to joke around or they would go crazy... I love that the NHC just throws in references like earlyer this season with Kirk.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

I come here for weather, or some climate talk, and want to talk about those stuff. That's why I'm here, to add my input and learn from others.


I come here to find information on weather, and I enjoy it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

The line might or might not dissipate. Either way you should get rain as showers/thunderstorms are possible behind the front too.


And maybe some sleet!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Slamguitar:


I hope it doesn't disintegrate like the last few lines that came my way. I want to hear some thunder!

The line might or might not dissipate. Either way you should get rain as showers/thunderstorms are possible behind the front too.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting KoritheMan:

Not gonna let me off easy, are ya? :/

But no, it's not the actual blogging that bothers me; it's the continuous forecasting of the same storm system. The only reason I'm so diligent with it is because I require forecast verification for my TCRs. That's also why I assign percentages to disturbances.

Hey, you aren't the only getting tired of Nadine and you write good blogs Kori.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting j2008:
My goodness, I couldnt imagine that... If I was tracking back then I would have gone crazy
Some cutesty little advisories from the NHC:


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 78
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 09 2002

OH...OH...OH...OH...STAYIN ALIVE...STAYIN ALIVE. WITH NO TIME TO
SPARE...KYLE GENERATED SOME DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WITH ENOUGH BANDING TO GENERATE A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF
T1.5 FROM TAFB. THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST INCREASE IN ACTIVITY WITH
SOME OF THE OTHER BANDS AS WELL...SO KYLE HAS BOUGHT ITSELF ANOTHER
SIX HOURS OF LIFE...AND PROBABLY MORE. WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LAST
FLURRY OF ACTIVITY...OR THE START OF A REGENERATION IN RESPONSE TO
AN INCREASE IN SSTS...IS NOT YET CLEAR. THE SHEAR...WHICH IS STILL
EVIDENT OVER THE SYSTEM...SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO...AT WHICH TIME THE CIRCULATION WILL BE UNDERNEATH AN
ANTICYCLONE...A CONFIGURATION FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN KYLE...HOWEVER...AND THE CYCLONE
IS STILL EMBEDDED IN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT. I SUSPECT THAT THE
THERMODYNAMICS ARE STILL TOO HOSTILE TO SUPPORT VERY MUCH
CONVECTION...AND SO I HAVE NOT CHANGED THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS THINKING COULD CHANGE IF KYLE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ITS ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.

KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BERMUDA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/8...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. THE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT...AND MOST OF IT KEEPS KYLE OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA COASTLINE.
BASED ON THE TRENDS IN INITIAL MOTION AND THE SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS NOW OFFSHORE UNTIL 72 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THIS TRACK IS STILL TO THE LEFT OF NEARLY ALL THE MAJOR
GUIDANCE MODELS.

KYLE IS NOW TIED FOR THE 7TH LONGEST-LASTING ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WITH THE NEXT ADVISORY IT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NUMBER 6 SPOT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 28.3N 76.3W 25 KTS
12HR VT 10/1200Z 28.3N 77.7W 25 KTS
24HR VT 11/0000Z 28.6N 79.5W 25 KTS
36HR VT 11/1200Z 29.4N 80.9W 25 KTS
48HR VT 12/0000Z 31.0N 81.0W 25 KTS
72HR VT 13/0000Z 34.0N 79.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND


NNNN



ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 89
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2002

KYLE IS RAPIDLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. THE CONVECTION IS TAKING THE
SHAPE OF A FRONTAL BAND AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. THE CYCLONE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 20 KNOTS AND A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE EAST IS EXPECTED. KYLE SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW IN
A DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON KYLE...AND I HOPE
THERE WILL BE NO MORE SURPRISES.


ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 37.3N 73.1W 40 KTS
12HR VT 13/0000Z 39.0N 70.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 13/1200Z 40.0N 65.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 14/0000Z 40.0N 60.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19890
Quoting wxchaser97:

I got a good soaking and even a thunderstorm a few hours ago, I see that line popping up.


I hope it doesn't disintegrate like the last few lines that came my way. I want to hear some thunder!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting j2008:
Same here, I have learned alot about things from the people here on this site. My goodness, I couldnt imagine that... If I was tracking back then I would have gone crazy

Everyone has helped me understand more about the weather.

I would get sooo tired of tracking the same storm for so long.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927

Quoting wxchaser97:

If you forget about Nadine then its fine by me. You still are expected to write blogs even if you do that kori:)
Not gonna let me off easy, are ya? :/

But no, it's not the actual blogging that bothers me; it's the continuous forecasting of the same storm system. The only reason I'm so diligent with it is because I require forecast verification for my TCRs. That's also why I assign percentages to disturbances.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19890
Quoting Slamguitar:
Real rain headed my way?


I got a good soaking and even a thunderstorm a few hours ago, I see that line popping up.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
1249. j2008
Quoting wxchaser97:

I come here for weather, or some climate talk, and want to talk about those stuff. That's why I'm here, to add my input and learn from others.
Same here, I have learned alot about things from the people here on this site.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hard to believe that 2002's Kyle was roughly double that amount. Dear god...
My goodness, I couldnt imagine that... If I was tracking back then I would have gone crazy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Maybe I should just drink myself into a drunken stupor...

If you forget about Nadine then its fine by me. You still are expected to write blogs even if you do that kori:)
Just think if Nadine was around for a month or more.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Real rain headed my way?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1246. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (T1217)
12:00 PM JST September 22 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Jelawat (990 hPa) located at 11.7N 129.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 12.3N 129.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 13.7N 128.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
69 HRS: 15.3N 127.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44715
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Figure 12 - Arctic sea ice has receded dramatically faster than the mean of IPCC models projected, reaching levels not expected until 2065. Positive feedback loops such as those that have accelerated sea ice loss might accelerate the loss of permafrost and the release of additional CO2 and methane from the Arctic.

I bring up this case of climate change happening far faster than we expected here, at the end of this article, to convey a key point. The future is uncertain. Changes in climate can at times move far more slowly than we expect. They can also move far more rapidly. The most important thing for us to understand is that we don't know, for certain, what changes will come. We only know the range of possibilities. And at one end of that range, things may not be so terrible. At the other end of the range we have deep reason for concern.

"Hope for the best," goes the English proverb, "but prepare for the worst."


http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/20 12/09/21/arctic-sea-ice-what-why-and-what-next/



The reason their prediction was wrong is because they committed a mathematical fallacy.

the projected the future decrease of area based solely on the past decrease of area, but in reality volume is what actually "melts".

In the past few decades, when thickness was much higher, area had very little decline. Now that thickness is so low, area will decline at a rate almost directly proportional to volume.

A one sentence summary of this mathematical fallacy is "The IPCC did not "squeeze" volume and area to zero at the same time, and consequently produced an absurdly slow result for the decrease of Artic Sea Ice Area."


Excluding fractals and certain other infinitesmal dimensions, Volume and area are required to be zero at the same time, which is a concept called the "Squeeze theorem" in Calculus, where you can prove one limit by finding another limit that provably must have the same value.

In this case we know volume and area must be zero at the same time, so the predictions of future area should have actually been made based on past and present VOLUME.

As I said earlier in the blog, area is simply a configuration or distribution of that volume, but volume is actually what "melts," what the Heat of Fusion is applied to, not area.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1244. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Storm "LAWIN" has slowed down as it changes its course in a north northwest direction

At 10:00 AM PhSt, Tropical Storm Lawin (Jelawat) [987 hPa] located at 11.7°N, 129.4°E or 390 km east of Borongan, Eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2
---------------

Visayas Region
===============
1. Eastern Samar


Signal Warning #1
------------------

Luzon Region
=============
1. Sorsogon

Visayas Region
==============
1. Northern Samar
2. Western Samar
3. Leyte

Additional Information
=====================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical storm.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao due to big waves generated by Tropical Storm "Lawin".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44715
Quoting j2008:
Yea 43 NHC updates, I'm sure they are pretty tierd too. They must be dreading the fact that she might regenerate....


Hard to believe that 2002's Kyle was roughly double that amount. Dear god...
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19890
Quoting KoritheMan:
I tend to ignore people who ignore science. i.e., JFV and his "It's going to south Florida!" mentality with no evidence to back it up beyond wishful thinking. SykKid is another one, what with his constant downplaying everything that looks legitimately healthy. Getting that way with the anti-GW crowd, too.

We're on a website dedicated to a branch of science, people. I expect you to utilize scientific reasoning and nothing else. Sorry if that's asking too much. Actually I'm not.

I come here for weather, or some climate talk, and want to talk about those stuff. That's why I'm here, to add my input and learn from others.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting wxchaser97:

Nadine could transition back to a tropical storm, we may not be totally done just yet:)

..NADINE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...REGENERATION POSSIBLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


Maybe I should just drink myself into a drunken stupor...
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19890
1240. j2008
Quoting KoritheMan:


Thankfully. I was tired of forecasting her. :P
Yea 43 NHC updates, I'm sure they are pretty tierd too. They must be dreading the fact that she might regenerate....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Thankfully. I was tired of forecasting her. :P

Nadine could transition back to a tropical storm, we may not be totally done just yet:)

..NADINE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...REGENERATION POSSIBLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting j2008:
I guess I'm a little late but I see that Nadine has finally bitten the dust.


Thankfully. I was tired of forecasting her. :P
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19890
I tend to ignore people who ignore science. i.e., JFV and his "It's going to south Florida!" mentality with no evidence to back it up beyond wishful thinking. SykKid is another one, what with his constant downplaying everything that looks legitimately healthy. Getting that way with the anti-GW crowd, too.

We're on a website dedicated to a branch of science, people. I expect you to utilize scientific reasoning and nothing else. Sorry if that's asking too much. Actually I'm not.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19890
Quoting KoritheMan:
I have almost 200. I don't have a lot of patience for people.

Around 40, I have patience but when someone crosses the line then goodbye.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
1235. j2008
Quoting KoritheMan:

I have almost 200. I don't have a lot of patience for idiots.
Woowhee, thats a lot. I try my best to give all the bloggers a clean slate but sometimes some of them get a little too much to handle... I guess I'm a little late but I see that Nadine has finally bitten the dust.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
I have almost 200. I don't have a lot of patience for people.


I've doubled my list since this current blog was posted.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Now that Dolan is gone, we can have some peace. Here is my hurricane rating scale for those who didn't see.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting j2008:
I finally got tierd of his duck posts so he just found the coveted number 6 on my iggy list, so much for coming to check in on the tropics. Later everyone, hopefully we can get Gro back soon.
I have almost 200. I don't have a lot of patience for people.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19890

Quoting CosmicEvents:
Gro would never use the words contained in any language,
So... he doesn't talk then? At all?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19890
1230. j2008
Quoting KoritheMan:
Okay, now you're just being disruptive, Dolan. Your frustration is understandable, but please, don't harass or disrupt this blog. We do not want that, and neither would Grothar.
I finally got tierd of his duck posts so he just found the coveted number 6 on my iggy list, so much for coming to check in on the tropics. Later everyone, hopefully we can get Gro back soon.
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Heh Dolanduck got bannd
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I believe that member Grothar posted a link to a youtube video of the meteor that contained shall we say not for family language in the colorful commentary. I'm not sure who did the audio on the video but it definitely wasn't Edward R. Murrow. In any case Grothar is a gentleman of the highest regard and I'd think it was an inadvertant mistake of his to post the link without viewing, but let it be a lesson to all of us that no one is immune from a ban if we do something wrong. You have to be extraa careful when posting links and vids and images. Gro would never use the words contained in any language, but the link did.
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For all those people claiming Antarctica was having a cold anomaly:

Not only were you wrong, but the continental warm anomaly is growing again.

With the cold front having moved through the U.S., the temperatures in North America are rebounding as well.



Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Gro should be back soon. Admin should know that this was an honest mistake on his part.
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Okay, now you're just being disruptive, Dolan. Your frustration is understandable, but please, don't harass or disrupt this blog. We do not want that, and neither would Grothar.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19890

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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