Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on September 20, 2012

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The extraordinary decline in Arctic sea ice during 2012 is finally over. Sea ice extent bottomed out on September 16, announced scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) on Wednesday. The sea ice extent fell to 3.41 million square kilometers, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that this year's weather was cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during this year's minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the Contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean."


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice reached its minimum on September 16, 2012, and was at its lowest extent since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

When was the last time the Arctic was this ice-free?
We can be confident that the Arctic did not see the kind of melting observed in 2012 going back over a century, as we have detailed ice edge records from ships (Walsh and Chapman, 2001). It is very unlikely the Northwest Passage was open between 1497 and 1900, since this spanned a cold period in the northern latitudes known as "The Little Ice Age". Ships periodically attempted the Passage and were foiled during this period. Research by Kinnard et al. (2011) shows that the Arctic ice melt in the past few decades is unprecedented for at least the past 1,450 years. We may have to go back to at least 4,000 B.C. to find the last time so little summer ice was present in the Arctic. Funder and Kjaer (2007) found extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coast, which suggested the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in the summer for over 1,000 years between 6,000 - 8,500 years ago, when Earth's orbital variations brought more sunlight to the Arctic in summer than at present. Prior to that, the next likely time was during the last inter-glacial period, 120,000 years ago. Arctic temperatures then were 2 - 3°C higher than present-day temperatures, and sea levels were 4 - 6 meters higher.


Figure 2. Year-averaged and 3-month averaged Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent from Chapman and Walsh (2001), as updated by the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. I've updated their graph to include 2011 plus the first 9 months of 2012.


Figure 3. Late summer Arctic sea ice extent over the past 1,450 years reconstructed from proxy data by Kinnard et al.'s 2011 paper, Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years. The solid pink line is a smoothed 40-year average, and the light pink areas shows a 95% confidence interval.  Note that the modern observational data in this figure extend through 2008, though the extent is not as low as the current annual data due to the 40-year smoothing. More commentary on this graph is available at skepticalscience.com.

When will the Arctic be ice-free in summer?
So, when will Santa's Workshop need to be retrofitted with pontoons to avoid sinking to the bottom of the Arctic Ocean in summer? It's hard to say, since there is a large amount of natural variability in Arctic weather patterns. Day et al. (2012) found that 5 to 31% of the changes in Arctic sea ice could be due to natural causes. However, the sea ice at the summer minimum has been declining at a rate of 12% per decade, far in excess of the worst-case scenario predicted in the 2007 IPCC report. Forecasts of an ice-free Arctic range from 20 - 30 years from now to much sooner. Just this week, Dr. Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University predicted that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within four years. A study by Stroeve et al. (2012), using the updated models being run for the 2014 IPCC report, found that "a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the next few decades is a distinct possibility." Of the 21 models considered, 2022 was the earliest date that complete Arctic sea ice occurred in September.


Video 1. A powerful storm wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover in August 2012. This visualization shows the strength and direction of the winds and their impact on the ice: the red vectors represent the fastest winds, while blue vectors stand for slower winds. According to NSIDC, the storm sped up the loss of the thin ice that appears to have been already on the verge of melting completely.Video credit: NASA.

But Antarctic sea ice is growing!
It's a sure thing that when Arctic sea ice hits new record lows, global warming contrarians will attempt to draw attention away from the Arctic by talking about sea ice around Antarctica. A case in point is an article that appeared in Forbes on Wednesday by James Taylor. Mr. Taylor wrote, "Antarctic sea ice set another record this past week, with the most amount of ice ever recorded on day 256 of the calendar year (September 12 of this leap year)...Amusingly, page after page of Google News results for Antarctic sea ice record show links to news articles breathlessly spreading fear and warning of calamity because Arctic sea ice recently set a 33-year low. Sea ice around one pole is shrinking while sea ice around another pole is growing. This sure sounds like a global warming crisis to me."

This analysis is highly misleading, as it ignores the fact that Antarctica has actually been warming in recent years. In fact, the oceans surrounding Antarctica have warmed faster than the global trend, and there has been accelerated melting of ocean-terminating Antarctic glaciers in recent years as a result of warmer waters eating away the glaciers. There is great concern among scientists about the stability of two glaciers in West Antarctica (the Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers) due the increase in ocean temperatures. These glaciers may suffer rapid retreats that will contribute significantly to global sea level rise.

Despite the warming going on in Antarctica, there has been a modest long-term increase in Antarctic sea ice in recent decades. So, how can more sea ice form on warmer ocean waters? As explained in an excellent article at skepticalscience.com, the reasons are complex. One reason is that the Southern Ocean consists of a layer of cold water near the surface and a layer of warmer water below. Water from the warmer layer rises up to the surface, melting sea ice. However, as air temperatures warm, the amount of rain and snowfall also increases. This freshens the surface waters, leading to a surface layer less dense than the saltier, warmer water below. The layers become more stratified and mix less. Less heat is transported upwards from the deeper, warmer layer. Hence less sea ice is melted (Zhang 2007). As the planet continues to warm, climate models predict that the growth in Antarctic sea ice will reverse, as the waters become too warm to support so much sea ice.


Figure 4. Surface air temperature over the ice-covered areas of the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica (top), and sea ice extent, observed by satellite (bottom). Image credit: (Zhang 2007).

Commentary: Earth's attic is on fire
To me, seeing the record Arctic sea ice loss of 2012 is like discovering a growing fire burning in Earth's attic. It is an emergency that requires immediate urgent attention. If you remove an area of sea ice 43% the size of the Contiguous U.S. from the ocean, it is guaranteed to have a significant impact on weather and climate. The extra heat and moisture added to the atmosphere as a result of all that open water over the pole may already be altering jet stream patterns in fall and winter, bringing an increase in extreme weather events. This year's record sea ice loss also contributed to an unprecedented melting event in Greenland. Continued sea ice loss will further increase melting from Greenland, contributing to sea level rise and storm surge damages. Global warming doubters tell us to pay attention to Earth's basement--the Antarctic--pointing out (incorrectly) that there is no fire burning there. But shouldn't we be paying attention to the steadily growing fire in our attic? The house all of humanity lives on is on fire. The fire is certain to spread, since we've ignored it for too long. It is capable of becoming a raging fire that will burn down our house, crippling civilization, unless we take swift and urgent action to combat it.

References
Funder, S. and K.H. Kjaer, 2007, "A sea-ice free Arctic Ocean?", Geophys. Res. Abstr. 9 (2007), p. 07815.

Kinnard et al., 2011, "Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years".

Walsh, J.E and W.L.Chapman, 2001, "Twentieth-century sea ice variations from observational data", Annals of Glaciology, 33, Number 1, January 2001, pp. 444-448.

Related info
Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low. September 6, 2012 blog post
Wunderground's Sea Ice page

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

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Having too much time on my hands, I took a look at the annual CO2 rate of increase from the Mauna Loa site (link below), and made my own decadal average annual rise from 1961 to 2010.

(ppm)

1961-70 0.90
1971-80 1.34
1981-90 1.55
1991-00 1.54
2001-10 2.04

Points of interest:

1) The large jump in the 70s.

2) The lack of increase in the 90s, compared with the 80s.

3) The large jump in the 2001-10 period.

The recent large jump might be a result of increased industrialization in Asia, particularly in China, and also to the natural 'sinks' reaching their limits.




Link
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Quoting trumpman84:
People don't doubt climate science because of lack of evidence. They doubt it because of the irresposible way it is presented by people like Dr. Masters and other alarmists. I believe people and society in general are very skeptical of 'the sky is falling so give me your money' views.
No, that's not why anyone doubts it. They doubt it because they're the unwitting victims of a decades-long scheme by Big Energy to make sure that they doubt it. Or they doubt it because to admit it's happening and that something drastic needs to be done to prevent a certain catastrophe would run counter to their ideological preconceptions (as belied in statements such as "the sky is falling so give me your money"). Or they doubt it because they fear it, and willful ignorance is just plain more pleasant at times. Or they doubt it because they've fallen prey to confirmation bias by reading only those items that--and listening to only those people who--support what they already believe.

And so on.
The truth is incontrovertible. Panic may resent it, ignorance may deride it, malice may distort it, but there it is.

-Winston Churchill, 1916.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13797
1305. WxLogic
Good Morning
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Kind of a weird scenario on the 6z GFS- You'll have to look at the whole run from 240 hours or so to see what I mean. But here's the end result:



I would not take that seriously for two reasons, long range and is the 06z run.But is the area that is favored in October and we have to see if the main models (GFS/ECMWF) agree on development on less timeframe.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14890
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Kind of a weird scenario on the 6z GFS- You'll have to look at the whole run from 240 hours or so to see what I mean. But here's the end result:



Look, there's Grothars blob watch blob trying to sneak north. 240 hrs out, I wonder if it unblobes then reblobes before it makes the move.
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.
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Good morning. Kind of a weird scenario on the 6z GFS- You'll have to look at the whole run from 240 hours or so to see what I mean. But here's the end result:

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Morning gang. Hit the wrong button for post;

1281. trumpman84 1:43 AM EDT on September 22, 2012

Accidentally hit plus...meant to hit the minus. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, and I will plus some of those I don't agree with, however I didn't like the Doc being called irresponsible and an alarmist on his own blog.

Officially joined this community six years today and have enjoyed every bit of it. Some truly fine folks hang out here, and I never cease to learn from you. Thanks for having me along for the ride.

Groggy and feeling awful today, I had hoped I might feel better with a good nights rest... not to be [pouts some]
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Crikey...will have to post no videos ever as I always have my sound off! Plus, having lived in the Uk for over a decade, I'm a bit desensitized to cursing or what American viewers would find offensive LOL Much more liberal here to what is deemed acceptable! My last friend who visited was duly shocked!

But really, Gro wouldn't have had any dodgy intentions. Hard to believe they didn't see it as an honest mistake. Kind of annoying reaally :/



Not sure 'Crikey' is allowed.
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ex 92 leftover cold front in boc monday or tues could develop seems to be coming together good day
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Quoting angelafritz:


Because the physics in the Arctic are not the same as the physics in the Antarctic. One is made of ocean, the other is made of land.


Also, you're comparing Arctic Ocean ice melt in summer to Antarctic sea ice cover increase in winter. Two different things.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I believe that member Grothar posted a link to a youtube video of the meteor that contained shall we say not for family language in the colorful commentary. I'm not sure who did the audio on the video but it definitely wasn't Edward R. Murrow. In any case Grothar is a gentleman of the highest regard and I'd think it was an inadvertant mistake of his to post the link without viewing, but let it be a lesson to all of us that no one is immune from a ban if we do something wrong. You have to be extraa careful when posting links and vids and images. Gro would never use the words contained in any language, but the link did.


Crikey...will have to post no videos ever as I always have my sound off! Plus, having lived in the Uk for over a decade, I'm a bit desensitized to cursing or what American viewers would find offensive LOL Much more liberal here to what is deemed acceptable! My last friend who visited was duly shocked!

But really, Gro wouldn't have had any dodgy intentions. Hard to believe they didn't see it as an honest mistake. Kind of annoying reaally :/
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1295. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Well, my rain didn't last long and there was no hint of thunder in the distance.

We'll see what happens later on...
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1293. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (T1217)
15:00 PM JST September 22 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Jelawat (990 hPa) located at 11.7N 129.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 12.4N 129.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 13.6N 129.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 15.2N 128.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
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1292. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
sunrise at the south pole first day of spring
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1291. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Facility:
Neumayer Station III
northeast City: Neumayer Station
Country: Antarctica
Coordinates: -70.650000 / -8.250000



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1290. angelafritz (Admin)
Quoting trumpman84:


This seems to really be grasping at straws here...skeptic or not. Even if this convoluted mess is true, why isn't the same thing happening in the arctic?


Because the physics in the Arctic are not the same as the physics in the Antarctic. One is made of ocean, the other is made of land.
'Bout time.

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I shouldn't of put off Calculus for so many years, lol. That's what I'm up to, and it'll be the same story when I wake up. Meh.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


You have to?

Well the blog is school-related(independent study) and CoCoRaHS is everyday at 7am.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting wxchaser97:

I am tired and I have to be up at 6/7am for my CoCoRaHS report and writing a blog.


You have to?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm not tired, nor do I plan on going to sleep anytime soon. I don't work until 4 PM.

I am tired and I have to be up at 6/7am for my CoCoRaHS report and writing a blog. I don't however have to go to work and I can sleep after my weather stuff. I am actually doing some AP Gov homework right now since I'm bored.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting wxchaser97:

Or for the really tired people who are still awake, good blog.


I'm not tired, nor do I plan on going to sleep anytime soon. I don't work until 4 PM.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Blog update for when the sleepyheads awake.

Or for the really tired people who are still awake, good blog.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Blog update for when the sleepyheads awake.
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Quoting Dr. Masters:
Despite the warming going on in Antarctica, there has been a modest long-term increase in Antarctic sea ice in recent decades. So, how can more sea ice form on warmer ocean waters? As explained in an excellent article at skepticalscience.com, the reasons are complex. One reason is that the Southern Ocean consists of a layer of cold water near the surface and a layer of warmer water below. Water from the warmer layer rises up to the surface, melting sea ice. However, as air temperatures warm, the amount of rain and snowfall also increases. This freshens the surface waters, leading to a surface layer less dense than the saltier, warmer water below. The layers become more stratified and mix less. Less heat is transported upwards from the deeper, warmer layer. Hence less sea ice is melted (Zhang 2007). As the planet continues to warm, climate models predict that the growth in Antarctic sea ice will reverse, as the waters become too warm to support so much sea ice.


This seems to really be grasping at straws here...skeptic or not. Even if this convoluted mess is true, why isn't the same thing happening in the arctic? How would you even test a hypothesis like this?

Also, the title of the article mentioning a "fire" in the arctic reeks of alarmism. People don't doubt climate science because of lack of evidence. They doubt it because of the irresposible way it is presented by people like Dr. Masters and other alarmists. I believe people and society in general are very skeptical of 'the sky is falling so give me your money' views.

If scientists got out of politics and advocacy and just got back to reporting facts, the general public would be a lot more trusting of them.

I mean, is a headline of "Arctic Sea Ice reaches a record low." not grabbing enough eye balls already?
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989. Xandra 10:29 PM GMT on September 21, 2012 +10
From Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal:

Mankind’s Greatest Invention. Do you know what it is??


This is a hint.

It’s the most imprtant thing that anyone should understand about science. It’s in nearly every science text book from grade school to high school (usually at the front but often skipped or downplayed). It made the computer you are reading this on possible and in fact it made all of modern technology possible!

No, it’s not science…It’s SCIENTIFIC METHOD.

Do you know what it is, what it means? Do you have a solid understanding of it? Most do not, but it is the single greatest invention made by man. It’s so important that the nation with the greatest number of people who DO undersand it, will always rise to be the leader of the world. ALWAYS.

If you have some vague recollection that I am talking about hypothesis testing, then you’re missing the boat here. It’s MUCH deeper than that, because when you understand scientific method, you will understand completely what Neil de Grasse Tyson is really saying.

SCIENTIFIC METHOD IS:

At it’s core, it’s a simple set of rules that allows us to separate myth and superstition from reality, and allows us to build knowledge on a foundation of tried and tested fact. In short, scientific knowledge is the sum total of what we can see and test in the universe around us.

Rule One. Any observation or experiment we make must be repeatable. Others must be able to make the same observation or experiment, and get the SAME results. Not just someone you choose, but anyone and everyone should get the same result or make the same observation.

Violate rule one and it is NOT science.


Really?

I could have sworn the majority of cosmology involves one-time events which can never be repeated or tested, including the BB theory and String theory.

Maybe rule 1 only applies if you want it to apply...


Rule Two. Theories must make verifiable predictions. Any idea on how things work, or what is (or is not) true must be testable and falsifiable. You must be able to do an experiment that COULD possibly prove the idea wrong.

If you cannot do an experiment that could test the idea, and possibly prove it WRONG, then it is NOT Science.


You just discarded the BB, string theory, and the "many worlds" interpretation of QM, as there is no way to test these things, and most certainly no repeatable way to test them.

Congratuations.


Rule Three.

If an experiment shows a theory is wrong, then it’s wrong. As Richard Feynman said (I paraphrase) "It does not matter how smart your are or how famous you are, if your theory does not fit with experiment, then it’s wrong!" (..and therefore it is NOT science).


False positives and false negatives happen all the time, individual experiments could give incorrect results for any number of reasons.

If everyone took that overly simplistic view of things many inventions that exist would not exist at all.


Also, no scientific model is actually 100% correct anyway. At best they are close approximations.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
94L down to 10%, it is done.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

Good night everyone, see you later in the morning with 1-2 blogs.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Lets try again, my updated hurricane scale.

Click to enlarge
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
1277. beell
Grothar has been un banned.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I'll have to post some of my Tracking maps sometime, I have archived all my Tracking maps created for this year.
I made one for.
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Isaac
Joyce

I've been inconsistent with it lately, but that's what my powerpoints with 60 slides are for I guess :)
EDIT: I take notes and keep all my Tropics info. organized on these powerpoints.

I'm going to have to do that for my independent study. I'm hoping to have an important meteorologist at my final presentation.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting wxchaser97:

Goodnight HD07, that sounds really cool what you did. I, too, can draw maps really well and I wish I could have that happen.

I'll have to post some of my Tracking maps sometime, I have archived all my Tracking maps created for this year.
I made one for.
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Isaac
Joyce

I've been inconsistent with it lately, but that's what my powerpoints with 60 slides are for I guess :)
EDIT: I take notes and keep all my Tropics info. organized on these powerpoints.
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Wow. Spent the last hour catching up on the blog. Huge chunks of it are gone, including Grothar!

I'm guessing I should be glad I missed most of it. And yeah, it's obvious to all of us who have been reading his comments for years that he would never have posted that video had he heard it first.

Hope you reappear soonly Gro. We miss you. :)
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

On that note. I need some sleep!

Click my username for my blog I quickly wrote upon creating this comment.
Good Night Everyone!

Goodnight HD07, that sounds really cool what you did. I, too, can draw maps really well and I wish I could have that happen.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
I updated the graphics on my scale and added a few things/changed somethings. The general idea remains the same though.

EDIT: The blog ate my image for a midnight snack.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Guys! Guess what?

I drew some maps of the globe, and terrain as well as plate tectonics and climate regions by memory(IN say about 7 minutes), and showed it to my georgraphy teacher(because after tests and classwork he tells us to get out a sheet of paper and draw the world, which is easy to me :) ), He flipped out and showed it to some of his friends, and I just got recognition and a possible internship with NASA for next summer, and not-to-mention the fact that if I can show off all these skills and deep root myself into my Tropics Tracking hobby, then I could get some connections to the NHC or NASA's Tropical satellite/meteorology division.

Good day for me.

On that note. I need some sleep!

Click my username for my blog I quickly wrote upon creating this comment.
Good Night Everyone!
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Quoting RTSplayer:



The reason their prediction was wrong is because they committed a mathematical fallacy.

the projected the future decrease of area based solely on the past decrease of area, but in reality volume is what actually "melts".

In the past few decades, when thickness was much higher, area had very little decline. Now that thickness is so low, area will decline at a rate almost directly proportional to volume.


You don't think they took a volumetric approach in their calculation? Show me their math, please.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Guys! Guess what?

I drew some maps of the globe, and terrain as well as plate tectonics and climate regions by memory(IN say about 7 minutes), and showed it to my georgraphy teacher(because after tests and classwork he tells us to get out a sheet of paper and draw the world, which is easy to me :) ), He flipped out and showed it to some of his friends, and I just got recognition and a possible internship with NASA for next summer, and not-to-mention the fact that if I can show off all these skills and deep root myself into my Tropics Tracking hobby, then I could get some connections to the NHC or NASA's Tropical satellite/meteorology division.

Good day for me.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Do they ban paid members?

Yes they do, everyone is treated equal on here in that respect.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting RTSplayer:


Do they ban paid members?


Paying money =/= immunity from the rules.

So yes. Which is a good thing a majority of the time.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Kyle would have been better had it been a major hurricane for much of that time. 89 advisories on a 111 mph storm? Can you imagine what that would have done for our ACE that year?

Kyle: 203 ACE ;)

lol
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1265. j2008
Quoting KoritheMan:
Kyle would have been better had it been a major hurricane for much of that time. 89 advisories on a 111+ mph storm? Can you imagine what that would have done for our ACE that year?
We would have had some sorta record for the ACE put out by one storm..
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Lucky you, it should just be a cold rain for me with maybe some small hail.


So do I, I like it here.

Gro is unbanned, his blog is back up.


Do they ban paid members?
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Kyle would have been better had it been a major hurricane for much of that time. 89 advisories on a 111+ mph storm? Can you imagine what that would have done for our ACE that year?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Freezing level at 6,000ft right over me now.

That's only going to creep further south as we head into the day tomorrow.
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Quoting j2008:
Ha, 89 that must have been fun. I guess even they had to joke around or they would go crazy... I love that the NHC just throws in references like earlyer this season with Kirk.

Kirk will not live long and prosper, I like the NHC.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting Slamguitar:


And maybe some sleet!

Lucky you, it should just be a cold rain for me with maybe some small hail.

Quoting Civicane49:


I come here to find information on weather, and I enjoy it.

So do I, I like it here.

Gro is unbanned, his blog is back up.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
1259. j2008
Quoting KoritheMan:
Some cutesty little advisories from the NHC:


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 78
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 09 2002

OH...OH...OH...OH...STAYIN ALIVE...STAYIN ALIVE. WITH NO TIME TO
SPARE...KYLE GENERATED SOME DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WITH ENOUGH BANDING TO GENERATE A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF
T1.5 FROM TAFB. THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST INCREASE IN ACTIVITY WITH
SOME OF THE OTHER BANDS AS WELL...SO KYLE HAS BOUGHT ITSELF ANOTHER
SIX HOURS OF LIFE...AND PROBABLY MORE. WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LAST
FLURRY OF ACTIVITY...OR THE START OF A REGENERATION IN RESPONSE TO
AN INCREASE IN SSTS...IS NOT YET CLEAR. THE SHEAR...WHICH IS STILL
EVIDENT OVER THE SYSTEM...SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO...AT WHICH TIME THE CIRCULATION WILL BE UNDERNEATH AN
ANTICYCLONE...A CONFIGURATION FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN KYLE...HOWEVER...AND THE CYCLONE
IS STILL EMBEDDED IN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT. I SUSPECT THAT THE
THERMODYNAMICS ARE STILL TOO HOSTILE TO SUPPORT VERY MUCH
CONVECTION...AND SO I HAVE NOT CHANGED THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS THINKING COULD CHANGE IF KYLE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ITS ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.

KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BERMUDA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/8...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. THE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT...AND MOST OF IT KEEPS KYLE OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA COASTLINE.
BASED ON THE TRENDS IN INITIAL MOTION AND THE SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS NOW OFFSHORE UNTIL 72 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THIS TRACK IS STILL TO THE LEFT OF NEARLY ALL THE MAJOR
GUIDANCE MODELS.

KYLE IS NOW TIED FOR THE 7TH LONGEST-LASTING ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WITH THE NEXT ADVISORY IT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NUMBER 6 SPOT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 28.3N 76.3W 25 KTS
12HR VT 10/1200Z 28.3N 77.7W 25 KTS
24HR VT 11/0000Z 28.6N 79.5W 25 KTS
36HR VT 11/1200Z 29.4N 80.9W 25 KTS
48HR VT 12/0000Z 31.0N 81.0W 25 KTS
72HR VT 13/0000Z 34.0N 79.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND


NNNN



ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 89
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2002

KYLE IS RAPIDLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. THE CONVECTION IS TAKING THE
SHAPE OF A FRONTAL BAND AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. THE CYCLONE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 20 KNOTS AND A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE EAST IS EXPECTED. KYLE SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW IN
A DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON KYLE...AND I HOPE
THERE WILL BE NO MORE SURPRISES.


ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 37.3N 73.1W 40 KTS
12HR VT 13/0000Z 39.0N 70.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 13/1200Z 40.0N 65.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 14/0000Z 40.0N 60.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

Ha, 89 that must have been fun. I guess even they had to joke around or they would go crazy... I love that the NHC just throws in references like earlyer this season with Kirk.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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