Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on September 20, 2012

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The extraordinary decline in Arctic sea ice during 2012 is finally over. Sea ice extent bottomed out on September 16, announced scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) on Wednesday. The sea ice extent fell to 3.41 million square kilometers, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that this year's weather was cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during this year's minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the Contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean."


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice reached its minimum on September 16, 2012, and was at its lowest extent since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

When was the last time the Arctic was this ice-free?
We can be confident that the Arctic did not see the kind of melting observed in 2012 going back over a century, as we have detailed ice edge records from ships (Walsh and Chapman, 2001). It is very unlikely the Northwest Passage was open between 1497 and 1900, since this spanned a cold period in the northern latitudes known as "The Little Ice Age". Ships periodically attempted the Passage and were foiled during this period. Research by Kinnard et al. (2011) shows that the Arctic ice melt in the past few decades is unprecedented for at least the past 1,450 years. We may have to go back to at least 4,000 B.C. to find the last time so little summer ice was present in the Arctic. Funder and Kjaer (2007) found extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coast, which suggested the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in the summer for over 1,000 years between 6,000 - 8,500 years ago, when Earth's orbital variations brought more sunlight to the Arctic in summer than at present. Prior to that, the next likely time was during the last inter-glacial period, 120,000 years ago. Arctic temperatures then were 2 - 3°C higher than present-day temperatures, and sea levels were 4 - 6 meters higher.


Figure 2. Year-averaged and 3-month averaged Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent from Chapman and Walsh (2001), as updated by the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. I've updated their graph to include 2011 plus the first 9 months of 2012.


Figure 3. Late summer Arctic sea ice extent over the past 1,450 years reconstructed from proxy data by Kinnard et al.'s 2011 paper, Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years. The solid pink line is a smoothed 40-year average, and the light pink areas shows a 95% confidence interval.  Note that the modern observational data in this figure extend through 2008, though the extent is not as low as the current annual data due to the 40-year smoothing. More commentary on this graph is available at skepticalscience.com.

When will the Arctic be ice-free in summer?
So, when will Santa's Workshop need to be retrofitted with pontoons to avoid sinking to the bottom of the Arctic Ocean in summer? It's hard to say, since there is a large amount of natural variability in Arctic weather patterns. Day et al. (2012) found that 5 to 31% of the changes in Arctic sea ice could be due to natural causes. However, the sea ice at the summer minimum has been declining at a rate of 12% per decade, far in excess of the worst-case scenario predicted in the 2007 IPCC report. Forecasts of an ice-free Arctic range from 20 - 30 years from now to much sooner. Just this week, Dr. Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University predicted that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within four years. A study by Stroeve et al. (2012), using the updated models being run for the 2014 IPCC report, found that "a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the next few decades is a distinct possibility." Of the 21 models considered, 2022 was the earliest date that complete Arctic sea ice occurred in September.


Video 1. A powerful storm wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover in August 2012. This visualization shows the strength and direction of the winds and their impact on the ice: the red vectors represent the fastest winds, while blue vectors stand for slower winds. According to NSIDC, the storm sped up the loss of the thin ice that appears to have been already on the verge of melting completely.Video credit: NASA.

But Antarctic sea ice is growing!
It's a sure thing that when Arctic sea ice hits new record lows, global warming contrarians will attempt to draw attention away from the Arctic by talking about sea ice around Antarctica. A case in point is an article that appeared in Forbes on Wednesday by James Taylor. Mr. Taylor wrote, "Antarctic sea ice set another record this past week, with the most amount of ice ever recorded on day 256 of the calendar year (September 12 of this leap year)...Amusingly, page after page of Google News results for Antarctic sea ice record show links to news articles breathlessly spreading fear and warning of calamity because Arctic sea ice recently set a 33-year low. Sea ice around one pole is shrinking while sea ice around another pole is growing. This sure sounds like a global warming crisis to me."

This analysis is highly misleading, as it ignores the fact that Antarctica has actually been warming in recent years. In fact, the oceans surrounding Antarctica have warmed faster than the global trend, and there has been accelerated melting of ocean-terminating Antarctic glaciers in recent years as a result of warmer waters eating away the glaciers. There is great concern among scientists about the stability of two glaciers in West Antarctica (the Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers) due the increase in ocean temperatures. These glaciers may suffer rapid retreats that will contribute significantly to global sea level rise.

Despite the warming going on in Antarctica, there has been a modest long-term increase in Antarctic sea ice in recent decades. So, how can more sea ice form on warmer ocean waters? As explained in an excellent article at skepticalscience.com, the reasons are complex. One reason is that the Southern Ocean consists of a layer of cold water near the surface and a layer of warmer water below. Water from the warmer layer rises up to the surface, melting sea ice. However, as air temperatures warm, the amount of rain and snowfall also increases. This freshens the surface waters, leading to a surface layer less dense than the saltier, warmer water below. The layers become more stratified and mix less. Less heat is transported upwards from the deeper, warmer layer. Hence less sea ice is melted (Zhang 2007). As the planet continues to warm, climate models predict that the growth in Antarctic sea ice will reverse, as the waters become too warm to support so much sea ice.


Figure 4. Surface air temperature over the ice-covered areas of the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica (top), and sea ice extent, observed by satellite (bottom). Image credit: (Zhang 2007).

Commentary: Earth's attic is on fire
To me, seeing the record Arctic sea ice loss of 2012 is like discovering a growing fire burning in Earth's attic. It is an emergency that requires immediate urgent attention. If you remove an area of sea ice 43% the size of the Contiguous U.S. from the ocean, it is guaranteed to have a significant impact on weather and climate. The extra heat and moisture added to the atmosphere as a result of all that open water over the pole may already be altering jet stream patterns in fall and winter, bringing an increase in extreme weather events. This year's record sea ice loss also contributed to an unprecedented melting event in Greenland. Continued sea ice loss will further increase melting from Greenland, contributing to sea level rise and storm surge damages. Global warming doubters tell us to pay attention to Earth's basement--the Antarctic--pointing out (incorrectly) that there is no fire burning there. But shouldn't we be paying attention to the steadily growing fire in our attic? The house all of humanity lives on is on fire. The fire is certain to spread, since we've ignored it for too long. It is capable of becoming a raging fire that will burn down our house, crippling civilization, unless we take swift and urgent action to combat it.

References
Funder, S. and K.H. Kjaer, 2007, "A sea-ice free Arctic Ocean?", Geophys. Res. Abstr. 9 (2007), p. 07815.

Kinnard et al., 2011, "Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years".

Walsh, J.E and W.L.Chapman, 2001, "Twentieth-century sea ice variations from observational data", Annals of Glaciology, 33, Number 1, January 2001, pp. 444-448.

Related info
Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low. September 6, 2012 blog post
Wunderground's Sea Ice page

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

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Quoting wxchaser97:

I've been making/tweaking this for a couple days.

I wasn't on here last night when you unveiled it to comment on it but I really like it. There's clearly a lot more that goes into a storm's potential effects than wind like the SSHS uses.
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1408. Grothar
Quoting mati:


Nestor somehow brings back memories of the Adam's Family


Well, don't fester about it all day.
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I've been making/tweaking this for a couple days.
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1406. mati
Quoting wxchaser97:

Van is a cool name but Nestor just sounds weird. I didn't know Rebekah was a name until this morning, I thought it was just Rebecca.


Nestor somehow brings back memories of the Adam's Family
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Still getting darker.I might need a hug


I've heard when it gets dark enough, the darkness becomes tangible enough to hug you...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9733
New JTWC advisory keeps Jelawat at 55kts, which may be slightly conservative as its probably around 60kts right now.



No big change to track or intensity forecasts, a slight shift south on the track bringing it closer to the Philippines:

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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
WOW! It looks like nightime here in south Palm Beach county..The streetlights just came on.... Never seen it this dark at 10:24 am...Unbelieveable.
Still getting darker.I might need a hug
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Quoting trumpman84:

Also, the title of the article mentioning a "fire" in the arctic reeks of alarmism. People don't doubt climate science because of lack of evidence. They doubt it because of the irresposible way it is presented by people like Dr. Masters and other alarmists.


Let me paraphrase your claim and argument...
I don't disagree with the claim based upon evidence, as their is tons of evidence supporting it, but I disagree with your claim because you are claiming it too loudly and frighteningly.

You realize how completely illogical that sounds, right?

Doctor, I don't believe I have a brain tumor. It's not that the MRI you showed me doesn't have a giant mass evident in my cerebral cortex, it's just that you act so certain of it and over concerned that it could cause my premature death. As such, I just really can't believe you.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Again, you've either magically missed or intentionally ignored the glaringly obvious: dealing in fossil fuels has created many dozens of billionaires and thousands of millionaires around the globe. That's a verifiable statement of fact. Meanwhile, performing climate science hasn't created a single billionaire, and one would be hard-pressed to find more than a small handful of AGW-supporting climate scientists with a seven-figure net worth derived from their work in that field. And for maybe the hundredth or so time, I'm not talking about people who may make money in the future off of windmills or solar panels or carbon offsets; I'm talking about climate scientists in the here and now, another tidbit you've repeatedly ignored. So, please--pretty please, with sugar on top--before talking again about "the man behind the curtain", try to look beyond your own biases in this matter. It'll make the conversation much more honest and fluid. Thanks!


Ya know Nea, the Doc wrote some interesting blogs about this stuff;

Heartland Institute documents reveal strategy of attacks against climate science
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:15 AM EST on February 17, 2012

and this one, which is actually linked in the above blog;

The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:07 AM EST on November 25, 2009
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WOW! It looks like nightime here in south Palm Beach county..The streetlights just came on.... Never seen it this dark at 10:24 am...Unbelieveable.
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There are 30 minutes until the Autumnal Equinox.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9733
Quoting AZweather13:


What kind of names are Nester and Van?

Van is a cool name but Nestor just sounds weird. I didn't know Rebekah was a name until this morning, I thought it was just Rebecca.
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1397. etxwx
It's not often that religion can be on topic on a weather blog, but here ya go - from the New York Times:
Glacier Retreat Prompts Vatican Approval of New Alpine Ice Prayer
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
Excerpt: 5:30 p.m. | Updated with a tweet |Jack Cushman, a Times journalist with a longstanding interest in the environment, just sent me a recent National Geographic web feature on a Vatican decision, prompted by the warming climate, to approve a change in a centuries-old annual Catholic ritual and prayer in a couple of villages high in the Swiss Alps. The longstanding rite was aimed at stopping the rapid advance of nearby glaciers during a period now called the Little Ice Age. Now, with the glaciers rapidly retreating, the revised prayer speaks of the value of the ice.
Here’s a snippet:

“We prayed for the ice to recede, and our prayer worked—too well,” said Herbert Volken, mountain guide and mayor of Conches, the district that includes Fiesch.

In 2009 the local parish council petitioned the Vatican to allow a change in the wording of the prayer. A year later the Holy See agreed, and Volken hopes the new prayer will work as well as the last one.

Continued here.
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1396. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39711
1395. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39711
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Kind of a weird scenario on the 6z GFS- You'll have to look at the whole run from 240 hours or so to see what I mean. But here's the end result:




Wow.

Long NE to SW movement.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1393. LargoFl
Quoting clamshell:


Darn it.

I wanted to mow the yard today. :-)

Oh oh my nose is growing longer.


LOL, but its getting serious in southern florida,been storming for a few days down there, flooding is going to be a huge problem over the next week as all that water hits the lakes and streams etc.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39711
Quoting AZweather13:


What kind of names are Nester and Van?



Van is kinda cool.

Nestor not nearly so.
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Quoting wxchaser97:


Here is the complete list, all I will say is another above average season.
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dorian
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy


What kind of names are Nester and Van?
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The ENSO models go down from Weak El Nino to Neutral
by early 2013.



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Quoting LargoFl:


Darn it.

I wanted to mow the yard today. :-)

Oh oh my nose is growing longer.


Member Since: June 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 125
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Have you tried the, you know, ignore button? I don't use it but I bet it'd come in handy for some. ;)


I wish some here would ignore me, but they don't and they minus my posts just because.
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1387. LargoFl

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SOUTH MIAMI...MIAMI BEACH...MIAMI...
KEY BISCAYNE...KENDALL...CORAL GABLES...

* UNTIL 1100 AM EDT

* AT 854 AM EDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT ON MIAMI BEACH REPORTED THAT CHASE
AVE TO ALTON ROAD WAS COMPLETELY FLOODED. WATER WAS OVER THE HOOD OF
CARS ON 20TH STREET WEST OF ALTON ROAD. NORTH BAY ROAD WAS ALSO
FLOODED. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE ADVISED AREA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MIAMI BEACH AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE
SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

LAT...LON 2580 8011 2573 8014 2567 8015 2566 8016
2568 8018 2574 8017 2574 8020 2572 8024
2564 8026 2561 8030 2557 8030 2548 8033
2551 8041 2596 8020 2596 8011

$$

AK
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39711
1386. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39711
Give up on that one Neo., that's one completely closed Clam shell.
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Quoting clamshell:


Wow!

Are your reading glasses covered with those AGW Gang stickers too?

Sure does seem to be the case.

One more time...

Take the stickers off your glasses and then you might be able to separate the scientists from the 'sneaky pete' outsiders.



Okay. Since you seem to be more concerned with trying to score points for some audience than getting at the truth, I can see I'm wasting my time with you. So carry on with your illogical belief that the hundreds of millions in profits earned each day by the fossil fuel industry in no way influences that industry's desire to maintain the status quo, while simultaneously fantasizing about the future "trillions" that you believe will be made by some pretend boogeymen "cramming their separate , one sided, greedy solutions down the throats of the citizens of world". Whatever that means.

Knock yourself out.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13579
Quoting Neapolitan:
Again, you've either magically missed or intentionally ignored the glaringly obvious: dealing in fossil fuels has created many dozens of billionaires and thousands of millionaires around the globe. That's a verifiable statement of fact. Meanwhile, performing climate science hasn't created a single billionaire, and one would be hard-pressed to find more than a small handful of AGW-supporting climate scientists with a seven-figure net worth derived from their work in that field. And for maybe the hundredth or so time, I'm not talking about people who may make money in the future off of windmills or solar panels or carbon offsets; I'm talking about climate scientists in the here and now, another tidbit you've repeatedly ignored. So, please--pretty please, with sugar on top--before talking again about "the man behind the curtain", try to look beyond your own biases in this matter. It'll make the conversation much more honest and fluid. Thanks!


Wow!

Are your reading glasses covered with those AGW Gang stickers too?

Sure does seem to be the case.

Try this new approach...

Take the stickers off your glasses and then see if you can separate the scientists from the greedy, self-serving 'sneaky pete' outsiders.

Once you do that, maybe the 'Aha' light might just come on for you.



Member Since: June 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 125
1381. Grothar
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Quoting Cat5hit:


What app is that?



PYKL3 radar is a really good app, I have it. Be advised though, it can sometimes run a little slow if your phone isn't designed to handle it, and/or you already have way too many apps and data. It is an impressive weather app though. It costs $10 but it's well worth it.
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Quoting weatherh98:


morning isaac ....

i didnt think it was but i knew it was soon too arive

It will be arriving soon, or you can travel to it.
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There are :

0 days, 1 hours, 0 minutes, 00 seconds

until the Autumnal Euquinox
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9733
1377. Grothar
WARNING: This animation contains no audio.


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Quoting yonzabam:



Are NASA in the AGW gang? Here are the decadal global temperature anomalies, compared to the average temperature from 1951-80. Source: NASA GISS

1981-90 +0.20C
1991-00 +0.32C
2001-10 +0.55C

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GL B.Ts+dSST.txt


Is NASA comprised of mainly scientists?

If the answer is 'yes',

then, no, it is not part of the AGW gang and

that means, like I said...

"...scientists are innocent victims who are being used to line the pockets of some very greedy outsiders."


Member Since: June 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 125
Quoting wxchaser97:

Not here, not yet. It will be coming sooner or later, morning harrison.


morning isaac ....

i didnt think it was but i knew it was soon too arive
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Quoting weatherh98:


where is the MJO

Not here, not yet. It will be coming sooner or later, morning harrison.
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Quoting clamshell:


Nobody is attacking the scientists. The scientists are innocent victims who are being used to line the pockets of some very greedy outsiders. I call those outsiders, the AGW Gang.

Again I am reminded of that quote from a special movie...'Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.'

That is what the AGW gang wants everybody to do.

The issue is with the people behind the curtain who stand to make trillions off of those scientists by cramming their separate , one sided, greedy solutions down the throats of the citizens of world.

Here we are, on the threshold of a dream, with science and technology growing leaps and bounds, and the greedy 'sneaky petes' on the sidelines, are drooling at how they are going to capitalize on the work of honest scientists who are doing their very best to interpret what they are see, thanks to the new equipment at their fingertips.

Perhaps the scientists need to stand up and urge everyone to step back and lighten up just a wee bit. While the instrumentation is providing them with excellent data, the interpretation of that data is still not set in stone. Especially when the solutions based on those interpretations have yet to be proven correct.

Except, of course, for those who have bumper stickers proclaiming
"The AGW gang says it, I believe them, and that is all there is to it.".

Like the one on your bumper, I am sure.


Again, you've either magically missed or intentionally ignored the glaringly obvious: dealing in fossil fuels has created many dozens of billionaires and thousands of millionaires around the globe. That's a verifiable statement of fact. Meanwhile, performing climate science hasn't created a single billionaire, and one would be hard-pressed to find more than a small handful of AGW-supporting climate scientists with a seven-figure net worth derived from their work in that field. And for maybe the hundredth or so time, I'm not talking about people who may make money in the future off of windmills or solar panels or carbon offsets; I'm talking about climate scientists in the here and now, another tidbit you've repeatedly ignored. So, please--pretty please, with sugar on top--before talking again about "the man behind the curtain", try to look beyond your own biases in this matter. It'll make the conversation much more honest and fluid. Thanks!
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13579
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I haven't given up on this year yet. I definitely don't expect any crazy amount of storms in the next couple months, but I do think the CONUS will face one more threat from a Caribbean storm. I'm thinking we'll see something at some point in the Caribbean and have it take a Wilma like track (minus the explosive intensification of course) as the repeated troughs we are seeing will likely keep the Gulf Coast protected but leave the peninsula of Florida vulnerable to recurving storms. I'm thinking mid October as a general timeline.


where is the MJO
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This line of storms should continue to intensify as it pushes through the SPC's slight risk area for today.



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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I haven't given up on this year yet. I definitely don't expect any crazy amount of storms in the next couple months, but I do think the CONUS will face one more threat from a Caribbean storm. I'm thinking we'll see something at some point in the Caribbean and have it take a Wilma like track (minus the explosive intensification of course) as the repeated troughs we are seeing will likely keep the Gulf Coast protected but leave the peninsula of Florida vulnerable to recurving storms. I'm thinking mid October as a general timeline.

I still think we will see a couple storms, including something in the Caribbean. The TCHP values are very high in the NW Caribbean so we could see some RI.
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Quoting weatherh98:


she said yes....

If you say so, lol.
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I haven't given up on this year yet. I definitely don't expect any crazy amount of storms in the next couple months, but I do think the CONUS will face one more threat from a Caribbean storm. I'm thinking we'll see something at some point in the Caribbean and have it take a Wilma like track (minus the explosive intensification of course) as the repeated troughs we are seeing will likely keep the Gulf Coast protected but leave the peninsula of Florida vulnerable to recurving storms. I'm thinking mid October as a general timeline.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Look like we will have TS Miriam at 8 am PDT.


she said yes....
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Have you tried the, you know, ignore button? I don't use it but I bet it's come in handy for some. ;)

It is handy, only for when really necessary but I know you wouldn't know.
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Quoting darbyderp:
hello ladies and gentlebots, what a wet and dismal morning.

I just wanted to say how much i loved reading this blog and comments this season. yes, loved. past tense.
I used to bolt out of bed first thing in the morning, and rush to check the weather. I learned many awesome new things here, and thats part of why i think i feel so bad at the moment.

I'm breaking up with you.

what was once intelligent conversation, and cooperative learning has dissolved into bickering ala 4chan.

is this what happens when the season "ends"?

some of ya'll are still excellent posters, but recently, everytime i come here, a select few others are ruining the party. my blood pressure seems to be rising, and I'm learning nothing new.

maybe see you next season, and thanks for ruining this for me. a**holes.

Have you tried the, you know, ignore button? I don't use it but I bet it'd come in handy for some. ;)
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Quoting clamshell:


Nobody is attacking the scientists. The scientists are innocent victims who are being used to line the pockets of some very greedy outsiders. I call those outsiders, the AGW Gang.

Again I am reminded of that quote from a special movie...'Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.'

That is what the AGW gang wants everybody to do.

The issue is with the people behind the curtain who stand to make trillions off of those scientists by cramming their separate , one sided, greedy solutions down the throats of the citizens of world.

Here we are, on the threshold of a dream, with science and technology growing leaps and bounds, and the greedy 'sneaky petes' on the sidelines, are drooling at how they are going to capitalize on the work of honest scientists who are doing their very best to interpret what they are see, thanks to the new equipment at their fingertips.

Perhaps the scientists need to stand up and urge everyone to step back and lighten up just a wee bit. While the instrumentation is providing them with excellent data, the interpretation of that data is still not set in stone. Especially when the solutions based on those interpretations have yet to be proven correct.

Except, of course, for those who have bumper stickers proclaiming
"The AGW gang says it, I believe them, and that is all there is to it.".

Like the one on your bumper, I am sure.





Are NASA in the AGW gang? Here are the decadal global temperature anomalies, compared to the average temperature from 1951-80. Source: NASA GISS

1981-90 +0.20C
1991-00 +0.32C
2001-10 +0.55C

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GL B.Ts+dSST.txt
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2935
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Hey! The tropics are completely murdered right now, and it doesnt appear that were gonna get much activity from here to December. Just a fact of life, Im over it. :)

I still got winter to hope/predict for, yeah I don't see much more than 1-2 more storms before the season is over.
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edit: if i don't have anything nice to say, i shouldn't say anything at all
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Quoting Cat5hit:
Probably the wrong time to post this for a good response, but here goes.

Any truth to this article?

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/ project_syndicate/2012/09/thanks_to_fracking_u_s_c arbon_emissions_are_at_the_lowest_levels_in_20_yea rs_.html

In a nutshell it says the US carbon emission are the lowest in years due to natural gas and fracking. It says emissions are the lowest PER CAPITA since 1961. (Granted there are more people now, so the overall emissions are higher).

I don't have an opinion either way - especially since the claims seem almost unbelievable.
The figures are correct: thanks primarily to cheaper natural gas (due to fracking and other extraction methods), U.S. CO2 emissions are at a 20-year low. But before anyone breaks out the bubbly just yet, there are a couple of things to keep in mind. A) While CO2 emissions are down, methane leaks from gas wells can more than make up the difference, as methane is 20 times more powerful a greenhouse gas than is CO2. 2) Much of the coal that's being mined in the U.S. but not being burned by U.S. power plants is being shipped overseas in massive quantities, primarily to China. So, yes, our emissions are down, but China's are skyrocketing. 3) The U.S. still has the highest per-capita CO2 emissions of any large industrialized nation.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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