Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on September 20, 2012

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The extraordinary decline in Arctic sea ice during 2012 is finally over. Sea ice extent bottomed out on September 16, announced scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) on Wednesday. The sea ice extent fell to 3.41 million square kilometers, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that this year's weather was cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during this year's minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the Contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean."


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice reached its minimum on September 16, 2012, and was at its lowest extent since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

When was the last time the Arctic was this ice-free?
We can be confident that the Arctic did not see the kind of melting observed in 2012 going back over a century, as we have detailed ice edge records from ships (Walsh and Chapman, 2001). It is very unlikely the Northwest Passage was open between 1497 and 1900, since this spanned a cold period in the northern latitudes known as "The Little Ice Age". Ships periodically attempted the Passage and were foiled during this period. Research by Kinnard et al. (2011) shows that the Arctic ice melt in the past few decades is unprecedented for at least the past 1,450 years. We may have to go back to at least 4,000 B.C. to find the last time so little summer ice was present in the Arctic. Funder and Kjaer (2007) found extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coast, which suggested the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in the summer for over 1,000 years between 6,000 - 8,500 years ago, when Earth's orbital variations brought more sunlight to the Arctic in summer than at present. Prior to that, the next likely time was during the last inter-glacial period, 120,000 years ago. Arctic temperatures then were 2 - 3°C higher than present-day temperatures, and sea levels were 4 - 6 meters higher.


Figure 2. Year-averaged and 3-month averaged Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent from Chapman and Walsh (2001), as updated by the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. I've updated their graph to include 2011 plus the first 9 months of 2012.


Figure 3. Late summer Arctic sea ice extent over the past 1,450 years reconstructed from proxy data by Kinnard et al.'s 2011 paper, Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years. The solid pink line is a smoothed 40-year average, and the light pink areas shows a 95% confidence interval.  Note that the modern observational data in this figure extend through 2008, though the extent is not as low as the current annual data due to the 40-year smoothing. More commentary on this graph is available at skepticalscience.com.

When will the Arctic be ice-free in summer?
So, when will Santa's Workshop need to be retrofitted with pontoons to avoid sinking to the bottom of the Arctic Ocean in summer? It's hard to say, since there is a large amount of natural variability in Arctic weather patterns. Day et al. (2012) found that 5 to 31% of the changes in Arctic sea ice could be due to natural causes. However, the sea ice at the summer minimum has been declining at a rate of 12% per decade, far in excess of the worst-case scenario predicted in the 2007 IPCC report. Forecasts of an ice-free Arctic range from 20 - 30 years from now to much sooner. Just this week, Dr. Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University predicted that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within four years. A study by Stroeve et al. (2012), using the updated models being run for the 2014 IPCC report, found that "a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the next few decades is a distinct possibility." Of the 21 models considered, 2022 was the earliest date that complete Arctic sea ice occurred in September.


Video 1. A powerful storm wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover in August 2012. This visualization shows the strength and direction of the winds and their impact on the ice: the red vectors represent the fastest winds, while blue vectors stand for slower winds. According to NSIDC, the storm sped up the loss of the thin ice that appears to have been already on the verge of melting completely.Video credit: NASA.

But Antarctic sea ice is growing!
It's a sure thing that when Arctic sea ice hits new record lows, global warming contrarians will attempt to draw attention away from the Arctic by talking about sea ice around Antarctica. A case in point is an article that appeared in Forbes on Wednesday by James Taylor. Mr. Taylor wrote, "Antarctic sea ice set another record this past week, with the most amount of ice ever recorded on day 256 of the calendar year (September 12 of this leap year)...Amusingly, page after page of Google News results for Antarctic sea ice record show links to news articles breathlessly spreading fear and warning of calamity because Arctic sea ice recently set a 33-year low. Sea ice around one pole is shrinking while sea ice around another pole is growing. This sure sounds like a global warming crisis to me."

This analysis is highly misleading, as it ignores the fact that Antarctica has actually been warming in recent years. In fact, the oceans surrounding Antarctica have warmed faster than the global trend, and there has been accelerated melting of ocean-terminating Antarctic glaciers in recent years as a result of warmer waters eating away the glaciers. There is great concern among scientists about the stability of two glaciers in West Antarctica (the Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers) due the increase in ocean temperatures. These glaciers may suffer rapid retreats that will contribute significantly to global sea level rise.

Despite the warming going on in Antarctica, there has been a modest long-term increase in Antarctic sea ice in recent decades. So, how can more sea ice form on warmer ocean waters? As explained in an excellent article at skepticalscience.com, the reasons are complex. One reason is that the Southern Ocean consists of a layer of cold water near the surface and a layer of warmer water below. Water from the warmer layer rises up to the surface, melting sea ice. However, as air temperatures warm, the amount of rain and snowfall also increases. This freshens the surface waters, leading to a surface layer less dense than the saltier, warmer water below. The layers become more stratified and mix less. Less heat is transported upwards from the deeper, warmer layer. Hence less sea ice is melted (Zhang 2007). As the planet continues to warm, climate models predict that the growth in Antarctic sea ice will reverse, as the waters become too warm to support so much sea ice.


Figure 4. Surface air temperature over the ice-covered areas of the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica (top), and sea ice extent, observed by satellite (bottom). Image credit: (Zhang 2007).

Commentary: Earth's attic is on fire
To me, seeing the record Arctic sea ice loss of 2012 is like discovering a growing fire burning in Earth's attic. It is an emergency that requires immediate urgent attention. If you remove an area of sea ice 43% the size of the Contiguous U.S. from the ocean, it is guaranteed to have a significant impact on weather and climate. The extra heat and moisture added to the atmosphere as a result of all that open water over the pole may already be altering jet stream patterns in fall and winter, bringing an increase in extreme weather events. This year's record sea ice loss also contributed to an unprecedented melting event in Greenland. Continued sea ice loss will further increase melting from Greenland, contributing to sea level rise and storm surge damages. Global warming doubters tell us to pay attention to Earth's basement--the Antarctic--pointing out (incorrectly) that there is no fire burning there. But shouldn't we be paying attention to the steadily growing fire in our attic? The house all of humanity lives on is on fire. The fire is certain to spread, since we've ignored it for too long. It is capable of becoming a raging fire that will burn down our house, crippling civilization, unless we take swift and urgent action to combat it.

References
Funder, S. and K.H. Kjaer, 2007, "A sea-ice free Arctic Ocean?", Geophys. Res. Abstr. 9 (2007), p. 07815.

Kinnard et al., 2011, "Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years".

Walsh, J.E and W.L.Chapman, 2001, "Twentieth-century sea ice variations from observational data", Annals of Glaciology, 33, Number 1, January 2001, pp. 444-448.

Related info
Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low. September 6, 2012 blog post
Wunderground's Sea Ice page

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

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94L and Nadine:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Looks like the poor people in Taiwan have to deal with yet another storm knocking at there door.Jeez Louis the pattern just didn't set up in their favor this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting JLPR2:

To me Oscar sounds like a hurricane.
Oh you.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
Nadine is hanging in--and strengthening:

AL, 14, 2012092100, , BEST, 0, 359N, 280W, 55, 981, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 50, 70, 1014, 425, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, M,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
325. Are you really suggesting that the world should regulate families like China?

I'm pretty sure there are far better ways to cut CO2 than stripping freedoms from people.
Levi there is a finite amount
of space and food on this planet. It is not a very pleasant topic to discuss, but sooner or later the
world will not be able to support its population.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
325. Are you really suggesting that the world should regulate families like China?

I'm pretty sure there are far better ways to cut CO2 than stripping freedoms from people.
I agree.I believe in protecting the environment but I don't want my freedoms taken away in the process.This is what some people discuss the other time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Myth?
Yes, myth:
Myth ('mith) - noun 1. a popular belief or tradition that has grown up around something or someone. 2. an unfounded or false notion. 3. a person or thing having only an imaginary or unverifiable existence.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Jelawat looks suspicious.


Raw T numbers are jumping, looks like a CDO developing, I'd expect it to be a typhoon by this time tomorrow... 18z GFS appears to show a big hit on Taiwan.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
325. Are you really suggesting that the world should regulate families like China?

I'm pretty sure there are far better ways to cut CO2 than stripping freedoms from people.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening all.

All I have to say about the doc's header blog is,

Bummer, man....

Massively depressing...

You guys realize that even if we are just going through a little global warming age, that could mean 450 years of warmer temps in our hemisphere? The Bahamas might become underwater reefs again...

BTW, I keep looking to the west and wondering when that threatening rain will actually fall....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:



Well that's the thing isn't it? I think many people don't realise how oppressed and powerless women are in many places. They are kept from education, have no means of obtaining birth control (and if they do can be forced into thinking it's bad). Most places with high birth rates, are places where oppression of women is prevalent. So to say, population control should start with those countries that have high birth rates per female, is easier said than done sadly. And even if you take out the oppression scenario, there are some places where a large family is needed. To have family farming etc. The US and EU were once that way, especially in rural areas, you bred your farm hands!
Anyhow, it's another area unlikely to change. Really, 'mainly' only westernised countries are women friendly in that they aren't oppressed so greatly, so very unlikely that birth control measures would succeed in those places...or even be accepted
A certain western country I know of rewards women with lots of children with more welfare and food stamps. In return, they vote those politicians back into office for supporting a welfare state.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jelawat looks suspicious.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
Another good day to get out and enjoy the weather which .Definitely one of the best weather days I've experienced in 2012.Wow with the way nuts are sounding on here it would seem we need to go back to the cave man days with when we didn't have our "fancy living and technology" and the world population was only in the hundreds maybe a few thousands.Lol.
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Yay, new Star Wars Movie on Channel 9 (ABC)
!
R2!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Did Pouch 30/31L die?
I havent been watching the tropics terribly much lately :P
If 94L can form as Nadine is called Post-tropical then we can keep the activity train going...
We have had non-stop acitvity since Mid August, If "Oscar" can stall and give us some time to get Pouch 31L to get going, or something, maybe we can keep the Continuous activity through the end of the month.

I don't know if the pouch is still there or not, it would be cool to keep things going.

Quoting KoritheMan:

Unless there is some improvement overnight, I'm beginning to doubt that.

It still could happen, but some confidence is lost now.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
343. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


Some names just carry that "I'ma **** your **** up connotation", don't they?

Gilbert, Hugo, Andrew, Opal, Ivan, Dennis, etc. It's like you just know.


I disagree with Dennis. I guess its all opinions. XD

To me Oscar sounds like a hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bern99:

And you know what?

The best way to achieve that is to raise the standard of living of people there, especially by educating women.

A worthy cause.

Of course, reducing the amount of CO2 that's dumped out by the already developed nations is just as important. No point spending big $$ to reduce potential future emissions from the third world, if the first world (that caused the problem so far) just keeps on making it worse.



Well that's the thing isn't it? I think many people don't realise how oppressed and powerless women are in many places. They are kept from education, have no means of obtaining birth control (and if they do can be forced into thinking it's bad). Most places with high birth rates, are places where oppression of women is prevalent. So to say, population control should start with those countries that have high birth rates per female, is easier said than done sadly. And even if you take out the oppression scenario, there are some places where a large family is needed. To have family farming etc. The US and EU were once that way, especially in rural areas, you bred your farm hands!
Anyhow, it's another area unlikely to change. Really, 'mainly' only westernised countries are women friendly in that they aren't oppressed so greatly, so very unlikely that birth control measures would succeed in those places...or even be accepted
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 871
been watching water levels now at this location merritt island florida for 30 yrs i have not seen any change out of the ordinary yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Did Pouch 30/31L die?
I havent been watching the tropics terribly much lately :P
If 94L can form as Nadine is called Post-tropical then we can keep the activity train going...
We have had non-stop acitvity since Mid August, If "Oscar" can stall and give us some time to get Pouch 31L to get going, or something, maybe we can keep the Continuous activity through the end of the month.
94L isn't going to stall, neat as that would be. :P
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333

Quoting wxchaser97:
94L stays at 60%, I still think it could develop.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Unless there is some improvement overnight, I'm beginning to doubt that.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU SEP 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Did Pouch 30/31L die?
I havent been watching the tropics terribly much lately :P
If 94L can form as Nadine is called Post-tropical then we can keep the activity train going...
We have had non-stop acitvity since Mid August, If "Oscar" can stall and give us some time to get Pouch 31L to get going, or something, maybe we can keep the Continuous activity through the end of the month.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L stays at 60%, I still think it could develop.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU SEP 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
Quoting angelafritz:


Dr. Masters actually addresses this article and myth in this very blog.

Myth?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012

...NADINE HESITATES AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 28.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM S OF PICO IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
000
ABNT20 KNHC 202347
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF PICO
IN THE AZORES.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Quoting angelafritz:


Dr. Masters actually addresses this article and myth in this very blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:
Anyway, one of the best ways to stop FUTURE CO2 production would be if mid-eastern and African women stopped having 8 children per woman, and decreased to a more reasonable 2.5.



And you know what?

The best way to achieve that is to raise the standard of living of people there, especially by educating women.

A worthy cause.

Of course, reducing the amount of CO2 that's dumped out by the already developed nations is just as important. No point spending big $$ to reduce potential future emissions from the third world, if the first world (that caused the problem so far) just keeps on making it worse.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Docsam348:
To complete your research you should be aware that the RCMP wooden hulled schooner, the "St.Roch" sailed the northern route of the North West Passage in 1944, without benefit of an ice breaker. Some recent sailors have claimed to be the first in recent times. They were not. Some feel there was less ice at that time than now. The "St Roch" is now in the Vancouver Martime Museum. Her journey is well documented.


That's true, that an ice-fortified wooden schooner sailed the NWP back in 1944.

A bit different to tackling it in a 27-foot fibreglass yacht, as was done last year.

The point isn't that it's never been possible to sail the NWP before - obviously it has. But now you can do it in a fibreglass yacht, in just a few weeks, compared to the almost three months that St Roch took in 1944. And the NWP has been "open" (navigable to non-icebreakers) very regularly lately, compared to previous decades where it was closed to any ship not ice-hardened.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
328. angelafritz (Admin)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Antarctic sea ice set another record this past week, with the most amount of ice ever recorded
Link


Dr. Masters actually addresses this article and myth in this very blog.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Anyway, one of the best ways to stop FUTURE CO2 production would be if mid-eastern and African women stopped having 8 children per woman, and decreased to a more reasonable 2.5. That would cut out around 60% of the net population growth over the next 2 decades compared to projections of present day trends.

Seriously, that's actually the easiest and most efficient thing that can be done.

Maybe we need an international law forbidding reproduction beyond 3 surviving children per woman. This would reduce world population to 8 billion by the mid 2030's, instead of 9 billion it would be on the present day trend, cutting net CO2 production by about 12.5%...


+ 100000000000
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting RTSplayer:
Anyway, one of the best ways to stop FUTURE CO2 production would be if mid-eastern and African women stopped having 8 children per woman, and decreased to a more reasonable 2.5. That would cut out around 60% of the net population growth over the next 2 decades compared to projections of present day trends.

Seriously, that's actually the easiest and most efficient thing that can be done.

Maybe we need an international law forbidding reproduction beyond 3 surviving children per woman. This would reduce world population to 8 billion by the mid 2030's, instead of 9 billion it would be on the present day trend, cutting net CO2 production by about 12.5%...


I agree.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
Anyway, one of the best ways to stop FUTURE CO2 production would be if mid-eastern and African women stopped having 8 children per woman, and decreased to a more reasonable 2.5. That would cut out around 60% of the net population growth over the next 2 decades compared to projections of present day trends.

Seriously, that's actually the easiest and most efficient thing that can be done.

Maybe we need an international law forbidding reproduction beyond 3 surviving children per woman. This would reduce world population to 8 billion by the mid 2030's, instead of 9 billion it would be on the present day trend, cutting net CO2 production by about 12.5%...


Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting sheople:

So when someone mentions chemtrails and their possible existance you say give me proof. I say prove they do not exist.
That's not how the burden of proof works. The onus to prove something is on the person making the claim, not the one skeptical of it (unless of course, the skeptic makes an absolute statement as to their nonexistence).

I'm open to new theories and ideas, but open-mindedness isn't the same thing as accepting things without evidence. Anecdotes (in your case, chemtrails) have never been reliable or particularly corroborative as evidence. It's the reason eyewitness testimony is the weakest form of evidence in science.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
323. angelafritz (Admin)
Quoting aburttschell:



No my point is that most models projected the sea level to rise exponentially in that time frame, but in fact they have fallen.


I think this is what you're referring to.

Sea level continues to rise. Unfortunately we cannot just look at a few years of data to call climate change a non-issue.
Please excuse the break from the topic of arctic sea ice retreating. Rather I would like to make a point about what is so loved here and that is scientific proof and peer reviewed studies to back up various claims. Take for example our governments stance on cancer treatment. There are known cancer cures and the people who have pioneered these cures have been ridiculed and in some cases driven out of our country, for CURING cancer. So I tend to not believe what federal officials claim to be the only valid treatment. There have been numerous discoveries made with regards to getting off fossil fuels but most have been bought up and shelved by those that make a profit off of the oil industry.

So when someone mentions chemtrails and their possible existance you say give me proof. I say prove they do not exist.

When I moved to kansas 11 years ago I barely saw commercial air traffic at all, they were so high up you could hardly hear them. in the past three years we have been bombarded by hundreds of planes flying much lower and leaving chemtrails behind them sometimes making 180 deg turns in plain view, something commercial jets do not do. So take it easy on new information and people who are trying to make others aware of problems with our environment.

When all you have is a hammer every problem starts to look like a nail rings true here as far as I can see.
Member Since: September 12, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
Quoting wxchaser97:

That is one of those creepy names to me, and then Igor became a powerful hurricane.


Some names just carry that "I'ma **** your **** up connotation", don't they?

Gilbert, Hugo, Andrew, Opal, Ivan, Dennis, etc. It's like you just know.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
Quoting RTSplayer:


Igor:


That is one of those creepy names to me, and then Igor became a powerful hurricane.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I think the proper wording is has changed little in organization. :P

Wouldn't shock me if 94L develops, starting to look very possible.

The proper wording is somewhere around what you said, 94L should be able to pull off getting a name. As for how strong it gets I don't see 94L becoming too strong.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
94L seems to be struggling a little... It's not losing organization but it doesn't really appear to be gaining any either. I'd expect 70% at 8PM but I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see classification until tomorrow afternoon or night.



I think the proper wording is has changed little in organization. :P

Wouldn't shock me if 94L develops, starting to look very possible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Luckily for you it should get a name tomorrow. It is close as is.

I think it should be named tomorrow, but it could never organize enough.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting allancalderini:
in your opinion which has been a ridiculous name that has been a powerful Hurricane.


Igor:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm back, I see Nadine is still the same and 94L should be at 60-70%.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting allancalderini:
in your opinion which has been a ridiculous name that has been a powerful Hurricane.
Good question.

Claudette in 1991 immediately springs to mind. I'm also not particularly fond of Harvey in 1981.

Claudette





Harvey



Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
Quoting allancalderini:
I say it would stay at 60%.I would be sad if it doesn`t get the name Oscar.

Luckily for you it should get a name tomorrow. It is close as is.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
Quoting falloch:
This is a very naive question, but now that the Arctic ice is melting, what happens to the polar bears? Arctic foxes I can see adapting somehow, but arctus maritimos has such a specific environment - walruses are not an easy food source since their skins are tough and fighting tusks make fights even tougher. What do scientists do when they come across a starving polar bear? Shoot it to put it out of its misery? Will there be a cull, or just loads of polar bears starving to death? Is that not happening even now? Is there any place in the Arctic they'll survive, like Svalbard? Or will all frozen Arctic places be gone in the next 30-50 years, and we'll only see polar bears in zoos?


Easiest response is "mixed bag".

Just remember this, and I don't say this lightly, but in some cases extinction might not matter too much.

Nobody misses Mammoths or the Short-Faced Bear.

Historically, mega-mammals die as temperatures warm, and mega-reptiles thrive when temperatures warm. Crocodiles, Alligators, and Snakes will appreciate elevated temperatures as it will increase their body's efficiency and growth rate, meanwhile, large mammals, such as bears and cattle, will have a harder time regulating their temperature.

That's not what I would hope for, and it's certainly not the PC response, but it is realism.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Or not at all. Which is unfortunate considering how eager I am to eliminate such a ridiculous name.
in your opinion which has been a ridiculous name that has been a powerful Hurricane.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Climate Conversations - Is progress on climate change an illusion?

By David Hodgkinson


The world is not organised to deal with the climate change problem. Climate change is a global problem, but there is, of course, no global government with the interests of the earth as a whole at heart. Rather, there are sovereign states, the interests and concerns of which are very different.


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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
94L seems to be struggling a little... It's not losing organization but it doesn't really appear to be gaining any either. I'd expect 70% at 8PM but I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see classification until tomorrow afternoon or night.

I say it would stay at 60%.I would be sad if it doesn`t get the name Oscar.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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