Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on September 20, 2012

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The extraordinary decline in Arctic sea ice during 2012 is finally over. Sea ice extent bottomed out on September 16, announced scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) on Wednesday. The sea ice extent fell to 3.41 million square kilometers, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that this year's weather was cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during this year's minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the Contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean."


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice reached its minimum on September 16, 2012, and was at its lowest extent since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

When was the last time the Arctic was this ice-free?
We can be confident that the Arctic did not see the kind of melting observed in 2012 going back over a century, as we have detailed ice edge records from ships (Walsh and Chapman, 2001). It is very unlikely the Northwest Passage was open between 1497 and 1900, since this spanned a cold period in the northern latitudes known as "The Little Ice Age". Ships periodically attempted the Passage and were foiled during this period. Research by Kinnard et al. (2011) shows that the Arctic ice melt in the past few decades is unprecedented for at least the past 1,450 years. We may have to go back to at least 4,000 B.C. to find the last time so little summer ice was present in the Arctic. Funder and Kjaer (2007) found extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coast, which suggested the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in the summer for over 1,000 years between 6,000 - 8,500 years ago, when Earth's orbital variations brought more sunlight to the Arctic in summer than at present. Prior to that, the next likely time was during the last inter-glacial period, 120,000 years ago. Arctic temperatures then were 2 - 3°C higher than present-day temperatures, and sea levels were 4 - 6 meters higher.


Figure 2. Year-averaged and 3-month averaged Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent from Chapman and Walsh (2001), as updated by the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. I've updated their graph to include 2011 plus the first 9 months of 2012.


Figure 3. Late summer Arctic sea ice extent over the past 1,450 years reconstructed from proxy data by Kinnard et al.'s 2011 paper, Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years. The solid pink line is a smoothed 40-year average, and the light pink areas shows a 95% confidence interval.  Note that the modern observational data in this figure extend through 2008, though the extent is not as low as the current annual data due to the 40-year smoothing. More commentary on this graph is available at skepticalscience.com.

When will the Arctic be ice-free in summer?
So, when will Santa's Workshop need to be retrofitted with pontoons to avoid sinking to the bottom of the Arctic Ocean in summer? It's hard to say, since there is a large amount of natural variability in Arctic weather patterns. Day et al. (2012) found that 5 to 31% of the changes in Arctic sea ice could be due to natural causes. However, the sea ice at the summer minimum has been declining at a rate of 12% per decade, far in excess of the worst-case scenario predicted in the 2007 IPCC report. Forecasts of an ice-free Arctic range from 20 - 30 years from now to much sooner. Just this week, Dr. Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University predicted that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within four years. A study by Stroeve et al. (2012), using the updated models being run for the 2014 IPCC report, found that "a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the next few decades is a distinct possibility." Of the 21 models considered, 2022 was the earliest date that complete Arctic sea ice occurred in September.


Video 1. A powerful storm wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover in August 2012. This visualization shows the strength and direction of the winds and their impact on the ice: the red vectors represent the fastest winds, while blue vectors stand for slower winds. According to NSIDC, the storm sped up the loss of the thin ice that appears to have been already on the verge of melting completely.Video credit: NASA.

But Antarctic sea ice is growing!
It's a sure thing that when Arctic sea ice hits new record lows, global warming contrarians will attempt to draw attention away from the Arctic by talking about sea ice around Antarctica. A case in point is an article that appeared in Forbes on Wednesday by James Taylor. Mr. Taylor wrote, "Antarctic sea ice set another record this past week, with the most amount of ice ever recorded on day 256 of the calendar year (September 12 of this leap year)...Amusingly, page after page of Google News results for Antarctic sea ice record show links to news articles breathlessly spreading fear and warning of calamity because Arctic sea ice recently set a 33-year low. Sea ice around one pole is shrinking while sea ice around another pole is growing. This sure sounds like a global warming crisis to me."

This analysis is highly misleading, as it ignores the fact that Antarctica has actually been warming in recent years. In fact, the oceans surrounding Antarctica have warmed faster than the global trend, and there has been accelerated melting of ocean-terminating Antarctic glaciers in recent years as a result of warmer waters eating away the glaciers. There is great concern among scientists about the stability of two glaciers in West Antarctica (the Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers) due the increase in ocean temperatures. These glaciers may suffer rapid retreats that will contribute significantly to global sea level rise.

Despite the warming going on in Antarctica, there has been a modest long-term increase in Antarctic sea ice in recent decades. So, how can more sea ice form on warmer ocean waters? As explained in an excellent article at skepticalscience.com, the reasons are complex. One reason is that the Southern Ocean consists of a layer of cold water near the surface and a layer of warmer water below. Water from the warmer layer rises up to the surface, melting sea ice. However, as air temperatures warm, the amount of rain and snowfall also increases. This freshens the surface waters, leading to a surface layer less dense than the saltier, warmer water below. The layers become more stratified and mix less. Less heat is transported upwards from the deeper, warmer layer. Hence less sea ice is melted (Zhang 2007). As the planet continues to warm, climate models predict that the growth in Antarctic sea ice will reverse, as the waters become too warm to support so much sea ice.


Figure 4. Surface air temperature over the ice-covered areas of the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica (top), and sea ice extent, observed by satellite (bottom). Image credit: (Zhang 2007).

Commentary: Earth's attic is on fire
To me, seeing the record Arctic sea ice loss of 2012 is like discovering a growing fire burning in Earth's attic. It is an emergency that requires immediate urgent attention. If you remove an area of sea ice 43% the size of the Contiguous U.S. from the ocean, it is guaranteed to have a significant impact on weather and climate. The extra heat and moisture added to the atmosphere as a result of all that open water over the pole may already be altering jet stream patterns in fall and winter, bringing an increase in extreme weather events. This year's record sea ice loss also contributed to an unprecedented melting event in Greenland. Continued sea ice loss will further increase melting from Greenland, contributing to sea level rise and storm surge damages. Global warming doubters tell us to pay attention to Earth's basement--the Antarctic--pointing out (incorrectly) that there is no fire burning there. But shouldn't we be paying attention to the steadily growing fire in our attic? The house all of humanity lives on is on fire. The fire is certain to spread, since we've ignored it for too long. It is capable of becoming a raging fire that will burn down our house, crippling civilization, unless we take swift and urgent action to combat it.

References
Funder, S. and K.H. Kjaer, 2007, "A sea-ice free Arctic Ocean?", Geophys. Res. Abstr. 9 (2007), p. 07815.

Kinnard et al., 2011, "Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years".

Walsh, J.E and W.L.Chapman, 2001, "Twentieth-century sea ice variations from observational data", Annals of Glaciology, 33, Number 1, January 2001, pp. 444-448.

Related info
Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low. September 6, 2012 blog post
Wunderground's Sea Ice page

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

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Quoting G8GT:
With all due respect, Dr. Masters, the ANTARCTIC ice is at record HIGH levels.

Please focus on the global issues, not just one hemisphere.

Ice lost in the Arctic is ice gained in the Antarctic.

Link

It's not as bad as all that.


Yes, please do focus on the global issues, not just the Southern Hemisphere.




Epic fail?

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Personally, I've found that I no longer react to such ignorant comments, let alone reply to them. I have grown from being very sardonic to just reading--and not even thinking about what I read--because I know the person is too oblivious and he or she is not worth a nanosecond of my time. I would say I still read it for some confirmation. It also doesn't help that they are usually extremely hardheaded.

Secondly, on the internet, a place where you can voice just about anything with no possible social withdrawal or social anxiety--the known ignorance will probably always be worst than in a real-life scenario.

But, even when I try to start a conversation on global warming, or other topics, in the real world, it almost always ends in me face-palming myself at the sheer unintelligence of the common man or woman.
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In an effort to look for anything else in the Atlantic, the ECMWF is starting to show lowering in pressures in the SW Caribbean by 216 hours. This could very well be the start of possible SW Caribbean development and our next threat for serious mischief. Nothing significant yet, but it's always prudent to watch out for October mischief in the SW Caribbean especially in active years like this one.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


we will slam
once we are on the brink and left with no choice but to save ourselves
unless nature has a plan to save herself first


I hope so. I'm just afraid by the time we're on the brink and have no choice it will be too late.

Quoting Jedkins01:


Kind of like what happens when you listen to political news? Humanity as a whole is quite self destructive, but there is always hope. You just have to tune out the endless stream of info and do your part. While I too, get weighed down by it some. I can't save people from themselves, I can't cure famine and genocide, I can't stop deforestation and extinction. However, I can do my part to do the right thing, and so can you.


I'll keep doing my part, changing how I live, and dialing down use our planet's resources, mostly because that's the only ethical thing to do. Any other lifestyle just feels wrong knowing the real facts.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Great point Jed~ I've found the more I've done in my life to right this the more money I end up in my pocket. The investments made in efficient things in your life pay for themselves really fast & then start paying for other efficiencies. So much is from Big Ag farming too. A 10X10 organic plot a person saves thousands in food a year & the food is real, healthy & tastes like nothing you'll find in a grocery.



Exactly, what is interesting is that the longer lived, the more I've realized that a "high" takes the form of many things for people besides just drugs. All people can have a "high" that blinds them and binds them. What do I mean by that? Well, that would be any pattern in ones life that to them seems good but in reality is destructive and they can't see what it is doing to them. When we are stuck on a "high" we would rather let it bury us in because we have ingrained it into our pattern of thought and that's how we've always done things. That's the problem. People may know our culture is wasteful and needs to be changed renewed to be more efficient, and renewable, but many will refuse to change because they've always done otherwise, and they would rather stick to their old ways because getting out of a train of thought is very hard for people. We all need mentors and coaches to some degree, regardless of how much self control we might think we have.

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Quoting jonger1150:


.



come back in feb and we will compare to see if it looks like this

or maybe less



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
502. Skyepony (Mod)
Great point Jed~ I've found the more I've done in my life to right this the more money I end up in my pocket. The investments made in efficient things in your life pay for themselves really fast & then start paying for other efficiencies. So much is from Big Ag farming too. A 10X10 organic plot a person saves thousands in food a year & the food is real, healthy & tastes like nothing you'll find in a grocery.
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Quoting G8GT:
With all due respect, Dr. Masters, the ANTARCTIC ice is at record HIGH levels.

Please focus on the global issues, not just one hemisphere.

Ice lost in the Arctic is ice gained in the Antarctic.

Link

It's not as bad as all that.



Alright so arctic sea ice is rapidly deceasing while antarctic sea ice isn't.

Your point is???

How exactly, are those results a good thing? Lets say the antarctic never does heat up much. If we took a model of the earth, and heated up dramatically one half while cooled down the other half dramatically. How do you suppose those results are constructive for the future of the earth's climate? Or how do you begin to prove that such results mean natural climate change along and have nothing to do with human disruption of the ecosystem/atmosphere?
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499. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting G8GT:
With all due respect, Dr. Masters, the ANTARCTIC ice is at record HIGH levels.

Please focus on the global issues, not just one hemisphere.

Ice lost in the Arctic is ice gained in the Antarctic.

Link

It's not as bad as all that.


Did you read the second half of Dr Masters' entry?

The antarctic reach highest for that day but missed highest ever in recorded as well. It was 4% above normal that day while the Arctic was 49% below normal..

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Quoting Slamguitar:


I'm starting to think this is why we might not be able to turn back all of the damage we're doing to our planet's fragile systems. Not even for the sake of ourselves. Reading this crap all day has put me in a really depressed state.


Kind of like what happens when you listen to political news? Humanity as a whole is quite self destructive, but there is always hope. You just have to tune out the endless stream of info and do your part. While I too, get weighed down by it some. I can't save people from themselves, I can't cure famine and genocide, I can't stop deforestation and extinction. However, I can do my part to do the right thing, and so can you.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7305
497. Skyepony (Mod)
All the cold being concentrated at the glaciers left on Greenland & what's left of the sea ice, really shifted the polar high to there. Not so much wander this summer. Hope everyone enjoyed their summer.. cause that will most likely be something similar to the new norm..

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Looks like Nadine has become Extra-Tropical as the Eastern half of the storm is exposed with no convection.

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495. G8GT
With all due respect, Dr. Masters, the ANTARCTIC ice is at record HIGH levels.

Please focus on the global issues, not just one hemisphere.

Ice lost in the Arctic is ice gained in the Antarctic.

Link

It's not as bad as all that.
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The unwise argue solutions to the problems but miss the big picture, getting lost in the amount of information and knowledge they posses, only to reach no profitable conclusion. While the wise know the big picture, and therefore the reason for the problems. Sadly though, the wise are despised by traditional human thought which only temporarily finds solutions to problems. Because traditional human thought misses the big picture, it is overcome time and time again with destruction through the ages. It is the vicious cycle of humanity.
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Planetary commotion sets the whole world in motion.

That patch of fog over the Juan de Fuca sure looks like a block of atmospheric ice.
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Quoting Slamguitar:


I'm starting to think this is why we might not be able to turn back all of the damage we're doing to our planet's fragile systems. Not even for the sake of ourselves. Reading this crap all day has put me in a really depressed state.


we will slam
once we are on the brink and left with no choice but to save ourselves
unless nature has a plan to save herself first
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting TomTaylor:
I tell ya, the blog is in a sad state today, folks. It's been pretty upsetting reading some of the foolish and ignorant comments today.


I'm starting to think this is why we might not be able to turn back all of the damage we're doing to our planet's fragile systems. Not even for the sake of ourselves. Reading this crap all day has put me in a really depressed state.
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Quoting LBAR:


Of course I read it. The bottom line is that we don't understand climate at all. Heck, we can't even predict the intensity of a hurricane 48 hours out. All of the AGW people can scream that the sky is falling, or that that the attic is on fire or whatever, but there is no real proof one way or the other. These are the same people who most likely believe in survival of the fittest/evolution. I have every confidence mankind can adjust to whatever climate changes happen. If we can't...oh, well. It was a nice ride.
Really? We don't understand climate at all? We can't predict the intensity of a hurricane 48 hours out? The sky is falling? Someone said the arctic is on fire? Survival of the fittest is false? If we can solve a problem we should do nothing about it? This is news to me, thank you for your insightful post.

shesh

I tell ya, the blog is in a sad state today, folks. It's been pretty upsetting reading some of the foolish and ignorant comments today.
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Quoting spathy:Thats not for anyone to decide.


I just can't say enough about this ridiculous statement.

This is a democracy, it's for everyone to decide, or at least 50% plus 1 anyway.

90% of people would benefit immensely from raising taxes on the top 10%, 80% would benefit greatly by raising taxes on the top 20%, because those 20% have 80% of the wealth.

It's a mystery, come to think of it, why so few think this through. How is it that roughly half of our government is run by republicans at any given time, even though their policies only benefit 10% to 20% of people?
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Quoting spathy:


Where are you going to find the tax revenue to pay for more green energy that is going bankrupt. Going bankrupt with billions of tax payer funds?

@0 some coal plants are shutting down as I type.
Lost Jobs. Lost tax revenue.
More borrowed and printed money.

Where in your superior intellect does that lead?
More clean energy? NOT!
More taxable revenue? NOT!
A future reliable source of energy to warm Grandma this winter? NOT!

Get a grip. This is not sustainable.
And its even more unsustainable because of mandated green and over burdensome regulation.


Sorry but its fossil fuels that aren't sustainable. They are a finite resource. We are going to run out of them anyway in the next 100 years. And in the meantime they are going to get more and more expensive as demand increases from both the developed countries. and all the developing 3rd world countries. The only ones making money will be the fossil fuel companies as supply/demand crunches happen more frequently. Or doesn't anyone remember that the high gas prices were part of what pushed us into the recession as well as the problems on Wall Street? The global recession is what has temporarily brought them back down. So we need to switch to alternative fuels anyway. Why not be smart and start researching and investing in these alternatives now before these biggest supply/demand pinch points happen? And limit global warming effects at the same time? Why not be on the front end of the wave of innovation and at the same time buffer our economy from more of these supply/demand pinch points as well as consequences of global warming (unstable food supply, increased extreme weather events, and global political unstability)? 1/4 of Germany's electricity is now solar. If they can do it, why can't we? If diversity is good in finance why isn't it good in energy supply? I was in California during the rolling blackouts and electricity supply/demand pinches that cost the state and consumers megabucks as the price of electicity spiked quickly up to 5X - 20X pre-spike levels. So I have a very cynical view about all this anti-global warming talk. There are huge sums of money to be made by the fossil fuel industry the more delay there is in switching to alternative fuels as more and more of these supply/demand pinch points can be expected, prices will sky rocket, and guess who will be pocketing the money?
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487. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (T1217)
12:00 PM JST September 21 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Jelawat (996 hPa) located at 12.9N 130.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 12.5N 129.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 13.7N 128.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
69 HRS: 15.1N 128.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
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485. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL STORM LAWIN (JELAWAT)
11:00 AM PhST September 21 2012
==================================

Tropical Storm "LAWIN" Has slightly intensified and is now moving in a West Southwest direction

At 10:00 AM PhSt, Tropical Storm Lawin (1217/Jelawat) located at 13.1°N 130.6°E or 600 km east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Additional Information
=====================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm "LAWIN" is still far to directly affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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Some hysteria on the blog.

Edit: Somebody once said: "We have nothing to fear but fear itself."
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Quoting LBAR:


I completely agree with you. Their ultimate goal is full control of our lives.


Seriously? No one wants control of anyone's life. They want a safe and healthy place to live and raise children. Grow up.
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Quoting Skyepony:
The record Antarctic sea ice isn't looking all that impressive when put in context.


Looking at it closer as has been said..it's a record for that day, not an overall record even.



What they forgot to mention is the GLOBAL area and extent are each among their 3 lowest levels on record. moreover, we had at least several days earlier this year where GLOBAL record minimums were set for those days.

So their claim of "look, antarctica ice is growing" is pointless, since the Arctic is shrinking like 3 or 4 times faster, and the Global values are shrinking.



Notice how, for the past 50 days, the global values are at or near record lows, and almost always in the bottom 3 years.

What was happening earlier in March and April is to me potentially indicated of a climatological shift which is an "attempt" by the planet to produce a negative feedback mechanism in area (see below for explanation of this hypothesis*,) or it may have just been an natural "up year," but if 2012 was a natural up year, I'd hate to see what a natural down year looks like now, given the net loss of volume minimum.


* Reduction in sea ice area causes more water to be exposed to the atmosphere, increasing convection. This quickly cools the surface water, causing a THIN layer of ice to re-freezed, replacing said lost area. However, because core thickness and average thickness are hurt so much worse each year, a net loss from year to year is occurring.

This can be seen more clearly here:




Nobody should misunderstand this as an "increase" in ice during those months vs any prior year in the same month. If you cut thickness by 25%, but increase area by 10% you've still got a net loss in ice, and a big one, to be sure. Which is seen clearly during hte heart of the melt season, as the ice fell off by about 18% in volume compared to the same day last year.


I am so glad for Neven's site, because it's become like a hub for all the best information and graphics for understanding that information. It's one of the best scientific sites I've ever seen on the internet.

Recommend anyone who isn't already using it from time to time to give it a look.

Neven's "Arctic Sea Ice Blog"
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Quoting airmet3:


I think the question is how much is due to natural weather cycles and how much of it is man made.

That is laughable. Sorry, but it is.
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Quoting spathy:


+1000


Rome in its heyday wasn't a great place for the 99.99% Now if you were a bud of Nero's, that was different.
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what ever is to become of global warming
in the end there is one thing
that no one will be able to deny.


"we were warned".

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
I suppose when people start talking about orbital variances I will start pulling out "the chart". I've stretched out the horizontal axis but this one still has a bit too long of a time scale, so I am going to make one with a shorter time scale eventually. Note that for total insolation, eccentricity dominates. But it isn't so simple due to asymmetry of the distribution of the continents between the hemispheres.




Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
Quoting Levi32:
325. Are you really suggesting that the world should regulate families like China?

I'm pretty sure there are far better ways to cut CO2 than stripping freedoms from people.
CO2 is besides the point, Levi. We are overpopulated and our population is only growing. Our population growth will have to slow down and eventually stop, whether we like it or not. Either we find ways to reduce our population growth or nature will do the job for us. With the first option, we are punishing excess pregnancies, with the other, nature is killing the excess pregnancies. You decide, but the latter of the two is much uglier.
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Blog update for those still up.

I might do one for Jelawat tomorrow, or at least once the threat to land grows.
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Now I'm going to bed.

...NADINE STARTING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 20
Location: 35.4N 28.0W
Moving: ESE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 35.4N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 34.5N 27.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 33.2N 26.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 22/1200Z 32.5N 25.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 23/0000Z 32.4N 24.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 24/0000Z 32.4N 24.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/0000Z 32.4N 23.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 26/0000Z 32.4N 23.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
Tropical Storm NADINE
...NADINE STARTING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 20
Location: 35.4°N 28.0°W
Moving: ESE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 981 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

Public Advisory #39
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5998
94L and Nadine:

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TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN
INCREASING NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF NADINE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION...HOWEVER...IS LIKELY
RELATED TO BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES SINCE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
THE AZORES AND AN 2224 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE A FRONTAL ZONE
IMPINGING ON THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
EARLIER ASCAT DATA WHICH SHOWED SEVERAL 50 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND
BARBS NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE PRESUMABLY
RELATED TO AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE STORM.

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE TRACK OF NADINE MAY BE
VEERING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT A LONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 120/08. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NADINE WILL BE STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD AND SLOW DOWN
THROUGH 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THIS TIME...THERE REMAINS A LARGE
SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. AS IN THE LAST FEW RUNS...THE GFS
SHOWS MORE INTERACTION WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
NORTH OF THE STORM WHICH RESULTS IN NADINE MOVING MORE RAPIDLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF/UK MET HAVE A
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WITH LESS AMPLITUDE AND EITHER
KEEP NADINE MEANDERING OR MOVING MORE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
THAN THE GFS. SINCE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A STARK DICHOTOMY IN THE
GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ONLY A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST
IS DEPICTED DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NADINE ATTEMPTING TO OUTRUN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ENCROACHING ON IT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT THIS MAY BE
OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE CURRENT SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES.
THE TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW COULD NOW BE MORE
IMMINENT...AND POST-TROPICAL STATUS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR SOONER
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEN AGAIN...NADINE COULD TEMPORARILY
FIND ITSELF SECLUDED FROM THE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT...OVER
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS...AND IN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
DUE TO A STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE
APPEARANCE OF NADINE...THE LATTER POSSIBILITY IS TREATED AS A LOWER
PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 35.4N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 34.5N 27.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 33.2N 26.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 22/1200Z 32.5N 25.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 23/0000Z 32.4N 24.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 24/0000Z 32.4N 24.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/0000Z 32.4N 23.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 26/0000Z 32.4N 23.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31563
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012

...NADINE STARTING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.4N 28.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
467. LBAR
Quoting spathy:


I could almost care less of the debatable "warming is man made or not."

All I see with the path the green agenda is screaming for is ......
No solutions to warming without societal collapse as a result. And no easily accomplished clean practices being implemented.
So we are now warmer and dirtier. And broke to boot!


I completely agree with you. Their ultimate goal is full control of our lives.
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465. wxmod
Smoke blowing thousands of miles EAST from Idaho fires. MODIS

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464. chawk
For God sakes, please stop talking about how much more than "normal" CO2 we are producing without showing a ratio to how much is being absorbed and converted into Oxygen by all of the aditional corn and sugar cane plants the world is replacing trees with. If Global warming is man made, it is easily reversed without Government funding. There needs to be some balance on this blog just like there needs to be balance to how climate will be prepared for. Taking politics out of the science will go a long way in gaining the populations trust in doing the right thing. I am going to do my conservitive part and leave the water out of my next single malt and go to bed. Good Night!
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Quoting LBAR:


Of course I read it. The bottom line is that we don't understand climate at all. Heck, we can't even predict the intensity of a hurricane 48 hours out. All of the AGW people can scream that the sky is falling, or that that the attic is on fire or whatever, but there is no real proof one way or the other. These are the same people who most likely believe in survival of the fittest/evolution. I have every confidence mankind can adjust to whatever climate changes happen. If we can't...oh, well. It was a nice ride.
The point isn't that we can't adapt; whoever is predicting a doomsday end of the world armageddon scenario probably isn't worth taking seriously anyway.

And don't even get me started on evolution.
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Quoting spathy:


Balance our budget by balancing Gov and private sector.

In doing so, the wealth will grow.
In doing so, many more opportunities will exist for the thinking/ risk taking proffit motivated entrepreneurs. Those entrepreneurs will fill the need/desire for new technology that is cleaner .

And Our Gov will have the revenue needed to care for the truly needy. And disaster relief ,and war/security.

Its very simple and the best example the World has known exists within the history of a Constitutionally compliant United States of America.
If your underlying point is that an immediate move toward renewable energy isn't feasible, I don't think I disagree much. My point was that we simply cannot continue down this slippery slope while continually ignoring the evidence that is right in front of us. Letting our children handle the situation is not my idea of a good time.
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Quoting spathy:


Interesting.
Thank you.
Closing loopholes.
There is a proposal to close loopholes and reduce taxes.
Net gain of simplified taxes and same revenue/minus some tax preparers. (sorry)



Sane country deterrent.???
Would you call Iran a sane country?
Can you name any other countrys that arent sane?
I would think so.
Security is one of the things that is Constitutionally required.
Yet Military can be cut as well.
50% is insanely dangerous though.

Patents and tax laws should all be up for debate.


But you see what I'm talking about right?

The U.S. gave R&D grants to the companies, in some cases funded or helped fund the founder's, CEOs, and stock holders educations, issued the patents protecting their "rights" to their inventions and improvements, and made possible the infrastructure, which allowed those companies to exist, but now they want to hijack the system and not pay taxes.


And by the way, Facebook and Google are two of the biggest culprits in recent memory, with the core ideas and software of Facebook literally being developed on U.S. university property, and now 2 of the 3 founders have ex-patriated to avoid taxes.

What happens when the oil, coal, and electricity companies all expatriate and pay taxes to Switzerland?



Doesn't everyone feel insulted that companies with 90% of their business in the U.S. and was "born" in the U.S. pays zero federal taxes to the U.S. and now pays their taxes to Switzerland?

How offended would you be if they paid taxes to Iran or North Korea instead? You'd surely consider that treason, I bet.

Why isn't it treason for them to pay taxes to Switzerland?


Switzerland's got a great deal right now, don't they? They can do next to nothing, and still have a constant stream of money coming in from traitorous U.S. companies paying taxes to them. Of course they can keep their tax rates lower, if they are going to get "free" tax revenues from every U.S. company expatriating their "corporate headquarters" to them.


I swear, some things in the constitution, including the "Ex post facto" rule, patents, taxes, and at least 2 of the amendments in the Bill of Rights (2nd and part of the 4th,) need some serious consideration ASAP to fix many issues.

Well, you say, "Why the fourth amendment," because the tax code isn't actually enforceable under the present day interpretation of the amendment.

Why the second amendment? Look at any recent mass shooting.

Why patents? Several reasons, not the least of which is another way to enforce tax laws to close loopholes, but also because the U.S. patents were supposed to "promote useful arts and sciences," for the good of all people; not make a few individuals or corporations the lords over all of civilization, which is what the present day interpretation of patents does.

Why taxes? Because I'm sick of corporations with 50% profit margin paying zero taxes, or paying their taxes to another country.


I know, I know, this isn't weather related, directly, but in an indirect way it is, because all of this indirectly ties back into climate change, which effects weather.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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