Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on September 20, 2012

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The extraordinary decline in Arctic sea ice during 2012 is finally over. Sea ice extent bottomed out on September 16, announced scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) on Wednesday. The sea ice extent fell to 3.41 million square kilometers, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that this year's weather was cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during this year's minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the Contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean."


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice reached its minimum on September 16, 2012, and was at its lowest extent since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

When was the last time the Arctic was this ice-free?
We can be confident that the Arctic did not see the kind of melting observed in 2012 going back over a century, as we have detailed ice edge records from ships (Walsh and Chapman, 2001). It is very unlikely the Northwest Passage was open between 1497 and 1900, since this spanned a cold period in the northern latitudes known as "The Little Ice Age". Ships periodically attempted the Passage and were foiled during this period. Research by Kinnard et al. (2011) shows that the Arctic ice melt in the past few decades is unprecedented for at least the past 1,450 years. We may have to go back to at least 4,000 B.C. to find the last time so little summer ice was present in the Arctic. Funder and Kjaer (2007) found extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coast, which suggested the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in the summer for over 1,000 years between 6,000 - 8,500 years ago, when Earth's orbital variations brought more sunlight to the Arctic in summer than at present. Prior to that, the next likely time was during the last inter-glacial period, 120,000 years ago. Arctic temperatures then were 2 - 3°C higher than present-day temperatures, and sea levels were 4 - 6 meters higher.


Figure 2. Year-averaged and 3-month averaged Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent from Chapman and Walsh (2001), as updated by the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. I've updated their graph to include 2011 plus the first 9 months of 2012.


Figure 3. Late summer Arctic sea ice extent over the past 1,450 years reconstructed from proxy data by Kinnard et al.'s 2011 paper, Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years. The solid pink line is a smoothed 40-year average, and the light pink areas shows a 95% confidence interval.  Note that the modern observational data in this figure extend through 2008, though the extent is not as low as the current annual data due to the 40-year smoothing. More commentary on this graph is available at skepticalscience.com.

When will the Arctic be ice-free in summer?
So, when will Santa's Workshop need to be retrofitted with pontoons to avoid sinking to the bottom of the Arctic Ocean in summer? It's hard to say, since there is a large amount of natural variability in Arctic weather patterns. Day et al. (2012) found that 5 to 31% of the changes in Arctic sea ice could be due to natural causes. However, the sea ice at the summer minimum has been declining at a rate of 12% per decade, far in excess of the worst-case scenario predicted in the 2007 IPCC report. Forecasts of an ice-free Arctic range from 20 - 30 years from now to much sooner. Just this week, Dr. Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University predicted that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within four years. A study by Stroeve et al. (2012), using the updated models being run for the 2014 IPCC report, found that "a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the next few decades is a distinct possibility." Of the 21 models considered, 2022 was the earliest date that complete Arctic sea ice occurred in September.


Video 1. A powerful storm wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover in August 2012. This visualization shows the strength and direction of the winds and their impact on the ice: the red vectors represent the fastest winds, while blue vectors stand for slower winds. According to NSIDC, the storm sped up the loss of the thin ice that appears to have been already on the verge of melting completely.Video credit: NASA.

But Antarctic sea ice is growing!
It's a sure thing that when Arctic sea ice hits new record lows, global warming contrarians will attempt to draw attention away from the Arctic by talking about sea ice around Antarctica. A case in point is an article that appeared in Forbes on Wednesday by James Taylor. Mr. Taylor wrote, "Antarctic sea ice set another record this past week, with the most amount of ice ever recorded on day 256 of the calendar year (September 12 of this leap year)...Amusingly, page after page of Google News results for Antarctic sea ice record show links to news articles breathlessly spreading fear and warning of calamity because Arctic sea ice recently set a 33-year low. Sea ice around one pole is shrinking while sea ice around another pole is growing. This sure sounds like a global warming crisis to me."

This analysis is highly misleading, as it ignores the fact that Antarctica has actually been warming in recent years. In fact, the oceans surrounding Antarctica have warmed faster than the global trend, and there has been accelerated melting of ocean-terminating Antarctic glaciers in recent years as a result of warmer waters eating away the glaciers. There is great concern among scientists about the stability of two glaciers in West Antarctica (the Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers) due the increase in ocean temperatures. These glaciers may suffer rapid retreats that will contribute significantly to global sea level rise.

Despite the warming going on in Antarctica, there has been a modest long-term increase in Antarctic sea ice in recent decades. So, how can more sea ice form on warmer ocean waters? As explained in an excellent article at skepticalscience.com, the reasons are complex. One reason is that the Southern Ocean consists of a layer of cold water near the surface and a layer of warmer water below. Water from the warmer layer rises up to the surface, melting sea ice. However, as air temperatures warm, the amount of rain and snowfall also increases. This freshens the surface waters, leading to a surface layer less dense than the saltier, warmer water below. The layers become more stratified and mix less. Less heat is transported upwards from the deeper, warmer layer. Hence less sea ice is melted (Zhang 2007). As the planet continues to warm, climate models predict that the growth in Antarctic sea ice will reverse, as the waters become too warm to support so much sea ice.


Figure 4. Surface air temperature over the ice-covered areas of the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica (top), and sea ice extent, observed by satellite (bottom). Image credit: (Zhang 2007).

Commentary: Earth's attic is on fire
To me, seeing the record Arctic sea ice loss of 2012 is like discovering a growing fire burning in Earth's attic. It is an emergency that requires immediate urgent attention. If you remove an area of sea ice 43% the size of the Contiguous U.S. from the ocean, it is guaranteed to have a significant impact on weather and climate. The extra heat and moisture added to the atmosphere as a result of all that open water over the pole may already be altering jet stream patterns in fall and winter, bringing an increase in extreme weather events. This year's record sea ice loss also contributed to an unprecedented melting event in Greenland. Continued sea ice loss will further increase melting from Greenland, contributing to sea level rise and storm surge damages. Global warming doubters tell us to pay attention to Earth's basement--the Antarctic--pointing out (incorrectly) that there is no fire burning there. But shouldn't we be paying attention to the steadily growing fire in our attic? The house all of humanity lives on is on fire. The fire is certain to spread, since we've ignored it for too long. It is capable of becoming a raging fire that will burn down our house, crippling civilization, unless we take swift and urgent action to combat it.

References
Funder, S. and K.H. Kjaer, 2007, "A sea-ice free Arctic Ocean?", Geophys. Res. Abstr. 9 (2007), p. 07815.

Kinnard et al., 2011, "Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years".

Walsh, J.E and W.L.Chapman, 2001, "Twentieth-century sea ice variations from observational data", Annals of Glaciology, 33, Number 1, January 2001, pp. 444-448.

Related info
Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low. September 6, 2012 blog post
Wunderground's Sea Ice page

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

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Look guys I know we're desperate for a storm to form in the Atlantic so e can track it.But The wave near the Leeward islands?.Really?.
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Quoting sar2401:

If I'm not mistaken, the TCHP values were even higher earlier in the season, yet we saw Isaac and Ernesto as the only ones to even make hurricane status. The area remains relatively stable with considerable dry air, and the trades are still blowing. In addition, wind shear is increasing, and will continue to increase as we get more troughs coming down from the north. We certainly could see another homegrown storm but RI seems a bit over the top, given conditions.

Current TCHP in the Caribbean is much higher, and covers a much higher area, than any single day in any of the recent past seasons. It's borderline ridiculous.



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They are still flying missions to Ex Nadine.

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 22 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-126

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: GLOBAL HAWK MISSION WILL FLY AS
STATED IN TCPOD 12-125 EXCEPT TAKEOFF
TIME MOVED UP ONE HOUR TO 22/1700Z.
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Here is one of the better solutions I found on Eureqa for the decline of (five year running average) Arctic Sea Ice Volume.

Year 1 is 1988 (to avoid the freakiness of the earlier years).

X is the year, and Y is the volume in 1000cu km.

In order to make this more readable, I've alternated bolding individual terms.

Solution: "y = 15.64 -0.3485/(x^2)^(x - 1.341) - 0.2462*x - 0.007795*exp(0.2462*x)"

"R^2 Goodness of Fit": 0.99753366
"Correlation Coefficient": 0.99876607
"Maximum Error": 0.32981824
"Mean Squared Error": 0.018678792
"Mean Absolute Error": 0.10358505
Coefficients: 6
Complexity: 30
"Primary Objective" 0.10358505



the "exp(u)" function is rewritten as"

e^(u)
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Nadine leftovers?.... (still 55mph)



Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9780
Quoting Progster:


You don't think they took a volumetric approach in their calculation? Show me their math, please.


The fact that their curve is off by that much pretty well proves it.

All they did was extrapolate the "apparently linear" per-decade trend.

Take this extent graph (not picking on it's author).

Notice they plot a fit for a "linear" trend, and at the bottom they show a "linear" per decade decay rate with max and min deviations.



Yet it's obvious the data is not following a linear trend, so why bother with the misleading linear fit?

Why not at least fit an exponential curve or a quadratic curve to the data (or at least the 5 year running mean)? If you want to see the linear fit because it makes you feel warm and fuzzy, fine put it, but it needs to have the exponential trend overlay as well, just pick a different color line.



One of the things I found for analyzing data for volume, area, and extent is that averages longer than 7 years running were too "back heavy" to properly represent the real trend, but 5 year running average, for some portions of the data set, can be a little too small. The other thing is the past 6 years has two large inflections in the volume data, 2007 and 2008, but thankfully next year 2008 will rotate out of the 5 year average, so the trend in the 5 year running average will make more sense and resume it's exponential decay (assuming there is no rebound greater than or equal to 600km cu for next year).
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting indianrivguy:


well, you called yourself a "mature" woman, and expressed concern about manners or something like that the other day, I'm just paying attention. Where I am from, it is a term of respect and endearment and that is how I was applying it to you. peace.
LOL....So if I am a mature woman I am Grams??? I'll let it slide this time.BUT.. I do have 2 wonderful grandchildren... Thanks IRG.. Maybe we should have a drink at Captain Hiram's
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Welcome Fall!!!! Welcome US cold fronts down to the Caribbean....

Welcome the surfing season!!

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9780
Today Summer wants to give it's last hurrah!.Going to be 87 today with some humidity.Then on Sunday fall really starts with highs in the upper 60's to lower 70's with a wind chill affect thanks to the winds that'll be in place.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Looks like a surface low is forming up here.



If it continues to look like this in the next few hours,it may be mentioned at the 2 PM or 8 PM TWO.
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1448. DocBen
Quoting FatPenguin:


Wrong.

If you turn on the TV and hear there's a tornado warning for your neighborhood over the next 30 minutes, are you going to call them alarmists?

IT'S NO DIFFERENT, except for the timetable. Instead of 30 minutes, it's 30 years. Large portions of the globe are going to experience significant climate changes that will effect water supplies and agriculture.

Discussing this is not alarmist. IT'S COMMON SENSE.


Very well said. I can see the warnings now: "Interesting-looking cloud foamations are coming this way. It is fascinating to watch the funnel-shaped formations traveling along the ground as they rearrange the furniture in the homes they pick up. Residents of those homes are probably having a very thrilling ride."
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Oh no.I guess after that post I am now "officially old" But that might be a good thing. I am now allowed to give some of the "Silverback posters" crap without getting in trouble. Just maybe.


well, you called yourself a "mature" woman, and expressed concern about manners or something like that the other day, I'm just paying attention. Where I am from, it is a term of respect and endearment and that is how I was applying it to you. peace.
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Quoting indianrivguy:


Hang in there Grams, it's just the clouds... :)
Early 60's guy... Lot's of years ahead.I hope
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Quoting trumpman84:


This seems to really be grasping at straws here...skeptic or not. Even if this convoluted mess is true, why isn't the same thing happening in the arctic? How would you even test a hypothesis like this?

Also, the title of the article mentioning a "fire" in the arctic reeks of alarmism. People don't doubt climate science because of lack of evidence. They doubt it because of the irresposible way it is presented by people like Dr. Masters and other alarmists. I believe people and society in general are very skeptical of 'the sky is falling so give me your money' views.

If scientists got out of politics and advocacy and just got back to reporting facts, the general public would be a lot more trusting of them.

I mean, is a headline of "Arctic Sea Ice reaches a record low." not grabbing enough eye balls already?

Exactly.


Wrong.

If you turn on the TV and hear there's a tornado warning for your neighborhood over the next 30 minutes, are you going to call them alarmists?

IT'S NO DIFFERENT, except for the timetable. Instead of 30 minutes, it's 30 years. Large portions of the globe are going to experience significant climate changes that will effect water supplies and agriculture.

Discussing this is not alarmist. IT'S COMMON SENSE.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
1444. sar2401
Quoting wxchaser97:

I still think we will see a couple storms, including something in the Caribbean. The TCHP values are very high in the NW Caribbean so we could see some RI.

If I'm not mistaken, the TCHP values were even higher earlier in the season, yet we saw Isaac and Ernesto as the only ones to even make hurricane status. The area remains relatively stable with considerable dry air, and the trades are still blowing. In addition, wind shear is increasing, and will continue to increase as we get more troughs coming down from the north. We certainly could see another homegrown storm but RI seems a bit over the top, given conditions.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 14270
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Well then....lol

The equinox is today, regardlss of when you set fall to be on the calendar

I'm just saying ours started September 1
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting indianrivguy:


Hang in there Grams, it's just the clouds... :)
Oh no.I guess after that post I am now "officially old" But that might be a good thing. I am now allowed to give some of the "Silverback posters" crap without getting in trouble. Just maybe.
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Quoting sar2401:

It's a good effort, although I tend to agree that total rainfall is nearly impossible to predict in advance. The sad thing is that the NHC/NOAA does not want to incorporate anything but wind in the SS scale:

"In 2009, the NHC made moves to eliminate pressure and storm surge ranges from the categories, transforming it into a pure wind scale, called the Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (Experimental) [SSHWS]. The new scale became operational on May 15, 2010. The scale excludes flood ranges, storm surge estimations, rainfall, and location, which means a Category 2 hurricane which hits a major city will likely do far more cumulative damage than a Category 5 hurricane that hits a rural area. The agency cited various hurricanes as reasons for removing the "scientifically inaccurate" information, including Hurricane Katrina (2005) and Hurricane Ike (2008), which both had stronger than estimated storm surges, and Hurricane Charley (2004), which had weaker than estimated storm surge."

Link

It is sad and wind and surge are the 2 biggest impacts, not just wind.
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http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/ 2012/09/22/fox-news-distorts-climate-science/


Fox News Distorts Climate Science; in Other News, the Pope Is Catholic

By Philip Yam September 22, 2012

For anyone with an interest in journalism, it's no surprise that Fox News Channel and the opinion pages of The Wall Street Journal lean well to the right. Editorially, these two jewels of Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. have a long history of denying human-induced global warming, in keeping with certain ideological interests.

New data support the anecdotes and conventional wisdom. At a midday panel on September 21 in New York City's Science, Industry and Business Library, the Union of Concerned Scientists released results of an analysis quantifying the media outlets distortions of climate science.

...

Rather than surprising, the results might be more of a disappointment - to Rupert Murdoch himself. Murdoch acknowledged in 2007 the reality of anthropogenic climate change and pledged that his company's operations would become carbon-neutral - a goal achieved in 2011. Still, as the UCS data indicate, many of News Corp.'s most influential and powerful employees continue to perpetuate climate denialism.


Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6004
Quoting AussieStorm:


It's been Spring here for 23days now, we started at the start of September.


Well then....lol

The equinox is today, regardless of when you set fall to be on the calendar
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9724
Good Saturday Morning everyone.

The GFS is hyper with development in the long range both Atlantic and EPAC:



Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
AUTUMN 2012 HAS BEGUN!!!!!







It's been Spring here for 23days now, we started at the start of September.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting indianrivguy:


Hang in there Grams, it's just the clouds... :)
The clouds are crying.....Very hard
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Looks like a surface low is forming up here.

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Its Officially Autumn now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D
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It is officially autumn everyone!

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AUTUMN 2012 HAS BEGUN!!!!!




Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9724
1430. sar2401
Quoting wxchaser97:

I've been making/tweaking this for a couple days.

It's a good effort, although I tend to agree that total rainfall is nearly impossible to predict in advance. The sad thing is that the NHC/NOAA does not want to incorporate anything but wind in the SS scale:

"In 2009, the NHC made moves to eliminate pressure and storm surge ranges from the categories, transforming it into a pure wind scale, called the Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (Experimental) [SSHWS]. The new scale became operational on May 15, 2010. The scale excludes flood ranges, storm surge estimations, rainfall, and location, which means a Category 2 hurricane which hits a major city will likely do far more cumulative damage than a Category 5 hurricane that hits a rural area. The agency cited various hurricanes as reasons for removing the "scientifically inaccurate" information, including Hurricane Katrina (2005) and Hurricane Ike (2008), which both had stronger than estimated storm surges, and Hurricane Charley (2004), which had weaker than estimated storm surge."

Link
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 14270
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Still getting darker.I might need a hug


Hang in there Grams, it's just the clouds... :)
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1428. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


So you're back...My plan didn't work...I'll get you my pretty, and your little blobs too!!!


And Toto, too!
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Quoting Grothar:


Chester came before Festus.
Never liked Chester..Too whiny
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1426. Grothar
Quoting sar2401:

LOL. Glad to see you this morning, Gro.


Thanks, I'm glad when I see myself in the morning, too.
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1425. Grothar
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Wasn't Fester on Gunsmoke.. No ,wait, It may have been Festus


Chester came before Festus.
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...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM...
8:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 22
Location: 13.9°N 107.7°W
Moving: WNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

2. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
AND IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. REGENERATION OF
THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS
IT MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.
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Quoting Grothar:


Very dark in Broward, too. Looks like dusk.
Too stormy to go to Whale's Rib in Deerfield for some yummy rock shrimp today
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Geoff said; .I'll get you my pretty, and your little blobs too!!!

I laughed out loud.

Mornin' Grothar!
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1421. mati
Quoting goosegirl1:


I mean this respectfully- read the first sentance. CO2 is having an effect on sea ice in Antarctica, just not the same effect as in the Arctic. One explanation for the difference is that the Arctic is a frozen ocean, while the Antarctic is a frozen land mass surrounded by ocean.


The other point is that Antartica is also very high compared to the Arctic, with mountains up to 15000 feet, and the large central Antarctic plateau at 9000 feet.

Link
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TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH AN AREA OF COLD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER AND A
LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ALL SUPPORT NAMING THE
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT.
MIRIAM IS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM WATERS...SO
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WHILE THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF AN INNER-CORE STRUCTURE THAT WOULD
SUGGEST RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS IMMINENT...THAT IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IF AN INNER CORE CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE
NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...SHOWING MIRIAM BECOMING A HURRICANE BY
36 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
INCREASES. THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS SLOWER WEAKENING BY DAY 5 AS
MIRIAM SHOULD JUST BE NEARING THE 26C ISOTHERM AT THAT TIME.

THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
WHILE IT ORGANIZES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN 285/04. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...
AS MIRIAM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THROUGH 48 HOURS THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE
TO THE NORTH WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED...AND THE NHC TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE TVCE
CONSENSUS. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND INDUCE A MORE
POLEWARD MOTION. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOWING A NORTHWARD
MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET TURN MIRIAM WESTWARD. LATE IN THE
PERIOD THE NHC TRACK SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT OF THE TVCE CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 13.9N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 14.4N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 15.4N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 16.5N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 17.5N 113.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 19.0N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 21.0N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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TS Miriam:

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Quoting Grothar:


Very dark in Broward, too. Looks like dusk.
Or early dawn.LOL
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Quoting mati:


Nestor somehow brings back memories of the Adam's Family

Lol, Nestor is just one of those names.
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1416. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


Well, don't fester about it all day.

LOL. Glad to see you this morning, Gro.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 14270
Quoting Grothar:
WARNING: This animation contains no audio.




So you're back...My plan didn't work...I'll get you my pretty, and your little blobs too!!!
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Quoting Grothar:


Well, don't fester about it all day.
Wasn't Fester on Gunsmoke.. No ,wait, It may have been Festus
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1413. Grothar
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Still getting darker.I might need a hug


Very dark in Broward, too. Looks like dusk.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 107.7W
ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I've been making/tweaking this for a couple days.
You can't make a rainfall scale based on intensity... A tropical depression can dump more rain than a category five depending on the conditions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

I've been making/tweaking this for a couple days.
wxchaser..Great job... I can appreciate your hard work. I like it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

I've been making/tweaking this for a couple days.

I wasn't on here last night when you unveiled it to comment on it but I really like it. There's clearly a lot more that goes into a storm's potential effects than wind like the SSHS uses.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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