Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on September 20, 2012

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The extraordinary decline in Arctic sea ice during 2012 is finally over. Sea ice extent bottomed out on September 16, announced scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) on Wednesday. The sea ice extent fell to 3.41 million square kilometers, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that this year's weather was cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during this year's minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the Contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean."


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice reached its minimum on September 16, 2012, and was at its lowest extent since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

When was the last time the Arctic was this ice-free?
We can be confident that the Arctic did not see the kind of melting observed in 2012 going back over a century, as we have detailed ice edge records from ships (Walsh and Chapman, 2001). It is very unlikely the Northwest Passage was open between 1497 and 1900, since this spanned a cold period in the northern latitudes known as "The Little Ice Age". Ships periodically attempted the Passage and were foiled during this period. Research by Kinnard et al. (2011) shows that the Arctic ice melt in the past few decades is unprecedented for at least the past 1,450 years. We may have to go back to at least 4,000 B.C. to find the last time so little summer ice was present in the Arctic. Funder and Kjaer (2007) found extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coast, which suggested the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in the summer for over 1,000 years between 6,000 - 8,500 years ago, when Earth's orbital variations brought more sunlight to the Arctic in summer than at present. Prior to that, the next likely time was during the last inter-glacial period, 120,000 years ago. Arctic temperatures then were 2 - 3°C higher than present-day temperatures, and sea levels were 4 - 6 meters higher.


Figure 2. Year-averaged and 3-month averaged Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent from Chapman and Walsh (2001), as updated by the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. I've updated their graph to include 2011 plus the first 9 months of 2012.


Figure 3. Late summer Arctic sea ice extent over the past 1,450 years reconstructed from proxy data by Kinnard et al.'s 2011 paper, Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years. The solid pink line is a smoothed 40-year average, and the light pink areas shows a 95% confidence interval.  Note that the modern observational data in this figure extend through 2008, though the extent is not as low as the current annual data due to the 40-year smoothing. More commentary on this graph is available at skepticalscience.com.

When will the Arctic be ice-free in summer?
So, when will Santa's Workshop need to be retrofitted with pontoons to avoid sinking to the bottom of the Arctic Ocean in summer? It's hard to say, since there is a large amount of natural variability in Arctic weather patterns. Day et al. (2012) found that 5 to 31% of the changes in Arctic sea ice could be due to natural causes. However, the sea ice at the summer minimum has been declining at a rate of 12% per decade, far in excess of the worst-case scenario predicted in the 2007 IPCC report. Forecasts of an ice-free Arctic range from 20 - 30 years from now to much sooner. Just this week, Dr. Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University predicted that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within four years. A study by Stroeve et al. (2012), using the updated models being run for the 2014 IPCC report, found that "a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the next few decades is a distinct possibility." Of the 21 models considered, 2022 was the earliest date that complete Arctic sea ice occurred in September.


Video 1. A powerful storm wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover in August 2012. This visualization shows the strength and direction of the winds and their impact on the ice: the red vectors represent the fastest winds, while blue vectors stand for slower winds. According to NSIDC, the storm sped up the loss of the thin ice that appears to have been already on the verge of melting completely.Video credit: NASA.

But Antarctic sea ice is growing!
It's a sure thing that when Arctic sea ice hits new record lows, global warming contrarians will attempt to draw attention away from the Arctic by talking about sea ice around Antarctica. A case in point is an article that appeared in Forbes on Wednesday by James Taylor. Mr. Taylor wrote, "Antarctic sea ice set another record this past week, with the most amount of ice ever recorded on day 256 of the calendar year (September 12 of this leap year)...Amusingly, page after page of Google News results for Antarctic sea ice record show links to news articles breathlessly spreading fear and warning of calamity because Arctic sea ice recently set a 33-year low. Sea ice around one pole is shrinking while sea ice around another pole is growing. This sure sounds like a global warming crisis to me."

This analysis is highly misleading, as it ignores the fact that Antarctica has actually been warming in recent years. In fact, the oceans surrounding Antarctica have warmed faster than the global trend, and there has been accelerated melting of ocean-terminating Antarctic glaciers in recent years as a result of warmer waters eating away the glaciers. There is great concern among scientists about the stability of two glaciers in West Antarctica (the Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers) due the increase in ocean temperatures. These glaciers may suffer rapid retreats that will contribute significantly to global sea level rise.

Despite the warming going on in Antarctica, there has been a modest long-term increase in Antarctic sea ice in recent decades. So, how can more sea ice form on warmer ocean waters? As explained in an excellent article at skepticalscience.com, the reasons are complex. One reason is that the Southern Ocean consists of a layer of cold water near the surface and a layer of warmer water below. Water from the warmer layer rises up to the surface, melting sea ice. However, as air temperatures warm, the amount of rain and snowfall also increases. This freshens the surface waters, leading to a surface layer less dense than the saltier, warmer water below. The layers become more stratified and mix less. Less heat is transported upwards from the deeper, warmer layer. Hence less sea ice is melted (Zhang 2007). As the planet continues to warm, climate models predict that the growth in Antarctic sea ice will reverse, as the waters become too warm to support so much sea ice.


Figure 4. Surface air temperature over the ice-covered areas of the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica (top), and sea ice extent, observed by satellite (bottom). Image credit: (Zhang 2007).

Commentary: Earth's attic is on fire
To me, seeing the record Arctic sea ice loss of 2012 is like discovering a growing fire burning in Earth's attic. It is an emergency that requires immediate urgent attention. If you remove an area of sea ice 43% the size of the Contiguous U.S. from the ocean, it is guaranteed to have a significant impact on weather and climate. The extra heat and moisture added to the atmosphere as a result of all that open water over the pole may already be altering jet stream patterns in fall and winter, bringing an increase in extreme weather events. This year's record sea ice loss also contributed to an unprecedented melting event in Greenland. Continued sea ice loss will further increase melting from Greenland, contributing to sea level rise and storm surge damages. Global warming doubters tell us to pay attention to Earth's basement--the Antarctic--pointing out (incorrectly) that there is no fire burning there. But shouldn't we be paying attention to the steadily growing fire in our attic? The house all of humanity lives on is on fire. The fire is certain to spread, since we've ignored it for too long. It is capable of becoming a raging fire that will burn down our house, crippling civilization, unless we take swift and urgent action to combat it.

References
Funder, S. and K.H. Kjaer, 2007, "A sea-ice free Arctic Ocean?", Geophys. Res. Abstr. 9 (2007), p. 07815.

Kinnard et al., 2011, "Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years".

Walsh, J.E and W.L.Chapman, 2001, "Twentieth-century sea ice variations from observational data", Annals of Glaciology, 33, Number 1, January 2001, pp. 444-448.

Related info
Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low. September 6, 2012 blog post
Wunderground's Sea Ice page

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

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Quoting RTSplayer:
Anyway, one of the best ways to stop FUTURE CO2 production would be if mid-eastern and African women stopped having 8 children per woman, and decreased to a more reasonable 2.5. That would cut out around 60% of the net population growth over the next 2 decades compared to projections of present day trends.

Seriously, that's actually the easiest and most efficient thing that can be done.

Maybe we need an international law forbidding reproduction beyond 3 surviving children per woman. This would reduce world population to 8 billion by the mid 2030's, instead of 9 billion it would be on the present day trend, cutting net CO2 production by about 12.5%...




RT, love ya BUT the women of the mid-east and Africa have no say in their pregnancies. Actually instead of cutting funding, the vas deferens should be cut.
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hey guys look at this the TCHP are screaming high

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Quoting clamshell:


This might be the time for you to admit that you too are a denialist.

You deny that there is not anyway on earth that your views could be on the wrong side of the truth. Just like you accuse the supposed denialists of doing.

Isn't that being a hypocrite?

What sort of web sites do you manage? Fairytale sites? (Nothing wrong with those sites...I have grandkids, those sites serve a purpose) Denying that there is no big money funding associated with the AGW crowd is just as fairytale-ish as any suggestion that there is no big money associated with the other side.

Whichever side you are on, the one big fact to remember is...its all about the money for both sides.




Simply because there is a consensus among climate scientists (who have their entire careers devoted to looking at the Earth's climate) that the global warming is primarily due to anthropogenic emissions. I'm not sure who is supposed to have a better understanding of the climate than these people, so I don't know how people can have alternative explanations that ignore what these scientists have found.

I think Neapolitan was meaning that the fossil fuel companies obviously want us to continue to use fossil fuels as long as they have reserves so they don't lose alot of money, and obviously fossil fuels will be unpopular as they are associated with a changing climate. I don't know too much about the AGW movement (I'm not american) so I can't really comment on that. However, as long as the funding doesn't have a bias that affects what we are finding scientifically then there shouldn't be a problem.
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also FIM9 also shows broad monsoonal low in the SW caribbean at 210 hours

FIM7 had also got the broad monsoonal low at 168 hours
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Yesterday, I noticed some strong cells over Florida, and they were getting their tops pulled off towards the NE, that shear map Grothar posted explains that.
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Quoting LargoFl:
artic ice is melting yet antartica's ice is BUILDING.....


Comparing Antarctic and Arctic ice is sort of like comparing A biplane to a 747.

The only thing they share in common is ice. The weather and climate dynamics are completely different and have completely different effects.

Arctic ice is what helps regulate our weather patterns in the northern hemisphere. It is not land locked, and when it is gone you significantly increase norther albedo, resulting in a larger increase of absorbed energy. This is having and will continue to have growing impacts on the northern hemisphere.

Antarctic sea ice melts out every year. The amount of sea ice in the antarctic has almost no impact on the planet's energy budget as the ice vanishes in the southern hemisphere every summer. There is no drastic increase or decrease in overall albedo in the southern hemisphere as the Antarctic ice is behaving as it always does.

No ice in the northern hemisphere during peak insolation is a Bad Thing(tm). More ice in the Antarctic during minimum insolation in't really a factor. However, the warm water erosion that Dr. M mentioned is an issue.
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Following up on Grothar: with the Everglades extremely wet this year, any potential storm tracking E or NE across south Florida would likely hit the east coast with unreduced intensity, Wilma-like.
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601. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TROPICAL STORM LAWIN (JELAWAT)
5:00 PM PhST September 21 2012
==================================

Tropical Storm "LAWIN" gains strength as it moves slowly in a west southwest direction

At 4:00 PM PhSt, Tropical Storm Lawin (1217/Jelawat) located at 12.5°N 130.4°E or 560 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #1
------------------

Visayas Region
==============

1. Eastern Samar

Additional Information
=====================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 600 km diameter of the tropical storm.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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600. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (T1217)
21:00 PM JST September 21 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Jelawat (990 hPa) located at 12.6N 130.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 12.6N 129.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 14.0N 128.6E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 15.5N 127.8E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Last I heard we were actually in a solar minimum.
Quoting TomTaylor:
CO2 is besides the point, Levi. We are overpopulated and our population is only growing. Our population growth will have to slow down and eventually stop, whether we like it or not. Either we find ways to reduce our population growth or nature will do the job for us. With the first option, we are punishing excess pregnancies, with the other, nature is killing the excess pregnancies. You decide, but the latter of the two is much uglier.


How are we over-populated. There is plenty of space for this world's population. The issue is the population density in certain cities... We nee to spread out the population, not KILL it off...
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Quoting Neapolitan:
That site is a well-known denialist one started by a retired meteorologist (note: not a climate scientist), and staffed by fake skeptics, many of them funded by fossil fuel interests. IOW, it's not a place to go to find out "what is really going on with the polar ice"; it's a place to go to find out what sort of non-scientific garbage is being spewed.

One can't help but wonder: with all the honest, good, credible, and objective science websites there are, why do some insist on visiting only those that support their contrarian point of view. Doesn't that seem like confirmation bias at it's worst?


This might be the time for you to admit that you too are a denialist.

You deny that there is not anyway on earth that your views could be on the wrong side of the truth. Just like you accuse the supposed denialists of doing.

Isn't that being a hypocrite?

Makes me wonder what sort of web sites you manage. Fairytale sites? (Nothing wrong with those sites...I have grandkids, those sites serve a purpose) Denying that there is no big money funding associated with the AGW crowd is just as fairytale-ish as any suggestion that there is no big money associated with the other side.

Whichever side you are on, the one big fact to remember is...its all about the money for both sides.


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597. beell
Not much shakin' in the Caribbean on this chart for now.

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Quoting Grothar:






Very high shear in the Western Caribbean



look again wind shear is high in the GOM not the NW caribbean however the shear starts to increase in the very extreme NW NW Caribbean on the yucatan pennusula
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Forecast for Jelawat is a bit worrying for those in the Philippines

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hey guys to add to them models the NOAA's FIM models predicts a very broad and strong monsoonal low to start to develop in 204 hours
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JTWC update:

1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 12.4N 129.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 129.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 12.2N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.3N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 12.6N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 13.3N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.5N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.1N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.2N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 129.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 211200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND
221500Z.
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Have to go myself. Will check in later
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Got to go for a while. I want to see some action on the blog when I get back.
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Quoting Grothar:


Let us know if there is a wind shift.


Will do. About 3 MPH out of the N for now.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning.

Quite a light show here for most of the night with thunder rattling the windows. About .6 of an inch of rain since midnight and very dark outside. Winds are light out of the N and pressure of 1012.5 mbs and rising.

Nothing going on at the moment other than thundershowers.


Let us know if there is a wind shift.
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Very high shear in the Western Caribbean

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Quoting Grothar:
Blob alert


Quoting Grothar:
Blob alert




Good morning.

Quite a light show here for most of the night with thunder rattling the windows. About .6 of an inch of rain since midnight and very dark outside. Winds are light out of the N and pressure of 1012.5 mbs and rising.

Nothing going on at the moment other than thundershowers.
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Quoting allancalderini:
94L is still there it could organize and get the name Oscar.
It's moving into unfavorable conditions with cooler waters.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17151
Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like Oscar doesn't wanna be a weak storm and continue the trend of strong male names.Told ya'll so :).So if Oscar forms in the caribbean is it a chance it becomes a hurricane?.We shall see.Especially since instability has been so low.
94L is still there it could organize and get the name Oscar.
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hey guys
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Quoting indianrivguy:
I was scrolling down and wondering where the blob/reblob alert was this am. Mornin' Grothar, gang!

I think crayons are next.. but I'm not the first to say that... :')


Morning guy!

That's why I always look at the western Caribbean.

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I was scrolling down and wondering where the blob/reblob alert was this am. Mornin' Grothar, gang!

I think crayons are next.. but I'm not the first to say that... :')
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like Oscar doesn't wanna be a weak storm and continue the trend of strong male names.Told ya'll so :).So if Oscar forms in the caribbean is it a chance it becomes a hurricane?.We shall see.Especially since instability has been so low.

There is a chance, remember Rina from last year. Something like that could happen if a storm forms there.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
Looks like Oscar doesn't wanna be a weak storm and continue the trend of strong male names.Told ya'll so :).So if Oscar forms in the caribbean is it a chance it becomes a hurricane?.We shall see.Especially since instability has been so low.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17151
Well I have to go to school, bye everyone. I'm starting to lose confidence in 94L developing.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
Quoting txhurtrkr:
Please take a few minutes to read what is really going on with polar ice. Enough with the gloom and doom already. icecap.us/images/uploads
That site is a well-known denialist one started by a retired meteorologist (note: not a climate scientist), and staffed by fake skeptics, many of them funded by fossil fuel interests. IOW, it's not a place to go to find out "what is really going on with the polar ice"; it's a place to go to find out what sort of non-scientific garbage is being spewed.

One can't help but wonder: with all the honest, good, credible, and objective science websites there are, why do some insist on visiting only those that support their contrarian point of view. Doesn't that seem like confirmation bias at it's worst?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13579
TAWX was wrong. Didn't snow here or at Fort Frances last night. There was only one tiny little band of rain that came when it was still 5C, when it dropped down to 0C it was just cloudy.

Never trust someone from the south to forecast snow. :P
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Blob alert


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TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N84W TO 23N82W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE WAVE HAS MOVED INTO CLOSER
PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
HAS INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
AND PORTIONS OF THE THE SE GULF OF MEXICO PER TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT AND GLOBAL
MODEL DATA INDICATES A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH ALONG 84W ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-23N
BETWEEN 78W-86W. no development just more rain
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Surface pressures in the West Caribbean are lowering and shower and thunderstorm activity is increasing. This trend is likely to continue for the next week to two as high pressure builds over the East United States, promoting surface convergence in the region. In addition, the MJO is on its way back to Octants 7, 8, and 1 by the start of October.

We will probably get something out of it eventually.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
Polar shift?
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Quoting txhurtrkr:
Please take a few minutes to read what is really going on with polar ice. Enough with the gloom and doom already. icecap.us/images/uploads


I love how this website uses the skate submarine image surfacing in the Arctic in 1958, even though it was nowhere near the North Pole as the ice was actually too thick to break through then.... and there is an image of them breaking through the ice a year later at the North Pole a year later that no-one hardly mentions


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Quoting Neapolitan:
I understand you were generalizing, and you even stated there are "more camps". But I think you omitted one huge category that likely includes nearly every climate scientist. I'll call it 1.5: People who believe that humans are responsible for most of the climate changes going on, but who also acknowledge that natural variability always has--and always will--play a part.

Among credible (that is, educated, degreed, experienced, published, and currently practicing) climate scientists, there really is no debate at all about the cause of the observed warming. Certainly there are varying degrees of attribution, but those degrees are relatively small; in the main, there is solid agreement on the three basics:

1) The global climate is changing rapidly.
2) That change is due primarily to increasing CO2.
3) That CO2 is from us.


I said something similar in reply to that comment as well - I don't think anyone believes that anthropogenic forcing is the ONLY cause of warming, but it is the reason why the rise has been so unprecedented.

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Quoting islander101010:
florida could be in for some flooding rains these next few weeks


Travelling to Florida two weeks on Monday. Your statement is a bit worrying as we had the same this time last year. Think it was around 7th - 8th October maybe 15" of rain.

Can you explain whats behind your comment. Thanks in advance.
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Quoting Cat5hit:


First, I think we have to differentiate some things. You have several camps of people.

1. People that believe in human induced, global warming. And that is the ONLY reason the Earth is now warming.

2. People that believe humans are partially responsible for global warming, but also believe that there are some natural variances at work.

3. People that believe the Earth is warming and that humans are not responsible at all (or very little).

4. People that do not believe the Earth is warming.

5. People that believe the Earth is cooling.

6. People that believe this is all normal.
--
I am sure there are more camps you could place people in as I am generalizing.

Here is my point, for me it is hard to debate that OVERALL the Earth is warming. I bet most of us on the blog are in the top 3 categories. Even if you only look at the geologically insignificant time humans have been on the Earth and have measurements, it is hotter than it was over an average period of time. Doc Masters posts many graphs to attesting to this on his blogs. I have seen them in peer reviewed journals and I believe them to be accurate.

The CAUSE and CURE of this warming, is the most debated part of this.
--
I don't like that part about the oceans being 12- 18 feet higher when the Arctic was ice free in the summer, that means my city and many of other cities will be under water -or- at least in a situation like NOLA, where you look UP to the water, rather than down.
I understand you were generalizing, and you even stated there are "more camps". But I think you omitted one huge category that likely includes nearly every climate scientist. I'll call it 1.5: People who believe that humans are responsible for most of the climate changes going on, but who also acknowledge that natural variability always has--and always will--play a part.

Among credible (that is, educated, degreed, experienced, published, and currently practicing) climate scientists, there really is no debate at all about the cause of the observed warming. Certainly there are varying degrees of attribution, but those degrees are relatively small; in the main, there is solid agreement on the three basics:

1) The global climate is changing rapidly.
2) That change is due primarily to increasing CO2.
3) That CO2 is from us.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13579
94L is now at 50%, could still be some development.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
Time is running out for 94L. I think Oscar will not form from this but instead it will be a Western Caribbean system sometime in October.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14410
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
TODAY BEFORE THE LOW ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH OF THE AZORES.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
TODAY BEFORE THE LOW ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32338
Quoting kwgirl:
I was looking for a short staycation in Florida during the Holidays. Do you know the dates they decorate? Are they ready right after Thanksgiving?


They keep the decorations up for the entire month of December. Here's a link to the web site. I'm sure if you contact them they can give you more information.

Enjoy! http://www.edisonfordwinterestates.org/
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Please take a few minutes to read what is really going on with polar ice. Enough with the gloom and doom already. icecap.us/images/uploads
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Quoting Cat5hit:


First, I think we have to differentiate some things. You have several camps of people.

1. People that believe in human induced, global warming. And that is the ONLY reason the Earth is now warming.

2. People that believe humans are partially responsible for global warming, but also believe that there are some natural variances at work.

3. People that believe the Earth is warming and that humans are not responsible at all (or very little).

4. People that do not believe the Earth is warming.

5. People that believe the Earth is cooling.

6. People that believe this is all normal.
--
I am sure there are more camps you could place people in as I am generalizing.

Here is my point, for me it is hard to debate that OVERALL the Earth is warming. I bet most of us on the blog are in the top 3 categories. Even if you only look at the geologically insignificant time humans have been on the Earth and have measurements, it is hotter than it was over an average period of time. Doc Masters posts many graphs to attesting to this on his blogs. I have seen them in peer reviewed journals and I believe them to be accurate.

The CAUSE and CURE of this warming, is the most debated part of this.
--
I don't like that part about the oceans being 12- 18 feet higher when the Arctic was ice free in the summer, that means my city and many of other cities will be under water -or- at least in a situation like NOLA, where you look UP to the water, rather than down.
Living in south Texas I can vouch that it is getting warmer,the last 10 years have been horrible.With that said,global warming man made?or a cycle.?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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