Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on September 20, 2012

Share this Blog
67
+

The extraordinary decline in Arctic sea ice during 2012 is finally over. Sea ice extent bottomed out on September 16, announced scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) on Wednesday. The sea ice extent fell to 3.41 million square kilometers, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that this year's weather was cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during this year's minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the Contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean."


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice reached its minimum on September 16, 2012, and was at its lowest extent since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

When was the last time the Arctic was this ice-free?
We can be confident that the Arctic did not see the kind of melting observed in 2012 going back over a century, as we have detailed ice edge records from ships (Walsh and Chapman, 2001). It is very unlikely the Northwest Passage was open between 1497 and 1900, since this spanned a cold period in the northern latitudes known as "The Little Ice Age". Ships periodically attempted the Passage and were foiled during this period. Research by Kinnard et al. (2011) shows that the Arctic ice melt in the past few decades is unprecedented for at least the past 1,450 years. We may have to go back to at least 4,000 B.C. to find the last time so little summer ice was present in the Arctic. Funder and Kjaer (2007) found extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coast, which suggested the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in the summer for over 1,000 years between 6,000 - 8,500 years ago, when Earth's orbital variations brought more sunlight to the Arctic in summer than at present. Prior to that, the next likely time was during the last inter-glacial period, 120,000 years ago. Arctic temperatures then were 2 - 3°C higher than present-day temperatures, and sea levels were 4 - 6 meters higher.


Figure 2. Year-averaged and 3-month averaged Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent from Chapman and Walsh (2001), as updated by the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. I've updated their graph to include 2011 plus the first 9 months of 2012.


Figure 3. Late summer Arctic sea ice extent over the past 1,450 years reconstructed from proxy data by Kinnard et al.'s 2011 paper, Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years. The solid pink line is a smoothed 40-year average, and the light pink areas shows a 95% confidence interval.  Note that the modern observational data in this figure extend through 2008, though the extent is not as low as the current annual data due to the 40-year smoothing. More commentary on this graph is available at skepticalscience.com.

When will the Arctic be ice-free in summer?
So, when will Santa's Workshop need to be retrofitted with pontoons to avoid sinking to the bottom of the Arctic Ocean in summer? It's hard to say, since there is a large amount of natural variability in Arctic weather patterns. Day et al. (2012) found that 5 to 31% of the changes in Arctic sea ice could be due to natural causes. However, the sea ice at the summer minimum has been declining at a rate of 12% per decade, far in excess of the worst-case scenario predicted in the 2007 IPCC report. Forecasts of an ice-free Arctic range from 20 - 30 years from now to much sooner. Just this week, Dr. Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University predicted that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within four years. A study by Stroeve et al. (2012), using the updated models being run for the 2014 IPCC report, found that "a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the next few decades is a distinct possibility." Of the 21 models considered, 2022 was the earliest date that complete Arctic sea ice occurred in September.


Video 1. A powerful storm wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover in August 2012. This visualization shows the strength and direction of the winds and their impact on the ice: the red vectors represent the fastest winds, while blue vectors stand for slower winds. According to NSIDC, the storm sped up the loss of the thin ice that appears to have been already on the verge of melting completely.Video credit: NASA.

But Antarctic sea ice is growing!
It's a sure thing that when Arctic sea ice hits new record lows, global warming contrarians will attempt to draw attention away from the Arctic by talking about sea ice around Antarctica. A case in point is an article that appeared in Forbes on Wednesday by James Taylor. Mr. Taylor wrote, "Antarctic sea ice set another record this past week, with the most amount of ice ever recorded on day 256 of the calendar year (September 12 of this leap year)...Amusingly, page after page of Google News results for Antarctic sea ice record show links to news articles breathlessly spreading fear and warning of calamity because Arctic sea ice recently set a 33-year low. Sea ice around one pole is shrinking while sea ice around another pole is growing. This sure sounds like a global warming crisis to me."

This analysis is highly misleading, as it ignores the fact that Antarctica has actually been warming in recent years. In fact, the oceans surrounding Antarctica have warmed faster than the global trend, and there has been accelerated melting of ocean-terminating Antarctic glaciers in recent years as a result of warmer waters eating away the glaciers. There is great concern among scientists about the stability of two glaciers in West Antarctica (the Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers) due the increase in ocean temperatures. These glaciers may suffer rapid retreats that will contribute significantly to global sea level rise.

Despite the warming going on in Antarctica, there has been a modest long-term increase in Antarctic sea ice in recent decades. So, how can more sea ice form on warmer ocean waters? As explained in an excellent article at skepticalscience.com, the reasons are complex. One reason is that the Southern Ocean consists of a layer of cold water near the surface and a layer of warmer water below. Water from the warmer layer rises up to the surface, melting sea ice. However, as air temperatures warm, the amount of rain and snowfall also increases. This freshens the surface waters, leading to a surface layer less dense than the saltier, warmer water below. The layers become more stratified and mix less. Less heat is transported upwards from the deeper, warmer layer. Hence less sea ice is melted (Zhang 2007). As the planet continues to warm, climate models predict that the growth in Antarctic sea ice will reverse, as the waters become too warm to support so much sea ice.


Figure 4. Surface air temperature over the ice-covered areas of the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica (top), and sea ice extent, observed by satellite (bottom). Image credit: (Zhang 2007).

Commentary: Earth's attic is on fire
To me, seeing the record Arctic sea ice loss of 2012 is like discovering a growing fire burning in Earth's attic. It is an emergency that requires immediate urgent attention. If you remove an area of sea ice 43% the size of the Contiguous U.S. from the ocean, it is guaranteed to have a significant impact on weather and climate. The extra heat and moisture added to the atmosphere as a result of all that open water over the pole may already be altering jet stream patterns in fall and winter, bringing an increase in extreme weather events. This year's record sea ice loss also contributed to an unprecedented melting event in Greenland. Continued sea ice loss will further increase melting from Greenland, contributing to sea level rise and storm surge damages. Global warming doubters tell us to pay attention to Earth's basement--the Antarctic--pointing out (incorrectly) that there is no fire burning there. But shouldn't we be paying attention to the steadily growing fire in our attic? The house all of humanity lives on is on fire. The fire is certain to spread, since we've ignored it for too long. It is capable of becoming a raging fire that will burn down our house, crippling civilization, unless we take swift and urgent action to combat it.

References
Funder, S. and K.H. Kjaer, 2007, "A sea-ice free Arctic Ocean?", Geophys. Res. Abstr. 9 (2007), p. 07815.

Kinnard et al., 2011, "Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years".

Walsh, J.E and W.L.Chapman, 2001, "Twentieth-century sea ice variations from observational data", Annals of Glaciology, 33, Number 1, January 2001, pp. 444-448.

Related info
Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low. September 6, 2012 blog post
Wunderground's Sea Ice page

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1009 - 959

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

Quoting HurrikanEB:
Is Nadine out of range to have a floater on her, or do they just not like her? Link

NOAA floaters are only active west of 35W. Nadine is currently at 27.0W, so...out of range.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32043
Is Nadine out of range to have a floater on her, or do they just not like her? Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
312 hrs.

Wow Atlantic looks kinda dead.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Yes, I see your point, as the bible is based on tons and tons of measurements providing hard data and understood through the most objective analysis that can be mustered.

Oh, yeah, wait, it's not. As opposed to the huge numbers of actual studies available based on scientific principles about observable and measurable evidence to provide solid support to statements about natural phenomena.

Science is nothing like faith. Faith may or may not have a place in people's lives, that's not mine to care about either way or judge especially. But science has just about nothing in common with "belief" or unsupported forms of "opinion."


So your car has a bumper sticker like that too.

Isn't that nice.

I am so excited for you.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1005. guygee
Quoting TomballTXPride:
I love how the graph below shows an immediate sharp downward right around 1979, or when Ice extent, area, and volume was first measured by orbiting satellites..../2012/kinnard_seaice1450years.jpg
You sure Tom? Because I measured the number of pixels inside the graph and I counted 458 in the horizontal scale, that corresponds to the 1450 years shown. So how many pixels did you count from the edge of the graph to come up with exactly 1979?

I think you pulled that number out of your a^H^H Hat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Fair enough. I understand what you're saying. Perhaps the more dramatic approach will work better overall. I still stand by my post though, which I have amended to make it clearer. And to make it even clearer, it's the overall effect on both believers and deniers. The fact that we've exceeded the upper bounds of what pro-AGW scientists believed is alarming, but maybe in a way causes some to question those predictions since they are now wrong. It would be better(if the data only cooperated) for the stats to be on the upper bound rather than beyond the bound....It's just my opinion, but I wouldn't be more shrill on that point. I'd just point it out and let the facts stand on their own.


I see your point. Where I think I disagree is in two places --

for one, the facts have been standing on their own for a long time -- the collapse of the ice was preceded by any number of other, somewhat less attention-grabbing signs that we were heading this way. Those have failed to create movement. Scientists or not, we're also people who live on this planet, and would generally like to see humans start to move toward recognizing that this is unlikely to go well if we don't do something about it.

I mean, the Earth doesn't really mind if a whole bunch of species die off and lots of humans starve to death or die in catastrophic floods or whatever, but I'd like to think that most of us would prefer to avoid those sorts of things to whatever degree we can.

For two -- the hardcore denial folks, they're not going to budge ever. They've got too much ideologically invested in their "opinions" for most of them to shift, and I fully expect to be watching bunches of them find creative and fascinating ways to argue that there's nothing to see here while all local weather patterns go all strange. I picture some folks standing in the middle of the floods insisting that there's no problem. It's the other folks -- the ones who aren't necessarily convinced either way, or who think it's real but don't understand the speed at which it's happening -- they're the folks that really need to hear stuff, and the facts, unfortunately, do a pretty terrible job of filtering through without being twisted and slanted by those who have formed fundamental ideologies around rejecting them.

I really don't think Dr. Masters is being unduly dramatic here at all. I think there are a whole lot of people who could use to hear actual scientists start to say, yeah, folks, it's, um, getting pretty gnarly, this observable stuff, and it's likely to have consequences we're not going to like very much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
312 hrs.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
A very powerful severe storm heading for Indianapolis.

Oh great, right toward someone my family knows well. Destructive 70mph winds and quarter size hail with this storm, stay safe anyone in it's path.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Speaking of rain in SE Florida, I note from St. Augustine's link that Ft. Pierce averages 53 inches a year as opposed to WPB's 62. Average rainfall seems to peak at or just south of the easternmost point of Florida, and then slowly decreases in both directions (NNW and SSW) from there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

The time is running out for it to happen this year, a US hit could still happen even if not a cat5.
An October storm for south Florida is not out of the question.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
As someone once said, (maybe 20 minutes or so ago) "We are both entitled to our opinions" Little did you know you would be degraded for that opinion that you were entitled to.


Yes indeed.

Good news is that global weather doesn't read what we post here or what is written in the media, it simply responds.

No bias... no slanted response, simply a its response.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A very powerful severe storm heading for Indianapolis.


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
621 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN FOUNTAIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHWESTERN HENDRICKS COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHEASTERN PARKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 620 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CRAWFORDSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...
NEW MARKET...
LADOGA...
NEW ROSS...
NORTH SALEM...
JAMESTOWN...
ADVANCE...
LIZTON...
PITTSBORO...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 139 AND 140.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 37 AND 61.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4008 8716 4005 8647 3984 8646 3985 8669
3987 8669 3987 8719
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 274DEG 47KT 3998 8705
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cat5hit:
Chances are getting better and better that CONUS will not see my namesake or a Cat 5 Hit...


The time is running out for it to happen this year, a US hit could still happen even if not a cat5.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L is running out of time to develop and doesn't have a good shot anymore. It will hit cooler waters and interact with fronts in the next couple days. If 94L is going to develop it would need to start organizing pretty quickly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LesBonsTemps:


To nitpick, the word you want is "uninterested." "Disinterested," properly used, means "objective," as in, "The case should be argued in front of a disinterested third party."
non-Potable water, or non-drinkable water
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93E is getting better organized and should become a tropical depression in the next day or so. It is a large storm and it could possibly affect the Baja of California.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JNCali:
Q: What do you call a disinterested sponge?
A: Aloofa


To nitpick, the word you want is "uninterested." "Disinterested," properly used, means "objective," as in, "The case should be argued in front of a disinterested third party."

A disinterested person is one who does not have a reason to support one side over the other.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clamshell:


You and your comments remind me of those bumper stickers from a long time ago.

The bible says it, I believe it and that is all there is to it.

Substitute 'AGW scientists' where the word 'bible' is and it belongs stuck to your bumper for sure.


As someone once said, (maybe 20 minutes or so ago) "We are both entitled to our opinions" Little did you know you would be degraded for that opinion that you were entitled to.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clamshell:


You and your comments remind me of those bumper stickers from a long time ago.

The bible says it, I believe it and that is all there is to it.

Substitute 'AGW scientists' where the word 'bible' is and it belongs stuck to your bumper for sure.




Yes, I see your point, as the bible is based on tons and tons of measurements providing hard data and understood through the most objective analysis that can be mustered.

Oh, yeah, wait, it's not. As opposed to the huge numbers of actual studies available based on scientific principles about observable and measurable evidence to provide solid support to statements about natural phenomena.

Science is nothing like faith. Faith may or may not have a place in people's lives, that's not mine to care about either way or judge especially. But science has just about nothing in common with "belief" or unsupported forms of "opinion."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


A lot of scientists, usually not actually known for strong expressions without caveats, are hitting a whole new level of extreme concern this year. Expect to see a lot more of it, and not just from Dr. Masters.

The melt this year has been jaw dropping and it has been unprecedented in record. The idea that somehow it won't have absolutely huge effects on the rest of the northern hemisphere's weather patterns is really amazingly bizarre to me.

There's a lot more cause to express concern this year than there ever has been before. What I'm seeing in a big chunk of the scientific community is about as near panic as scientists tend to get, to be honest with you.

And frankly, given that Dr. Masters is, you know, directly engaged with this stuff on a scientific level every day, and that this is his blog where he will post whatever he thinks about with whatever tone based on what he's seeing in the data, I found that particular comment to be pretty stand-out arrogant myself.

If folks like Jeff Masters are starting to really sound the alarm, I suggest more people bother to pay attention instead of lecturing him on his "dramatic" tone. It's not like the guy got his phd from a crackerjack box.
Fair enough. I understand what you're saying. Perhaps the more dramatic approach will work better overall. I still stand by my post though, which I have amended to make it clearer. And to make it even clearer, it's the overall effect on both believers and deniers. The fact that we've exceeded the upper bounds of what pro-AGW scientists believed is alarming, but maybe in a way causes some to question those predictions since they are now wrong. It would be better(if the data only cooperated) for the stats to be on the upper bound rather than beyond the bound....It's just my opinion, but I wouldn't be more shrill on that point. I'd just point it out and let the facts stand on their own.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jelawat will likely become the season's eleventh typhoon overnight. The storm should peak on Tuesday as a super typhoon with winds in excess of 135 mph.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32043
Quoting Neapolitan:
We are certainly both entitled to our opinions. But, this being a science-based public forum and all, anyone voluntarily choosing to express an opinion on an issue of science here needs to accept that that opinion may be responded to and, sometimes, challenged. That's how real science gets done.

BTW, I have to ask. You came here to Dr. Masters' forum and posted the following a while ago:
Masters sounds a little dramatic to me.
On the scale of arrogance, where would you rank that comment?


You and your comments remind me of those bumper stickers from a long time ago.

The bible says it, I believe it and that is all there is to it.

Substitute 'AGW scientists' where the word 'bible' is and it belongs stuck to your bumper for sure.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Q: What do you call a disinterested sponge?
A: Aloofa
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txjac:



I know that one thing that can be done ...In Texas as well as other states all vehicles are required to pass inspection.

However, the big semi's and the large trucks used for hauling aren required to be inspected as that cost of those types of repairs are more expensive than car repairs

That's unfair

They are the ones belching the black smoke! How bout those school buses ...ton's of smoke from them too! And no seat belts for the kids??? Makes no sense.

These large trucks and semi's should be required to pass the same type of emissions test that my families cars have to


I think I agree in principle -- what level of emissions are reasonable for something that large, I don't know, as I'm nothing like a mechanic or engineer there. I also don't know a lot about the trucking industry. I do know that school districts are strapped, so that kind of change would have to be funded better, which I would definitely support.

I don't know where the line should be for emissions from hauling, but it should be there and it should be pretty tight within whatever is reasonable for the engines. I could also see some help going to independent truckers to retrofit or buy more efficient rigs for that, in theory.

I'd also actually really like to see trains get used more for longer haul stuff. They've got their own issues, but they're far more efficient than hauling the same amount of stuff via a bazillion different long haul trucks. Transportation of goods is a pretty major issue, IMO, so ideas for doing it with lower emissions are really important, thanks for bringing that up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I see the next seed of trouble crossing out of the caribbean into the eastern Pacific.I think that is the one the euro develops?.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z GFS 132 hrs. Nadine caught under the ridge and moving west now.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Nah...it seem pretty reasonable to me that Nadine became subtropical....LOL

After all...its happened before with the example storms we are pullin up....

Yeah it has happened before but not often. She is interesting to forecast and every storm has taught me something new this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53838
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

As MA said last night, I bet you'll take it a bit more seriously when it's a super typhoon and barreling towards land.

First you quoted the wrong thing but I know what you mean. I remember that and I will take it more seriously, just now is not that time but if you try again later then you will have a different result.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

Hey NC09, not only has it clouded up but rain is almost here and it will get pretty cool after the front passes.


I was thinking that Nadine would turn extra-tropical not subtropical, she is doing whatever she wants.


Nah...it seem pretty reasonable to me that Nadine became subtropical....LOL

After all...its happened before with the example storms we are pullin up....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Found this interesting, to say the least.

Newfound 'super Earth' may support life
Oh yes I remember reading that a few months ago like back in April.they wanted to send more missions there to see if Life existed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
I've looked around and it seems only 3 storms have done a transition from tropical to subtropical. They are Hurricane Klaus(1984), Allison, and Lee. Klaus also moved the wrong way, in a way, in the NE Caribbean.


As MA said last night, I bet you'll take it a bit more seriously when it's a super typhoon and barreling towards land.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32043
To keep you guys from sleeping, Nassau is reporting West winds of 10mph... plus... the radar loops are showing banding features with this small disturbance in my area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Found this interesting, to say the least.

Newfound 'super Earth' may support life
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32043
973. txjac
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


A lot of scientists, usually not actually known for strong expressions without caveats, are hitting a whole new level of extreme concern this year. Expect to see a lot more of it, and not just from Dr. Masters.

The melt this year has been jaw dropping and it has been unprecedented in record. The idea that somehow it won't have absolutely huge effects on the rest of the northern hemisphere's weather patterns is really amazingly bizarre to me.

There's a lot more cause to express concern this year than there ever has been before. What I'm seeing in a big chunk of the scientific community is about as near panic as scientists tend to get, to be honest with you.

And frankly, given that Dr. Masters is, you know, directly engaged with this stuff on a scientific level every day, and that this is his blog where he will post whatever he thinks about with whatever tone based on what he's seeing in the data, I found that particular comment to be pretty stand-out arrogant myself.

If folks like Jeff Masters are starting to really sound the alarm, I suggest more people bother to pay attention instead of lecturing him on his "dramatic" tone. It's not like the guy got his phd from a crackerjack box.



I know that one thing that can be done ...In Texas as well as other states all vehicles are required to pass inspection.

However, the big semi's and the large trucks used for hauling aren required to be inspected as that cost of those types of repairs are more expensive than car repairs

That's unfair

They are the ones belching the black smoke! How bout those school buses ...ton's of smoke from them too! And no seat belts for the kids??? Makes no sense.

These large trucks and semi's should be required to pass the same type of emissions test that my families cars have to
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
At this point we can use a storm in the Caribbean, so the climate change argument can take a back seat.
Quoting ncstorm:
I really hope this blog topic dosent stay up through the weekend..I get tired of reading the climate change arguments because thats all they ever are..
Don't say that you deniers!.I just can't take them serious when they go on a name calling spree though.It get's ridiculous that people that are against them are deniers.Lol J/K(about calling you to deniers).But seriously though that's one reason I've stayed away from here most of the day.

One person that likes to talk about AGW was a pilot.Don't planes contribute to GW as well with all the fumes they put in the air?.It sure was said yesterday on the blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting dabirds:
940) Missing ILwthr again,though. Watch out IN.

Oh, welcome back Carp! 5 innings in first start this year, in position to get win as Cards beating Cubbies at Wrigley! Saw his last start live - Game 7 of '11 WS!


It's blowing up right on top of me actually just got some pea sized hail here breifly with hardly any rain. Kinda strange.





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

But what can we do? For example I save electricity by using CFL bulbs...and barely using electornics when I don't need them...etc...etc. My bill is low enough that my utility only nees to bill me once every 2 months...

Plus...there are initiatives out there for alterantive energy...etc...etc...etc...what more can we do?


As individuals, some of us are already doing a lot, and some others aren't yet. Some folks who aren't doing much are struggling as it is and can't afford the investments or changes that would help. Others just don't take it seriously or don't care. Neither of those two groups will just change -- the first because they can't easily, and the second won't life a finger unless you force them to. And this is not the kind of thing where the people already doing what they can are enough to deal with the scale of change we need. Add to that that industry generally will use whatever energy sources are cheapest, as they try to reduce input costs, so they will continue to focus on oil/coal/gas in production and so on until either they're regulated away from that or alternative energy is vastly more available and cheaper than is currently the case.

The point at this point is that we need larger scale changes also -- policy changes, e.g. that could really kickstart more alternatives and faster, help way more people in that first group afford to change stuff in meaningful ways, and start moving _away_ from the constant fossil fuel train that we have built our entire economy around.

Please note that _nowhere here_ am I trying to get into some kind of partisan political debate. I think there's a lot to yet be worked out on how to get there from here, and I'm vastly less interested in parties here (which is always awfully US-centric anyway) than I am in various policy ideas. I do reject the idea that we can get anywhere without policy changes, as outlined in my first paragraph, though I understand why that bothers so many people.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StAugustineFL:


I use this site for precip averages. It shows average annual rainfall for selected Florida cities.

Link

Here in St Augustine the average annual rainfall is 49.01" and I've recorded 54.93" YTD. It's been all or nothing however as 19.82" fell in June and another 18.6" in August.



Apparently West Palm Beach had a yearly total of over 106 inches in 1947

Link




Here too, rainfall has been feast or famine. However it seems that often is the case in subtropical regions. The year to date was a pitiful 6 inches January through May. June through all of September so far:42 inches!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7441
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

How's it going WXchaser97. Its clouded up around here in Detroit...wasn't expecting that...

Here are some things that told me she would become subtropical (quote from a blog post I made this morning)....

"Nadine has actually slightly strengthened in the last 24 hours...which I diagnose is due to supportive divergence directly over Nadine (supplied by east side of paragraph P3 upper trough)...and supportive divergence just NE of Nadine (supplied by east side of upper trough over Nadine which has recently amplfied further into an upper vortex). With Nadine in the last day not showing upper anticyclonic outflow in the 200 mb wind barbs in the above atmo birdseye chart...nor showing cirrus outflow clouds on satellite...this indicates to me a shallower warm core system that is supported by divergence from cold core upper troughs (i.e. a subtropical storm)."

Hey NC09, not only has it clouded up but rain is almost here and it will get pretty cool after the front passes.


I was thinking that Nadine would turn extra-tropical not subtropical, she is doing whatever she wants.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
I really hope this blog topic dosent stay up through the weekend..I get tired of reading the climate change arguments because thats all they ever are..
At this point we can use a storm in the Caribbean, so the climate change argument can take a back seat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Steering for Cat3 or higher.Let's hope there is no cat3 in Caribbean for any time soon.

Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1931
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I try to avoid these normally fruitless debates on the subject(changing one from a denier to a believer, or vice-versa, doesn't happen that much if at all in any way that measurably matters), but I just have to say that I took it as constructive criticism. I share the thought. I felt the same way. And I do like Jeff's blogs on the subject and he knows how I personally feel about AGW. I did particularly like this blog, but I did come away feeling that there was a difference for sure in the exact wording he used in this blog. More expressive of his concern of the immediecy/urgency of the situation.


A lot of scientists, usually not actually known for strong expressions without caveats, are hitting a whole new level of extreme concern this year. Expect to see a lot more of it, and not just from Dr. Masters.

The melt this year has been jaw dropping and it has been unprecedented in record. The idea that somehow it won't have absolutely huge effects on the rest of the northern hemisphere's weather patterns is really amazingly bizarre to me.

There's a lot more cause to express concern this year than there ever has been before. What I'm seeing in a big chunk of the scientific community is about as near panic as scientists tend to get, to be honest with you.

And frankly, given that Dr. Masters is, you know, directly engaged with this stuff on a scientific level every day, and that this is his blog where he will post whatever he thinks about with whatever tone based on what he's seeing in the data, I found that particular comment to be pretty stand-out arrogant myself.

If folks like Jeff Masters are starting to really sound the alarm, I suggest more people bother to pay attention instead of lecturing him on his "dramatic" tone. It's not like the guy got his phd from a crackerjack box.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jelawat, I can't take that name too seriously.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I really hope this blog topic dosent stay up through the weekend..I get tired of reading the climate change arguments because thats all they ever are..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've looked around and it seems only 3 storms have done a transition from tropical to subtropical. They are Hurricane Klaus(1984), Allison, and Lee. Klaus also moved the wrong way, in a way, in the NE Caribbean.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I try to avoid these normally fruitless debates on the subject(changing one from a denier to a believer in the comment section, or vice-versa, doesn't happen that much if at all in any way that measurably matters, imo), but I just have to say that I took it as constructive criticism. I share the thought. I felt the same way. And I do like Jeff's blogs on the subject and he knows how I personally feel about AGW. I did particularly like this blog, but I did come away feeling that there was a difference for sure in the exact wording he used in this blog. More expressive of his concern of the immediecy/urgency of the situation.

But what can we do? For example I save electricity by using CFL bulbs...and barely using electornics when I don't need them...etc...etc. My bill is low enough that my utility only nees to bill me once every 2 months...

Plus...there are initiatives out there for alterantive energy...etc...etc...etc...what more can we do?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
We are certainly both entitled to our opinions. But, this being a science-based public forum and all, anyone voluntarily choosing to express an opinion on an issue of science here needs to accept that that opinion may be responded to and, sometimes, challenged. That's how real science gets done.

BTW, I have to ask. You came here to Dr. Masters' forum and posted the following a while ago:
Masters sounds a little dramatic to me.
On the scale of arrogance, where would you rank that comment?
LOL. Thats arrogant? Your grasping now. Thats an opinion. I'm not telling you that it's a fact he was being a little dramatic and everyone should believe it. I'm just saying i thought he was.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yes...I believe too this is the first to be operationally downgraded from tropical to subtropical....

Storms in post-season analsyis that were downgraded:

Lee 2011...Gordon 1994...and Allison 2001...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1009 - 959

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
74 °F
Partly Cloudy