Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on September 20, 2012

Share this Blog
67
+

The extraordinary decline in Arctic sea ice during 2012 is finally over. Sea ice extent bottomed out on September 16, announced scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) on Wednesday. The sea ice extent fell to 3.41 million square kilometers, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that this year's weather was cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during this year's minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the Contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean."


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice reached its minimum on September 16, 2012, and was at its lowest extent since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

When was the last time the Arctic was this ice-free?
We can be confident that the Arctic did not see the kind of melting observed in 2012 going back over a century, as we have detailed ice edge records from ships (Walsh and Chapman, 2001). It is very unlikely the Northwest Passage was open between 1497 and 1900, since this spanned a cold period in the northern latitudes known as "The Little Ice Age". Ships periodically attempted the Passage and were foiled during this period. Research by Kinnard et al. (2011) shows that the Arctic ice melt in the past few decades is unprecedented for at least the past 1,450 years. We may have to go back to at least 4,000 B.C. to find the last time so little summer ice was present in the Arctic. Funder and Kjaer (2007) found extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coast, which suggested the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in the summer for over 1,000 years between 6,000 - 8,500 years ago, when Earth's orbital variations brought more sunlight to the Arctic in summer than at present. Prior to that, the next likely time was during the last inter-glacial period, 120,000 years ago. Arctic temperatures then were 2 - 3°C higher than present-day temperatures, and sea levels were 4 - 6 meters higher.


Figure 2. Year-averaged and 3-month averaged Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent from Chapman and Walsh (2001), as updated by the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. I've updated their graph to include 2011 plus the first 9 months of 2012.


Figure 3. Late summer Arctic sea ice extent over the past 1,450 years reconstructed from proxy data by Kinnard et al.'s 2011 paper, Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years. The solid pink line is a smoothed 40-year average, and the light pink areas shows a 95% confidence interval.  Note that the modern observational data in this figure extend through 2008, though the extent is not as low as the current annual data due to the 40-year smoothing. More commentary on this graph is available at skepticalscience.com.

When will the Arctic be ice-free in summer?
So, when will Santa's Workshop need to be retrofitted with pontoons to avoid sinking to the bottom of the Arctic Ocean in summer? It's hard to say, since there is a large amount of natural variability in Arctic weather patterns. Day et al. (2012) found that 5 to 31% of the changes in Arctic sea ice could be due to natural causes. However, the sea ice at the summer minimum has been declining at a rate of 12% per decade, far in excess of the worst-case scenario predicted in the 2007 IPCC report. Forecasts of an ice-free Arctic range from 20 - 30 years from now to much sooner. Just this week, Dr. Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University predicted that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within four years. A study by Stroeve et al. (2012), using the updated models being run for the 2014 IPCC report, found that "a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the next few decades is a distinct possibility." Of the 21 models considered, 2022 was the earliest date that complete Arctic sea ice occurred in September.


Video 1. A powerful storm wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover in August 2012. This visualization shows the strength and direction of the winds and their impact on the ice: the red vectors represent the fastest winds, while blue vectors stand for slower winds. According to NSIDC, the storm sped up the loss of the thin ice that appears to have been already on the verge of melting completely.Video credit: NASA.

But Antarctic sea ice is growing!
It's a sure thing that when Arctic sea ice hits new record lows, global warming contrarians will attempt to draw attention away from the Arctic by talking about sea ice around Antarctica. A case in point is an article that appeared in Forbes on Wednesday by James Taylor. Mr. Taylor wrote, "Antarctic sea ice set another record this past week, with the most amount of ice ever recorded on day 256 of the calendar year (September 12 of this leap year)...Amusingly, page after page of Google News results for Antarctic sea ice record show links to news articles breathlessly spreading fear and warning of calamity because Arctic sea ice recently set a 33-year low. Sea ice around one pole is shrinking while sea ice around another pole is growing. This sure sounds like a global warming crisis to me."

This analysis is highly misleading, as it ignores the fact that Antarctica has actually been warming in recent years. In fact, the oceans surrounding Antarctica have warmed faster than the global trend, and there has been accelerated melting of ocean-terminating Antarctic glaciers in recent years as a result of warmer waters eating away the glaciers. There is great concern among scientists about the stability of two glaciers in West Antarctica (the Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers) due the increase in ocean temperatures. These glaciers may suffer rapid retreats that will contribute significantly to global sea level rise.

Despite the warming going on in Antarctica, there has been a modest long-term increase in Antarctic sea ice in recent decades. So, how can more sea ice form on warmer ocean waters? As explained in an excellent article at skepticalscience.com, the reasons are complex. One reason is that the Southern Ocean consists of a layer of cold water near the surface and a layer of warmer water below. Water from the warmer layer rises up to the surface, melting sea ice. However, as air temperatures warm, the amount of rain and snowfall also increases. This freshens the surface waters, leading to a surface layer less dense than the saltier, warmer water below. The layers become more stratified and mix less. Less heat is transported upwards from the deeper, warmer layer. Hence less sea ice is melted (Zhang 2007). As the planet continues to warm, climate models predict that the growth in Antarctic sea ice will reverse, as the waters become too warm to support so much sea ice.


Figure 4. Surface air temperature over the ice-covered areas of the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica (top), and sea ice extent, observed by satellite (bottom). Image credit: (Zhang 2007).

Commentary: Earth's attic is on fire
To me, seeing the record Arctic sea ice loss of 2012 is like discovering a growing fire burning in Earth's attic. It is an emergency that requires immediate urgent attention. If you remove an area of sea ice 43% the size of the Contiguous U.S. from the ocean, it is guaranteed to have a significant impact on weather and climate. The extra heat and moisture added to the atmosphere as a result of all that open water over the pole may already be altering jet stream patterns in fall and winter, bringing an increase in extreme weather events. This year's record sea ice loss also contributed to an unprecedented melting event in Greenland. Continued sea ice loss will further increase melting from Greenland, contributing to sea level rise and storm surge damages. Global warming doubters tell us to pay attention to Earth's basement--the Antarctic--pointing out (incorrectly) that there is no fire burning there. But shouldn't we be paying attention to the steadily growing fire in our attic? The house all of humanity lives on is on fire. The fire is certain to spread, since we've ignored it for too long. It is capable of becoming a raging fire that will burn down our house, crippling civilization, unless we take swift and urgent action to combat it.

References
Funder, S. and K.H. Kjaer, 2007, "A sea-ice free Arctic Ocean?", Geophys. Res. Abstr. 9 (2007), p. 07815.

Kinnard et al., 2011, "Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years".

Walsh, J.E and W.L.Chapman, 2001, "Twentieth-century sea ice variations from observational data", Annals of Glaciology, 33, Number 1, January 2001, pp. 444-448.

Related info
Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low. September 6, 2012 blog post
Wunderground's Sea Ice page

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1059 - 1009

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

1059. LargoFl
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Always a good thing when we don't have a monster hurricane off our coast.

Hugo:



Long Island Express:

600 people died in that long island express storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Always a good thing when we don't have a monster hurricane off our coast.

Hugo:



Long Island Express:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Well according to the GFS MJO forecast the MJO is not expected to return until the 5th at the earliest, while the Empirical Wave Projection shows the MJO returning around the 15th, so I think there is still time to get our Caribbean storm. Keep in mind Rina didn't form until Oct. 23rd last year and conditions weren't all that optimal, especially in the GOM where the air was dry as dust. We'll need to watch how the wind shear behaves in the next couple of weeks to know if we will actually get any development in the SW Caribbean or not.


If something gets favorable upper enviroment conditions in the Western Caribbean,it can bomb with this very high TCHP.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
Quoting LargoFl:
ty..it went from 60% this morning now down to 20%..the canadians will be happy to see this.

Effects will be the same regardless.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
1055. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Facility:
Neumayer Station III
northeast City: Neumayer Station
Country: Antarctica
Coordinates: -70.650000 / -8.250000



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
1054. LargoFl
not a drop of rain by me so far..............
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1053. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
712 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172 >174-GMZ656-657-676-
221100-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
712 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FLOODING: ISOLATED STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS IS POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE ISOLATED STREET FLOODING AND
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE EAST
COAST BEACHES AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$

GREGORIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1052. LargoFl
Quoting wxchaser97:
94L is down to 20% chance.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS LESS CONDUCIVE
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
ty..it went from 60% this morning now down to 20%..the canadians will be happy to see this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L is down to 20% chance.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS LESS CONDUCIVE
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
1050. LargoFl
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
718 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

FLC083-220115-
/O.NEW.KJAX.FA.Y.0134.120921T2318Z-120922T0115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MARION FL-
718 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
EASTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SALT SPRINGS...LYNNE...JUNIPER
SPRINGS...FORT MCCOY...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

* AT 717 PM EDT WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SLOW MOVING
HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF MARION COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS
OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR WERE BEING ESTIMATED BY DOPPLER RADAR WITHIN
HEAVIER ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR ANY UPDATES OR FLOOD WARNINGS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

&&

LAT...LON 2899 8217 2941 8206 2950 8194 2934 8169
2918 8165 2896 8166

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1049. LargoFl

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
730 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
HANCOCK COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

* AT 725 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF NOBLESVILLE TO FISHERS TO INDIANAPOLIS...AND
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANDERSON...
LAWRENCE...
GREENFIELD...
WARREN PARK...
MCCORDSVILLE...
CUMBERLAND...
FORTVILLE...
LAPEL...
INGALLS...
SPRING LAKE...
PENDLETON...
EDGEWOOD...
RIVER FOREST...
WOODLAWN HEIGHTS...
COUNTRY CLUB HEIGHTS...
MARKLEVILLE...
WILKINSON...
SHIRLEY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 111 AND 115.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 69 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 29.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 79 AND 112.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.



LAT...LON 4016 8562 4001 8557 3987 8558 3987 8560
3981 8559 3979 8560 3978 8563 3972 8563
3975 8619 3993 8610 4016 8610
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 272DEG 36KT 4013 8598 3993 8597
3979 8604
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.75IN



RYAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1048. guygee
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
PLAYBOY BUNNY BEING DROWNED OUT BY RISING SEAS
Nice Snark...shoulda known.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3143
1047. LargoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting guygee:


Good points, I always thought of "tragedy of the commons" as applying to property held or being used publicly, but your definition is broader and I am sure more applicable to the practical world. Since this blog is about climate I do not see how expanding a little on your field of expertise would be off-topic...it sounds very interesting to me.


You're totally right, too, that in the harder line sense and in the legal sense, it would apply to publicly owned resources, yes, though even the legal stuff gets a bit muddy in some places. The dust bowl is actually one of the big times in history in which it became clear that the consequences of not viewing "resources" more broadly as a public good could have catastrophic results to many individuals regardless of their own actions on their own lands -- i.e. even if Farmer Bob had done what was needed for erosion control, if none of his neighbors had made those investments or done their crop rotations properly, his consequences were the same as theirs, and the impact to all near term "resource extraction" in the area was severe for the whole of the public.

The longer term health of the soil increasingly became viewed via the Soil Service as a sort of public good even when the space was privately owned -- resources overall, including soil resources, started to be viewed within a framework of sustainable use around the ideas involved in preserving the commons -- leading to various regulations etc. even on private land.

I think a lot of people don't realize is that early conservation science was exactly about finding and maintaining a level of resource use for human gain that could mean continued resource use for the longer term -- _classical_ conservation, built almost entirely around the principles in the whole commons gig and maximizing use of natural resources in the longer term. The dust bowl involved expanding an understanding of _national_ resources to include soils, and to include private lands as more connected to overall sustainability of resource use.

Things have changed since then -- we figured out that, um, shooting all of the predators in Kaibab Nat'l Forest was neither very smart nor something that would increase "use" of deer once they all ate themselves to death, and goals have shifted some since ethics have changed and since ecology has learned stuff -- but pretty much everything from the creation of the Soil Service and resource regulations at all, to the National Forests and BLM, is sort of originally hinged on the ideas in that particular parable.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1045. LargoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 21 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS LOW COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
1043. LargoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1042. LargoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
PLAYBOY BUNNY BEING DROWNED OUT BY RISING SEAS

Analysis by Jennifer Viegas
Fri Sep 21, 2012 02:37 PM ET


A rabbit named after Playboy publishing magnate Hugh Hefner is dying out primarily due to sea level rise, a new study concludes.

The Lower Keys marsh rabbit, known to scientists as Sylvilagus palustris hefneri, is medium-sized with dark brown fur and a gray-white belly.

Scientists were surprised to find out what's been lowering the population counts for this real Playboy bunny.

"We kind of look at sea level rise as this problem that's just starting, something that is going to be a real problem for conservation in the future. But what we're showing here is that it's already a problem," University of Florida researcher Robert McCleery said in a press release. "We're not saying that development doesn't have an impact, but sea level rise is undoubtedly the main culprit and development helps exacerbate it."

The findings are published in Global Change Biology.

...
http://news.discovery.com/animals/playboy-bunny-n early-drowns-out-due-to-sea-level-rise.html

Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5999
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Nothing so far developing on the operational models in the climotologic favored Western Caribbean in October. Will that change soon in next runs?
Well according to the GFS MJO forecast the MJO is not expected to return until the 5th at the earliest, while the Empirical Wave Projection shows the MJO returning around the 15th, so I think there is still time to get our Caribbean storm. Keep in mind Rina didn't form until Oct. 23rd last year and conditions weren't all that optimal, especially in the GOM where the air was dry as dust. We'll need to watch how the wind shear behaves in the next couple of weeks to know if we will actually get any development in the SW Caribbean or not.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1039. LargoFl
Quoting guygee:
It had been gently rain here in Satellite Beach FL for the past couple of hours, with an occasional cloud-to-cloud lightning strike, but we just got a big cloud-to-ground strike very close by and now it is pouring down rain.
some big storms crossing the state now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ILwthrfan:


It's blowing up right on top of me actually just got some pea sized hail here breifly with hardly any rain. Kinda strange.







Cold air aloft and low atmospheric moisture.Where I live Ive only seen pea sized hail when the rainfall rate is 3 to 4 inches an hour, lol.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7310
1037. guygee
It had been gently rain here in Satellite Beach FL for the past couple of hours, with an occasional cloud-to-cloud lightning strike, but we just got a big cloud-to-ground strike very close by and now it is pouring down rain.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3143
Quoting Ameister12:
I-465 (W) & 71st Street, Indianapolis. Scary looking shelf cloud.


And now it's pouring.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
End of the GFS run, I counted 2 tropical storms forming off of fronts.



Nothing so far developing on the operational models in the climotologic favored Western Caribbean in October. Will that change soon in next runs?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
1034. guygee
-
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3143
I-465 (W) & 71st Street, Indianapolis. Scary looking shelf cloud.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1032. sheople
Link

Interesting, I am an artist, have been a programmer, building engineer, stationary engineer, luthier, metal worker, scratch golfer, gardener, anyway I also have never gone to college to learn all these things. Been more of a that's how I feel about it kind of person, do my own research come to my own conclusions. It has treated me well all these years. I have had many very intelligent people call me and ask me to fix something that I consider just common sense however they have no idea which end of a screwdriver is the working end. We all have our talents, we are all artists in our own right. But every now and then we have to depend on someone else to help us through our challenges in life. Degree or no degree it makes no difference.

There are some very smart people on this blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ha, "National Resource Conservation _Service_," Lurky. Long day. Too many departments and agencies and bla dee bla.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Most of the GFS ensemble members show development of some kind either in the GOM, off the East Coast, or out in the middle of the Atlantic towards the end of the run.

Link
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1029. Grothar
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


The photos are always amazing to me.

a few selected


Scary isn't it. And to think it went on for years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1028. guygee
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Agree with your overall point, but thought I'd add that in ecology and conservation science, the dust bowl is somewhat viewed within the framing of the "tragedy of the commons," and the response to it (the development of the Soil Service, now the National Resource Conservation Dept) as the collective movement based on the science of the time toward building something sustainable away from the results of individual shorter term gains.

That principle is also behind the Forest Service as an aside, and correcting for the tragedy of the commons -- each individual acting for their own rational gain against longer term sustainability for all -- is the core of scientific conservation work, historically speaking. It's why bunches of our national forests still have slogans like "land of many uses."

I could go into more detail re: the dust bowl if you want, but it's kind of far afield. This is my field, though, more or less, and the idea of protecting the commons against the long term consequences of individual rational decisions plays in pretty heavily to the dust bowl responses, though of course at the time poor understandings of erosion and crop rotation and soil depletion were big players, too, and if you get things dry _enough_ out there for long enough, we're certainly not immune from those effects even with all of our efforts.


Good points, I always thought of "tragedy of the commons" as applying to property held or being used publicly, but your definition is broader and I am sure more applicable to the practical world. Since this blog is about climate I do not see how expanding a little on your field of expertise would be off-topic...it sounds very interesting to me.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3143
1027. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
There may be a "fire in the attic" but the "basement" is frozen solid.
for now come the end of dec and the sea ice there will be nothing but a slushy mess and next to nothing by the summer peak at the end of feb
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
1026. Grothar
Quoting guygee:
Thanks Grothar.

I was thinking about some more positive feedbacks of desertification...soil salinity, loss of vegetation, reduction in evapo-transpiration. It is a vicious cycle.


Just a disinterested third party, trying to remain aloof.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Some estimates put the death toll from direct or indirect causes of the Dust Bowl era at near 25,000.


The photos are always amazing to me.

a few selected
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1024. guygee
Quoting Grothar:


Some estimates put the death toll from direct or indirect causes of the Dust Bowl era at near 25,000.
Thanks Grothar.

I was thinking about some more positive feedbacks of desertification...soil salinity, loss of vegetation, reduction in evapo-transpiration. It is a vicious cycle.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3143
End of the GFS run, I counted 2 tropical storms forming off of fronts.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting washingtonian115:
Stop you Denier!.



chuckle chuckle snort snort!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
There may be a "fire in the attic" but the "basement" is frozen solid.
Stop you Denier!.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting guygee:
I do not think it is the "tragedy of the commons" so much as desertification and overpopulation. Desertification has destroyed many civilizations, and it took a good bite out of the U.S. during the dust bowl years. Desertification has its own positive feedbacks that promote persistence including low soil moisture and loss of soil.

I have never seen any good statistics on how many people died of dust pneumonia, during the Great Depression, for example. I have only seen anecdotes, like farms buried in dunes. The government undertook a massive program to plant trees, groundcover, and to educate farmers in soil conservation. Still we are not immune to what you show in Haiti.


Agree with your overall point, but thought I'd add that in ecology and conservation science, the dust bowl is somewhat viewed within the framing of the "tragedy of the commons," and the response to it (the development of the Soil Service, now the National Resource Conservation Dept) as the collective movement based on the science of the time toward building something sustainable away from the results of individual shorter term gains.

That principle is also behind the Forest Service as an aside, and correcting for the tragedy of the commons -- each individual acting for their own rational gain against longer term sustainability for all -- is the core of scientific conservation work, historically speaking. It's why bunches of our national forests still have slogans like "land of many uses."

I could go into more detail re: the dust bowl if you want, but it's kind of far afield. This is my field, though, more or less, and the idea of protecting the commons against the long term consequences of individual rational decisions plays in pretty heavily to the dust bowl responses, though of course at the time poor understandings of erosion and crop rotation and soil depletion were big players, too, and if you get things dry _enough_ out there for long enough, we're certainly not immune from those effects even with all of our efforts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There may be a "fire in the attic" but the "basement" is frozen solid.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
do we have a new low off of SE FL???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Actually I'm ready for the Atlantic season to be done.I had my fun.Fall and winter is coming now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1016. Grothar
Quoting guygee:
I do not think it is the "tragedy of the commons" so much as desertification and overpopulation. Desertification has destroyed many civilizations, and it took a good bite out of the U.S. during the dust bowl years. Desertification has its own positive feedbacks that promote persistence including low soil moisture and loss of soil.

I have never seen any good statistics on how many people died of dust pneumonia, during the Great Depression, for example. I have only seen anecdotes, like farms buried in dunes. The government undertook a massive program to plant trees, groundcover, and to educate farmers in soil conservation. Still we are not immune to what you show in Haiti.


Some estimates put the death toll from direct or indirect causes of the Dust Bowl era at near 25,000.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clamshell:


So your car has a bumper sticker like that too.

Isn't that nice.

I am so excited for you.





Ha!

Some things on this blog really do turn into the old Monty Python "argument" sketch.

"You're wrong because you're wrong!" is not a very creative retort. Try harder.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1014. guygee
Quoting bappit:
Anyone wondering what happens with a tragedy of the commons only has to look at the forests of Haiti. [..]
I do not think it is the "tragedy of the commons" so much as desertification and overpopulation. Desertification has destroyed many civilizations, and it took a good bite out of the U.S. during the dust bowl years. Desertification has its own positive feedbacks that promote persistence including low soil moisture and loss of soil.

I have never seen any good statistics on how many people died of dust pneumonia, during the Great Depression, for example. I have only seen anecdotes, like farms buried in dunes. The government undertook a massive program to plant trees, groundcover, and to educate farmers in soil conservation. Still we are not immune to what you show in Haiti.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3143
Quoting Ameister12:
A very powerful severe storm heading for Indianapolis.


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
621 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN FOUNTAIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHWESTERN HENDRICKS COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHEASTERN PARKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 620 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CRAWFORDSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...
NEW MARKET...
LADOGA...
NEW ROSS...
NORTH SALEM...
JAMESTOWN...
ADVANCE...
LIZTON...
PITTSBORO...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 139 AND 140.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 37 AND 61.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4008 8716 4005 8647 3984 8646 3985 8669
3987 8669 3987 8719
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 274DEG 47KT 3998 8705
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

Thank you so much for pointing this out, I just told him and he is taking the necessary actions.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
Quoting washingtonian115:
Wow Atlantic looks kinda dead.
I would suspect a bit of a lull, between now and the 1st week of Oct. then for activity to pick up a little bit around the 2nd week of Oct. towards the end of that month and maybe a stragler in Nov. and then the season should be done. I wouldn't be surprised we see one more Cat. 2/3 Hurricane before the season is over.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting washingtonian115:
Wow Atlantic looks kinda dead.
Go dead
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurrikanEB:
Is Nadine out of range to have a floater on her, or do they just not like her? Link

Nadine is out of range, use this as an alternative.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
Quoting HurrikanEB:
Is Nadine out of range to have a floater on her, or do they just not like her? Link

NOAA floaters are only active west of 35W. Nadine is currently at 27.0W, so...out of range.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575

Viewing: 1059 - 1009

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
59 °F
Mostly Cloudy