Tropical Storm Nadine brushing the Azores
Tropical Storm Nadine continues to churn towards the Azores Islands at 4 mph, where tropical storm warnings are up. Nadine brought sustained winds of 32 mph, gusting to 46 mph to Horta Castelo Branco in the Azores at 1:30 pm local time, and occasional heavy rain showers have affected most of the islands today. Nadine is a very large storm, as seen on visible satellite loops, and will affect the islands for at least three more days as it treks slowly to the southeast of the islands. On Thursday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and will convert to an extratropical storm. The final fate of Nadine is very uncertain; most of models predict that the two systems will merge, and the extratropical version of Nadine will move back to the west-southwest next week, where it could potentially become a tropical storm again. However, the GFS model predicts that Nadine and the upper-level low will remain separate, and extratropical storm Nadine will go on to hit Portugal and bring much-needed rain to the region on Monday. Much of Portugal and Spain are in moderate to severe drought, according to the Global Drought Monitor from the University College London.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine brushing the Azores (at right of image) and of an extratropical storm with a 10% chance of becoming a subtropical or extratropical cyclone by Friday (center of image.)
Extratropical storm east of Bermuda may acquire tropical characteristics
A large, cold-cored extratropical storm has formed about 800 hundred miles east of Bermuda, and has the potential to develop heavy thunderstorms that will enable it to become a warm-cored subtropical or tropical storm. Wind shear is a moderate to high 10 - 25 knots, and the low has plenty of cold, dry air aloft that will slow down any transition to a tropical storm. None of the reliable models develop this system into a tropical storm, though the latest runs of the GFS model and NOGAPS model predict that the system will begin to develop a warm core at low levels over the next few days. The storm is moving west at 10 mph, and should turn to the north by this weekend and potentially affect the Canadian Maritime Provinces. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the storm a 10% chance of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone by Friday morning.
Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development through September 25.
One interesting note on Typhoon Sanba, which hit Korea on Monday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. Sanba brought heavy rains to the coast of Russia, causing street flooding in Vladivostok. The city recorded 4.37" of rain (111 mm) over a 2-day period, causing a mudslide in the city that temporarily disrupted a train connection between two local stations. As pointed out to me by Maximiliano Herrera, significant typhoons impacts are uncommon in Russia, and Sanba was the 2nd typhoon to impact Vladivostok this year. On August 29, Typhoon Bolaven brought wind gusts of up to 73 mph to Vladivostok, and the rains from the storm helped put out wildfires burning in eastern Russia.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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You're welcome, I'm happy to give you helpful resources like that.
HEAVY RAINFALL...
...WETTER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...
Not really.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012
...NADINE CONTINUES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 29.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF PICO IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU SEP 20 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Of course it does, there are some things I just don't get.
No they mean 981mb, it isn't a typo.
NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES."
Well we know the Global Hawk is out, as for the winds are the really only 50mph?
A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND GALE FORCE WINDS
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE THEREAFTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
If that is the latest run it actually puts snow in for a good part of the northern US, Link.
Here is an image showing snowfall accumulation.
Lucky them, It will happen here soon enough. I've already packed my bags and I'm flying up there today:)
Another snow drought will just mean more drought so I'm hoping for snow for that as well.
Go to school, Isaac.
Call that low confidence as environment canada says snow isn't happening. :P
Fog over Gadsden... from the ABC 33/40 SKYCAM network...
Bye everyone, I have to go to school but so does Cody:)
Have a great day and there is a thunderstorm over me right now.
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